*STILL* Stuck In Creative Neutral, To Some Extent

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m still stuck in something of a creative neutral of late. I just don’t quite know what to do, given that American democracy hinges on who wins the election. So. lulz?

Ugh.

I’m just very unable to game out who is going to win the election. In general, I would say that Kamala Harris does seem as though she has a lot of momentum at the moment. And, yet, even if she wins, there a real risk that the country will collapse into chaos because Trump will demand a National Divorce.

And I do think that Texas would at least seriously think about leaving the Union if Trump did so such ranting. The whole thing makes me so nervous that it’s difficult for me to do anything creative. I hope that won’t last forever.

I just don’t know. Things are so tight that my fear is that I’m just going to be in a haze for the next few weeks while I wait for the election to happen. It just seems like we’re careening towards some sort of dark void that could lead to tyranny if Trump wins and civil war if he loses.

Stuck In Creative Neutral

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For the time being I fear I may be stuck in something of a creative neutral while I wait to see if the country collapses into civil war after the 2024 election. i don’t think it’s going to happen, but, as the song goes, “the waiting is the hardest part.”

It’s the not knowing that is really getting to me.

It’s just a general sense of angst about the fate of the country that has me mentally preoccupied for the time being. I have all these creative things I want to do, and I’m locked in neutral in my mind and heart while I wait to see what happens next.

But hopefully — hopefully — I will shake out of it sooner rather than later. It would suck if I simply stared out into space for the next two weeks while I waited to see if the country collapsed into chaos or not.

Once Trump’s Tyranny Is No Longer Abstract, All Hell May Break Loose

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing I’ve noticed about a lot of the liberal, hand wringing think pieces about any possible impending Trump second term is how abstract they are. They don’t really get into the nitty-gritty of what the reaction in Blue states might be if Trump went “full tyrant.”

Now, if Trump is all talk and is more Victor Orban in his autocracy, then I think he will be fine. He will lay the cornerstone for an autocratic state that will probably last for the rest of my life. We will continue to have “elections” but they will be anything but free and or fair.

My fear is, of course, that Trump is so dumb and bonkers that he goes full hard tyrant and does such crazy shit that the country buckles in some way. If Trump canceled, say, the midterms or the 2028 elections, then that would be….oh boy, a bridge too far for most people Red or Blue.

Or if he really did gather up 20 million undocumented people, put them in camps and started to deport them. That would be something, on a practical basis, that a lot of Blue states simply would not stand for. And that doesn’t even begin to address what might happen if, say, Trump started to use Red National Guard troops on the populations of Blue States.

That kind of “hard” tyranny is the kind of stuff that gives me pause for thought. The country would be shaken to its core in a way not seen sense the American Civil War. I have pondered some “legalistic” ways Trump might be deposed by the military, but, alas, I don’t even think that would help much because Trump would replace too much of the leadership of the military.

The point is — if Trump wins, the US could buckle in a pretty dramatic fashion. And if Blues were able to successfully depose Trump, that would only set the stage for a civil war, with Red states leaving the Union in protest. So, for everyone’s sake, I think some situation where Trump loses and simply drifts off into the political darkness would be the best for everyone involved.

Thinking of April 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have some appointments set for April of 2025 that have got me thinking what America might look like at that moment. I’m rather concerned that no matter what, the country could be in chaos.

If Harris wins, it could be because either there’s a secession crisis going on or a “recognition” crisis going on where by some Red states imply refuse to acknowledge that Harris is president. Meanwhile, if Trump wins — Jesus Christ. Things could be in total chaos — especially my state which is two states, one Red, one Blue, fused together who hate each other.

But I just don’t know. It could be I’m way, way, way overthinking all of this. It could be that Harris wins and that’s that. There are no problems and Trump rants a lot but ultimately just slinks away into the political darkness.

That would be the solution that kind of saves the day, all things considered. But who knows at this point, I suppose. I sure as hell don’t. All I hope is I can safely get to my appointment and not have to worry about armed gangs stopping me, demanding to know my political affiliation.

Though, because I’m a survivor, I have begun to sort of game out that possibility. Yikes, will that suck. As I keep saying, I suppose I will head north if things get that bad. North seems like where somewhere like me might find succor. Though, I suppose I might swing by Richmond to at least touch base with some relatives on my way there.

Maybe.

At The Moment, At Least, Kamala Harris Has Momentum

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, at the moment at least, it seems as though the Kamala Harris might have the upper hand against Trump? Maybe? I say this as someone who is notoriously bad at predicting the future. But it’s at least possible that — maybe — Harris is going to win.

Now, my fear is, of course, if she does win that Trump will freak out and demand a National Divorce. But maybe I’m overthinking things. Maybe that’s not at all what is going to happen if Trump loses. He might just get mad and slink off into the darkness.

We can only hope, I suppose.

But there is a chance that Harris wining will be just the beginning to a pretty big crisis. There are any number of pretty dark scenarios that I can think of. One that I’ve been dwelling on a lot of late is not so much a secession crisis as a “recognition” crisis, with a number of Red states refusing to recognize Harris as having won the presidency.

How that would work out in practical terms, I don’t know. But the whole “who is president?” issue could be a serious crisis with no ready endgame. And, yet, again, maybe I’m overthinking things. Maybe, hopefully, everything will work out and we can cruise into 2025, no problem.

We Are Just Not Prepared For A Trump Second Term

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All signs point to any Trump second term being extremely radical to the point that I can’t game things out. I say this because Trump keeps telling us explicitly the totally bonkers things he plans to do and we lulz it.

And whenever I broach the subject of some of the crazier things Trump wants to to my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — they either simply say so want or are otherwise very blasé.

Two things stick out to me. One is Trump’s declaration that he will deport millions of people as soon as possible. Just the idea of him contemplating such a thing makes me blanch for a number of reasons. The biggest is, of course, how in the world is he going to build out the infrastructure necessary to do it. You would have to build out some sort of Federal police — ICE? — to the point that its ranks ballooned.

Meanwhile, you would have to open up camps to put all the people in before you kicked them out of the country. You would have to feed them, etc. I just don’t know how practical any such thing would be. And on the ground, families across the country would be torn apart.

And that doesn’t begin to address the situation where center-Left people — like me — might get rounded up as part of the deportation just accidently on purpose.

The other thing that really, really bothers me is Trump’s continued ranting about using the National Guard of Red States on Blue State populations if they cause any problems. This one is really personal because I could very well be a stray Blue that gets caught up in this particular endeavor.

I just don’t know. I have no idea what we’re going to do if Trump is re-elected. Things could get rather surreal. And all of this doesn’t even begin to address what happens between Election Day and Certification Day. Things could get nasty — and potentially violent — in ways none of us can predict at the moment.

I’m Unnerved By The Near-Term Future of The United States

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I would like to think that maybe the United States can make it through the next few months without, in some way, collapsing. I say this in the context of it could be that no matter who wins, some pretty horrific shit might happen. If Trump loses, he could go “full tyrant” to the point that the country collapses because Blues refuse to take his shit anymore.

At this point, I’m just really perplexed about what may happen one way or another. I just don’t know.

I do feel, in general, a deep sense of unease.

I keep thinking about the specifics of how and why I might become a domestic political refugee. Like, how might it specifically happen. My guess is because my politics are well known enough that someone will knock on my door and tell me I need to leave my home — or else.

Or, I suppose, things could get kind of “hot” for me in my area to the point where I make the move to leave on my own, even though no one outright tells me I need to leave.

I keep imagining there being refugee camps in places like the rural parts of PA, upstate NY and maybe Maine. Those seem like the types of places such camps would arise if there came a need for them.

Or something like that. I just don’t know. And I really don’t like the uncertainty of it all.

Trump Is Demonstrably Bonkers & Yet The Race Is Tied — Lulz?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though there simply isn’t anything we can do now when it comes to Trump. He’s demonstrably bonkers and, yet, for a variety of reasons, no one is changing their mind.

A lot of this comes from how absolutely partisan the two sides are now. It also comes from how there is a lot of momentum within the American political system for fascism. There are a lot of people who know Trump is a bonkers fascist and that’s what they want.

One thing I really think about is what are we going to do about the Trump agenda. What happens if he wins and really does do all this fascist bullshit he seems so happy to pontificate on? What happens when the problem is no longer abstract, but rather very very concrete.

My fear is, of course, that if Trump really does any of these bonkers things he says he wants to do that he will be “deposed” in some way. This makes me very nervous. I really don’t want such thing to happen because I hate violence of any sort.

But the key issue is — in general, we risk a lot of political instability in the United States over the next few months, regardless of who wins. Trump winning, however, could very well cause a severe reaction to the counter-revolution that Trump promises to implement if he is re-elected.

Civil War Watch?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The signs are there for something pretty bad to happen post-election. I continue to see some very violent MAGA paraphernalia in the deep red part of Virginia where I live. It is enough to give one pause for thought if you combine it with everything else going on in a broader sense.

The key thing for me is what the reaction will be in states like Texas if Trump loses – even by a lot – and he starts to rant at the top of his lungs that the system is so fixed that the only option for them is a National Divorce. It definitely seems as though some states, probably starting with Texas, will take Trump up on the suggestion.

So, it doesn’t really matter if we really beat hard — what matters is if first, will Trump demand a National Divorce if he does lose and second, will anyone take him up on the demand? I say this in the context of there being ANOTHER problem — it could be that there will be some sort of certification shenanigans on the part of Republicans on a local basis.

If that happens and Trump somehow “wins” even though he clearly lost, then things might get far more messy — specifically, it might be very riled up Blues who decide to somehow “depose” Trump since he “win” would be totally illegitimate.

Let me note — I hate conflict and / or violence and just laying out in abstract form what might happen. I’m just really, really worried. My sense of general unease continues to linger the closer we get to the election. I can’t predict the future and have no idea how things will shake out, but it definitely feels like something pretty bad might happen at some point, starting after Election Day.

A Continued Sense Of Unease

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continued to have a sense of unease about this fall and winter. I know I’ve been writing for years about this moment in time, but that doesn’t make it any easier to process.

It definitely seems as though this maybe be it. We’re going to find out, one way or another, if the USA is going to collapse in to civil war and / or revolution because of Trump or if his election in 2016 was something of a fluke and the high water mark of fascism in the country.

I just don’t know the answer at the moment, which is the source of all of my unease. I can already see it in my mind — Trump loses, demands a National Divorce and my state, Virginia, collapses into an intra-state civil war. I have to leave my home and, before you know it, I’m living in a refugee camp in up state New York or something.

Ugh.

Or, alternately, Trump *wins* and things get so bad that I have to figure out a way to get out of the country. This is a bit tricker because, well, I have no money. But maybe there will develop some sort of “Underground Railroad” for Blues who need to get out of the country or something.

Something like that.

I just don’t know. The whole thing puts me on edge. But, I suppose, we will all learn soon enough one way or another.