Tag: Fuck You MAGA

The Die Is Cast

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

No one is going to save us when it comes to Trump and MAGA. On a macro basis, the die is cast. Or, put another way, now that all of the expected indictments of Trump have been handed down, we’re a lot closer to knowing the dynamic going into the 2024 election.

Trump is an avatar, a vessel for the MAGA fascist rage over not just the browning of America and the growing economic agency of women, but nothing more than just “vibes.” So, barring something I can’t predict, Trump will see being elected as his only way to avoid going to prison.

I still believe that Trump is going to win in 2024 and we’ll just slide peacefully into autocracy. That will be that. I just don’t see Blues having the spunk to do anything about a lurch into autocracy. Too many Blues have second passports they have through their refugee grandparents. They’re cowards with the means, motive and opportunity to flee the country when autocracy comes to America. Rather than any sort of “Resistance Revolution” in late 2024, early 2025, a least 1 million wealthy, smug Blues will leave the country starting Election Day 2024.

And, yet, if Trump does lose, there is a real risk that in a hysterical bid to avoid prison time, Trump could begin to demand that Red States leave the Union. Then we have a National Divorce — a civil war. There probably would be a race between Texas and South Carolina to see which state will be the first to secede after a Secessionist Convention.

Any attempt at a National Divorce would be very, very messy. There are a lots of Reds in Blue State and a lot of Blues in Red States. And, that doesn’t even mention the racial element of all of this. If there was a National Divorce at Trump’s behest, there is a greater-than-zero sum chance of a race war in the South.

On a personal basis, my own state of Virginia is two states fused together that hate each other. If there was a National Divorce, it would be states like Virginia that would implode into intra-state civil war because the two parts of the state are just too hostile towards each other.

Witness Tampering Is Not Cool

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In yet another example of Trump bending the rule of law to his will, he’s now witness tampering in a rather brazen manner (see above.) The fact that ding-dong could very well get away with it is yet another indication of how America has a very Weimar Republic vibe to it at the moment.

As I’ve said before a number of times, things are growing so dire at the moment that we have to prepare for Something Bad to happen in late 2024, early 2025. There just doesn’t seem any way that we’re going to punt our severe structural problems down the road another four years.

Late 2024, early 2025 will be it. We’re either going to slip peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy, or we have a civil war (Reds) / revolution (Blues.) I suppose there is some “third way” that will allow us to avoid such catastrophes, but I have my doubts.

But I can’t predict the future — nobody can — so I guess it’s at least possible something extraordinary might happen to prevent the so-called “Fourth Turning” from happening.

And, yet, on a superficial basis, all the signs are that there we’re pretty much fucked. There’s either a National Divorce, a founding of a Third American Republic or we slide into a Russian-style autocracy. The irony of this is, of course, is when things grow existential the so-called “woke” era will fade away.

Rather than worrying about how many pronouns can dance on the head of a pin, people are going to worry about if they live in a state that is in align with their political views. Or if their neighbor is going to attack them for the same thing.

And if things get that dire, it’s going to happen really, really fast. Trump, unto himself, could start a civil war or provoke a revolution. As such, there is a better-than-even chance that Trump might be seen as one of the most significant political figures in American history.

The Thing I Can’t Game Out About Late 2024 – Early 2025.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is one known unknown that I just can’t predict when it comes to what might happen in late 2024 – early 2025. And that is, of course, the issue of how far the two sides are willing to take things if they don’t get what they want. On paper, there definitely seems to be a greater-than-zero sum chance that we’re either going to have a civil war or a revolution.

So, I just don’t know. I just don’t know if all my “hysterical doom shit” about civil or revolution has any basis in what might actually happen. At the moment, it definitely seems bonkers to even suggest that a nation like the United States might buckle and collapse into civil war or revolution.

And, for the moment, I honestly have no way of knowing one way or another if my fears are right. But from my reading about the Antebellum period of the late 1850s, there are definitely a lot of similar macro trends taking place these days that suggestion that Something Bad is at least possible.

But, at the moment, it really could be that I’m getting myself worked up for no reason. We could just punt our problems down the road another four years, or we could slide peacefully into autocracy.

I just don’t know.

Are We Going To Have a Civil War?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me begin, yet again, by saying I can’t predict the future. But one thing is clear, the 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be the most significant in American political history since 1860. I say this because there seem to be a number of pretty dramatic outcomes in late 2024, early 2025 no matter what happens.

Before I talk about how a civil war might start, I would like to note that we’re still too far out. There are too many known unknowns that could still allow us to, much like 2020, to punt some severe political and structural problems in American society down the road another four years.

But let’s address the issue at hand — could the United States have a civil war?

The key thing to note is I’m choosing my words carefully. The scenario I’m laying out is one in which a National Divorce becomes a civil war. At the moment, there is only one way where I see us having a civil war — ding-dong Trump somehow manages to lose or “not win” the 2024 election.

Now, this is where I have to hone into a specific issue that is sometimes missed by talking heads on TV. Trump is so vainglorious, so dumb and oblivious to the impact of his words that he could accidently, on purpose, unto himself cause a civil war out of pure self-preservation.

Here’s how I think it would happen.

Soon after it becomes clear that Trump has magically lost the 2024 election, he will ratchet up the hysterical political rhetoric. The prospect of going to jail will have a way of focusing Trump’s mind and he might even go transactional and begin to rant in very specific terms about how it’s time for a National Divorce. Maybe. Something like that.

And this would be the moment of truth for MAGA. They would have to put up or shut up in regards to their belief that the Deep State is out to get them. And it’s clear to me that if there was a civil war, it would begin at the state level. Soon after Election Day, states like Texas and South Carolina, will begin to call up Secessionist Conventions to take up the issue of leaving Union.

This will not happen in a vacuum. The reason why any National Divorce will, by definition, be very messy, is a lot of Red States have a lot of Blues living in them. And there are also states like Virginia which are actually one Red state and one Blue state fused together who hate each other with a passion.

So, as the country begin to cleve into Red and Blue once and for all there will be a massive amount dometic political refugees will be generated. And it’s this specific issue that I think would indicate shit was really going down. If millions of people freaked out and felt they were no longer safe because their personal political views did not fit that of their home state, well, get ready.

This is just the beginning of a potential clusterfuck.

If the United States implodes then there is every reason to believe that WW3 will erupt as a number of simering regional conflicts get hot really fast. And, what’s more, there is always the risk that the DPRK will lob a few H-bombs our way just to be a dick.

And, remember, history has it happens has no narrative. It’s not until everything is wrapped up that we look back and think this or that outcome was “inevitable.” So, it’s just as possible that some sort of Trumplandia will successfully come into existence as it is that the “good guys” will win.

I continue to believe that all signs point to Trump winning and the United States peacefully slouching towards a Russian-style autocracy.

All The Conditions Exist For A Catastrophe In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing that seems to elude most American political observers — except for Frank Luntz of all people — is the rise of Trump is a symptom of severe, existential structural problems with the United States. The Cult of Trump is based the “economic insecurity” of white people who are in love with the “idea” of Trump.

White (male) Christians can feel cultural and political power slipping away from them and, as such, they see ding-dong Trump as an avatar, a vessel for their rage. At this point, their attachment to Trump is so white hot, so absolute that there is literally nothing the man could do that would lessen their affinity for him.

With all of this in mind, the thing I’m worry about is what happens if something amazing happens and Trump actually manages to lose the 2024 election. Way too many people who should know better seem to think we’ll just dust ourselves off and wait until the next presidential election.

America, the sole hyperpower in the world, seems primed and ready for a National Divorce if Trump loses and a “Resistance Revolution” if he wins. All of this is on a macro scale. And, as I’ve mentioned before, the issue how willing each side is actually willing to pull the trigger if they feel they have no recourse but to turn to political violence.

I hate violence, but I’m growing more and more alarmed that America faces something of a spectrum. On one end, we have a Blue Revolution because Trump’s incoming agenda is so radical that Blues manage to find their guts and do something about it and on the other end of the spectrum Reds grow enraged when Trump loses and they start to pull out of the Union.

There is a lot I just can’t game out.

There are too many known unknowns. As I keep saying, the old adage is one goes bankrupt gradually, then all at once. And so SOMETHING is going to happen as a part of the 2024 election. I just don’t know what. I suppose it’s possible that we might punt our problems down the road another four years like we did in 2020, but I have serious doubts.

It seems as though we either turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy or we have a civil war (Reds) or a revolution (Blues.) I continue to believe that we’re just going to slide peacefully into a MAGA Nazi autocratic state. The people who might spearhead any sort of “Blue Revolution” will be too busy using their second passports to flee to Europe to worry about us Poors who will be stuck with a weaponized ICE.

But, again. I just don’t know. It really could go either way at this point.

Donald Trump Needs To Go To Jail (But)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Donald Trump continues to bend the very fabric of America society, politics and law to his idiotic, asinine will. For my part, I’m just pleased that Trump has found himself in a shit ton of legal trouble, even if politically he’s still riding high. I continue to believe America has, on a macro sale, given up. We’re careening towards a historic, existential choice in 2024 one that will either see us turn into an autocracy or have a civil war / revolution.

I know that sounds like hysterical doom shit, but I struggle to imagine how we manage to punt some severe, structural problems down the road another four years. But, I suppose, it’s possible.

I do find myself thinking a lot these days about what would happen Trump was thrown in jail for violating the terms of his release while awaiting trial. On one hand, doing so would finally force some accountability on ding-dong Trump. On the other, however, I fear that doing so would only give Trump even more political momentum.

It’s a very tricky situation with no ready answer.

And it all plays into what a dire situation we find ourselves in as a nation. I continue to contemplate how likely it is we may have a civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues) depending on who wins the 2024 election. At the moment, it seems we’re just going to slip peaceful into a MAGA-themed autocracy and that will be that.

But 2024 is still too far out. There some basic things we just don’t know. We don’t know who the two nominees will be and we don’t know how far along the numerous Trump trials will be as we’re heading to the polls. And, what’s more, we also don’t know things like how the economy or Biden’s age might factor in.

So, it seems as though we’re just going to have to wait and see. There’s no much we can do but just wait to see if my worst fears come true, or if we somehow manage to avoid them.

I’m At A Loss As To What To Expect In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing at the forefront of my mind is not any risk of a repeat of the January 6th Insurrection, but, rather something far more dire. The Republican Party has totally gone off the reservation — it’s now nothing short of fascist. As such, the two most likely scenarios for 2024 – 2025 are either Trump wins and we peacefully slip into autocracy or he loses and we have a civil war as Red State begin to leave the Union.

There is, of course, the very real — but far lesser — possibility that there might be something akin to a “Resistance Revolution” if it becomes clear that Trump’s incoming agenda is so radical that Blues simply won’t stand for it. But, in all honesty, I find such a notion dubious because smug Twitter liberals just don’t have it in them to stand up to Trump, no matter how radical and autocratic his vision for America might be.

They’ll just leave the country and setup up shop in the south of France.

As such, it seems what’s most likely to happen is Trump wins and we become an autocratic nation of blood and soil. Then, about 20 years form now, we’ll wake up and wonder why President MTG is invading Canada to “liberate it from the woke cancel culture mob.”

The crux of the matter is late 2024, early 2025 is when the United States decides, one way or another, what the fuck it’s going to do about MAGA and Trump. I suppose it’s at least possible that we might punt things down the road another four years, but I have my doubts. Given how old Biden is, how fascist Republicans are on a structural basis, it definite seems as though late 2024, early 2025 Will Be It.

We’re going to lurch forward in a big way into a uncertain and potentially very dark future. What’s more, the entire world order established after WW2 could be upended, with the United States leaving NATO and pulling troops out of South Korea.

And all of this will happen in the context of the DPRK lurking in the shadows, ready to lob a few nukes in the direction of the United States if it thinks it can get away with it.

But, as I always say — I’m always wrong. I just can’t predict the future. All I got is a general sense of the macro trends a play in American political history at the moment and then extrapolating the into the future. But just like 2020, it’s absolutely possible that something weird will happen and we’ll manage to go a third way that doesn’t involve either autocracy or violence.

Because the thing you have to remember is — Republicans, on a structural basis, are primed and ready to demand a National Divorce if Trump loses in 2024. That’s the thing we have to take seriously. So, you can tell me all you like how Trump will have problems winning the general giving everything going on, that doesn’t stop the fact that Trump and MAGA could see such a loss as a cue to start a civil war.

So, I just don’t know. It could go any number of different ways. I just, in general, don’t believe we can assume that we’re going to just “muddle through.” All the metrics are aligning such that Something Big And Bad may happen in late 2024, early 2025.

Well, America Definitely *Seems* To Continue to Careen Towards Disaster In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a strong believer in no fate but what we make so I suppose it’s at least possible that someway, somehow, America is going to manage to punt some pretty severe structural problems down the road another four years. But I have my doubts.

The reason I have my doubts is the bolt continue to pop off the United States at an alarming rate. It definitely seems as though the passions of the 2024 election will simply be too much stress on the system and everything will collapse — either by us becoming a Russian-style autocracy or by us having a revolution / civil war.

I am well aware that such talk sounds like “hysterical doom shit” but there is one metric that alarms me to no end and that’s how radical and fascist the Republican Party is now on a structural basis. So, it’s not a repeat of January 6th we have to worry about it’s fucking Republican states leaving the Union if Trump doesn’t win.

Of course, on the other end of the spectrum, there is at least a possibility of something akin to a coup or revolution if Trump wins (or steals the election.) But I have serious doubts about the gumption of Blues in that regard. It’s just not in the nature of Blues to do something so dramatic. What’s more likely to happen is about 1 million smug, wealthy Twitter liberals will simply decamp to Europe — or wherever.

As such, given that Trump is 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being POTUS again….we’re pretty much fucked. Barring something I can’t predict, Trump will become president and he will turn us into a Russian-style autocracy based on the concept of blood and soil.

And, if we’re really unlucky, MAGA Republicans will transition into Nazis Republicans and….oh boy. Millions upon millions of people will be at risk of dying in camps. I know how hysterical that sounds, but once we cross the Rubicon into autocracy, the dynamics of the country will change rather dramatically.

The logical conclusion of MAGA will be to weaponize the existing ICE camp system and begin to eliminate whomever the Qanon freaks believe should be gotten rid of.

I hope I’ve got this one wrong, I really do. Only time will tell, I suppose.

Is LK-99 ‘Woke?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have a close relative — whom I love dearly — who doesn’t believe in global climate change and he kind of slipped up recently. After I pressed him on the potential gravity of global climate change he said, “well, technology will take care of it.”

If that’s the case, then why can’t we use the power of markets to actually begin to use technology to ameliorate the effects of global climate change? But whenever we actually attempt to do this, Fox News screams at the top of their lungs that it’s “woke.”

Which makes me wonder if LK-99 comes to fruition if, by definition, the Right will see the use of it as “woke.” It definitely seems, sometimes, that the Right has a death wish when it comes to global climate change. Their need to “own the libs” is so absolute, so existential that they would rather let us all cook than do anything about it.

From what I understand, if LK-99 actually becomes a practical superconductor then we might be able to make great progress towards stopping global climate change in its tracks. I just worry that because of the amount of investment that will be needed to adopt LK-99 should it become practical that that, by definition will cause bonkers MAGA people to poo-poo it as just another “woke” wild goose chase.

Or something.

The fact that I have to worry about shit like this is yet another reason why I’m very alarmed about our potential future. All macro trends seem to indicate that we’re totally and completely fucked. Something Big is going to happen very soon, probably associated with the 2024 election.

What that Something Big thing is, I don’t know. But, whatever it is, it will be very dramatic.

Trump’s ‘Delusional’ Defense

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The moment I heard about the January 6th charges against Trump, I knew what his defense would be — that he honestly believed the bullshit he was peddling. And, sure enough, that seems to be the consensus as to what Trump’s defense will, in fact, be.

And, as such, we’re probably going to spend way, way, way too much time debating the nature of Trump’s delusion just as we’re also debating the fact that Trump is just 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being president again.

This all reminds me of how Trump is an avatar for severe, existential rot within our democracy. That rot is so severe that we will face an existential choice in 2024 — autocracy or civil war / revolution (depending on who wins.)

At the moment, the historical momentum for Trump to win and for the United States to become an “illiberal democracy” like Russia is so powerful as to be nearly immutable. The question is, of course, will Blues do anything when we come to the precipice.

I just don’t see smug Twitter liberals having the gumption to put up any fight on the matter. They’re just going to flee the country and the United States will circle the drain into autocracy.

So. So long and thanks for all the fish, guys. If you have the means to leave the country, I suggest you do so. Trump is delusional and yet he’s probably still going to become president again.