Tag: House Trump

‘The Trump Party’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It would make a lot of sense for the Republican Party to die and transform itself into, simply, The Trump Party. It would do away with any misunderstanding — the Republican Party is Trump and Trump is the Republican Party.

The upside to this would be there would be a sizable number of Republicans who would balk at this and, for maybe one presidential election cycle, the Right would be split. But soon enough the rump Republican Party would wither away, leaving a transformed Republican Party in the guise of a Trump Party that would have Nazi levels of devotion to Trump.

It would be far, far easier, than, for Trump to be an actual autocrat because any Trump Party elected official or government employee would do whatever the Dear Leader needed them to do. At last, there would be no issue regarding a Republican being a “RINO.” By definition, if you were in the Trump Party, you would have absolute devon to the Leader.

And that would be how America really did turn into the Weimar Republic. So, maybe it’s a good thing that there’s still a Republican Party that’s simply dominated and terroized by House Trump, not totally controlled by it?

Even Our Best Case Scenarios Suck: Trump’s Coming Stress Test Of The Constitution



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Even our best case scenario in the next three months sucks. Our best case scenario is something, “In the end, after having nearly destroyed the Consutition in a rabid bid to stay in power, Trump pardons himself and flys AF1 to Pyongyang and quits.”

What I mean by this is, Trump has made it clear he’s going to exhaust every possible option before he leaves office. And it’s reasonable to assume that we have a Vote Certification Crisis and a Elector Intimidation Crisis ahead of us. Trump will use violence and the threat of violence make seem as though he has a chance of actually “legally” staying president, when, in fact, it’s simply the usual “autocrats never lose” situation.

This is all the lull before the storm, I’m afraid. Not only do we have to worry about Trump winning one of his bullshit lawsuits at SCOTUS, we have to worry about Trump starting a war to Wag The Dog or naming Rudy FBI director so he can frogwalk Joe Biden in an attempt to negotiate his own escape from justice.

And all that’s the best case scenario.

The worst case scenario is someone blows something up and TrumpBarr use that as excuse to invoke the Insurrection Act and take “total control.” In essence, there’s something akin to a coup and with that I simply can’t even map out an endgame.

Anything from Trump mysteriously staying power to a actual civil war / revolution could happen should such things happen. As I mentioned, it’s possible that Trump could really flip his lid and start a war with the DPRK or Iran for the sole purpose of making us so distracted that he can be a War President and mysteriously, again, never leave office.

I hope I’m wrong. I often am. But we have to take the possibility of such bullshit seriously.

The Future Of Hollywood in Autocratic America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is now an autocracy. It’s obvious that the Trumplandia infection gone septic. Because of white identity politics, about 50% of the population is so afraid of being “canceled” — or are seriously greedy fucks – that they would rather end 240 years of liberal democracy than risk giving away power to the browning of America or women with sexual agency.

But, is becoming a common refrain for me, none of this is going to happen in a vacuum. As TrumpBarr begin to strengthen their grip on America in an practical fashion — probably by weaponizing the already existing ICE infrastructure — this is going to give creative types something they thrive on: a limit. Art has to have limits so they can be toyed with, almost crossed and generally fucked with. Artists need something to make them angry and if they know speaking ill of the autocrat is a big no-no, then, of course, that’s the one thing they’re going to want to do.

I know for me, at least, that my rage against the Trump Administration has fueled the two years of hard work necessary to get me this far with the allegorical thriller I’m working on. (But it’s not Network — it’s not nearly as allegorical as maybe it should be given how aggressive ICE will become soon enough.)

It’s at least possible that once the shouting’s over and Trump’s court coup is successful, that 50% of the American population is going to need a cathartic release. As such, the entire American entertainment industry might be revolutionized. (But this in context — Hollywood may move somewhere like Perth before it’s over with if Trump puts the squeeze on studio executives.)

The point is — if nothing else, a lot of angry art might begin to grow very popular. We might, just might see the return of punk or rock music. The gritty movies like we had in the early 1970s might grow more popular. There might be extremes — the serious movies will grow darker and the funny movies more funny.

They will all have a point, though — attacking the autocrat without crossing the line so everyone gets arrested and thrown into an ICE camp.

No Fate But What We Make –‘Autocracy or The Big Ugly’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m actively tuning out of what’s going on right now with the election. If I could, I would be “The Man In The High Castle.” For various reasons, I can’t escape the events of the outside world seeping into my little writing cocoon that I’ve managed to establish overnight.

So, here’s what’s going on in my view.

I was right — autocrats never lose. The conditions that allowed Trump to win in the first place are simply too powerful. The descent into autocracy is complete. It happened right before our eyes over the last four years. We should have been tipped off about this inevitably by we could never muster up the political will to do anything about Trump, no matter how bad he got.

The bad guys have won. If you follow the idea of “form follows function,” the next thing that will happen once Trump steals the election at SCOTUS will be a swift consolidation of power. Using the threat of revoking broadcast licensing, the entire media world will be purged. And the entire intelligence infrastructure will be purged of the “deep state” as well.

As some point, very soon, Trump is going to start tweeting about how the budget deficit is too big and we ABSOLUTELY have to past a balance budget amendment. But we have to call a Constitutional Convention to do it. The same dynamic we’ve seen the last four years will happen. He’ll get his Constitutional Convention and because it will be made up of MAGA sycophants, they will go rouge and pass a “Second Bill of Rights,” which is, in fact, something akin to American Enabling Acts.

Trump will also leave NATO and form some sort of autocratic alliance with Russia, Turkey, Hungry, (rump) England and the Philippines. The entire post-world war two liberal order will come crashing down and everything will be rearranged. This will probably be sold to the American public — and reluctant Republicans — as being forced upon us because of the rise of China.

All this happens a lot quicker than you might think, especially if TrumpBarr have to fight to steal the election. The more difficult it is for them to win, or “not lose,” the more radical they will become. This is doubly so if there is any violence associated with either their coup in the courts or their final consolidation of power.

TrumpBarr will take “total control” by invoking the Insurrection Act.

Now, that’s what I think is going to happen. But there is, at least in the abstract, another possibility. I serious doubt this is going to happen because our autocratic infection has gone septic — our liberal democracy is dead and we just don’t have it in us to do what would be required to actually force #MoscowMitch to take notice.

In fact, the only thing that makes me think there is a greater than zero sum chance this other option might happen is, well, Trump is a fucking incompetent moron. Even with the help of Interior Minister Barr, it’s possible that because of the passions of the election and how the country is split pretty much 50 / 50 that, well, the suffer The Big Ugly.

So, really, the absolute worst case scenario that I’ve been ranting about for months now might come true — the United States may buckle. We may have something akin to a civil war / revolution for no other reason than Trump is now a caged rat who will do anything — even destroy the country — to prevent himself from going to prison post-election.

These two options are on something of a continuum from autocracy to The Big Ugly. In the middle would be something along the lines of an extreme 2000 outcome where the center-Left knows they got screwed over, they’re peaceful and the whole issue of what happened will get throw into the memory hole along with the Iraq War.

Or, put another way, something would have to change in a rather abrupt fashion for Trump not to “not lose” via SCOTUS. I would suggest keep an eye on Trump Tower. If passions grow so bad in the country that a mob of angry New Yorker’s take Trump Tower and gut it, then, well, the Big Ugly is here. Or be prepared for several Timothy McVeigh in Oklahoma City type events to happen across the country by the far Right. Something, anything that would break the seal on political violence. Something along the lines of John Brown’s attack on Harper’s Ferry.

But such events are very abstract. I’m not advocating any of that — Jesus Christ — I’m just, in an abstract fashion, giving you some sense of how you would know our inevitable march into a Russian style autocratic managed democracy might take a rather sudden left turn.

I just can’t see that happening, though. It’s over, folks. We’re an autocracy. And, in real terms, given how weak the opposition to Trump is — and how incompetent he is — it’s possible that Trump’s final consolidation will be far more gradual than I imagine. We’ll just wake up at some point in 2023 and realize we had a chance to prevent the dystopia we now live in and we blew it — in more ways than one.

Again, I’m not advocating any type of Big Ugly. That’s not my scene. I just want to finish my allegorical novel about the Trump Era and see if I can sell it. That’s all I want. Live long and prosper, folks.

A Big Ugly Scenario


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

  1. Biden wins handily on Election Night, but not all votes are counted.
  2. Trump sues Wednesday morning to throw out all mail-in votes and wins because, lulz, SCOTUS is full of MAGA hack nows.
  3. Within moments of the SCOTUS decision, enraged New Yorkers attack Trump Tower and FOX News’ HQ
  4. This allows Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act to take “total control.”
  5. Unprecedented political violence begins to erupt, to the point that Blue people in Red states and Red people in Blue states don’t feel safe anymore — domestic political refugees begin to bounce around the country.
  6. There’s a secession crisis as California openly debates leaving the Union. This is where things grow hard to predict — does the state attempt to leave or does it stay and fight?
  7. The entire country begins to implode as even individuals within the U.S. Military begin to take sides.
  8. Two rival governments are established. One in NYC and one in Montgomery, Alabama. (The DC area has completely imploded into civil war.)
  9. Virginia and Florida completely implode as intra-state regional differences are hardened and exaggerated as both Blue and Red grow ever more radicalized.
  10. I have no idea what the endgame for this would be.

Donald Trump: Flight Risk


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m still not prepared to believe the Russians would allow Trump to lose. It makes no sense. Why allow such a valuable asset to be forced out of power? Why not hack into our election systems then “accidentally on purpose” get found out. A civil war breaks out when Republicans lulz this and win at SCOTUS. The Russians get the destruction of their main geopolitical foe.

But, let’s daydream. Let’s play pretend.

Politico recently did an article on Trump being a possible “flight risk.” I haven’t read the article — just saw the headline — so maybe they covered this already, but let’s mull where Trump might go.

There are two obvious places — Moscow and Pyongyang.

The reason Trump might leave the country is simple: he doesn’t want to go to prison. Now, of course, given how Trump and Senate Republicans have turned 1/3 of the Federal bench into a MAGA cheering squad, it’s easy to imagine a situation where SCOTUS not only validates Trump pardoning himself, but somehow pulls some bullshit explanation for why he can’t be indicted for state crimes, either.

That definitely seems a lot more likely than Trump leaving the country in a rather astonishing — and historic — fashion before January 20th.

But if Trump did do something so bonkers, flying to Moscow on AF1 then quitting right before January 20th definitely seems the most obvious. He would have the biggest country in the world to play with and he could spill all the state secrets he liked directly to the Russians.

I wouldn’t completely dismiss the DPRK, however. I say this because Trump definitely seems to have a personal affinity for “Little Rocket Man” and it would make a lot of sense for him to at least begin his post-presidential career hanging out with Kim Jung Un for a few months before flying to Moscow.

The only reason why I doubt Trump would do such a thing — even if he is a deranged moron — is even he knows because of SCOTUS he could beat any state rap and staying in the country would allow him to fuck with future elections and become the political Singularity of the Republican Party.

And, yet, Trump is a deranged moron.

So, I dunno.

The Big Ugly: America As Political Powder Keg


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So it’s clear that a Federal judge in Texas is going to throw out 100,000 votes Monday morning, lulz, we can’t have Texas turning Blue, now can we? My fear is that such an event could spark significant political violence on the eve of the election, which, in turn would give Trump the excuse to invoke the Insurrection Act and directly fuck with the election on election day.

That, in turn, would escalate things and before you know it, the country implodes and The Big Ugly has begun.

It could all devolve very, very quickly.

So quickly, in fact, that there could be several political 9/11s in quick succession. Before we know it, not even the U.S. Military will be spared.

As such, the Russians will have gotten what they wanted — a second American Civil War, “the worse the better.”

I guess for me, the moral of this would be for center-Left people to at least wait until after Election Day to freak the fuck out. But no one listens to me, so there you go.

I wish I could get so drunk for the next few days that I wake up after a bender on Wednesday morning but that plan never works. I always stay way too sober in such stressful situations. It happen in 2016. It’s going to happen in 2020.

The True Tragedy of The Trump Era


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Two major historical events come to mind when I mull how the Trump Era — should it come to a close soon — will be viewed. One is Watergate. Not only was it the crucible through which America entered the modern era, it was all around a big old tragedy.

If anything, Trump has taught us a very crucial lesson about Watergate. We thought Watergate established a gameplan for how a president might actually be removed from office if his or her crimes were bad enough. In fact, Watergate was a very specific event with very specific characters that was not really any sort of gameplan at all. It was simply a fluke.

Or, put another way, it was a construct of the era in which it came out of. People in 1972 – 1974 had some sort of shame. Some sort of sense of honor. Two qualities that absolutely no one in the Trump Administration has.

The point is, however, that nothing was the same after Watergate. The Republican Party became the part of the people who were Nixon deadenders. That core group of people — in the guise of Reagan — would come roaring back in 1980 as part of the Reagan Revolution.

The Reagan Revolution is the other big event that the Trump Era gives us some insight into. The reason why Reagan’s election was so important was many of the problems that would lead to Trump first began to form. The Republican’s obsession with SCOTUS. It’s obsession with cutting taxes and social programs. It’s hatred of anyone voting. The list goes on.

The key issue of this moment in time, however, is how it was a psychological break from the past. The entire country began to take for granted a number of what were previously far Right concepts.

So, here we are in the Trump Era.

It will be the biggest shock of my adult life if not only the Russians let Trump lose, but Trump doesn’t somehow start a civil war just out of spite and a fear of going to prison should he leave office.

But should Trump miraculously leave office and a Biden Administration start, I just don’t see how things snap back into place. Trump isn’t going anywhere. He’s still going to be an ex-president. He’s still going to demand a spotlight and he’s still going to have a Twitter account. What’s more, he’s probably going to salt the earth on the way out the door.

One subtle change, however, the thing that we’re all going to have to deal with, is Trump single handedly radicalized much of the center-Left the way the Obama’s second term radicalized the entire fucking Republican Party. We were sucker punched by Trump’s time in office and so a lot of the native goodwill that many center-Left people might give Republicans simply doesn’t exist anymore.

In a way, both sides are now equally radicalized and suspicious of each other. The only real difference between Republicans and Democrats is the latter actually believes in liberal democrats norms. And Democrats have some sense of shame. Republicans, meanwhile, don’t give a shit. They are so fucking craven, so blinded by ideology that they were more than willing to fucking destroy the whole country if they think it might give them just one more young hack MAGA judge.

But I still just don’t believe Trump is going to lose. He’s an autocrat and autocrats never lose. Never. It’s going to be the Russians. Or SCOTUS. Or some combination of both that allow Trump to “not lose.”

And I just don’t see Americans having it in them to do what would be necessary to force the issue and drive Trump out of office — a General Strike. I believe TrumpBarr will simply grow more radical as necessary, invoke the Insurrection Act and that will be that.

As I keep saying, on a strictly political level, Biden is doing quite well. But Trump is an autocrat — if a very incompetent one — and, as such, will never fucking leave office. And if he does leave office, you had better be sure he’s going to demand a pound of political flesh.

So, in the end, even if Trump is out of office, everything will be different. Our expectations have changed. There’s likely to be a Trump Deep State that will aggressively work to bring down the Biden Administration at every turn. The Fox News faux outrage machine will constantly be looking for different ways to recapture the glory of the Trump Era.

Trump will be the Republican Party’s new Reagan. Everything they do, everything they say, everything they believe in will be relative to Trump. They hate democracy and see it only as a means to an end. About half a dozen would-be younger, brighter, more focused autocrats are already chomping at the bit to finish the job Trump has begun.

Remember — even after the disgrace of Watergate, the Republicans just barely lost to Carter in 1976. Barely. It was one of the tightest elections in history. And they came roaring back just six years after Nixon left office in disgrace.

Should Trump physically leave office, we’re probably going to have three to six months to enjoy it before Republicans will shit on it all.

But I still, still will be completely flabbergasted if Trump loses. Too many powerful people — including Trump himself — will fight dirty to ensure Trump stays in power as long as he likes.

Lame Duck Trump


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Using all metrics but one, the United States is about as stable a nation as they come. We have no history of significant political violence. We generally are rather complacent, even under duress. All in all, but for one metric, we’re in pretty good shape.

But then there’s the rot associate with our political system.

Our political system has pretty much ground to a halt. Republicans have embraced minority rule. The center-Left, meanwhile, while extremely divided, has become united for the moment around Joe Biden. With truely dumb speed-confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett, Republicans definitely give one the impression of finally casing aside any concerns about liberal democracy.

So, under such conditions, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where even if Biden wins in a landslide, TrumpBarr simply refuses to acknowledge it. They challenge every possible aspect of it, knowing they will always win at SCOTUS. Or, they could concede defeat, only to be such massive dickheads because they don’t have any accountability that that, in itself, causes the country to implode.

It’s easy to imagine a situation where Trump, fearing his own possible indictment after he leaves office, fires the current head of the FBI and names Rudy on an interim basis. Rudy frogwalks Biden and TrumpBarr uses it as a negotiating tactic to escape any accountability after he is physically removed from office by Federal marshalls.

I could also imagine a situation where he rather dramatically begins to saber rattle with the DPRK or Iran. Something, anything, that would give him the cover necessary to take “total control” and either not leave office or only leave office with some pretty significant concessions.

Now, as I keep saying, the about Trump is he’s so unstable that you just don’t know. You look at his past behavior — and his repeated statements in the last few days — and you very well come up with a pretty dark scenario. So dark, in fact, that not even a demostrable Biden landslide would be enough to prevent him from causing a civil war.

But is it even within the realm of possibility that an actual “civil war” would take place?

I honestly don’t know. It pretty much boils down to Trump himself. The entire fate of the United States at this point rests on Trump’s personal decision. He could very well lose and be such a monster on his way out that there’s massive political violence, which he uses to take “total control” and that’s how he stays in power.

That, in itself, would escalate the whole clusterfuck and the Russians get the Second American Civil War they want so badly. I keep thinking about any type of second civil war or second revolution and for the moment I have a lot of difficulty imagining how such worse case scenarios would occur.

But let me be clear — The Big Ugly, as I call such things — would not be “cool” it would not be “fun.” It would really, really suck. It would be a tragedy and we would all regret that it happened.

Let’s hope it doesn’t.

Apocalypse & How: Various #TrumpCoup Scenarios


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

  1. Trump Loses?
    This is the least likely scenario because autocrats never lose. Something, most likely the Russians — is going to step in and cause him to “win.” But if he does lose in a manner that not even he can deny (even though he will try) he will salt the earth on the way out in an effort to establish a “Trump Deep State.” He’s already destroyed much of the executive branch for a generation, he’s such a greedy moron he’s going to take it to the next level for the three months he has zero accountability. He will pardon himself. Or name Rudy to head the FBI and indict Biden so he can use it as a negotiating tactic to prevent his own indictment once he’s out of office.
  2. Trump Loses…But Wins.
    In this scenario, Trump loses and sulks for a few days. He pops out with the names and home addresses of all the Biden Electors and sicks MAGA-Qanon on them as human beings. Through sheer intimidation, Trump wins in the Electoral College and fuck you. This wouldn’t happen in a vacuum, of course, but even then, I find any idea that Republicans wouldn’t just sit back and laugh dubious.
  3. Trump Loses….But Wins…Then Loses
    In this scenario, Trump loses initially, then through post-election shenanigans wins, only to be impeached the moment he is sworn in. The Senate (if it’s flipped) holds a very long, very excruciating impeachment trial of both Trump and Pence (with witnesses!) and because Nancy Pelosi stepped aside to so Democrats could name Biden Speaker of the House, once Trump and Pence are convicted because the country is on the cusp of a very violent implosion, Biden becomes president. Though, to be fair, TrumpBarr would challenge the Presidential Succession Act at SCOTUS and win there (duh) so we could endup with someone like a President Pompeo or President Barr. This, too, would not happen in a political vacuum, so that might be the final thing that tips the country into a shooting war. Good times!
  4. Trump Loses, But Won’t Leave
    This is talked about a lot and I think it has some validity. This one hinges on how sane Trump might — or might not — be should he lose despite Russia having every reason — and opportunity — to change votes in battleground states so he “wins.” If Trump finally freaks the fuck out and his criminality fuses with his insanity, then the might just hold up in the White House and not leave. He might do some very deranged things for three months and Republicans will continue to facilitate whatever it is he wants them to do. In the end, Federal marshals have to physically remove him from a White House that’s surrounded by MAGA-Qanon people. There will be a Battle For The White House.
  5. Trump “Wins” California
    In this scenario, things are tight enough on Election Night that Trump declares victory and demands SCOTUS end all vote counting at Midnight. They agree (duh) and so few votes have been counted in major states like California that he “wins” the state. If there any “problems,” TrumpBarr invoke the Insurrection Act and even though even The New York Times admits a coup is taking place, lulz, nothing really happens. But along the way Trump Tower is attacked by an angry mob of New Yorkers and this serves as TrumpBarr’s “Reichstag Fire.”
  6. 2016 Redux
    In this scenario, Trump mysteriously wins exactly the way he did in 2016. The Russians hack directly into our election systems and fuck you. They have already said they want an American Civil War — “the worse the better” — and that Trump is “their guy.” Why on earth would they not change votes if they have the ability? What’s worse, even if we find out, the Republicans Party is so craven, so traitorous that they would eagerly bounce any such controversy to SCOTUS where they win (duh.) This, too, would not happen in a political vacuum and it might be the thing that causes the country to descend into massive political violence.