Tag: Second American Civil War

MAGA’s Obsession With Banning Contraception Is Extremely Dangerous & Corrosive

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Oh boy. It is clear to me that MAGA Nazis want to replace the Administrative State with the Moralistic State. The great irony of it all is, of course, if you talk to a lot of Traditionalists they will lulz the idea that MAGA Nazis would come after birth control.

They simply don’t believe it possible.

What makes all of this such a fucking clusterfuck is contraception is, at its heart, not only a moralistic issue, but also an economic one. The thing about the fucking MAGA Nazis is the vessel for their tyranny is ding-dong Trump who could very well, unto himself, cause the collapse of the United States into chaos and anarchy.

Any other Republican in Trump’s historical position could easily escort the United States into autocracy. They would be smooth about it and gradually consolidate power in such a way that most people who weren’t obsessed with politics wouldn’t even notice.

But the person that history has entrusted with transitioning the US into an autocracy is such a fucking lazy idiot that he could very well be deposed in some way through a Blue Glorious Revolution, which, would, in turn cause a civil war because Red States wouldn’t stand for it.

And, yet, there’s just so much unknown about what may happen in late 2024, early 2025. I spend all this time thinking about the absolute worst possible scenario when it’s possible…lulz, we just kind of muddle through. The only reason why I have my doubts about that is if Trump is re-elected he will go out of his way to push America to the brink of collapse.

The Radicalization Of Traditionalists Is Quite Alarming

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the many signs that the bolts are popping off the United States as we careen towards the 2024 presidential election is the clear radicalization of the otherwise principled Traditionalists in my life. Traditionalists are the backbone of any stable democracy and the idea that they would go full MAGA because of “vibes” is very disturbing.

What I mean by “vibes” is the fact that a lot of Traditionalists don’t have a problem with gay people or abortion, but they feel these things should be done in private and with shame attached. In other words, they just don’t want to have to think about it or talk about it. They know being gay or having an abortion exists, but they see them as a “personal problem” that should be treated as personal disaster.

That’s why Traditionalists in principle are against being gay or having an abortion but they would be cool with it if someone in their family turned out to be gay or if they had to have an abortion. Now, I think this means they’re big ol hypocrites, but lulz, America may have a civil war soon because of these “vibe” issues.

The Traditionalist in my family — who I love dearly — have grown so radicalized that their ONLY red line when it comes to MAGA and Trump is the personal. At the moment, they are willing to give up their American birthright of democracy willfully and with a bit of glee if it means abortion is illegal and trans people magically vanish from any form of public discourse.

When I bring up the idea that Trump may go full tyrant on us if he’s re-elected, they dismiss the idea that such a thing is possible because he was all talk the first time, so it makes sense to them that he would be all talk the second go around. And the, in general, support Trump rounding up undocumented people and putting them in camps….even as they just give you a blank stare when you try to tell them the nitty-gritty of such a plan.

“I just want to be left alone,” is their mantra to the point that they don’t give you a yes-or-no answer when you ask them if they would support a National Divorce should Trump lose the 2024 election.

All of this is very personal to me because I *do* think Trump will go full tyrant if he’s re-elected and, as such, there’s every reason to believe that if Trump builds out the infrastructure round up undocumented people he might throw loud mouth cranks like me into the mix as well.

Then and ONLY THEN, will principled Traditionalists take notice. When I get snatched off the street because I won’t stop calling Trump a fucking cocksucker no matter what, THEN they will begin to have second thoughts about their support of Tyrant Trump.

If that is in fact the case, the specter of Trump potentially being deposed in some way begins to become a viable scenario. Talk about bonkers! But, wait, it gets worse — if Trump is deposed in some sort of Blue Glorious Revolution, then, of course, Red States would probably leave the Union in protest.

Ugh.

The Great Choke?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On paper, at least, it definitely seems as though we are careening towards a massive fucking political disaster at some point in late 2024, early 2025. And, yet, no one can predict the future so it’s at least possible that should, somehow, Trump lose that instead of having the United States collapsing into civil war…nothing happens.

Because while at the moment it seems as though we’re cruising into a chaotic MAGA autocracy, there IS a chance that Trump might lose. And as I keep saying, we could have severe political violence in late 2024, early 2025 no matter what happens. Win or lose, Trump could destroy the United States.

But there IS a chance that we’re all overthinking this. It could be that things just aren’t going to be as dire as I think they may be. I say this because while the Right can spew all the bullshit rhetoric they want online, it’s a huge leap into turning that rhetoric into physical violence in the real world.

Remember, it took months and months of Trump ranting in the lead up to January 6th for Trump to cause an insurrection on January 6th. So…I don’t know. It will be interesting to see how, exactly, things work out the moment we learn that Trump has lost the election.

I do think, however, that there is a greater-than-zero chance — no matter what — we could see political events in late 2024, early 2025 unlike anything we’ve seen since the Civil War.

Things Are Quiet

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things are pretty quiet at the moment. We’ve had a nice few months of pretty much nothing of note going on. There have been a few blips, but nothing that really made us all sit up and take notice.

It make you wonder what is going to happen.

My fear is, of course, some major Black Swan event is going to happen to upend everything. That’s one of the big differences between, say, South Korea and the United States — while things change all the time in South Korea in the US they stay the same for a long time then everything changes suddenly overnight.

Usually, this happens because of a presidential election.

But, in a sense, we’re still stuck in the post 9/11 era. You might be able to make the case that the election of Trump ended that era and, yet, that change was may only superficial.

I do think that everything is going to change one way or another in late 2024, early 2025, probably because of a combination of so-called Fourth Turning with something akin to a Petite Singularity.

Things just can’t stay so meh forever. History abhors a vacuum, just like nature, and it definitely seems as though we’re all just kind of drifting at the moment.

We Risk Becoming An Autocracy Because People Care More About Inflation Than The Abstract Of Democracy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have long said that the United States is currently an autocracy without an autocrat. The only thing stopping us from sliding peacefully into Hungary-like autocracy is, well, the fact that Democrats are in power.

Once that changes, that’s all she wrote. We become an autocracy.

This really hit home when I recently had one of my monthly political debates with a far more conservative relative — whom I love dearly. They’ve been completely radicalized because of the culture wars and a general sense of being put upon by the “woke cancel culture mob.”

They have an extensive permission structure built out in their minds for various reasons, but to put a fine point on it, they simply hate the vibes and are willing to vote for a fascist like Trump if that means white Christians can have some security in what they feel is a increasingly secular — and gay — America where not enough of those sweet, sweet white babies are being born.

I’m obviously joking and exaggerating, but that is, in a sense what is going on. White Christians don’t like the direction country is going so they latch on things like the price of groceries when what is really going on is they feel weirded out that some women aren’t ashamed of having abortions and gay people becoming more noticeable.

That’s the thing that is so interesting about what’s going on — I get the sense that a lot of white Christians don’t really have a problem with abortion or being gay, but they DO have a problem with having to talk about it. And, of course, they hate how they feel smug Twitter liberals look down on them.

All of this is the culmination of decades of macro trends all coming together at once — The Fourth Turning, if you will.

So here we are. Waiting around for autocracy to come to America. That’s the general trend at the moment — America is heading towards a white Christian ethnostate one way or another.

Of course, the great irony is that because Trump is the vessel for these macro trends that some pretty surreal, unprecended things MIGHT happen in late 2024, early 2025.

Maybe. I can’t predict the future. But the CONDITIONS are there for some pretty fucked up shit to happen. There is a non-zero chance that Trump gets elected and is so fucking bad at being the person responsible for transitioning us into autocracy that some sort of effort to depose him happens. And if that “Glorious Revolution” is successful, then the specter of a civil war is a real possibility because Red States will get mad and begin to leave the Union.

It’s sad that everything is so fucked up.

Team Biden Really Needs To Work On Its ‘Border Crisis’ Messaging

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My most recent political conversation with my far more conservative relative — whom I love dearly — was extremely alarming for a number of reasons. This was the first time when it was clear to me that they were so radicalized that they were all-in for the type of Christian Nationalism that Trump and MAGA features.

My relative — who I feel should know better — has established an extensive permission structure for them to vote for the fascist Trump. Now, this relative — who I love dearly — loves to wallow in the culture wars. That’s why they loved Ron “Tiny-D” DeSantis so much.

Now that Tiny-D is out of the picture, they’ve become a hard core Trump supporter. This is a prime example of how Trump the idea is far more potent than Trump the man.

The curious thing about this situation is the energy for my relative’s conversion to MAGA comes from his outrage over the “crisis at the border.” Yes, my relative has bought into the Fox News-constructed outrage over the “woke cancel culture mob” and the “gay agenda,” but, at the core of their support for MAGA is their concern over what’s going on at the border.

What bothers me my relative keeps asking, “Why doesn’t Biden do something?” and I kind of struggle to give any cogent answer. My relative totally ignores my pointing out that Biden “tried to do something” about the border, only to get shot down because Trump wants to run on that crisis.

As such, my intelligent, college educated Traditionalist relative is willing to end 250 years of American democracy because they’ve established in their mind an extensive permission structure based on what they see as Biden’s inability to do anything about the “crisis at the border.”

This is very alarming!

What’s more, when remind my relative about all the tyrannical things that Trump has made very clear he will do given a second term, they totally disregard that we should take Trump both seriously and literally. Given that I’m someone who might very well get rounded up when the Trump-branded camps open…yikes.

And, I suppose, the only Red Line for my relative is, well, me. If Trump snatches me off the street because I won’t shut up about how I think Tyrant Trump is a cocksucker, then, well, my well-meaning relative might be given pause for thought. Of course, it will be tool late, then.

It’s clear that the two sides are beginning to harden their positions to the point that there is a non-zero chance that if Trump loses later this year that his possible demand for a National Divorce to stay out of jail may actually get some traction and, lulz, we have a civil war.

When pressed on this particular scenario, my Traditionalist-now-MAGA relative did not really give me an answer as to what they would do which is a “Not, great, Bob,” type thing.

While my relative may be a lost cause for various reasons, I would suggest Team Biden TRY to explain why they’re not doing more at the border. But it all may be a lulz in the end because Trump could murder someone on TV and he would still be 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being president.

I’m Growing Alarmed At The Prospect Of Severe Political Violence In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I like to think of myself as a survivor. I managed to thrive as an expat in South Korea because I paranoid and ask a lot of questions. I like to think a few steps ahead in case the absolute worst happens.

Well, these days, I find myself going to the grocery store and wondering what I will do at some point in the near future when the shelves are bare because of a revolution or civil war. What the fuck am I going to do?

The fact that my Traditionalist relative — whom I love dearly — has clearly been radicalized into being full MAGA only adds to my alarm about the day after tomorrow. Trump as the leader of a fascist movement definitely seems to have considerable momentum behind him, even as Trump the man continues to be a big old doofus.

As I keep saying, one big concern I have is if Trump wins re-election that he will thrash around in such a tyrannical manner in the early days of his administration that even some conservatives may balk at what he is doing. That, in turn, could cause something akin to a Glorious Revolution on the part of Blues, which would, in turn cause a civil war because Red States would get upset that Trump had been deposed.

I know that’s hysterical doom shit at this point, but it’s a scenario I think about way too much.

The ironic thing about all of this is if, say, somehow MAGA Mike Johnson became POTUS, we would slip very peacefully into a full-blown autocracy. Maybe a few thousand smug Twitter liberals would flee the country, but, in general, the system would collapse into a white Christian ethnostate and it would happen without any violence at all.

It’s Trump, specifically, who could cause the collapse of the United States into revolution and or civil war. He’s just so dumb and lazy that he would try to transition the US into an autocracy in such a way that would enrage many, many people who would otherwise just shrug.

But I can’t predict the future. There’s always a risk of some Black Swan event that could throw everything up in the air in some unexpected manner. And there’s always a small chance that Biden will win big enough that should ding-dong Trump start to rant about the need for a National Divorce that no one will listen to him.

I guess we’ll see.

‘Doom Spiral’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely feels like as we enter the 2024 election cycle silly season that we’ve entered a doom spiral. There just doesn’t seem any way — barring some sort of major Black Swan event — for us to avoid Something Bad happening in late 2024, early 2025.

At this point, in spring 2024, it seems the only possible way we avoid some sort of catastrophic political disaster in late 2024, early 2025 is if Biden wins in something akin to a landslide and when Trump starts to scream about the need for a National Divorce to keep him out of jail — everyone ignores him.

That’s it. That’s all I got.

If anything else happens, we’re totally and completely fucked. The country is just too tightly wound for us to make it through the 2024 election without some sort of severe, unpreceded political violence.

I hope I’m wrong. I really, really do. And I can’t predict the future — anything can happen. But I AM alarmed at how batshit insane things already are in our political system and only getting worse.

So, who knows?

Fascists In The Family

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Holy shit. This weekend was the first time that I felt my far more conservative relative had crossed the Rubicon into pure cut fascism. Now, before I begin, my conservative relatives have been VERY GOOD to me and very gracious to save my sorry ass on a number of occasions.

So, this is not personal. This is just an alarming political observation.

I bring this up because I have a regular monthly political discussion with one of my intelligent, college educated conservative relatives. I have been trying to avoid these conversations of late, but this time we got into it.

The most alarming part of the conversation was that my relative — whom I love dearly — was officially all-in for MAGA and Trump. They continue to have reservations about Trump the man, but they are totally willing to give up their American democratic birthright to the autocratic aspirations of Trump the idea.

It’s all very alarming. When pressed, my conservative relative agreed with me that only something like Trump murdering someone would be a “red line” that would prevent them from supporting him in the 2024 general election.

Now, there is obviously a lot to unpack here.

The key thing that I notice is how similar to 1850s antebellum America the conversation was. Replace “trans rights” or “abortion” with “abolition” and all the arguments on both sides would be identical.

I pressed my conservative relative — whom I love dearly — about the idea of a National Divorce and they did not dismiss the idea out of hand. It seemed as though the idea of smug Twitter liberals talking down to them would determine if they were willing to tear the country asunder or not if, say, Trump lost the 2024 election.

All of this is very much a potential dystopian hellscape. The only glimmer of hope that I could find from the conversation is what my conservative relative — whom I love dearly — my do if all the as of now rhetorical things Trump could do in his second term became a reality.

There is a very small chance that if Trump did, in fact, go full Tyrant on America that that, unto itself, might cause my principled conservative relative to sit up and take notice. That, of course, sucks because we would have to go through the chaos and turmoil of having a full-blown tyrannical president.

I say this because my far more conservative relative simply can not believe that Trump would actually do all the tyrannical things that he very clearly says he wants to do in a second term. They totally dismiss Trump’s autocratic, tyrannical leanings because he wasn’t able to implement his autocratic rhetoric the first go round.

As such, if Trump literally does go full tyrant in 2025 there is a very small possibility that, on principle, my far more conservative relative might balk at such policies. Of course, that won’t help ME much because I could be dead after an ICE agent shoots me because I won’t shut up about how I think Red King Trump is a fucking cocksucker.

All I can say is late 2024, early 2025 could be fucking lit. We could see a series of surreal events not seen since the end of the Civil War.

We Are In Serious Trouble

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If my recent conversation with my far more conservative relative — whom I love dearly — is any indication, we are in serious, serious political trouble heading into the 2024 election cycle. The person is college educated, wealthy and intelligent, and yet, they are all in for Trump and MAGA’s fascism.

Now, I fear, I know what people in Germany felt in the early 30s as the Nazis were consolidating power. Christian Nationalism is now so mainstream within Traditional conservative ranks that there is No Red Line for Trump other than, say, them seeing him murder someone with their own two eyes.

Things are so bad, I fear, that if Trump is re-elected that the only Red Line that may exist is the personal. If Trump becomes president and comes directly after me and people like me, then, yeah, maybe my far more conservative relatives might sit up and take notice.

But, at the moment, they are so wrapped up with the “crisis at the border” that they are willing to give up their democratic American birthright with their eyes wide open. And, as I’ve long said, if every election your democracy has is existential then…you’re probably not a functioning democracy anymore.

I feel like a broken record saying shit like this all the time. But, I just don’t know what to tell you. We’re in a lot of trouble.