Trump Endgame Enigma: ‘Jhi-na Syndrome’



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I love scenarios. I love weighing different factors, asking “what if” and wondering how a number of conditions would work. Usually my scenarios are the absolute worst-case.

So, let’s play the “What if Trump finally lost his mind” scenario.

Here’s the thing: first, how would we know?

Trump is so conspicuous in his instability, that for him to have finally have cracked, something REALLY Big would have have to happen. I am still of the opinion that Trump is more likely to implode than explode and we’ll simply not see him very much in his inevitable ill-gotten second term. He’ll be catatonic somewhere, babbling about the Deep State.

But, let’s say between now and, say, mid-August, a series of things push Trump over the edge. A combination of a pandemic, a depression, BountyGate and maybe even his taxes being released, becomes such a weigh on his mind that he snaps. I think such a decompensation would come a logic trap — he would absolutely want to win and yet he would absolute know he wasn’t going to win. (Though he might never get that bad since it’s obvious the Russians are going to hack into our election systems in exchange for Trump removing 1/3 of our fighting force out of Germany before September.)

Anyway, let’s just say Trump snaps.

I think a number of things would happen at the same time. A lot of things that have been rolling around his mind would pop out. He might whip is cock out. He might tweet out a dick pic. He might began to tweet out out the N-word to any African American who crosses him. He might simple begin to babble vulgarities at every opportunity. Or even stranger things might happen, like he dives head first into Tik-Tok and starts attempting some of the dances there. Or maybe he really, REALLY makes it clear he wants certain people “reminded of the power of the 2nd Amendment.” He keeps doing this now and no one takes him seriously. What if he won’t shut up about it in a rather manic fashion for days or weeks on end?

The next issue is what the reaction would be.

Given how close we are to the election, initially, not a lot would happen different. Republicans would simply ignore the behavior, hoping it will go away. It would take a few days of some seriously disturbing behavior before the pressure would begin to build for something, anything to happen.

This is where things get murky. I can’t figure out how we would ever get rid of Trump, even if he was, say, going out of his way to start a war with the DPRK in a desperate bid to “Wag the Dog.” I might go so far as to say this crisis might go on and on and on and on for months until the election rolls around and, surprise! Trump weirdly wins anyway.

Then we spend three months on edge we try to figure out how we’re going to get Electors to vote for Joe Biden because it’s absolutely clear that because of a quid pro quo with Russia, Trump has illegally won re-election because of hacking on the part of Putin.

I guess the point is — I don’t know how we would ever actually get rid of Trump, even if he fucking totally lost his fucking mind and put the lives of 300 million Americans at risk. We’re stuck with him, no matter what.

Something Big *May* Be On The Way With Trump (Between Now & August)



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now is the summer of our discontent.

I have no inside information. I’m not a member of the “IC.” All I got is my gut. And my gut tells me someone, somewhere, knows something big about the mental state of Trump and they’re worried.

The key thing you have to remember is Trump simply has to get into his second term. That’s it. That’s all he has to do — get sworn in for a second term. After that point, he could go completely insane and his dream of an authoritarian white ethno-state will be come a reality. I say this because I believe his second term VP is going to be someone like Tom Cotton or Mike Flynn (Or Steve King). Someone who will be both impeachment insurance AND someone younger and more organized who can knock heads in an organized way.

So, Trump, in a sense, is at his weakest right now. (As is the nation as a whole because democracies are so messy just before the election actually takes place.)

I say between August and now because August (as Slate will tell you every year in your Facebook newsfeed) the worst month of the year. So, it would make sense if Trump finally snaps in a completely fucking insane manner, it would be about mid-August.

If he can make it past August, I think he’s fine. His dreams of destroying America will, finally, come true.

Let’s see what the fates have to say about all of this.

An Observation On Trump Scandals



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump has an absolute floor of support of about 35% of the electorate. He’s not quite down to it, yet, but he seems to be working his way towards it. That core support of people barely pay any attention to traditional news sources and, in fact, get most of their news directly from Trump’s twitter feed. They’re a bunch of racist, ignorant morons who are willfully destroying the country by supporting Trump through thick and thin.

This leaves people like me extremely frustrated because Trump is pretty obviously a Russian stooge at best and a Russian agent at worst. He has no traditional political accountability and as long as he has that core 35%, never will.

I will note, however, that occasionally he gets himself into trouble that lingers. He eventually peters out like all his scandals, but sometimes he screws up in such a massive way that while he still has that 35% of racist, authoritarian loving assholes, at least those people are made to sweat for a little while.

This issue with “BountyGate” is a prime example of what I’m talking about. While I know that barring Trump, himself, self-owning even more that it will eventually get lost in lead up to the 2020 Election, I find myself thinking about it all the time these days. I’m REALLY MAD about this thing and I can’t stop thinking about how bad either option is for Trump.

Either he’s criminally incompetent and his job or he’s a traitor. He’s going to go with criminally incompetent and weasel his way out of yet another jam, then get the Russians to steal the election for him (or he’s going to steal it himself by going after Electors) and he’ll be impeached AGAIN at some point in his second term, probably either 1 1/2 or 3 1/2 years into his second term. (I’m thinking it’s most likely to happen the same year as an election for various reasons.)

By that point, of course, Ivanka Trump, Tom Cotton or Mike Flynn will be his second term VP and we’ll be nothing more than Russian style “managed democracy.” (Ivanka would be used as a figure head for her veep Tom Cotton or Mike Flynn should she become president. It’s rat fucking like that that authoritarians love, love, love to do.)

Again, let me be clear — the fate of the Republic hinges not on Biden, or Pelosi, or voters. It hinges on the mental state of one Donald J. Trump. If he fucking loses his mind in The Night Of Camp David style meltdown between now and,say, August, then there’s a chance that we’ll at least punt the end of the Republic down the road one more election cycle.

Otherwise, lulz!

The Mueller Report, Trump’s Taxes & (The Potential End of) The Trump Administration



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I often wonder what would be the real consequences if we found out Castro and the Mob were directly responsible for JFK’s death. All the principals would be dead. It might be give closure, but in real terms, it would be a big meh.

The reason I think about this a lot these days is not only the possibility that much of the Mueller Report might be unredacted by a Federal judge, but the small possibility that we might, at last, see Trump’s taxes. We’re so close to the election and Trump is obviously simply going to ratfuck his way into a second term, I honestly don’t see anything of note happening if we learn the absolute worst about Trump.

I mean, if we have absolute proof that Putin has near-absolute financial control over Trump Org…would it even matter at this point? Probably not. Trump is going to have a second term, no matter what and, in real terms, Trump faces one real threat and one real threat only: himself.

The only way I see anything of significance happening to the Trump Administration going forward is if Trump finally loses his fucking mind to the point that he, say, starts a war with the DPRK or something else of similar significance.

We probably would have a few days of uncertainty if Trump’s taxes came out, but in the end, we’re just too close to the election and Trump will never resign so, lulz.

Darkness has fallen.

The Damage Is Done — Trump As Tyrant & Traitor



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


It’s now rather obvious that someone like Trump was going to appear in the 2016 – 2024 time frame, it was just a matter of whom. But it’s also clear that the damage is done.

America is no longer a Republic, it is a Russian-style “managed democracy” and there’s no going back, at least for the next 20 to 40 years when the Graying of America crosses the Browning of America.

Trump is just really, really, really bad at being an autocrat, so it’s not as obvious what’s going on. But once Tom Cotton (or whomever) succeeds Trump, the entire state will be used to destroy liberal democracy in the United States.

I don’t have any solution. This is it. The end of America. The bad guys have won. Even if Biden wins — and somehow actually is legally sworn in — it will be just a death rattle.

The most current outrage over Trump knowing about Russian bounties on US soldiers in Afghanistan is already blowing over because Trump is simply going to say he was criminally incompetent, which his base can accept, not a traitor, which his base likely can’t.

Get out while you still can.

Why Does Everything Have To Be So Dumb? #TrumpTulsaRally



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

You could not think up a worst beginning for a catastrophe. A bunch of people screaming in an enclose space for two hours, screaming at the president during a pandemic. What’s more, all of this is taking place in one of the worst-hit states in the Union.

It’s all very, very, VERY DUMB.

And, yet, here we are.

Really, all you have to do is have Trump finally snap mentally in the next few days and you pretty much have the absolute worst case scenario. But that last bit is probably going to be saved for the middle of his second term when The Kooch (or whomever) is his Veep. Someone young, organized and capable of shepherding Enabling Acts through a Constitutional Convention.

Trump is just a deranged moron who is extremely lucky.

It will, however, be interesting to see if we reach any sort of acute crisis in the coming days that throws everything out of whack as we head towards Election Day. I do know, however, that Trump is going to steal the election. Autocrats never lose, not even a very dumb one like Trump.

Fucking QAnon Has Taken Over The Entirety Of The Republican Party



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have one contact in the Republican Party who is usually pretty normal. He’s very conservative, but also very charismatic and generally a great guy. So when he told me the following via Facebook Messenger about what’s going to happen in the fall, I was shocked.

HIM: Electoral College scoreboard will be a 2016 repeat with a slightly larger margin for Trump. However, he will be killed soon by establishment agents.

ME: What are you talking about “killed.”

HIM: Assassinated.It will be poison or bio agent.

So, this leads me to believe that even the base of the Republican Party knows something’s wrong with Trump and they know that there’s a good chance he won’t finish his ill-gotten second term.

Still think Ivanka or some insane person is going to be Trump’s second term Veep, though. Someone far worse than Trump has ever been because they will be young, focused and actually know what they’re doing.

DPRK, WTF?



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Out of the blue, I’m hearing a lot of chatter about the DPRK doing something against ROK. What it could possibly be, I have no idea. In fact, it’s not so much them doing something at this point but WHY would they do something against their brothers to the south?

The Sister
Kim Yo-jong may, somehow, in an unexpected position of power. The DPRK is a blackbox, so the idea that Kim Jung-Un is actually secretly dead is not a weird as you might think.

Trump
It’s possible the DPRK can see what we all see — that Emperor Trump I is an invalid moron — and they may feel it’s now or never. If they don’t strike the ROK now and try to get some sort of border adjustment, it’s just never happening.

Covid19
Maybe things are a lot worse in the DPRK with Covid19 than we know and this is kind of a deathrattle freakout.

But there are some problems.

All of them involve the U-S-A.

Trump is just too both moronic and bonkers. If he felt he might be able to win re-election as part of a Rally Around The Flag war against the DPRK, he would likely go at it with great gusto.

And, then, well, things escalate and NYC, or LA are vaporized in a limited nuclear exchange between the two nations.

I just don’t see any of that happening.

It’s just another time where the DPRK wants some attention.

How Trump Won



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Autocrats never lose, and as such, Trump is going to win in 2020. Here are a few of the ways he will win.

The Insurance Policy
Trump is going to ditch Pence and name some insane person (The Kooch, Tom Cotton, Steve King, Kris Kobach) as his veep. Or someone ostensibly sane (Ivanka Trump), but actual a proxy for the person they will name their veep when Trump finally goes insane in his second term. Ivanka, in particular, is perfect to help him pull off an “upset” win (see below) because she’s a threefer: a woman, Jewish and a Trump (and moderate!)

The Quid Pro Quo
The United States is removing 1/3 of its troops from Germany after a friendly call between Trump and Putin. This is set to happen by September, just in time for Putin to directly hack into our election systems on Election Day. By the time we figure out why the polls were so wrong again, lulz, we’ve had a Constitutional Convention and Trump is a barely functioning American Brezhnev.

The Durham Investigation
This is still lurking out there, ready to pop out. This is a catch-all investigation into everyone Trump hates by this dude named Durham. The conditions are there for Biden to be indicted just about the same time as the Second Comey Letter. Lulz! Trump wins.

COVID19
It’s possible that if COVID19 will simply grow so deadly that center-Left people won’t go to the polls (the ones that are still open for them) and Trump squeezes about a victory in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Trump Sues
If the other two things don’t work, then Trump sues, claiming massive voter fraud. It goes to SCOTUS and he wins 5-4. Lulz!

The Electoral College Commission
It’s very easy to see a 1876-style commission established to figure out which Electors to allow to cast their votes. Last time, it was made up of half Republicans, half Democrats. In the divided America we live in, all they have to do is have another Brooks Brothers Riot at some point and lulz, Trump wins.

General Electoral Ratfucking
If all THAT doesn’t hand the presidency to Trump, he simply ratfucks Electors on a personal level. His criminality and insanity fuse into one. He doxxes them on Twitter, telling MAGA, Proud Boys and whomever else will listen that they and their families have to be taught a lesson about the power of the 2nd Amendment. Or he bribes Electors. Or whatever else the fuck he wants to do. Nothing matters and no one cares at this point.

General Election Violence
This is a real wild card. It’s going to happen at some point, the question is how badly is it going to get. It’s going to get so bad that it’s the biggest story of the year, bigger than COVID19. America doesn’t have any history of political violence, and so when MAGA starts murdering people like me in cold blood, well, there’s a chance that, in itself, will be enough to keep Trump in office.

The point is — TRUMP IS NEVER LEAVING OFFICE FOR ANY REASON.

He is going to get into his second term and gradually turn into an American Brezhnev with absolute power after a rouge Constitutional Convention gives it to him. His successor will be even worst than he is.

Get out of the country if you can.

Trump’s Bonkerness Be Not Proud



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


The Mad King continues to be mad and we’re not going to do anything about it. The question is, of course, if we do reach a crisis with Trump’s mental state, will we even recognize it? I don’t think we will — I think Trump’s insanity and criminality will fuse in such a way that he’s going to literally destroy the entire Republic because, well, lulz, nothing matters.

Our future?

If if the things people like me have long feared happen — like Trump whips out his cock and starts masturbating, or starts to rant about African Americans using a gratuitous amount of the N-word…nothing will happen.

Nothing
Will
Happen

Nothing.

We’re so close to the election that Trump could go way, way, WAY out of his way to start a war with the DPRK and I just don’t see there being any consequences. Maggie Haberman would coo that it was all part of Trump’s political genius. Trump could explode, not implode, mentally and we’re all just going to have to wait for Jan. 20th, 2021.

But wait, there’s more.

There’s a real chance that if Trump’s insanity and criminality merge, that his enablers will be cool with him brazenly bribing electors. Or doxing them on Twitter. Or siccing MAGA on them in the dead of night. Trump could, at last, murder someone in cold blood on FOX News and lulz, nothing matters.

His enablers are that far up Trump’s ass at this point.

And, really, in the end, if Trump’s insanity finally reaches a point of crisis, it’s not going to happen in a way that helps either side. I mean, history didn’t pick the greatest time to let leash a pandemic, now did it? Last year would have been FAR BETTER for everyone involved.

Anyway. Now what.