Tag: Second American Civil War

Well, At Least A Second Civil War Would Be One Way To Fix Modern America’s Problems


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about history is, there’s no narrative while you’re living through it. We give history value and a narrative after the fact to make sense of the world. When history is actually happening around you, it fucking sucks.

There are a number of systemic problems in modern America that are eating away at our rotting liberal democracy. As such, we’re at something of a crossroads. Who’s vision of America will we follow? MAGA’s racist, misogynistic white Christian ethno state, or the liberal-progressive vision of equality, inclusion and traditional liberal democratic values?

Now, I will be the first to admit that “woke” “cancel culture” — even though it doesn’t really exist — is something that conservatives have a legitimate reason to worry about (in some respects.) What I mean is, we’re two different countries that are quickly receding from each other to the point that conservatives don’t know the “new rules” of society that are being established in major metropolitan areas.

At the crux of this clusterfuck, I believe, is young people have lost all perspective on what’s important. It’s been close to 50 years since they had to worry about the draft and the hell of war is nothing more than an abstract. I think the way to solve a lot of our systemic problems in National Service for all 18 year olds. That would be one way to get good old boys from Alabama to be forced to talk to Brooklyn soyboys and vis versa.

Tragically, that’s just not an option.

Even though I would much, much rather just continue to patch up our rotting liberal democracy for as long as possible to punt the prospect of war down the road, if you take MAGA’s bloodlust seriously, you have to admit to yourself that if the “good guys” won any such civil war then at least — on a macro level — a lot of our intractable problems might find some suddenly very easy solutions.

But that’s a big “if.”

It’s very easy to imagine MAGA cocksuckers winning or the country splitting into two and each side implementing their own visions for America in their respective new nations.

I do find it very troubling, however, how fucking bloodthirsty MAGA is right now. Jesus Christ, people.

Life In Modern Antebellum America — Taking The Prospect Of Civil War In 2024 Seriously


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

You would be amazed at how many people who come to this site apparently think they’re going to be some sort of MAGA revolution NOW. It blows my mind. There’s some fucked up shit brewing in the Far Right echo chamber and we’re just not prepared for it.

The only thing I can compare it to is pre-WW1 Europe where people had forgotten how much the Napoleonic Wars had sucked and were itching for a new opportunity to bathe in the glories of war. In other words, MAGA cocksuckers are so wrapped up in the abstract of killing liberals that they have completely deluded themselves as to what such a conflict might actually be like.

As I have repeatedly said before, MAGA looks at the center-Left and sees a bunch of globalist cuck soyboys who they can easily crush. I would suggest to them to first — fuck off — and second even a soyboy might get a bit more frisky if you stuck a gun in their face. MAGA people with bloodlust are taking the dynamic of our rotting liberal democracy and extrapolating it to the world of war and the two are not the same.

I don’t even know what the war aims of MAGA would be in a civil war. As of right now, it seems like their goals in a civil war are little more than a grunt. They just have been so brain washed by FOX News that they probably couldn’t even tell you WHY they hate liberals so much.

And, remember, if we really did have a civil war Red States have two major problems. One, the places where they could most successfully seize control are small, white states. Meanwhile, the states that would otherwise provide them with the economies and population they would need to seize “total control” have large African American communities that would rather engage in a race war than leave the Union so a bunch of Nazi Confederate fucktards can make them slaves again. UGH.

Here’s another thing — any “hot” civil war in the United States would unleash significant radicalization on both sides. It’s easy to imagine a situation where Blue States drafted women into some sort of New Model Army, which would greatly increase the potential pool of soldiers.

I guess the argument could be made that Red States could simply use stolen WMD to nuke and gas Blue States into submission but once that particular genii was let out of its bottle then both sides would use it. Such vicious behavior would only serve to radicalize both sides even more as the war progressed.

What I want to make clear is the center-Left needs to take the threat of some sort of sucker punch on the part of Red States in 2024 seriously. MAGA cocksuckers have zoomed past the mental preperation necessary to start murdering people like me in cold blood and the sooner center-Left people (or people who simply want to live in a traditional liberal democracy) begin to figure out how they’re going to address that in 2024, the better.

Endgame 2024: From Second American Civil War To Autocracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let’s go through the different potential endgames for our coming 2024 catastrophe.

The Punt
In this scenario, Something Big happens again that punts the systemic crisis we currently face down the road yet another presidential cycle. Things that might do this include a major war — against, say, the DPRK or Iran — or some technological advancement that so jiggles society that the Far Left and the Far Right fuse into a new, anti-tech party and the “good guys” live to fight again.

Implosion
With this one, there’s some sort of civil war when the now-Republican controlled Congress does everything in its power to give the presidency to the Republican. The more brazen the theft, the worse the crisis and the more likely a major civil war of some sort will occur. This version of this scenario is more muddled than an actual civil war and involves more severe rolling political violence at the state level that leaves the country hobbled.

Implosion: Secession
It’s possible that no matter what, one side or the other will, as part of the passions of any post-election night shenanigans, attempt to secede from the Union. This is an extremely murky situation because I don’t know who the leaders would be and what their war aims would be. We might simply nuke ourselves into oblivion as part of the birthing process of two new nations.

Implosion And Redemption
This would involve a whole lot of luck that America has lacked the last few decades. In this version, we nuke each other into oblivion but come out the other side re-united and stronger. This would be because the what happened would be such a fucking tragedy — even though the “good guys” won — that the systemic problems destroying the country would be forgotten and we would go back to having a shared vision of what America is.

Autocracy
Another outcome is things happen so fast that we shrug off how brazen the Republican theft of the election is and that’s it — we’re an autocracy for decades to come. Gradually, the autocrat begins to consolidated power to the point that the media is purged and ICE becomes something of a latter day gestapo. There are grumblings about secession on the part of Blue States but nothing comes of it and every year sees a tightening of the the autocratic noose around American throats.

Dystopian Hellscape
In this endgame, we have a civil war and MAGA wins. Because of the civil war, MAGA will have grown significantly more radical and we’ll be living in Trumpandia at last.

Georgia As Setup For America’s 2024 Catastrophe


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s growing clear that our choice in 2024 will be quite stark. The move to restrict voting rights in Georgia indicates that the setup is being established for Republicans to finally, finally get their macro wish — to make it so difficult to vote that people finally give up and let them run roughshod over our undead liberal democracy.

This is where you never can tell.

On one hand, it’s possible that now that the passions of the Trump Era are easing that voters will get sucker punched in 2024 and they will either lulz it and let Republicans rape our republic or they will grow enraged and, well..dun dun dun there’s a civil war.

This setup will grow even more obvious the moment Republicans take control of Congress again. It’s going to suck so bad. The one-two punch of severe voter restrictions and a Congress controlled by fascists pretty much means the end of our liberal democracy is here…unless there’s a civil war and solve our systemic problems that way.

And, don’t forget, either way — autocracy or civil war — there’s a good chance that the entire world order will be re-arranged. No matter how much fucking MAGA cocksuckers may want us to think otherwise — America is the indispensable nation and we’re the glue that keeps the world together. Take us out of the equation and…oh boy. I would estimate within a year of us “bringing the boys home” nearly half a billion people could be vaporized. Indian and Pakistan are always one misstep away from blowing each other to hell. Take the US out of world affairs and that particular disaster is almost a foregone conclusion.

As I keep saying, the issue is — enjoy this quiet before the storm. These two years before Congress flips may be the most quiet we get for the rest of the decade.

The Agony And The Ecstasy Of The Clusterfuck Of 2024


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m not saying I can predict the future, but it’s pretty easy to see that as the book The Fourth Turning suggests, something pretty fucking huge is going to happen “before 2025.” The thing about catastrophe is if you’re lucky, in the end ,there is some sort of redemption. It doesn’t make it “worth it,” because it’s a fucking avoidable tragedy, but it does at least force people to pick a direction, any direction.

As such, the impending 2024 global catastrophe at least will slice the Gordian Knot of a number of systemic issues that have been brewing for some time now. If we come out the other side and the “good guys” win, then huge swaths of problems that we currently see as immutable and intractable will be solve in a rather abrupt manner. If the “bad guys” of MAGA win, those same problems will be solved as well, albeit in the exact opposite manner.

I don’t think enough people realize how dangerous 2024 is going to be for the entire world. It will be a pivotal moment in human history given it’s difficult not to imagine WMD being used not just internationally, but domestically as well. There’s a real chance that America is going to bomb itself into oblivion in some sort of nuclear-tipped civil war.

But the specifics of such an event are extremely murky right now because I just don’t know who would be leading the two sides and what their strengths and weaknesses might be. All I know right now is the United States’ political system is unprepared for the passions of another presidential cycle and the whole thing is going to unravel either into a violent civil war or a decent into autocracy. There will be no middle ground. We, as a nation, will be forced to pick a fate and everyone is going to have to pick a side. The choice will be stark and terrifying when it happens. There’s a reason why, “May you live in interesting times” is a curse.

A lot of things we worry so much about now will be looked back upon as comical. It’s difficult to be offended at every little slight when you’ve lived through a civil war where 20-30 million people have died. And, alternately, if we turn into an autocracy, you’ll be so worried about avoiding ICE agent thugs that the notion of “cancel culture” will seem rather quaint.

If you want to be hopeful, you can say at least there’s the chance for a “renewed American Covenant” if there’s a civil war. That is, of course, is if there’s a clean ending. If it’s murky, then the United States will split into two nations that absolutely hate each other. Though, I have to note that it’s possible that the entire map of North America might be redrawn in the event of a Second American Civil War.

It’s difficult to imagine that Canada (and NATO) wouldn’t get drawn into a Second American Civil War if it actually happened.

The point is — you have about four years to prepare for a Second American Civil War and / or World War 3. Millions may die. The old order will end and something new will arise from the ashes. It’ll either be a New Dawn or a dystopian hellscape.

No fate but what we make, as they say.

Weimar America’s Fourth Turning


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have to be honest with ourselves. America’s political system is rotting to the point that it’s undead. And once our politics isn’t undead but just, well, dead, then we’re in deep trouble.

The events of 2020 were so unique that what should have happened — Trump being re-elected — didn’t happen. But the systemic rot within our political system that allowed Trump’s rise is still very much there. Now, I’m reading a book called The Fourth Turning which, on the face of it, seems to jibe very well with my own predictions for America’s future.

The book says that “before 2025” there will be a major crisis on a par with WW2. I agree, and, yet, I’m growing ever-more leery of how certain the book is with its predictions. There’s no reveled truth and I don’t think there’s anything all that special about America’s “13th generation.” The whole thing smacks too much of New Age pseudoscience for people like Steve Bannon for my liking. There’s something just a little bit too on-the nose for what the book claims about the ebb and flow of history.

Seems like there’s a lot of reverse-engineering on the author’s part. They came up with an idea and changed it as necessary to sell books.

Anyway, having said all that, I have to give them credit — what they say about America’s fate ‘before 2025″ definitely really does jibe with my own predictions.

The thing about Trump as a serious political figure is what he simply was not capable of doing. All things being equal, he really should have strangled our liberal democracy in the months leading up to the 2020 election. In fact, that he didn’t do so is one of the more unexpected political events of the 21st Century. He had America spread eagle in front of him, ready for him to remake her in his own imagine…and he choked.

From a macro political standpoint, it’s nothing short of surreal.

So, if you combine the pandemic, Joe Biden being very moderate and Trump being a huge ding-dong, America was spared from tyranny for at least another four years.

And, yet, it’s only four years.

I just don’t see America lasting through the passions of another presidential cycle. The country is either going to implode into a vicious, bloody civil war or descend into a fascist managed democracy where people like me either get pushed out of windows for not shutting up or put in an ICE camp for the very same thing.

What’s more, under either option there’s probably going to be World War III because the United States is either going to be too busy destroying itself or our new autocrat will pull all our troops out of our bases across the globe.

Something very unexpected would have to happen to prevent such a fate. It’s not like we can punt our systemic political problems down the road forever. The Republican Party hates democracy, POC and women and it’s only a matter of time before they start to draw very heavily from the fascist playbook.

That will either cause a civil war or they’ll be successful in turning us into a managed democracy like they have in Russia. I honestly don’t have any ready answers for any of this.

The simple answer is to leave the country now if you have the opportunity and means. The more complicated answer is, well, YOLO. The moment the Republicans take over Congress in 2022, the fuse will be lit for The Fourth Turning to happen.

The Second American Civil War & Race


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue of race is the crux of what good old boys drinking a Michelob Light at a bar someone in the South getting a boner about a Second Civil War are oblivious to. Once you leave the realm of politics and enter the realm of war, then the dynamics change significantly.

It’s easy for a Southern state legislature to screw over African American voting rights and to increase their power. It’s not so easy for a would-be secessionist Southern state to deal with the entire African American community fucking shit up because they don’t want to leave the Union.

Let that sink in for a moment.

This is why I struggle to understand why the idea of a Second American Civil War is so fucking appealing to fucking redneck racist cucksuckers. They just aren’t thinking the abstract of this particular situation through very well. So, yeah, it’s really easy to see the lily-white states of Montana, North and South Dakota, etc, getting pretty far with any ideas of leaving the Union so they can avoid being canceled.

But the place where this new CSA would get its actual population, where it would get its ability to be a viable nation — the South — would descend into a race war extremely quickly the moment any secessionist crisis began in earnest. So, you would have a situation where a number of states in the Mountain area would “leave” the Union only to be crushed and the South that would be, uhhh, “indisposed” as African Americans burned it to the ground because they refuse to be slaves again.

The African American community in the South is just too big and too big a portion of the overall population for it to be ignored in any serious attempt at secession on the part of Southern states. I can even tell you how the US government could “incentivize” that community to fuck shit up — tell them they will get reoperations for slavery if they do so and the Union successfully wins the war.

This is not to say there aren’t plenty of scenarios where this particular issue can be at least mitigated, but it has to be factored in no matter what. As such, any real Second American Civil War would likely be far messier and bloody than the Good Old Boys whistling Dixie may think. If you throw in stolen WMD along with an honest-to-God race war in the South then it grows more and more obvious that maybe we shouldn’t have a civil war.

And, what’s more, all fucking cocksucker rednecks in the South have to do is just fucking be patient and they get what they want — a white Christian ethno state. If they just play by the rules and be patient, then they can crush what remains of our liberal democracy peacefully and I get pushed out a window by an ICE agent some time post 2025 because I will not, can not shut up.

The only thing I can compare modern America to is Europe right before World War I when everyone lulzed the idea of a major war. In fact, everyone wanted such a war for various reasons.

So, in the end, if we don’t turn into an autocracy, we’re probably going to nuke ourselves out of existence because…cancel culture?

Preparing For The 2024 Cataclysm


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m not smart enough to give you any pithy words of advice about how to prepare for what I believe will be the massive clusterfuck of 2024-2025. There are plenty of books out there like “On Tyranny” that give you basic, practical steps you can do over the coming years.

For my part, I’m working on a novel that I hope is just enough of a success that it allows me to get the fuck out the country before 2024 rolls around.

But, for the moment, that’s being rather delusional, so what I believe is now a near-absolute future history fact — the 2024 choice between autocracy and civil war is probably going to get me just like everyone else.

The issue for me is, I’m delusional and stubborn enough to know that should the 2024 cataclysm happen I will face one of two fates: either I get pushed out a window by an ICE agent or I become a part of some sort of real-world-risk-your-life Resistance to the rise of old school fascism in the United States.

Again, let me repeat — I’m well aware that I’m being delusional. But I love to run scenarios and it’s easy for me to imagine a situation where I would find myself in, like, I dunno, the Free State of New York City after the civil war starts and I get noticed by the Commune leaders.

I know I’m being delusional, you don’t have to tell me.

Or, put another way, I have a very specific skillset that would fit in the chaos of any type of massive social upheaval. I thrive in chaos and if things have gotten as bad as I fear they will, then there’s a least a chance I might be given the opportunity to rise to the occasion.

But there’s always the chance that we’ll go the autocratic route, I get noticed by the autocracy and get pushed out a window while caught unaware. We’re just still too far out from 2024 for me to be able to have any sense of which direction the country will go. Make no mistake, however, the country is going to pick a direction. It’s just a matter of figuring out if it’s civil war or autocracy.

I will note also, however, that any number of known unknowns could punt this particular choice down the road again. As I keep saying, we could have a war with the DPRK. Or Elon Musk could kill the trucking industry and cause a complete scramble of our political parties as the far Left and the far Right join forces to go after Big Tech.

One thing is clear, however, enjoy this moment in our history. It’s the quiet before the storm. Either get out of the country while you still can or, I don’t know, begin to think up some sort of practical method to combat the chaos that is going to happen around late 2024.

Good luck.

Running The Second American Civil War Scenario


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I get most of my traffic these days from good old boys in the South stroking one out to the idea of The South Shall Rise Again via all my dystopian hellscape ideas about what a Second American Civil War would be like.

With that in mind, let’s run such a scenario updated for what’s likely to be happening in late 2024.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

Slave states attempted to leave the Union because they felt the Free Soil movement in the guise of the Republican Party was politically acendant to the point that they would not continue to get unfettered expansion of slavery. Meanwhile, today, Blue states would leave the Union when it became clear that to remain in the Union would be to agree to a fascist autocracy.

I’m not saying this will happen, but I am saying there is a certain logic as to why when the crisis arrives in 2024, there will be three potential endgames — autocracy, civil war or military junta.

If what happened in 2020 is any indication, the first sign that we would have that something was amiss would be on the local level. Instead of people who simply do their job as Americans and do the rather perfunctory duty of certifying the win of A Democrat, this doesn’t happen. In crucial voting districts all across swing states, Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” either refuse to certify the win of A Democrat, or they go so far as to YOLO things and switch the win to Trump. And, remember, all of this would be happening in the context of SCOTUS having agreed with the radical “independent legislature” concept that would give state legislatures total and complete control over their administration of elections.

As this happens, the tension in United States escalates day by day. The very rallying cry of MAGA in 2020 — “Stop The Steal” will be adopted by the center-Left when it becomes clear that the MAGA New Right is hell bent on brazenly stealing the 2024 election in broad daylight.

But remember, the center-Left has a very different personality than the MAGA New Right. The center-Left, for all it’s problems with “cancel culture” and being “woke” is still actually connected to reality. So, there would be a struggle between the natural inclination of centrist Liberals to let the “process work” and Leftists who would want to burn everything to the ground given how corrupted everything had become.

All of this turmoil on the local level would find elections in crucial states thrown into the political realm where MAGA state legislatures and Secretary’s of State would begin to actively ensure that A Democrat is prevented from winning. Every day between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 things would grow more and more unstable in the United States as it became clear that Bannon’s long-planned “administrative coup” was actually going to work.

There would be mass confusion. Lots of lawsuits

And, remember, if Trump is involved, as all of this is going on, he would do everything in his personal power to rile up both sides. If his ongoing, progressive cognitive decline has gotten bad enough, he might even go transactional.

It would be around this point that I could see Blue governors begin to make serious plans to leave the Union. A lot would depend on what California was willing to do. But it would definitely make sense that California would be the first state to call a Secessionist Convention in preparation of leaving the Union if the 2024 election is, in fact, stolen.

But by some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you could see some sort of summit of Blue Governors where they debate their plans to leave the Union if the very thing that the MAGA New Right wants — to turn the United States into an autocracy — actually happens.

And as we approached Certification Day in January 2025, the last step in the crisis would happen. If you thought Certification Day 2021 was bad, just wait until Republicans are actively going over and above what they did then when it rolls around in 2025. So, the system will have been corrupted at both the local and state level. And then if that doesn’t work, Republicans will again try to throw the election into the House and Senate to buy time, if nothing else.

So, let me be clear — anyone who thinks we’re going to have some sort of MAGA New Right revolution a la The Turner Diaries — is a fool. Any Second American Civil War we have is probably going to be started by Blue States leaving the Union out of disgust that the fix is in.

Therefore, by the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, it could very well be a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a pretty organized civil war. Republicans have no shame and don’t apparently care about the consequences of their actions, so, lulz, we could find ourselves in the absolute worst of worlds because not only are states actively thinking about leaving the Union around this time, but the whole process of figuring out who is POTUS will be languishing in Congress. Republicans, because they are politically blood thirsty and will cheat, will win the power struggle, but there’s a chance states will begin leaving the Union.

It won’t be deranged, individual MAGA New Right blowing stuff up in some sort of rearguard action. It’s going to be a Blue Nation verses a Red Nation. A lot of the same things that happened in the First American Civil War will happen in the second. The U.S. Military will implode as people from Blue States leave it to establish a new Blue State military.

But one thing we have to expect in late 2024 to early 2025 is a mass migration of people across the country as people no longer feel safe living in an area of the country that doesn’t fit their politics. It could be rather frightening.

If it were, God forbid, to happen, I would guess that a Second American Civil War will begin between Certification Day 2025 and Inauguration Day 2025. In other words, as Trump is being sworn in, mass chaos will have erupted across the United States.

Once the hollowed out American military turns it attention to the Blue rebellion at the behest of Trump, it won’t be too long before WMD are sized and used by both sides. Not only would America bomb itself into oblivion with its eyes wide open, but it will be done in the context of WW3 definitely breaking out across the globe because the US will be too busy imploding to ensure the continuation of the post WW2 global order.

How’s that for a New World Order.

So, here goes. Here’s how the individual states would handle A Second American Civil War, probably starting in late 2024 when it becomes clear that Reds are going to brazenly steal the election. I don’t think this is going to happen — I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy — but it is at least possible. I’m NOT going to do every state because, lulz, I don’t know the internal politics of each state well enough to do it right.

California

If Blues really decide to have a National Divorce, it will be California that probably is at the forefront serving the papers. And the key issue is — war aims. I think at first the war aims of the Blues will be to simply start, say, the United States of Canada. It will only be much later in any conflict that Blues get sucked into fighting the longer-term goal of maybe establishing the United States of North America. And that would happen because Trumplandia could possible begin a Final Solution for POC within its territory and, as such, the second phase of the civil war would be one of liberation. But that’s extremely speculative on my part.

Everything will hinge on what California wants to do. If it simply wants independence for itself, that’s a lot different war than if it joins with other Blue States to establish a new, larger state. But whatever happens once the 2ACW starts, California will be the “Arsenal of Democracy.” If they want to establish a Blue Union, then California would put itself on a war footing. It would call up a few million young men and women into a new Blue Army and away we go. A lot would depend on the state of the US Military, but the case could be made that it might implode, leaving the individual states with the ability to fend for themselves.

California would quickly secure Oregon and Washington then swoop through the plains states to link up with major Blue States in the old Upper Midwest. They would crash into Texas in the south and that would be a Battle Royale, though it’s possible because Texas is shifting blue that Texas might simply implode into an intra-state civil war and Blues could secure the state a lot easier than one might otherwise expect.

But the point is — as goes California, so goes the Blue Union cause.

Texas
Texas is a state that is really difficult to game out because while MAGA has turned into a Red stronghold, on the ground, the state is shifting Blue long term. As such, when our national politics finally collapses and we’re dealing with the existential it’s possible that Texas will simply implode. There could be a massive intra-state civil war that leaves it open to Blue Union forces from the West to swoop in and take it over. Or, at least, a lot of it over. But between when the civil war starts and when Blue Union troops come to the rescue, we could all be talking about the Siege of Austin as MAGA surrounds that particular blue dot in a purple state and want to wipe it off the face of the earth.

In a sense, Texas probably has the most to loose from a 2ACW. Texas would probably be the site of a huge amount of fighting as the difference between the Blue shift in the state’s practical politics slams up against the autocratic state government. Or, put another way, Texas is a lot less stable than you might think. It will likely be the source of a huge amount of domestic political refugees who will either endup in camps, or simply flee the state altogether, only to return when (hopefully) Blues win the civil war and there’s a Second Reconstruction.

Oregon
The thing about this state is it’s ripe for a huge clusterfuck. Of all the places in the Union in the lead up to any potential 2ACW, Oregon is the state I could most likely see some sort of “Troubles” taking place. There could be a pretty bloody Battle of Portland as all the crazed Far Right Militia’s swoop down on the city and decide to end the “Antifa Problem” once and for all. Then, of course, there’s pretty good chance that all of that will be for naught when California troops come from the south and consolidate Blue control over the state. Not that it won’t come at a very, very blood cost. But California is just too powerful not to be able to seize both Oregon and Washington in the early stages of any 2ACW. Even if California simply wants to go it alone, the mass chaos of Oregon might pull them into the state for some sort of peacekeeping mission.

The Plains States

Outside of Texas, the Plaines states may see their fates during a 2ACW largly out of their hands. They could shift from Blue to Red and back again as the two sides fight it out. They have small populations and economies and if California wants to link up with Blue States in the old Upper Midwest, then, they may see their extremely Red politics change in a rather abrupt, violent manner. These states are an example of why it would be so dumb for Red States to want a civil war — the values of small plains states are being forced upon Blue States and Blues aren’t really doing anything about it. But if there was a civil war, the Red Plains States would be forced to change their ways rather quickly.

The Old CSA (At least some of it.)
At first, a number of states of the old CSA would explode into joy if there was a 2ACW. States like Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina would have you believe they are already half way out of the Union as it is because of the evil libtard “groomers” and, as such, if Blue States left the Union the populations of the old CSA states would be very, very happy. But. And this is a big but, as the war progressed and everything went to shit there would be a natural inclination on the part of white Christians in these states to make POC scape goats. There would be a rapid radicalization of the politics of these states to the point that something akin to a race war might break out. Or, if not that, then at least Nazi-style concentration camps would be established with the aim of enacting a Final Solution once and for all. This would, in turn freak the Blue States out to the point that even if they were free of the United States, they might rejoin the battle simply to stop the Final Solution from happening. This is all extremely speculative, of course, but I’m simply gaming out what already exists and then assume the worse.

Florida
I used to think that Florida would break up into about three states, given how diverse it is, but no more. I think it would be a fully autocratic state under DeSantis — even if he was POTUS at this point — and a lot of young men from Florida would face up against young men (and women) from California as the war progressed and got worse and worse for everyone concerned. The already fucked up politics of Florida would grow significantly more radical to the point that it was a one party fascist state.

Georgia
The thing about Georgia is Atlanta. If there was a 2ACW, then it’s possible that within the state it would be Atlanta versus everyone else. Atlanta would be a very Blue stronghold and the rest of the state would be so Red that it could all get very bloody. Of course, Blue forces from outside the state could swoop in at some point and help take stabilize the situation.

Virginia
As I’ve said the last time I wrote this scenario up, Virginia is two states that hate each other. Of all the states of the Union that might find destruction as part of a 2ACW, Virginia is at the top of the list — even more so than Texas. The state would collapse into coups and counter coups. The rural Red parts of the state would go all Pol Pot on the Blue parts of the state and there would be a lot of political scores settled by extremely radicalized rural Reds who wanted to make sure drag queens of the woke cancel culture mob could never teach their kids critical race theory again. I wish I was joking or exaggerating, but I’m not.

Heartland

The so-called “American Heartland” is where the worst fighting of any 2ACW would take place. States like Ohio and Indiana would be diehard supporters of Trumplandia and they just would not go down without a fight. It would be the type of fighting not seen since the end of WW2. And it would be happening in what was once the most stable country in the world. As I’ve mentioned, a lot would depend on what Blue war aims were. If they just wanted to start the USoC, then my dark fears probably won’t happen. But if, for some reason, those war aims change and the issue becomes bringing the US back together again (probably with Canada by this point) then, well, all bets are off. It would be a very bloody pitched battle.

New York City

A 2ACW might be a tale of two cities for NYC. On one hand, there’s a chance NYC could become something akin to a Free City and on the other it could get nuked by Trumplandia. Any 2ACW would probably see the city flooded with refugees, maybe even including yours truly. But one thing is for sure — the long term tension between Upstate New York and NYC will grow in the event of a 2ACW to the point that NYC may break away politically in some way. Update New York has a lot of room for political refugees and, as such, you could see the population of some of the Update New York cities might balloon as a result.

New England
I think in the even of a 2ACW that New England would be flooded with political refugees to an unprecedented extent. People fleeing all parts of Trumplandia would go to New England, potentially in hopes of getting across the border to Canada. Should the Blue Union unite with Canada, then, of course, that dynamic would change.

In closing, I would note three things. There’s not going to be a 2ACW if Blues don’t have any leadership. They currently have no effective leadership, so a lot of abrupt heroes would have to bubble up to the surface once it became clear that Blues had to leave the Union. Also, all of what I’ve described above has to be taken into the context of very real possibility that WMD would be used by both sides as the war progressed. And, remember, if the United States is too busy bombing itself into oblivion, then the prospect of a “Great Reset” in the guise of WW3 is a very, very real possibility.

2025: Life In Autocratic America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I predict that 2024 will be one of the most significant years in American political history. America will face a stark choice — autocracy or civil war. There will be no middle ground. Everyone will have to make a choice, pick a side.

Right now, I simply can’t predict which direction America will go. Will we implode post election day 2024 into civil war or our our zombie liberal democracy finally just be dead instead of undead.

But let’s take a moment to imagine what life in autocratic America might be like should we not have a civil war.

One thing to consider is, even as our politics finally slides into a Russian-style managed democracy it’s possible that on the cultural side nothing will change. It’s possible that in an effort to prevent any kind of organized opposition to our new fascist government that some of the darker things I fear that might happen won’t happen — at least for a lot longer than one might imagine.

The reason why I say this is Trump was a would-be autocrat and because we had zero political will to do anything about him, there was something of a draw. Trump had political power and cultural power was given over the the center-Left. Trump had “hard” power and people like the late night talk show hosts had soft power.

If that happened again, I would come across as Chicken Little — again — to traditional conservatives who would continue to rant about Cancel Culture and how liberals run everything.

And, yet, form follows function, so it’s easy to imagine President Cotton or President Hawley taking things to the next level and lurching us towards a true fascist state. It’s easy to imagine a point during the 2025-2030 era where there would be an aggressive purge of media outlets, probably via threatening their broadcast licenses.

Once that was accomplished, then the rest takes care of itself. The already existent ICE camp infrastructure is weaponized and ICE starts to push people like me out of windows or throw us into camps to be “re-educated.”

In addition, it doesn’t seem too much to imagine that a MAGA fascist president would aggressively pull troops out of various nations across the globe and even, maybe leave NATO. We would become Fortress America and, soon enough, the entire world order would go tits up as various simmering border disputes exploded. There might even be limited nuclear exchanges resulting in hundreds of millions of deaths.

In the end, should the fascists take over, I don’t see them leaving power at any point during my remaining years on this earth. Ultimately, it would be the excesses of such a fascist government that might be its downfall. But the damage would already be done.