‘Nothing Matters’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My favorite refrain these days is “Lulz. Nothing matters.” I say this not because I’ve given up hope, but because the usual recipient of this comment — Twitter liberals — are completely oblivious to The New Normal.

Trump has destroyed America. Or, at least, the America I once knew. We’re now an autocratic managed democracy, no better than Russia. If we want to change this, we’re going to have to risk things important to us in the real world, like our lives, our families and our careers. Simply making sound effects on Twitter isn’t going to cut it anymore.

MAGA-Qanon is out for blood and they’re going to stop at nothing to ensure that House Trump stays in power. They will destroy any norm, break any law, anything. They honestly don’t care about anything but maintaining power. And, remember, even in Putin’s Russia, there is the occasional big protest. But nothing changes.

The same is going to happen in the United States.

Trump could very well, at some point after he “wins” the election purge the media and Congress and or arrest Blue State governors and I simply don’t see anything happening. His supporters will cheer him on, in fact. That’s the type of person they thought they were getting in 2016, only he turned out to be an incompetent moron. But Interior Minister Bill Barr is going to fix any problems that the Russians hacking directly into our election systems doesn’t fix in advance.

Politics is dead in the United States and, really, the only issue at this point is how much Trump has to force the issue of his victory. The more difficult it comes, the more radical he’s likely to be when everything is all over with. Americans would REALLY have to shock me at this point.

All the metrics point to about 40 years of an autocratic managed democracy ahead of us. Only when the Baby Boomers finally drop dead will there be a slight chance that something might break the stranglehold House Trump has on the country. Even then, it’s going to be iffy.

I’m not a violent man. I’m a man of peace and ideas.

I’m just pointing out that the rules have changed an Twitter liberals haven’t noticed. The entire 260 year edifice of the First American Republic is no more. Trump is the state. The state is Trump.

Something pretty dramatic would have to happen — something I could never possibly predict — to prevent this absolute darkness possible scenario I can think up right now from happening.

It’s all over but the shouting.

Prove me wrong, fam.

No One Is Going To Save Us


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Someone in Europe looked at this site for about 20 minutes. I don’t know what they looked at — they were able to hide that information — but they first came in with abrupt wave of viewers from Europe and Russia, so it leads me to believe they might be connected to the Russians.

I really am pulling all of this out of my butt, but given what they were originally interested in — my talk about Russians hacking directly into our election systems as part of a quid pro quo with House Trump — it seems reasonable to assume that maybe my paranoid rants might be a bit closer to the truth than I originally realized.

But, really, the point is no one is going to save us.

The Russians are going to successfully hack into our election systems and if there are any suspicions about it happening, House Trump will simply stone wall the whole thing until after the Electors vote. After Trump is safely in his second term, he can purge the media and, by the way, fuck you.

And, honestly, there’s only one person who could possibly fuck up this perfect crime — Donald J. Trump.

He’s such a massive self-own artist that in his craven desire to absolutely win, he could very well fuck everything up at just the right moment so there is at least the illusion that we might punt the death of American democracy down the road a little bit.

But that’s really a stretch.

I mean, the moment election night is over, the clock starts ticking. And, even then, for Trump not to win outright election night, a lot of things would have to go wrong for him. So, it’s easy to imagine a situation where by the time we figure out what the Russians did with House Trump, it’s way, way, way, way WAY too late.

It’s not like the Electors are going to do anything. Though I still think human Electors are, by far, the weakest link in the entire Constitution. It’s a liberal fever dream to think Electors might have the wherewithal to change their votes if it became clear that Trump directly conspired with the Russians to rig the election. And, really, things are so fucked up in the United States that we could actually HAVE proof that happened and Trump would simply throw Rudy at the press just long enough for the Electors to vote and, by the way, fuck you.

What’s more, I don’t think Twitter liberals appreciate the harder it is for House Trump to steal the election, the more likely something akin to an actual civil war will break out. MAGA-Qanon is chomping at the bit to murder people like me and it is extremely easy to imagine a situation where things get completely out of control and the entire country implodes — leaving House Trump on top.

But the point is — we’re fucked. House Trump has won. We’re going to continue to slide into an autocratic managed democracy in fits and starts until by 2024, the very idea of a free-and-fair election will be quaint. America will be Russian and Russia will be America. Politically, we will be identical. And that doesn’t even take into account House Trump demanding a Constitutional Convention so its rule can be codified.

So, really, I would suggest you either get out of the country or start thinking how you’re going to avoid being pushed out a window. It’s very possible that MAGA-Qanon will go full Pol Pot on us and there will be American Killing fields. The process of dehumanizing liberals et al is pretty much complete. Trump will just tell the U.S. Military to stand down while MAGA-Qanon descends upon major metropolitan areas and murders everyone they don’t like –which is a lot of people.

As far as I can tell, House Trump will have Putin-levels of control over the country for at least 30-40 years. The dead hand of demographics, however, will begin to make their power a bit more untenable.

Then history will, again, wake up and we’ll see what happens next.

Maybe a 2nd Republic will be founded. Who knows.

1861 & 1933 — Two Years, Two Futures For America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely feels a though we’re in the twilight of one era and the cusp of the beginning of another. But what type of new era? It seems to me two years symbolize what may be about to happen in the United States: 1861 and 1933.

1861 — “Renewal Through The Crucible Of War
It is obvious, in hindsight, that in the years leading up to 1861, that the country was tearing itself apart. The thing we have to remember, of course, is at the time no one knew exactly what was going on or the consequences. That’s the thing about living through history — you simply don’t know how it’s going to end. It’s given a narrative after-the-fact by historians so people can understand it. At the time, it seems like just a random sequence of events. As such, if our future can be gleaned from 1860 — it would seem as though the “bad guys” are likely going to win at first and then, after considerable struggle, leadership will arise and things will get sorted out in a new way. A lot of people will die tragic deaths, but in the end, America will bounce back. Though, I suspect the First Republic’s goose is cooked given the exact set of circumstances we find ourselves in.

1933 — “A Darkness At Noon”
On the other hand, there’s this. In this historical analogy the bad guys win and that’s it. We cross the Rubicon into an autocratic managed democracy (or worse) and that’s it. The end. And the only thing that might loosen House Trump’s grip on power will be the dead hand of demographics. Once the last of the Baby Boomers finally drop dead, then the internal dynamic in Trumplandia will slowly begin to shift and something new will pop out of the rubble of what was once the United States.

I honestly don’t know which one of these years is our future. Could even be a mixture of the two. But I do know the fault lines in American politics are about to shift in a rather dramatic fashion. We should all brace ourselves for historical earthquake.

The New Normal



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have to accept that the United States is no longer a liberal democracy. We’re now identical to the autocratic managed democracy of Russia. Really, at this point, the only issue is how quickly the end of the free press comes. My guess is it will happen rather abruptly sometime in 2021.

It will all happen “legally,” in the sense that no laws will be broken, but there is going to be a shit-ton of abuse of power. A combination of threatening to take broadcaster’s licenses and an “German industrialists” will fix the problem of the so-called “fake news.” We’ll wake up and CNN will be identical to OANN. And the New York Times will be force-nationalized then spun off to Rupert Murdoch.

Once the free press is dead, then Trump will have a free reign to do whatever the fuck he wants. We simply won’t even know he did it.

By 2024 the United States and Russia will be literally identical on a political level. Throw in Trump at some point demanding a Constitutional Convention and the First Republic has fallen. We’re just in the gauzy twilight period between the fall of the First Republic and when Trumplandia is strong enough that we notice how much things suddenly suck.

Something truly extraordinary would have to happen for Trumplandia not to come into existence. And, just like with impeachment, no one and nothing is going to save us.

In passing, I will casually note that Trump a self-own artist who only continues to survive because the tribal nature of post-politics America. He has an entire edifice designed specifically to enable him. And, really, the very thing that Trump seems to long for so badly — some sort of unprecedented political violence –is the very thing that might actually hurt his dream of becoming the Dear Leader.

Once you start murdering people for political reasons — as is already beginning to happen — the traditional rules of politics stop functioning. It’s a least possible that some pretty surreal and unexpected things might happen for no other reason than Trump is so dumb that he doesn’t realize that politics is actually good for him.

Anyway, I think a lot of the angst about a civil war is going to turn out to be overwrought. Trump has half a dozen things he can use so he “wins” on election night. But, like I said, he IS a self-own artist, so it’s at least possible that if we have some sort of “civil war” happens solely because Trump is a fuck up.

All I can say is either get out of the country now or be prepared to take a side. You’re going to have to risk the things that are important to you in the real world if stay in the United States. Get out while you still can.

America’s Political System Has Collapsed


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In the strange Upside Down that is the MAGA-Qanon echochamber, Dear Leader Trump is the only thing stopping rabid Communist cannibals from turning America into a woke “cancel culture” nightmare. They totally and willfully ignore what an enormous systemic clusterfuck Trump’s rule has been and focus on that one thing — the protests occurring across the country.

That their logic is essentially, only Trump can save us from the mess Trump has directly contributed to is besides the point. Their politics is barely more than a tribalistic grunt.

It seems clear that MAGa-Qanon is chomping at the bit for the opportunity to engage in some sort of political violence, which may go so far as an actual civil war. The logic is there, that’s for sure. And Trump’s bonkers behavior on Twitter only feeds into this.

On the face of it, all the metrics indicate that if things did finally turn to wide-spread violence, that MAGA-Qanon would “win,” at least the first round. And, really, given how they will have House Trump on their side, there is every reason to believe that their first punch will be a decisive and knockout one.

And yet.

While I don’t really have much hope at this point — it definitely seems as though the “bad guys” are going to win and the country is going to implode for no other reason than the U.S. Military will not do anything to stop it (or follow Trump’s orders to put any resistance to House Trump down), I will note that history does NOT go in a straight line, especially once everyone gives up on politics and starts killing each other. (Which I most definitely DO NOT WANT.)

The case can be made — and I will make it just to make myself feel better if anything else — that to date House Trump has been so successful because they’ve been able to get everything they wanted because of the unexpected weakness of all of the norms and laws we all assumed would protect us from…someone like Trump.

Just a brief glance at history, however, will show that once the average person — who “who doesn’t have time for politics” is absolutely confronted with not politics but existential violence, all bets are off. MAGA-Qanon is extremely bloodthirsty, organize and passionate, I will give them that. But once an actual shooting civil war starts the built-in power they have because, lulz, the vast majority of people are completely indifferent to politics will be gone.

So, yes, all the metrics point to House Trump consolidating power after a brief and potentially bloody “civil war.” But. Or, put another way, it’s probably in House Trump’s best interest to do everything in its power to prevent things leaving the realm of politics and entering the Thunderdome of civil war. I feel their absolute drive for violence is potentially a major strategic miscalculation on their part.

I’m not saying everything is going to work out for the “Good Guys” if an actual shooting war starts, but, in general, violence of any sort — especially political violence — is, as Issac Asimov said, “the last resort of the incompetent.” Wars of any sort have a completely different set of metrics than politics and once they start they always, ALWAYS, take on a life of their own.

Once the threat to the population is no longer an abstract, there’s a least a small chance that things may not break MAGA-Qanon’s way in the long run.

But, really, who am I kidding.

We’re all doomed. Trumplandia is here.

Good luck.

Trump, Russia & Kanye



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We’ve passed the event horizon for Trump’s final consolidation of power. Soon enough, he will, on a political level, be a king. But it is interesting to note the details of this event as they zoom past us.

One of them is the “campaign” of Kanye West.

It seems as though, on the face of it, that House Trump wants to re-create the conditions of 2016. On one hand, there will be a third party candidate who will cut into Biden poll numbers and it’s likely that something along the lines of the Second Comey Letter will happen in late October as well.

But there is another, even darker possibility lurking in the shadows.

It seems to me that House Trump and the Russians are working hand-in-hand for the Russians to hack directly into our election systems. It would make a lot of sense for the Russians, under the cover of Kanye, to move just enough votes from Biden to Kanye so when he provides the margin of victory. This is pretty typical in some elections and so people won’t be as suspicious.

Given that there are a very specific — an well-known – set of events that happen after Election Night, it seems obvious that even if people began to grow suspicious about Russians hacking directly into our election systems, all Trump has to do is stonewall long enough for the electors to be certified and for them to vote.

Everything else is a lulz.

Trump can rapidly consolidate power on a number of different levels and by the time we all figure out what happened, AOC will be founding the Second Republic after having been in prison for 40 years. Darkness is here and, really, it’s just a matter of what shade of pitch black we have to suffer through.

All I can say is, do a gut check on what’s important to you in the real world. There’s going to come a time very, very soon when you either stand up for what you believe in and risk your life, your family or your career, or you don’t.

2021: American Implosion


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Since Trump is going to lie, cheat and steal to win the 2020 election — even to the point of inciting a civil war if need be, we need to start assessing what Trump’s second term is going to be like.

In a word: dark.

It seems to me that given macro trends, it’s not Hitler’s Germany we should be thinking about so much as Pol Pot’s Cambodia. Given the “America First” ideology of House Trump, it makes a lot more sense that the country would implode like Cambodia rather than try to take over the world.

As such, it seems as though something like this may happen — Trump does whatever he has to do to consolidate power, starting with a purge of the media. Then as MAGA and Qanon become indistinguishable, it seems as though what might start off as a general effort to eliminate all opposition to House Trump in the elites will quickly devolve into a general effort to answer the “liberal question” once and for all.

So, it’s not too much to imagine a situation where the U.S. Military is ordered to stand down while bloodthirsty Qanon people organize an emptying of the cities and we end up with American Killing Fields.

This is all so speculative on my part that it’s difficult to imagine of that might end. In the case of Pol Pot, he went so insane that he was felled with a combination of internal rebellion and an invasion. I can’t really see anyone invading the United States, so either the implosion is a complete success and a 10s of millions of people are butchered, or things just to extreme that some sort of counter-action is finally taken and the whole thing comes tumbling down.

Not before, of course, the United States is turned into a 1st world version of modern Cambodia.

The point of all of this is we’ve now entered one of those rare times in human history when the bad guys get their chance to do their thing and only, after way too long, do the good guys get their act together to do anything about it.

I will note that in post-WW2 Eastern Europe, the bad guys won for about 40 years. So there are absolutely no assurances that when the implosion most — if not all — of its goals are acomplished.

Trump: American Norodom Sihanouk


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There has been a lot of hysterical talk on the part of the center-Left that Trump is some sort of “American Hitler.” And I will be the first to admit that I have engaged in a lot of that talk myself. MAGA people chuckle at this and simply grunt something about “orange man bad” in reply.

Well, I used to think that maybe Trump himself wouldn’t be an American Hitler, but it would be one of his younger, more organized successors.

I’m beginning to doubt that assesement.

The reason is: Qanon.

It’s very easy to see a situation where Trump consolidates power after the Russians steal the election for him and ultimately the worst crimes don’t even happen because of him. It would be a situation similar to King Norodom Sihanouk in Cambodia.

Once OANN owns CNN and The New York Times has been nationalized and then given to Rupert Murdoch (and so forth) there simply won’t be anyone to notice that MAGA and Qanon have fused and they’re rounding people up to be murdered in American Killing Fields.

What’s more, the U.S. Military will be so concerned with not interfering in domestic politics that what starts off as a general attack on liberal elites turns into a mass emptying of the cities and American Killing Fields. This sounds surreal and bonkers, I know, but that’s an angle we haven’t really thought about before — Trump himself doesn’t order the American Killing Fields, but he doesn’t do anything to stop it, either.

Besides the whole mass murder thing, the other element of this that is gravely concerning is who is going to save us if this happens? It definitely seems as though once the country implodes that’s it.

I can’t think of how get out to the other side.

This is all a delusional fever nightmare at this point. But it’s definitely something to think about since apparently the fix is in when it comes to Russians hacking directly into our election systems.

Addressing Tim Pool’s ‘Asshole’ Versus ‘The Coward’ Argument



Shelt Garner

@sheltgarner

What bothers me about former Vice Magazine writer Tim Pool boiling down the debate between Trump and Biden to the political grunt of “Trump may be an asshole but Biden is a coward” is how effective it is for men who watch Joe Rogan and declare themselves “centrists.”

This argument is effective because it narrows down the strategic threat of Trump destroying the entire Republic to simply calling him “an asshole.” Meanwhile, it taps into the earnest masculinity of Joe Rogan viewers by calling Biden a “coward.”

I guess a similar 1933 situation would be something like a WWI veteran supporting Herr Hitler because he promises to re-militarize the Rhineland. It totally ignores the insane, corrupt racism of the rest of the Nazi agenda and focuses on something you agree with him on. So,in a sense, for Pool, he accepts that Trump is a outrageously corrupt racist misogynistic bigot because he’s a tough guy, a “strong man,” if you will. All the things Pool doesn’t like about Trump is baked into the cake and ignored and accepted because Pool believes Biden is a “coward.”

This allows him to ignore that Trump is actively doing everything in his power to destroy the very Republic itself. He simply focuses on one subject and one subject only — his belief that Biden is a “coward” for not addressing the riots in Wisconsin the way he thinks she should.

To me, at least, it all rather surreal.

We need to begin to accept that darkness is here. MAGA and Qanon are fused now and the ICE camps will become Trumplandia death camps soon enough. We’re simply not prepared for how brazenly Trump is going to steal the election, to the point where he encourages a civil war.

Sometimes, the bad guys win.

Barring something pretty spectacular that I can’t predict, America has passed the event horizon of tyranny. All the macro trends indicate that Trump is either going to eek out some sort of victory outright, or he’s going to burn the entire country down to win one way or another.

We are so fucked.

A Tim Pool Rebuttal


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about former Vice Magazine writer Tim Pool is his arguments for Trump are actually cogent enough to warrant a rebuttal. Pool is interesting to me because he seems like just the type of guy who would REALLY be into Joe Rogan. Anyway, he’s apparently all-in with MAGA at this point and, from his Twitter threat explaining why he’s voting for Trump rather fascist-friendly, if not fascist altogether. Let’s go through the thread a pick it apart.

He opens the thread explaining why Kyle Rittenhouse’s double murder explains why he’s voting for Trump. Now, for me, that statement in itself sets off some warning lights because it establishes he’s going to see what Rittenhouse did through the lens of partisan politics. He also makes a point of claiming the press “lied” about Trump doing something. I don’t know enough about what exactly he’s talking about, but while maybe they weren’t *literally* secret police, a lot of the violence that’s happening across the country is being sparked by the reaction of Trump’s goons more than the often otherwise peaceful protesters.

Ok, this is an extremely charitable explanation of what happened. Pool makes it seem as though some innocent waif decided to swoop in and save the day. He ignores that there are pictures of the 17 year old holding an AR-15. He’s bending over backwards to frame the situation in such a way that your average Joe Rogan audience member will nod their head in agreement. The following tweet is probably his strongest argument in the thread:

I will give him this point. Biden should definitely be more proactive condemning the violence taking place. And, yet, to me, for this to be the single issue that he is so concerned about when 180,000 people have died because of Trump’s criminally incompetent handling of the COVI19 pandemic as well as a shit ton of other criminal activity on House Trump’s part is a little bit of a tell — he was never going to vote for Biden and Biden not doing what he felt was needed was simply confirmation of his existing decision.

Here is where we get to the core of his argument and the whole thing falls apart.

To call Biden “a coward” who “hides in his basement” is straight MAGA agitprop. And given how well the whole “law and order” thing is probably polling with House Trump’s campaign right now, it makes me think Pool is no longer a journalist in an real sense. He’s completely in the pocket of House Trump and, just like Joe Rogan, he uses a form of masculine earnestness to deflect any reasonable effort to talk to him.

I compare it to someone in 1933 saying Herr Hitler is going to make the streets of the Free City of Danzig safe again. He wants us to focus on this sole issue, totally ignoring the astonishing existential threat that House Trump presents to the Republic on a strategic level. He wants to do this because as long as we focus on this specific issue, we aren’t talking about the flaming pile of horseshit that is the Trump Administration.

As such, I can only conclude that Pool is a fascist. That the Right is embracing Kyle Rittenhouse as some sort of John Brown of MAGA tells you everything you need to know about the state of American democracy. The logic is there to support wide-spread political violence against anyone who gets in the way of MAGA or Qanon.

Now, what’s even worse is the center Right and the center Left have grown so detached from each other and what they can agree is “real” that it’s nearly impossible for there to be any discussion at all. The Right has cross the Rubicon and now are full throated fascists, even though they will never admit it because they know it would hurt them politically — for the time being.

As such, this fall is going to be very dark.

I continue to believe that House Trump is never, EVER leaving power for any reason, even if it means inciting a civil war. Given Pool’s reasoning for voting for Trump, I honestly can’t imagine any situation where he wouldn’t be right there with MAGA and Qanon, cheering on the political violence that apparently he — and much of the American Right — are now cool with.

Good luck, guys.