Tag: Second American Civil War

America On Edge 2026

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely feels like the USA is…on edge at the moment. It’s as if we’re all waiting for the other shoe to drop, for something even BIGGER to happen.

I don’t know what that might be, but there is such turmoil in the American political system that it could just about anything. Whatever it is, it might be pretty big.

I could see Trump literally trying to arrest a governor — of Minnesota? — just out of his surreal, bonkers spite. I could see the some pretty surreal things happen before the year is over, especially because of the 2026 midterms.

But hopefully, none of that will happen. Hopefully, we’ll just muddle through like we always do and the Main Event will be sometime in the 2028-2029 timeframe when ASI and civil war / revolution happen at just about the same time.

Sigh.

Blues Are Radicalizing…Just A Tiny Bit

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Blues, because of the surreal nature of modern American politics, are the keepers of the establishment. And, as such, it’s kind of difficult for them to get too radicalized. But we need “radical moderates” right now and it will be interesting to see if Blues start to get angry.

For my own part, I’ve not grown more radical, but I have begun to psyche myself up for the possibility of getting the shit beat out of me by ICE for just being at the wrong place at the wrong time.

I’m a man of peace, a man of ideas — I hate violence and guns — but I do have principles and as such, if I’m not doing anything wrong and ICE comes after me I’m going to stand my ground. I’d rather die on my feet a free man than live my life on my knees a slave, as the old saying goes.

But one thing I will acknowledge is the country is kind of on edge right now. And if there are more murders on the part of ICE…I don’t know what to tell you. Some unexpected and surreal things might happen.

It could be that Trump gets his way and there’s enough of an uprising in Blue states because of ICE thuggery that he declares not just the use of the Insurrection Act but actual martial law.

And then because he’s nuts, he may attempt — attempt — to cancel the 2026 midterms. Now THAT would be interesting.

A Greater Than Zero Chance Of A Civil War / Revolution In The USA By The End Of 2026…Exists…Maybe

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We seem to be careening towards a dark and unknown shore. Trump grows more and more bonkers, seemingly by the moment. And, so, it definitely seems at least possible that — probably because of the 2026 elections — the USA has some sort of severe political disruption up to and including civil war / revolution.

Now, I have been talking such “hysterical doom shit” for years and years now and nothing has happened — in large part because Republicans have gotten what they wanted and so they have had no need to rebel (for the most part)

So, as such, if there is any sort of civil war / revolution, it will be because Blues have had enough and there’s a major uprising. I still have my doubts that such a thing will happen, but…I have to admit that I’m growing a little uneasy.

Trump keeps poking the bear, as it were, and there may come a point when Blues have had enough and they finally fight back. How exactly that “fighting back” might show itself is any’s one’s guess.

It will be interesting to see how things progress, going forward.

Not Even Lincoln During The American Civil War Canceled Elections

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is a lot of talk on the Left on Twitter about Trump potentially “cancelling” the 2026 midterms. I just don’t see that happening. I could totally see him fucking with the elections so they’re not free and fair — but canceling? Nah.

But I do believe that if Trump fucked with the elections in some big way that that, in itself, would cause a revolution / civil war. I think it’s possible that Trump might declare martial law in some Blue states and — gulp — even maybe start arresting political leaders in those states as well.

And THAT would DEFINITELY start a civil war / revolution.

And remember, it will be the Blues who start any civil war / revolution. Reds have no need to because they’re politically ascendent and all they have to do is be patient and let fascism fully take hold.

Martial Law In The USA Because Of The 2026 Midterms Seems Like A Real Possiblity

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The only reason why I bring up the possibility of martial law because of the 2026 midterms is Trump keeps pushing the Overton Window farther and father down the road — moving the goal posts.

So, now, he’s talking about using the Insurrection Act in Minnesota, but by the time the 2026 midterms roll around, it could be he will want to invoke martial law so he can “cancel” the elections or something just as devious.

If he does that, then, of course, all bets are off.

We could have a massive popular uprising in the USA not seen since the American Civil War. Or something. Something really bad WILL happen if Trump fucks with the 2026 midterms.

All the conditions for Trump to do something untoward around the 2026 midterms are there. Trump doesn’t want to get impeached again and if it looked like there might be a “Blue Wave” that could take even the Senate to the point that Trump might be convicted if impeached, then, yeah, I could see Trump “canceling” elections.

Sick, Sad World: We Can’t Even Agree On Facts Anymore

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Our political system has gotten so tightly wound that we can’t even agree on basic facts. Now, obviously, this is not new — we all saw what happened on January 6th, 2021 and yet, well, you know.

The latest incident is, of course, the cold blooded murder of Renee Good in Minnesota by a thug ICE agent. We all saw the same thing, and, yet, the MAGA interpretation of what happend — because of fucking Trump — is totally deranged relative to what I saw.

This is yet another example of something that if you told me we were going to have a civil war and or revolution soon in the USA, then, yeah, I would say that it was obvious it was going to happen in hindsight.

You just can’t have a functioning polity if the two sides are so divided that they can’t agree on what the fuck reality is. I still think that if there’s a civil war or revolution, it will be not from the Right, but from the Left. The Left will finally, finally get radicalized enough to the point that it finally does something about all the bullshit that the MAGA Right has been up to.

But the center-Left is such a bunch of wussies and there is so much slack in the system — at least in center-Left echo chamber — that….I think ultimately we become a fascist state and that it is that.

Vague Imagining of WW3 (And Second American Civil War or Revolution)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The skies are overcast where I live and that has gotten me thinking about WW3. Now, let me be clear that I’m not talking about a full exchange between the US and Russia, but rather a limited exchange between, say, India and Pakistan.

Now, even more context.

The only way I could see WW3 happening is if the US collapses into civil war and or revolution. I really don’t know if the US is going to have a civil war or revolution, it at the moment there’s a greater than zero chance that it happening.

In my imagination, what I think might happen is the US collapses into chaos, bombs itself into oblivion and then we come out the other side expecting the world to be the same.

That, of course, will not have happened.

But, of course, there is another way that WW3 could happen — it’s possible that the DPRK might grow unstable to the point that they start lobbing H-bombs at the USA. Now THAT would be dark. People don’t appreciate that the DPRK has the means, motive and opportunity to make life hell in the USA if something goes wrong there.

If the DPRK did blow up a major American city with a H-bomb, that would definitely set off WW3 one way or another because China would probably get involved.

Anyway, all of this is very vague, but the issue is I’m definitely thinking about WW3 at the moment.

Second American Civil War (or Revolution), 2026?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have pontificated so much on the possibility of a civil war or revolution to the point that it’s kind of silly for me to talk about it. But, let’s do it anyway.

I just don’t think there will be a civil war in the United States in 2026. Americans are not French and, as such, they are very, very docile. It takes a lot — A LOT — to rile them up.

The only possible way I could maybe, just maybe see a civil war (or revolution) in the USA this year is if Trump actively fucked with the 2026 midterms to the point that he invoked the Insurrection Act or even declared martial law. If he declared martial law and tried to actually cancel the 2026 midterms, then, yes, we will have a civil war in the second half of this year.

But, otherwise, I just don’t see it.

Now, while we’re on the subject, I do think that if Trump ran for an illegal third term in 2028, then, yeah, that would cause a civil war or revolution. Big time. But, at the same time, I think Trump’s personal historical reason to exist on a macro basis is to destroy the existing Constitutional order to the point that we may have to convene a Constitutional Convention to fix things once he finally, finally leaves the stage.

But all of that is very, very speculative.

I will note that I have long thought that if there’s a civil war, it will because Blues have had enough, not because of Reds — why would Reds want a civil war, they’re politically ascendant.

Anyway, I can’t predict the future.

I Just Don’t Think We’re Ever Having Free-And-Fair Elections Again In My Lifetime

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump is not governing like he ever expects Republicans to ever be out of office again. And, as such, I think this is it. The USA as we’ve known it for 250 years is over. The end, no more.

For the rest of my life, the USA will become poorer and more introverted while the wealthy grow richer and richer. I will also note that I think Trump’s historical purpose is to destroy the Constitutional system to the point that we are forced to hold a Constitutional Convention — at some point — to fix things.

Just imagine of Trump ran for an illegal third term and some (Red) states put him on the ballet, while some (Blue) states did not. If that’s not a recipe for a revolution and or civil war, I don’t know what is.

But, then, I think, Trump and MAGA would finally get what they wanted — the total destruction of what’s left of liberal democracy in America.

The ‘K Shaped’ Economy Is Real

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Man, am I broke as hell. But content. (For the most part.) Anyway, there really does seem to be two Americas at the moment. There are the Rich and there are the Poor.

The Rich are doing well and doing better. They fly all over the place. They have smug conversations on their podcasts about things poor fucks like me could never afford to do.

Then…there is everyone else.

Now, the great irony, of course, is Trump is a leech that is sucking the poor dry to the benefit of the Rich.

All of this makes me a little nervous. I’m a little nervous that the USA is a lot more unstable than we all might otherwise imagine. On a macro basis, all the conditions are there for the USA to collapse into revolution and chaos, especially if we can’t get our act together and default on our debt.

Then all the rich fucks are going to realize maybe they should have been a little less quick to accept all the fucking tax cuts that Trump demanded. But I think it’s just human nature.

For every season, turn, turn as they say