Tag: Fuck Neo-Confederates

America’s Surreal, Pre-Second Civil War Politics


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep writing, all things being equal, rolling political violence should begin any moment now in the United States. Red people in Blue states and Blue people in Red states should flee their homes in search of safety. This would cause the two sides to grow more radical and their state governments to harden their views of states with opposing political views.

And, yet, to date, there is no real sign that this is going to happen. Not that it won’t, but there would have to be a catalyst. What’s more it would have to be something that caused people who obviously want a revolution or civil war — like all the people from South Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas and Alabama who keep looking at this blog — to take the next step and to actually start hurting people they disagree with politically.

MAGA 2020.

It appears there’s a reason why, to date, we’ve escaped such a civil war — Trump is such an lazy opportunist that he simply doesn’t have the leadership skill to force the issue. That, and how the court system surprised us all by not playing along with MAGA’s attempted coup there.

But we’re not out of the woods yet, I’m afraid.

Between now and around April 2021, any number of random events could occur that would push us into civil war. Sorry Neo-Confederates, I just don’t see there being a right wing revolution. You might secede, but an actual Right Wing revolution based on a hatred of woke liberal-progressive cancel culture….just doesn’t seem within your ability to pull things off. You can have all the fucking guns you want, but you’re too busy sucking Trump’s cock to actually use them on anyone.

But I will give you the possibility of a secession crisis in the near future. And, yet, you would need leadership to pull that off. And the Dear Leader just isn’t up to it. If Mike Pompeo or Tom Cotton was president right now, yes, but they’re not. We got a ding-dong as president who if he does manage to start a secession crisis it will be out of a weird mixture of spite and simple blundering into the situation by accident.

America right now.

While the Proud Boys are scary, they’re not as organize or as popular as, say, the Brown or Black Shirts of the 1930s were. This could change extremely quickly, but, still, Trump is very lazy and very incompetent. He has autocratic impulses, but, to date, he just can’t follow through.

And thus we have this surreal situation where we all know a civil war may happen at any moment — like a real, honest-to-God shitshow civil war with millions dying — but because the one person who has the means, motive and opportunity to actually start it — Trump — is a lazy idiot…it’s not happening.

So, either gradually over the next few years some Man on a Horse bubbles up to the political surface and pushes us into civil war, or, well, we just kind of drift in neutral until something happens I can’t predict.

It could be that it won’t even be MAGA at all that pushes us into political violence, but it’s successor. My guess it will be some sort of radical neo-Ludditism caused by Elon Musk burning the trucking industry to the ground virtually over night.

The point is — the United States is extremely unstable right now. And it’s only going to get worse. So, it’s possible Trump leaves office peacefully and the actual civil war happens officially on Biden’s watch because something totally unexpected happens.

Why A Second American Civil War Hasn’t Started (Yet)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All things being equal, the United States is on the cusp of a hot civil war after a decade of a cold civil war. And, yet, to date, while it definitely feels like a civil war is about to happen, it has not, in fact happened. How come?

For a civil war to happen, Trump would have to finally bump up against in stark terms how Americans perceive themselves. To date, he’s simply been too much of a lazy opportunist to do something so brazen as to cause the country to implode.

And, yet, he is such a ding-dong that it’s easy to imagine a situation where as he grows more desperate to stay in office, he sort of stumbles to an act that people who voted for Biden simply can’t brook. But remember, we’re entering the Upside Down of American politics right now — if Trump doesn’t act pretty quick, he simply won’t be able to have any thin veneer of legality to lean on when he wants to use the Insurrection Act on people who oppose him.

Or, put another way, it’s growing close enough to January 20th that the U.S. Military might simply slow-walk any effort on Trump’s to take “total control.” In fact, he Trump doesn’t act by Monday when the Electors vote, the window of opportunity for him to do anything too brazen may, in fact, be closed. The American Military could easily simply ignore Trump if he went nuts on the grounds that now that the Electors have voted, they are even MORE reluctant to follow an order that might be seen, in hindsight as illegal, or at least bending the rules.

So, one could argue that if we’re going to have a Second American Civil War NOW, rather than, say, at some point in the next four years, it will happen because something really random and extraordinary happens. And, what’s more, Trump will be in the position of leading a rebellion. The moment Trump takes up arms against the Republic, then, well, that’s a pretty easy moral situation for the U.S. Military. MAGA Rebels –> BAD.

One thing that might happen is Trump and Pompeo finally manage to box Iran into a war with Israel, then they use THAT as an excuse for Trump to take “total control” while we’re all distracted. But even that is fraught with problems — the American Military, unlike the American public, can walk and chew gum and if Trump simply ignored the Constitution because we were fighting a major regional war against Iran (and maybe the DPRK, too?) they would simply depose him while it was going on.

Another reason why we haven’t had a hot civil war yet is while there has been plenty of hot air on the part of MAGA, they haven’t — to date — been willing to back it up. They would have to start blowing shit up pretty quick for it to make a difference. Though I could see, maybe, Biden’s first 100 days having significant political violence. And, yet, thankfully, MAGA-Qanon-Proud Boys have proven themselves to be just loud mouth punks.

That may change, it may not. Who knows.

It’s very possible that we’ll just drift in the Biden Administration peacefully with a sizable chunk of the Republican Party having a wait-and-see approach to if they want to destroy the United States or not.

The Dead Hand Of History: ‘A Do The Right Thing’ Ending For America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m often wrong. Like, all the time. But it definitely seems as though the Dead Hand of History is about to strike the United States at some point between now and, say, March 2021. The black goo of destruction is there, waiting to be used. All the conditions for a civil war or a revolution exist in the United States right now and it’s just a matter of some hot head somewhere flipping the switch.

Or, to put it another way — as I understand it, at the end of the movie Do The Right Thing, Mookie simply out of the blue throws a trashcan through a window, starting a riot. The same with the United States right now — something random could happen out of the blue and cause the United States to buckle in a rather spectacular fashion.

It will be a quantum leap beyond what happened with 9/11 because the center will not hold, as they say. Whatever it is, will cause political violence to roll across the country. Red people in Blue states and Blue people in Red states won’t feel safe anymore and they will flee their home. The two sides will, in turn, not only hard their political views, but grow more radical.

I could see Trump Tower — and FOX News — being seized and gutted in New York City and maybe even a Free State of NYC being established. Or something. Something whereby you have to risk your life and sacred honor specific on your political views — do you support Trump or Biden? You could die if you don’t answer correctly at the right time.

And, really, either the U.S. Military at last has to step in or even they won’t be able to do anything about it because the officers go Blue and the enlisted go Red, or even more dramatic than that with the entire U.S. Military imploding much like it did during the original Civil War.

Regardless, the point is — if we manage to punt this crisis down the road, the corrosive conditions that created this crisis aren’t going anywhere. We will simply kind of be a zombie Republic until Trump comes back in 2024 and finishes the job he started. Or it will be Tom Cotton or Mike Pompeo. Or whomever.

Or, put another way — either we address the existential problems we face now, or we face the later. But there’s no escaping them.

The Birth of Trumplandia — Political Events Are Spinning Out of Control In The United States


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

With the SCOTUS rebuff of Trump today, we’re closer to figuring out which side is going to probably secede from the Union. For a moment there, it looked like it might be Blue States.

Now, it looks like it will be Red States.

Specifically, the 19 States that joined in on the case that SCOTUS rejected today. Throw in the 126 Congressmen who supported it as well, and you have the core of a Neo-Confederate government. Though, if they were honest with themselves, they would call their new breakaway nation Trumplandia.

But we’re still not quite where we need to be to for such a thing to happen. There are a few more hoops, a few more things to go wrong for the country before we take the final plunge to disunion. One thing that has to happen is the Neo-Confederates have to put up or shut up. AND, Trump would have to adopt their cause as his own.

As it stands, he simply wants to make money and avoid going to jail in New York State. If Trump DID begin to publicly entertain the idea of a Trumplandia, then, well, that’s it. The ball is then in the United States court — it would be President Biden, not Trump would would find themselves invoking the Insurrection Act and having to decide if the Union is worth it or not. (It is.)

Help us, Lincoln….

In a way, that would be the most unexpected part of all of this — if Trump left office…only to become president of Trumplandia…then, well, wow we wow wow. That would be a rather unexpected turn of events.

But, again, he would have to embrace the idea. As it stands, he may go insane, he may start a war with the DPRK or Iran…but he has shown no signs of wanting to be the president of a rump USA. One thing that might convince him is if there was a groundswell for him to do just that.

And, remember, Trump is nothing more than a deranged ding-dong. It’s very possible he would become Trumplandia’s president in name only, with Tom Cotton or Mike Pompeo being the real power behind the throne.

Some observations — while I support Biden, he’s old as hell. He doesn’t really engender a lot of faith as to his ability to handle a Second American Civil War. Kamala Harris, meanwhile, would eat Trumplandia for lunch. She’s tough as nails and would make an great wartime leader. Someone who could save the Union just like Lincoln did.

So, for the time being, we wait.

America, 2020.

Do the 19 States have the balls to leave the Union or not? It FEELS like This Is It and we’re going to have a Second American Civil War. It really does. But there is more than enough time for things to calm down and for us to punt this particular crisis down the road.

Do you feel lucky, Trumplandia? Or are you all talk?

History Is Nothing If Not Ironic: Second American Civil War & The Coming Coup Against President Ding-Dong



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

History usually takes the most ironic path possible. As such, the moment any hot war erupts between Red and Blue States, guess who gets the boot — Donald Trump.

Sure, he might have some sort of symbolic role for Red States, but if there’s an actual shooting war between Blue and Red States, I don’t see President Ding-Dong having much of an actual leadership role. I mean, hell, Mike Pompeo thinks Trump is the anti-Christ who will bring back Jesus as part of the Tribulation, that particular coup writes itself.

There are a half a dozen other would-be fascist dictators lurking in and out of American government right now that could push Trump out once things grew existential.

Or, put another way, once the civil war starts, Trump will have served his historical purpose — destroy the United States.

After that, it’s every man for himself.

Second American Civil War: Blue State War Aims & Military Victory Strategy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I’m not the political genius that Maggie Haberman believes Trump to be, it’s very, very, very easy for me to not only come up with Blue State civil war aims, but to lay out how they could win such a civil war.

First, Blue State war aims.

If I had any say in such things — which I never will, but work with me — I would say Blue State war aims would be a Renew American Covenant. If you work on the assumption that Lincoln renewed the American Covenant by turning the Civil War into a war of liberation, then you could say that the Blue State war aims would be to bring the liberal democracy prosperity of California to the entire United States.

Or, put another way, if you could keep California engaged with the dream of a more perfect Union, then you could get them to use their economic might and population size as the engine that would re-unite the States under a Renewed American Covenant. Unfortunately, this is something of a big “if.” California could just wash its hands of the Union and enjoy its status as a free country.

But I’m too much of a Neo-Lincolnist. I want to believe that California would serve the same purpose that states like New York and Pennsylvania did in the original civil war. So, that’s a war aim — make America great again by using California as model for what you want the Union to look like once you win any very tragic — and dumb — civil war.

Now to how Blue States would win any such civil war. If you can just keep California in the Union, they could easily blitzkrieg across the rather empty mountain and Great Plains states and link up with Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. They would, in turn link up with Illinois and the Blue States of the Northeast. Then you do a pincer movement east and south. And, remember, if you’re using the Califnornia model of progressive politics, it’s easy to imagine Blue States in some way tapping into a supply of soldiers that Red States never would — women.

I would also promise African Americans in the South some sort of post-war reoperations for slavery if they simply make life hell for the Neo-Confederates of the South. That’s a pretty good bargain and would fix a lot of problems with systemic racism after any dumb, avoidable and tragic Second American Civil War.

But let me be clear — this is just a back of the envelope type situation. Of course MAGA would likely, in desperation, seize WMD in parts of the country they controlled and bomb — and gas — us all to the stone age in desperation. And they probably might simply start murdering African Americans like Nazis given any type excuse.

AND, you would have to factor in WW3 would be taking place across the globe as the United States went through a second civil war. So, the DPRK might vaporize a few cities in the United States out of spite while we were busy killing each other over “cancel culture.”

All I gotta say is — don’t have a civil war.

Real Talk About A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is probably how The Guns of August felt in 1914. Europe was nearly giddy at the prospect of war. So, too, are a lot of people — apparently a lot of them in the South — so giddy at the abstract concept of a Second American Civil War that they are completely oblivious to what they’re proposing.

I keep getting pings from the Usual Suspect of former CSA states — South Carolina and Alabama — from people obviously excited at the idea of a civil war or some sort of right-wing revolution. It’s surreal and disturbing that anyone would WANT America to buckle into civil war.

For Right Wing people to hate liberal so much that they would be willing to actually destroy the country they claim to love so much in their bloodlust against them….dumb and extremely callous.

But here we are.

So, what’s going on is while we all fear that SCOTUS could rule in Trump’s favor with this dumb and dangerous Texas case, the actual case itself is something of a place holder. What’s really going on is we’re all nervous Something Bad is going to happen that forces the issue of civil war / revolution.

Or, put another way — MAGA wants to murder liberals for political reasons and they just haven’t summoned up the courage to put their thoughts into practice. It definitely FEELS as though This Is IT. Something Bad is going to happen between now and, say, no later than April 2021 that causes the country to implode, divide and get extremely violent.

America, 2020.

The issue for me is, given that MAGA apparently has no war aims going into any such hypothetical civil war other than “murder liberals” and you have the setup for Red States to lose any civil war or revolution they might be looking forward to. Yes, MAGA would have first-mover advantage and a lot more leadership (for no other reason than the entire Republican Party is on board with destroying the country), but if a civil war actually happened, things would likely move very, very fast.

Blue State leaders would begin to rise the occasion pretty quick. I’m a big believer that the average person has it within them to rise the occasion should it happen — but they need the opportunity. (Trump is the exception that proves the rule.)

So, it would not take too many months of MAGA running around blowing shit up and killing people before a pretty huge swatch of non-MAGA people (many of them conservative) would begin to plot a counter attack. And that, in itself, is something we would have to get used to — no one under about 80 remembers World War 2 when there would battles won and lost, but ultimate the war itself was won.

As such, the first year or so of a Second American Civil War would be extremely chaotic and bloody as things began to sort themselves out. (Remember the moment any Second American Civil War starts, World War 3 starts, too, and it’s very easy to imagine the DPRK nuking a United States distracted by its own implosion.)

But, gradually, the economic, population and educational advantages of Blue States would show themselves and Red States would be thrown on the backfoot. Things would grow very radical for both sides and I could see Red States doing some pretty massive atrocities against, say, African American in the South — or even Jews for that matter.

Or, put another way, as things grew worse for the Neo-CSA, its government might grow more radical and Nazi-like. A race war might erupt in the South — especially if, say, Blue States told African Americans that if they rose up they would get Reparations for slavery after Blue States won the civil war.

The thing any shithead cocksucker who is excited about a Second American Civil War needs to be told is — it would be a massive, historic and global tragedy that would result in the deaths of potentially 100s of millions via various limited nuclear exchanges both domestic and internationally. It would be a tragedy that we would only give value and a narrative after the fact.

Think about that.

My Personal Second American Civil War Plans — Head To NYC As A Political Refugee


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have repeatedly said in the past that if the End ever comes I’ll either be the first person to die or the guy who brings back civilization. So, if a Second American Civil War happens, I’m my vision is I pack up my few belongings and head north to NYC.

But first, some context.

This is really a delusional idea — for the moment — because of what it would require. When I lived in South Korea, I did really well there because every day was an adventure and everything is extremely chaotic. But for things to get so bad in the United States that I would have an infrastructure to get me to some sort of Revolutionary NYC, then, well, things would have to gotten very bad indeed.

I guess me talking about such — at the moment — delusional things is me simply giving myself some solace that I have A Plan, if need be. But I do know that I manage to get to NYC under the conditions of this dystopian hellscape, I would probably do quite well for myself. I’m really good at abstract thought and I’m a pretty good organizer.

If nothing else, it would be pretty cool (in a sense) to live in the Manhattan Commune, or whatever the Revolutionary Government there would be called. The idea such a thing would even ever exist is, in itself, rather dubious. But it just makes sense that of all the potential places for a Commune, NYC , LA and Boston would be it.

Or to put things another way — I’m not going to sit on my hands if America goes tits up. I’m going to use whatever talents I might have to try to make people’s lives better again.

And, really, there’s a good chance SCOTUS is going to punt this particular problem down the road and it might be as late as 2024 — or never — that such a End of The World situation even happens.

But it definitely feels as though America is one Oklahoma City-style explosion in NYC or LA, or an assassination away from the whole country collapsing and people dying for their politics. I hope I’m wrong. I really do.

Coup State Of Play — Rudy Strikes Back


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I hate being right. Especially about shit like this. But Rudy has struck again with his Stormy Daniels Disinformation Playbook. While Twitter liberals were gloating about his farting and melting, Rudy has keep this bullshit in the public eye.

So, here we are.

Rudy has pretty much boxed SCOTUS into just the corner he wanted to.

But, not quite. He’s boxed SCOTUS into a corner in the eyes of 48% of the population. Not so much for 52%. And now Trump is putting all his chips on SCOTUS for them to overturn the election in his favor.

This is exactly — EXACTLY — what I’ve been ranting about for months and months now. All the conditions are there for Trump, Rudy and his merry band of idiots to “catch the car.” ‘

It would be the biggest event in American history since 9/11. It would be, as I have often called it, a “political 9/11.”

We would all walk around in a daze for a few hours at the implications that an actual fucking coup took place in the United States. The reason why it seems clear that a revolution / civil war would happen at that point is the States is so divided that while half the electorate was spooging its pants at the news, the other half would start protesting, rioting and saying, “THIS WILL NOT STAND.”

Shit would get lit pretty quick.

The Storming of Trump Tower, Winter 2020.

And once Trump had his thin veneer of legality to hide behind, he would use the Insurrection Act to stay in power as long as he liked. Or, put another way, he would strangle the Constitution right in front of us all with even realizing what he had done.

As I have written repeatedly, what would probably happen is initially is there would be rolling political violence such that Blue people in Red States and Red people in Blue States would flee, making the difference in the two sides more clear. This would lead to radicalization.

It’s even possible that both the Far Right and the Far Left would size power here and there on a state and local level and form Revolutionary governments. I could see this happening in, say, New York City. And definitely in some parts of my state of Virginia.

It’s even possible that the U.S. Military itself could implode as things progressed. Then you have the potential for Balkanization in among the States and pretty much World War 3 happening around the world as suddenly the United States isn’t there to stop Iran from bombing Israel or the DPRK from bombing South Korea.

And don’t get me started about the DPRK deciding to strike the US homeland itself just out of spite.

Anyway, we have to take this seriously. We’ve entered the valley of the shadow of death.

What happens next is anyone’s guess.

Incels, MAGA & Undead American Democracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key issue to understand is American Democracy as we know it is dead. About half the population wants an autocracy pretty much because they can’t get laid. Technology has made it so blue collar men without a college education can no longer afford to get married and raise a family.

Everything else is just rationalization.

As such, at its core, the racism, misogyny and bigotry of MAGA is pretty much just men angry with blue balls. Or put another way, the idea of the “incel” is far more significant than one might think when it comes to how fucked up American politics is.

If you think you’re being forced to be celibate, then you’re probably going to be open to the ideas of the Proud Boys, or other forms of extremism. I guess what I’m suggesting is under the “resource” theory of history, a big chunk of men hate women and minorities because they lack the means to acquire the “resource” of sex.

The point of all of this is Trump has about half the population begging him to be an autocrat, to kill American democracy once and for all and, in a sense, he can’t get it up. To date, at least, he’s all talk. He gave Republicans hundreds of young hack MAGA judges and a huge plutocrat tax cut….but he can’t be bothered to take the final step of killing American democracy. This, even though a huge swath of the population wants him to do it. Like I said, in fact, people like Lou Dobbs and Gen. Mike Flynn are literally BEGGING him to do it.

And he can’t do it.

This is not to say America isn’t still in a very dangerous situation. Trump could still do something really, really crazy in a last ditch effort to stay in office, no matter what. He could very well snap in some way and destroy the country out of spite — and a fear of going to jail in New York State.

I have no idea what is in store for America at this point.

A lot depends on the economy and people like Tom Cotton. If Cotton manages to become president in 2025 or 2029, then that’s it, we’re an autocracy. The United States will be little more than Belarus.

And, yet, that’s kind of our best case scenario, given macro trends. The worst case scenario is there will be an organized effort to give Trump his Reichstag Fire NOW, so he can stay in power. It is easy to imagine a situation where there are a series of Oklahoma City bombings across the country in major Blue State cities between now and January 20th.

Or there’s a war with the DPRK or Iran.

You name it. What otherwise might happen gradually between now and 2029 might happen violently between now and January 20, 2021. You can dog whistle the need for violence for only so long before someone, somewhere is going to take you up on it.

And we haven’t even gotten to the part where Trump doxes Electors.

So if we manage to punt this particular autocratic problem down the road one election cycle because, in the end, Trump really is just an empty suit, no an autocrat, well, I don’t know if I’m supposed to laugh or cry.