Tag: Fuck You MAGA

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Jesus Christ is Trump an idiot. And, what’s more, he is simply an avatar for white Christians who feel threatened by their coming minority status. If Trump was a “Great Man” we would already be something akin to a Nazi state.

I say this because the people who voted for Trump in 2016 wanted an autocrat. They wanted what I feared. Their dream was my nightmare. Trump had four years to destroy American democracy, but he was so lazy and stupid and spent so much of his time bemoaning the non-existent “deep state” that when the time came, he simply didn’t have it in him to seize control.

And, so, we are in something of a twilight era at the moment. We’re an anocracy. We’re not quite a democracy and not quite an autocracy. We’re in between. According to Barbara F. Walter’s book “How Civil War’s Start” it’s when a nation is an anocracy that they are most at risk of having a…gulp…civil war.

Let me be clear — I can’t predict the future. It’s very possible that something will happen and Trump won’t be the 2024 Republican nominee. If that’s the case, then, lulz, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that’s that. But it definitely seems as though Trump is going to be the nominee in 2024. And if that happens, then, by definition, the risk of a massive political clusterfuck in the United States grow exponentially.

Trump is notorious for saying the “quiet part out loud” and if he runs and wins in 2024, I could totally see him ranting at length about all kinds of crazy shit that would enrage Blue States to the point that they begin to leave the Union. He could get into his orange ding-dong noggin the idea that there ABSOLTUELY HAS to be a Constitutional Convention in his second term to “pass a balanced budget amendment.”

I don’t know what to tell you. To think, the entire fate of 330 million Americans rests on total fucking idiot like Donald Trump. It’s all very sad. In general, however, I would suggest that things are going to get lit the moment SCOTUS actually does, in fact, overturn Roe.

Buckle up.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m growing very frustrated with all the keyboard warriors who seem to think that getting really angry on Twitter is going to change anything. I definitely don’t want any violence, but something’s gotta give.

If we continue to waste our time on Twitter instead of preparing in the real world for our coming choice of autocracy or civil war, then, lulz, our choice has already been made for us — it’s autocracy. What’s even worse is at our time of greatest need, the people who would otherwise serve as the core of any real-world resistance to our coming MAGA themed fascist autocracy — Blue Check Liberals — are all going to decamp to the south of France.

I have very low expectations for the United States politically going forward. There may be some chaos here and there going forward, but as of this moment, it definitely seems as though we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy. And if it’s Ron DeSantis not Trump who is the GQP nominee in 2024, it’s extremely unlikely we’ll have a civil war.

DeSantis (or whomever, as long as it isn’t Trump) is so smooth in a traditional political sense that at first nothing will change until we wake up 20 years from now and they’re still in office. We’re extremely close to having a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention. Maybe three or four resolutions, I think? In fact, I would go so far as to say the big political debate of Trump’s second term, should there be one, will be the fact that the Constitutional Convention has gone rouge and now we’re going to be a full fascist state.

Anyway, lulz, nothing matters.

At the moment, it seems as though we just don’t have the gumption to address, in the real world, the rise of autocratic fascism in the United States. The center-Left is too divided, weak willed and misguided for there to be much fight when the time comes.

I don’t want violence and I don’t want a civil war. But a nation divided upon itself cannot stand. We’re going to go one way or another. Something huge is going to happen between now and 2025. It could be that we have something akin to a civil war, it could be that it becomes conventional wisdom that it is, on a Constitutional level, nearly impossible for a Democrat to become POTUS.

And once that happens, it’s over. All the extremely unpopular policy goals that Republicans have will gradually — or not so gradually — become law and by 2042, we’ll be no different politically than modern day Russia.

A lot can happen between now and January 2025. But I’m going to be flabbergasted if we just don’t slouch towards autocracy.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

No matter what happens in the next few years, we are currently living through the “Before Times.” Something really big is going to happen not just in the United States but across the globe.

I say that because no matter what America decides to do, be it civil war or autocracy, there’s a good chance that the existing world order will be destroyed and something akin to WW3 might happen.

Anyway, good luck.

You’re going to need it.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are two flashpoints that I could see sparking any possible Second American Civil War — California and New York City. Let’s go through two scenarios.

California
When it becomes clear that we’ve slipped into autocracy after the theft of the 2024 election the Bear State Republic holds a snap Secessionist Convention. Given that this would be illegal and there’s no real way for this to happen, this would, by definition, start a civil war of some sort. Probably there would be a “Phony War” at first while the MAGA Federal government tried to figure out what to do about the situation. If Trump is president under this scenario, then, lulz, he’ll probably use nukes because he’s stupid and deranged.

New York City
With this scenario, the same type of thing happens, but instead of California leading the way, the population of New York City collectively freaks the fuck out and they storm the offices of places like The Wall Street Journal, The New York Post and FOX News. They also take Trump Tower in some way. This, in turn, would cause the deranged Trump to strike back in some severe manner which would cause Blue States to begin to leave the Union one right after the other.

A house divided against itself cannot stand. I believe this government cannot endure, permanently half slave and half free. I do not expect the Union to be dissolved – I do not expect the house to fall – but I do expect it will cease to be divided. It will become all one thing, or all the other. — Abraham Lincoln

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The above quote from Lincoln sums up my current view on the fate of the United States between now and January 2025. The difference between the two sides has grown so extreme that we’re either going to entirely MAGA or we have a civil war that leads to the destruction of one of the two sides and we’re unified that way.

Though, I have to note that it’s very unlikely that in this modern world that any Second American Civil War would have an ending as pat as the first. What’s more likely to happen if there is a 2ACW is a permanent division of the United States into, say, the United States of Canada and Trumplandia.

I say this because of what the war aims of the Blue States would be — simply to leave the Union and not have to worry about living under the MAGA jackboot. It would be MAGA that would want to control the entire territory of the United States. So, in a sense, the dynamic of the First American Civil War would be switched with the center-Left simply wanting to leave the Union while the center-Right wanting to keep the Union together.

But a lot would depend what type of leadership bubbled up to the surface as we progressed towards making our final decision of autocracy or civil war. I still think that the “radical moderates” of the #NeverTrumper movement will be the leadership of Blue States. I mean, Goddamn, is Liz Cheney the type of Margaret Thatcher type leader that Blue States would need should the shit hit the fan.

The Red States, meanwhile, have a shit ton of leaders to draw upon. I can think of a dozen really strong MAGA Republicans who could populate the leadership of the rump USA should there be a secession crisis that leads to a civil war. But one thing is clear — if you think there can be a peaceful National Divorce, you’re a fool or full of shit.

Any “national divorce” would, by definition, be extremely violent and involve weapons of mass destruction.

Anyway, the point is — things are very unstable in the United States right now. Things could go either way. We could simply shrug and become a Russian-style autocracy, or we could have a violent “national divorce” that will directly and indirectly lead to the death of millions.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For want of a better term, I think I’m going to call whatever it is that is going to happen around 2023 – 2025 “the Big Ugly.” We’re in for a bumpy ride and we need a name for the time when we’re figuring out if we want to blow ourselves up or if we want to turn into an autocracy.

Anyway, I’ve long suggested that the fate of Blue States will hang with what I call “Radical Moderates.” These are people who, because of the necessity of history rise to the occasion, regardless of what their actual political views are in more normal times.

As such, I’ve come to believe that what is a rather marginal group at the moment — the #NeverTrumpers — will, once the Big Ugly is in full force, become crucial to the fate of the United States. Take, for instance, Liz Cheney. She’s just the type of person to become a leader within the Blue State national government should things come to that.

I’m still not 100% sure such a thing is going to happen — we could just gradually (and peacefully) become a Russian style autocracy. But we take the more tragic option of secession then a Second American Civil War, the #NeverTrumpers and specifically Liz Cheney could do some pretty historic things.

Like, Abraham Lincoln level type things.

But that’s just a possibility.

And, yet, I could see Liz Cheney (and other #NeverTrumpers) filling the leadership void that the center-Left in the United States currently suffers. Outside of a few people like AOC, the cupboard is bare when it comes to the type of tough as nails leadership that any Blue State Republic would need should we have any type of hot civil war.

But, for the moment, all of that is kind of crazy talk. All the keyboard warriors of Twitter at the moment would have to start to risk things important to them in the real world for anything like that to happen.

What’s more likely to happen is, all the Blue Check Liberals will be cowards and flee the country in droves. So, instead of staying organize any form of real-world resistance within Blue States to the fascist MAGA federal government, they’ll spend all their time drinking wine in the south of France where they’ll be the White Russians of the 21st Cenutry.

In other words, unless something changes, we’re fucked.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is every reason to believe that when the moment comes at some point around late 2024 to early 2025, Blue States will “bend the knee” to MAGA. Given the general trends we’ve seen over the last few decades, there is every reason for the typical American to believe that when the time comes that knee bending will happen.

And, yet, there is a lingering possibility that rather than bending a knee, Blue States — probably starting with California — may make a move to leave the Union. Which, of course, would inevitably lead to a civil war.

But at the moment in 2022, I really struggle to see either a Secession Crisis or a civil war. It definitely seems as though we’re going to simply shrug and slip into autocracy and that will be that.

Every time I come to this conclusion, however, I find myself mulling how it there might be major political violence around 2024 – 2025. It seems, as the moment, that the crux of the risk of a civil war has a lot to do with Trump. Orange Ding-Dong is so stupid and lazy that he, unto himself, could push us into civil war.

If he says “the quiet part out loud” and rubs the theft of the 2024 election by Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” in the face of Blue States, that, unto itself, could be enough to push the United States into civil war. If, for whatever reason, it’s Ron DeSantis who is the Republican nominee in 2024, the likelihood of a civil war is far, far less.

DeSantis is a traditional politician and, as such, he would be able to maintain the control enough to slip past the weak moment America’s final transition from anocracy to autocracy. He would be able to sooth the fears of Blue States long enough to seize control. Then all notable liberal leaders will flee the United States and that will be that.

We’ll become an autocracy without a shot being fired.

This whole situation is complicated by the growing radicalization of the MAGA New Right. They could very well go out of their way to specifically rile the center-Left up in an misguided attempt to “own” them. The entire edifice of the Republican Party is now growing more and more anti-democratic, autocratic and fascist.

And if Trump is the Republican nominee in 2024, as it seems he might be at the moment, then…the chance that we’ll have a civil war increases significantly. Trump is so bonkers and idiotic that he, unto himself, could be the cause of a Second American Civil War in 2024.

It makes you wonder, of course, if, from a psychohistorical standpoint that we were supposed to have a civil war in 2020 and Trump just wasn’t up to his historical job. But we simply can’t punt the question of autocracy or civil war down the road forever.

That particular question is going to be answered within the next presidential election cycle or two.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve started to think a lot about the potential economics of a Second American Civil War. On the face of it, my smart friend’s belief that I’m full of shit when it comes to believing we’re careening towards a civil war around 2025 is very valid. His dismissal of my fears on economic grounds make a lot of sense.

As long as plutocrats are making money, they don’t give a shit about how poor women in Red States can’t get an abortion.

And, yet, I struggle to accept this pat dismissal.

There are at least two reasons why I still think a Second American Civil War is still on the table for around 2025. The first reason is something that Republicans harp on all the time — the “woke” nature of Fortune 500 companies. As such, the case can be made that when the time comes, Woke Corporations will at least sit on their hands should Blue States get so angry with Red States that they leave the Union (or try to).

The other, bigger issue, is the continued bonkers radicalization of the MAGA New Right. If they were willing to simply turn Red States into a dystopian hellscape, then, yes, there wouldn’t be much economic reason Blue States to leave the Union.

And, yet, at its very core, MAGA’s vision is the total control of the entirety of the United States — Red and Blue. And that’s when the existential choice of autocracy or civil war happens for Blue States.

When it becomes clear that all three branches of the Federal government are permanently out to get Blue States and have a very radical agenda they want to implement nationally, there is every reason to believe Blue States may begin to leave the Union and we have a massive, catastrophic Second American Civil War that lasts years and involves WMD.

It probably won’t have a tidy endgame and it will totally redraw the political geography of North America. We could end up with The United States of Canada and Trumplandia and that would be that.

I can’t predict the future. I don’t have any reveled truth, but I’m not quite prepared to dismiss the possibility of a Second American Civil War entirely. But Blue States definitely have to decide one way or another — will they “bend a knee” to radical MAGA themed autocracy, or will they fight for what they believe in?

I dunno. Could go either way.