How The Trump Era Might End Rather Dramatically On A Political Level



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Trump is never going to leave office. And, really, there’s only one scenario whereby that ever happens for any reason — Trump finally goes completely batshit insane.

But how might that play out?

Well, the key thing to look at is his poll numbers. If there was, say, a 1-2-3 punch of a pandemic, treason AND his taxes finally coming out because of a SCOTUS decision, then, well, the stress of that combined with his approval rating going down into the 20s might be enough to make him snap.

Remember, the point is unless Trump, himself, causes his downfall, he’s never leaving office. With Russian help, he’s going to steal the 2020 election in a rather brazen fashion, cruise into his second term, call for a Constitutional Convention and simply be an American Brezhnev for the next decade. I believe that’s our fate as of right now. Like, 200%.

So, really, like I said, the only way Trump DOESN’T stay in office for the next 10 years or so is, well, Trump. And he would have to do it in a rather dramatic fashion. He would have to explode, not implode, mentally. He would have to become so absolutely deranged that it was a minute-by-minute crisis.

But there’s an added complication — the 25 Amendment is a dead letter, so even if that happened, well, nothing wold happen until the election and, well, lulz, he’s going to steal that anyway, so we’d have a completely insane, deranged president until sometime in 2021 or so. By that point, of course, he will have picked his new second term veep of Tom Cotton or Zombie Hitler or whomever.

And, remember, keep this part at the forefront of your mind: at some point Trump’s political criminality and his insanity may fuse into the same thing. So he will bribe Electors. Or attack them personally on Twitter. Or demand MAGA threaten the families of any Electors who refuse to vote for him, damn the popular vote.

There’s simply no political will to do anything about this as it happens. Lulz!

But I would, however, suggest you keep any eye on his polling. Not until he’s in the 20s will there be any semblance of accountability and even then it will be far, far, far FAR too late to actually help anything.

None Dare Call It Treason #Trump



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


The issue right now is if things really are as bad as we fear when it comes to TrumpBountyGate, what are we going to do about it? There really isn’t much that can be done as best I can tell. We can’t impeach Trump again until well into his second term. He’ll never resign. He’s going to steal the election with Russian help.

So, I don’t know.

This goes back to something that is central to the Trump Era — Trump is his own worst enemy. So, really, if we have him dead to rights on this issue, the thing that causes some serious accountability to come to him for once won’t be anything but himself. He may finally flip the fuck out.

I don’t even know how that might manifest itself. I think maybe he might finally snap in a really crazy way whereby he starts to tweet out the N-Word to Obama. Or maybe he joins Tik-Tok and starts to do dances there. Things that are simply so outside the bounds of normal behavior that someone, somewhere, finally sits up and takes notice.

But I’ve been let down by Congress so many times that I honestly don’t think anything of note is going to happen. After a few days of teeth gnashing, things will gradually go back to a Trump Era level of normality.

I would keep an eye on SCOTUS and Trump’s taxes. If Trump faces not only a pandemic and accusations of treason but his taxes being forced to be released as well, then, we may, at last, be going to the show.

The Mueller Report, Trump’s Taxes & (The Potential End of) The Trump Administration



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I often wonder what would be the real consequences if we found out Castro and the Mob were directly responsible for JFK’s death. All the principals would be dead. It might be give closure, but in real terms, it would be a big meh.

The reason I think about this a lot these days is not only the possibility that much of the Mueller Report might be unredacted by a Federal judge, but the small possibility that we might, at last, see Trump’s taxes. We’re so close to the election and Trump is obviously simply going to ratfuck his way into a second term, I honestly don’t see anything of note happening if we learn the absolute worst about Trump.

I mean, if we have absolute proof that Putin has near-absolute financial control over Trump Org…would it even matter at this point? Probably not. Trump is going to have a second term, no matter what and, in real terms, Trump faces one real threat and one real threat only: himself.

The only way I see anything of significance happening to the Trump Administration going forward is if Trump finally loses his fucking mind to the point that he, say, starts a war with the DPRK or something else of similar significance.

We probably would have a few days of uncertainty if Trump’s taxes came out, but in the end, we’re just too close to the election and Trump will never resign so, lulz.

Darkness has fallen.

The Damage Is Done — Trump As Tyrant & Traitor



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


It’s now rather obvious that someone like Trump was going to appear in the 2016 – 2024 time frame, it was just a matter of whom. But it’s also clear that the damage is done.

America is no longer a Republic, it is a Russian-style “managed democracy” and there’s no going back, at least for the next 20 to 40 years when the Graying of America crosses the Browning of America.

Trump is just really, really, really bad at being an autocrat, so it’s not as obvious what’s going on. But once Tom Cotton (or whomever) succeeds Trump, the entire state will be used to destroy liberal democracy in the United States.

I don’t have any solution. This is it. The end of America. The bad guys have won. Even if Biden wins — and somehow actually is legally sworn in — it will be just a death rattle.

The most current outrage over Trump knowing about Russian bounties on US soldiers in Afghanistan is already blowing over because Trump is simply going to say he was criminally incompetent, which his base can accept, not a traitor, which his base likely can’t.

Get out while you still can.

Did Trump Kill Snark?



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I’m reading the book “The Fourth Turning” for the novel I’m developing and I can see why people like Steve Bannon like it so much. But it has got me thinking just now about other cycles in culture, outside of the political.

We are definitely in something of a funk when it comes to edgy, provocative writing and art. It happened in the 2006-2008 era for some reason. We really haven’t had good snark (or pop rock) sense then. We don’t have any popular, yet edgy pop culture to consume these days. And the case could be made that the Trump administration’s lack of shame and self-awareness has killed irony and snark for all times.

I kept expecting some punk Millennial to pick up a guitar and start writing punk songs, but that has yet to happen. I now have to hope that “Zoomers” are going to do it — that they managed to punk Trump’s asshole campaign manager Brad Pascarle is a promising sign of a possible future.

And, yet, I almost think the very ideas of “irony” and “snark” no longer are applicable in this hyper connected world. Maybe there will be no Fourth Turning. Maybe it won’t come roaring back.

Maybe irony is dead. Maybe Trump killed it.

Why Does Everything Have To Be So Dumb? #TrumpTulsaRally



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

You could not think up a worst beginning for a catastrophe. A bunch of people screaming in an enclose space for two hours, screaming at the president during a pandemic. What’s more, all of this is taking place in one of the worst-hit states in the Union.

It’s all very, very, VERY DUMB.

And, yet, here we are.

Really, all you have to do is have Trump finally snap mentally in the next few days and you pretty much have the absolute worst case scenario. But that last bit is probably going to be saved for the middle of his second term when The Kooch (or whomever) is his Veep. Someone young, organized and capable of shepherding Enabling Acts through a Constitutional Convention.

Trump is just a deranged moron who is extremely lucky.

It will, however, be interesting to see if we reach any sort of acute crisis in the coming days that throws everything out of whack as we head towards Election Day. I do know, however, that Trump is going to steal the election. Autocrats never lose, not even a very dumb one like Trump.

America As Autocracy



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Ultimately, all Trump has to do is get into his second term. It doesn’t really matter what happens after that. I believe Trump is going to either pick Ivanka as his second term veep (allowing her to pick say, Tom Cotton as VEEP for her eight year term so he can run for another eight years) or someone so insane that once he finally loses his mind we’ll really have something to cry about.

But the damage has been done, no matter what.

America is now a Russian-style “managed democracy” because of some serious macro problems that we were blind-sided by over the last three or so years. The last step is a Constitutional Convention that would rewrite the Constitution such that we’re a white-ethno state de jure, not just de facto.

The ICE Camps will be weaponized and that will be that.

Even if Biden wins and is actually sworn in, it’s just part of a broader death rattle. I’m reading a book called The Fourth Turning and pretty much exactly what it predicted 20 years ago is happening.

All I can say is, once the Browning of America and the Gray of America cross in about 20 years, we’re in for some very, very interesting times. AOC is likely to become president via a popular uprising.

This Weekend *Might* Be The Most Significant In The Trump Era



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


So, the conditions are there for this weekend being the single most significant weekend in the Trump Era. I say this because of the following:

  1. The Tulsa Rally
    Trump is having an extremely ill-advised (and, as such very on-brand) MAGA Nuremberg Rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, which is major COVID19 hotspot right now. Since no one is going to wear a mask, he’s putting not only his own life — and I think Pence! — in danger, but the lives of the 19,000 attendees in danger. We won’t know for about two weeks if this what I fear — a COVID19 strategic superspreader event.
  2. The Berman Crisis
    Meanwhile, Trump — through Attorney General Barr — is TRYING to fire a prosecutor connected to the SDNY. Right now, it’s not working. That would be some split screen to have Trump ranting at his Tulsa MAGA Rally on one side and a Saturday Night Massacre type situation on the other.

The thing about this type situation is you just never know. You never know until after the fact that it was obvious that SOMETHING BIG was going to happen. I honestly have no idea what is going to happen this weekend.

Could be nothing.

Fucking QAnon Has Taken Over The Entirety Of The Republican Party



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have one contact in the Republican Party who is usually pretty normal. He’s very conservative, but also very charismatic and generally a great guy. So when he told me the following via Facebook Messenger about what’s going to happen in the fall, I was shocked.

HIM: Electoral College scoreboard will be a 2016 repeat with a slightly larger margin for Trump. However, he will be killed soon by establishment agents.

ME: What are you talking about “killed.”

HIM: Assassinated.It will be poison or bio agent.

So, this leads me to believe that even the base of the Republican Party knows something’s wrong with Trump and they know that there’s a good chance he won’t finish his ill-gotten second term.

Still think Ivanka or some insane person is going to be Trump’s second term Veep, though. Someone far worse than Trump has ever been because they will be young, focused and actually know what they’re doing.

‘American Brezhnev’ — Something Is Wrong With Trump



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Something is wrong with Trump.

And it’s not like the usual, of COURSE there’s something wrong with Trump, either. I mean, there’s something so wrong with him he needs to step down immedately, or at least let Pence be acting president.

Or something.

But it’s a testament to how fucked up the American political system is that nothing is going to happen even though his deteriorating mental and physical state is pretty obvious for everyone to see.

So we’re stuck with stuck with an American Brezhnev. He’s simply going to doter along for the next five years destroying the Republic in a daze. (He’s never leaving office for any reason, by the way.)

I don’t have any ready answer to this problem. We’re fucked.