Tag: Second American Civil War

2026 Will Suck

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For reasons personal and not so personal, I fear 2026 is going to suck and egg. For my part, my life is going to change in ways I just can’t control starting as early as late this month.

But I also think that 2026, because there’s a mid-term election, is a prime candidate for year we actually have a civil war or (Blue) revolution. I could totally see Trump doing something crazy in regards to the the 2026 midterms and, lulz, the country collapses into a civil war (or Blue Revolution.)

I say this in the context of Trump and MAGA clearly thinking they will never hav to either be held accountable or ever leave office. So, lulz. It could be that 2026 is kind of the very last fish or cut bait for Americans when it comes to what’s left of our democracy.

If Trump really does fuck with the 2026 mid-terms and…nothing happens, then, welp, it was fun while it lasted. We made it barely to 250 years of empire and then it all just faded away into tyranny.

I do hope, however, that I might as early as spring 2026 finish a novel worth querying. And, honestly, I just want to write a novel good enough that the people I send it to…finish it and give me an opinion.

That would be quite an accomplishment, given my history with such things!

We Are All John Bolton Now

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First they came for John Bolton….and the next thing you know they start pushing randos like me out a window.

When that second phase of things happens is anybody’s idea, but it’s going to happen. There’s going to come a point where the US zooms past the Hungary level of autocracy and settle somewhere around Russia’s version.

As such, I think it’s inevitable that that the vise grip of tyranny will grow powerful enough that even nobodies like me get swept up.

It’s going to suck.

One issue, of course, is will things eventually get bad enough that there is some reaction on the part of Blues on a structural basis. I mean, I suppose it’s possible that we could have a civil war or Blue revolution of some sort.

And that would suck even more.

Anyway. I just feel kind of sad about the whole situation.

Worried About The Singularity Making My Scifi Dramedy Novel Moot

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Predicting the near future is tough. I keep putting my self on the edge of what may happen, not knowing if by the time the novel actually comes out it all may seen rather quaint.

But, given what the tip of my technology spear is, I kind of have to indulge in those type of calculated risks.

The big thing I’m most worried about is the idea that the Singularity will happen between that magical time I actually sell the novel and when it actually comes out. That would really suck. The Singularity and a civil war / revolution happening are my two big fears about this novel, over and above if I will ever actually get it sold before I die.

Anyway. It’s just on of those things. My dad said no one ever got anywhere in this world without taking a risk and he was right. So, lulz? I just have to accept that I’ve kind of gotten myself into a situation that I don’t really have any control over. I really like the premise of this novel, but there are some innate, inherent risks associated with writing the type of novel I want to write.

Especially given the way I want to publish it, which is the traditional manner, rather than self-publishing. I will just be glad when this damn thing is over with and I go to the next phase, which is querying.

Trump Is Itching To Declare Martial Law

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really don’t want martial law or civil war. Really. I just want to be able to work on my scifi dramedy novel in peace and quiet and see if maybe I can throw it over the transom and get it published.

Ugh.

And, yet, it definitely seems as though we are careening towards some sort of politically volatile situation. Either Trump gets what he wants, which is someone throwing a Molotov Cocktail at some National Guard troops so he can declare martial law, or things really get out of hand and we have some sort of civil war / revolution.

Double ug.

I don’t know what to tell you. My best guess is if there is a civil war, it might happen either around the 2026 or 2028 elections. That’s when political passions are at their highest “the silly season,” and that would make the most sense for the country finally collapsing into civil war or revolution.

Jesus Christ, do I hope that doesn’t happen.

Civil War / Revolution ‘Problem Areas’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I do not want a civil war. I do not want a revolution. But everyone else seems to have these potential events on the brain, so let’s contemplate some “problem areas.”

The first thing to remember is if things get really bad, and it seems like there is going to be a civil war or revolution, many, many, many people are going to flee their homes so where they actually live fits their politics better. This is going to be not only scary, but the first real sign that the USA is going to implode soon.

And, remember, the nastiness thing about civil war or revolution is all those Blue cities in Red states will be flashpoints for some pretty horrible, horrific events. Many people will die. It’s even possible that crazed rural people will “empty” a city and murder its residents in Kill Fields-like cold blood.

Yikes.

Here are some areas around the country that will be real problems in the event of a civil war or revolution.

  1. Virginia
    This is an obvious problem area. Virginia is two states, one Red, one Blue fused together who hate each other with growing rage. If the country implodes then the state will implode into intra-state political violence. It’s going to be like the Balkans in Virginia with very messy attempts to unite the state one way or another. A lot — A LOT — of people will die needlessly for a very dumb reason
  2. Oregon
    This state also is kind of two states fused together. I don’t know the intra-state politics of Oregon very well, but it’s my impression that its coast is liberal and its interior is conservative. I could see the state imploding like Virginia and a there being a real attempt by the Reds to take Portland out of spite, if nothing else.
  3. Ohio
    This is not as obvious, but Ohio is very much like, say, Poland. It’s got high population density and it’s strategic. It’s also very Red and I could see if Blues somehow got to the point where they were re-uniting the nation under their standard that Ohio would probably be a bloodbath the likes of which have not been seen since WW2.

    And, lastly, remember that if there is a revolution or civil war that WMD will be used by both sides AND there could be a race war in the South. So, there you go. Hopefully we won’t have to think about any of this in any serious way in the real world — ever.

I Don’t Know If We’re Going To Make It

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have a lot of reasons to want us to muddle through the next few years instead of imploding politically. I would, at least, like a shot at querying a novel without having to worry about dodging bullets and bombs.

But I do worry. A lot.

I worry that Trump is going to fuck with the 2026 and / or 2028 elections to such an extent that Blues finally have enough and fight back in a way a little bit more dramatic than an angry Twitter thread.

Trump seems hell bent on crashing the American ship of state into the biggest iceberg he can find as soon as possible. Things are quickly getting out of control and if Trump finally figures out a way to invoke the Insurrection Act or even martial law — oh boy.

Things are really very unstable in the United States right now and there is no ready explanation of what the endgame is. Everything from martial law to Trump running for an illegal third term to outright civil war / revolution is on the table at the moment.

And, like I said, I just want to be able to query my novel in peace. That should not be too much to ask

America Really Is A House Divided At The Moment

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The case could be made that, in hindsight, it will look inevitable that the USA collapsed into chaos directly because of the actions of malignant ding-dong Trump.

But it hasn’t happened yet, so there’s that.

Having said that, just from eyeballing my Tik-Tok feed, it continues to be clear that the cultural and political forces tearing the nation apart show no signs of abating.

On one hand, we have Chappell Roan going into graphic detail about lesbian sex in her longs and on the other, we have grown men carrying around huge crosses at the Charlie Kirk funeral. What the fuck?

There just seems to be some pretty big structural problems within the USA that are just growing deeper and more complicated. I can’t help but think of the photos you see every once in a while of Iranian women in mini-skirts just months before the revolution changed everything.

I fear something like that will happen in the US, if in a more localized way. Like, if there was a big reaction on the part of Blues when Trump fucks with the 2026 Federal election, the Red parts of the country might have some sort of fucked-up counter revolution.

Ugh.

I have written AT GREAT FUCKING LENGTH since the advent of this blog about my personal fears about a civil war or revolution and, to date, nada. So, if anything, that should temper my fears some. I clearly can’t predict the future, so, lulz?

Augustus Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Say what you will about malignant ding-dong Trump, there is definitely going to be a “before” and “after” America when it comes to him. There are, of course, still a few lingering issues that I can’t game out.

The one that is zooming towards us is what will Blues do when Trump does something like declare a state of emergency so he can fuck with Federal elections. While I have a hunch he’s probably going to leave state and local elections largely enough, he’s totally going to everything his power to ensure there are not free and fair Federal elections.

There is something of a spectrum on the matter, I guess.

On one end of the spectrum, Trump fucks with elections and…nothing happens. There are protests, but no general direct action. Nothing that really catches the attention of the regime. We just grow accustomed to the idea that our votes won’t correctly be tallied and that will be that.

We will become a zombie democracy like Hungary and then the real issue is how far will MAGA tyranny go. Will we become, eventually, something akin to Russia or not? Will ICE inevitable mission creep into an SS-like organization take place and the next thing you know nobodies like me are rounded up for telling Trump to fuck off on blogs like this, or not?

That’s one end of things.

One the OTHER end of things is something akin to a civil war / revolution on the part of Blues. I just don’t see Blues wanting to leave the Union in some sort of National Divorce. I do, however, see the potential for rolling, massive uprisings, probably lead by the political leadership of California.

That is kind of scary and I don’t want that because even though I consider myself a “survivor,” I sure don’t like the idea of having to dodge bombs and bullets. I suppose, if things get bad enough, I won’t feel safe where I live and I’ll have to head north or something.

I really, really don’t want to have to do that.

But it will be interesting to see how much sand the MAGA Right can kick into the eyes of Blues before there is some sort of reaction.

Trans Rights Is Such A Political Clusterfuck

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Two things can be true at the same time. The “woke cancel culture mob” HAS been a little bit too touchy about certain elements of the Trans movement — especially the whole “protect trans kids” AND Trump is demagoguing the whole thing because the base demands it.

The MAGA base has a surreal fixation on Trans people to an absurd degree. Some of this comes, I think, from how they know the whole thing (especially the nearly-non existant “Trans kids”) is kind of the political clit of the woke Left.

Now, some context.

Just in the last few days it’s hit home that I have a vested interest in assuring Trans peoples some level of dignity — the moment MAGA rounds up Trans people and puts them in camps, guess who’s next: ME. And people like me.

So, as a member of the kook community, I really am growing nervous about my fate as it is grow more and more clear how dire things are growing for Trans people. I just don’t see how this doesn’t end with Trans people in camps. Maybe it will be the Trans issue that causes the inevitable mission creep for ICE.

Cause, you know that’s going to happen. Form follows function and soon enough ICE is going to become an American SS. They will start to round up any one considered either “an enemy of the state” or unworthy of life.

Now there is something else to consider. As it stands, the USA is in something of a political luminal space. We’re an “anocracy” to be exact. There is going to come a point when we go full-blown autocracy and then, well, all bets are off. The USA in 2025 is not Germany in 1933.

We’re far more diverse, decentralized and have a far stronger traditional of being a liberal democracy.

So, if we go full autocracy, there is going to — finally — be some sort of reaction on the part of Blues. And that’s when things will get messy. Very messy.

And, tragically, many, many people may die for no damn reason other than MAGA bigots are paranoid about the browning of America and a small sliver of the population that is Trans.

Ugh.

Charlie Kirk Is A MAGA Martyr — Now What

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to tell you folks. Form follows function and MAGA, like Nazism, apparently craves a martyr and now it has one in the guise of Charlie Kirk.

The issue for me is I wish we wouldn’t do so much “who shot John” in regards to the motives of the shooter and just follow wherever the facts took us. But the MAGA Right has an established orthodoxy, an established narrative, and they have the political and media clout to make it the official story.

Ugh.

As I keep saying, the great irony of all of this is MAGA is ascendant. All they have to do is just be fucking patient and they will get the white, autocratic Christian ethnostate they are rabidly desiring.

If they don’t cool their heels for just a few short years, they really risk letting loose centrifugal forces that will tear the country apart. Or, if noting else, cause the two sides to actually go to war to figure out which vision of America will be used going forward.

I still have my doubts about Blues states wanting to leave the Union. That’s not their vibe. But a revolution on the other hand, yeah, maybe. That’s a possibility.

And that’s the crux of the crucial thing that MAGA is obvious to. The USA is not Germany in 1933 and it is not going to be nearly as easy to make America a Nazi state. The country is too diverse, has too strong a tradition of democracy and too decentralized for that to happen very easily.

MAGA is going to have to fight for it.