Tag: Second American Revolution

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is clear to me now that for my Traditionalists relatives their red line when it comes to the rise of tyranny is when things become personal. They are so absolutely fixated on being “canceled” just for being conservative that they are willing to embrace the policies of MAGA to the point that we become autocracy. They don’t see it in those terms, of course. They just think I’m being “hysterical” to even broach the idea that there will come a point when their very vocal anti-MAGA relative may run afoul of the autocrat and have his head knocked in
.

This is because, of course, they don’t like the implication that the policies that they support are, well, bad. And they are bad. They’re tyrannical and cruel. But for them, again, I’m being “hysterical.” There’s no way that my fears of ICE (or whomever) snatching me off the street could possibly happen should another Republican become president.

They laugh at my notion that by definition, any Republican who becomes POTUS from here on out will be an autocrat and do everything in his — or her — power to strangle Lady Liberty one way or another. They support MAGA’s “cruelty is the point” policies and, as such, they’re willing to burn our democracy to the ground — for them we’re not even a democracy. We’re a “constitutional republic,” you know.

The obvious implication of all of this is, not until whatever the autocrat does effects them, personally, will they sit up and take notice. Otherwise, everything is an abstract. To put it another way — they would be the people who absolutely support Roe V. Wade being overturned….until their 15 year-old-granddaughter gets pregnant and suddenly her life is ruined because her parents can’t afford to spirit her out of the country to get a safe, legal abortion in Canada.

THEN they sit up and take notice.

The same with me. I’m a loudmouth crank. I say whatever the fuck I want. I never do the right thing. I don’t even know what the right thing is, sometimes. (All of this is within reason, of course.) What I mean is — whatever the consequences are of me calling President Pompeo a fat fuck while drunk at a bar in 2027 are, I’m willing to suffer.

My relatives love me, but it won’t be until they are face-to-face with tyranny on a personal level when I get snatched off the street by ICE that they will begin to re-think their support of “cruelty is the point” policies that the autocrat has instituted.

So, for me, all this talk of illiberal democracy or autocratic America is not an abstract. This is my life we’re talking about. I’m willing to ride this particular free speech pony to the bottom. I keep telling my Traditionalist relatives that I will never shut up and for them to know that when they inevitable pull me aside and try to tell me, “For the sake of the family, I suggest you shut up.”

Fuck that. Not going to do it. If they had made common cause with me against MAGA at the start of this clusterfuck, they wouldn’t be put in that type of position. Because of their failure to do that, we’re all just going to have to suffer at the hands of autocrat.

If you want to call that my own implementation of “cruelty is the point,” the so be it. But I’m never fucking shutting up. Free speech is my American birthright and if I want to call President Pompeo a fat fuck, I’m going to do it. Damn the consequences to me or my family.

Of course, my Traditionalist family members can’t process that as even being a possibility. They think that’s just my usual crazy talk. The only reason why I’m so adamant about this particular situation is that this is not an abstract to me. You can be scared of brown people all you want to, be willing to give up all of the implied freedoms associated with living in a democracy to prevent them from taking political power from you, but in the end I’m still going to be dead in a ditch because you didn’t make common cause with me when you had the opportunity.

And any assurances I might get that they will help me out if the worst happens ring hollow. They’re just saying whatever necessary to shut me up by that point. Why do things have to get that bad? Why can’t we all unite against MAGA to defend our democracy that is found within our constitutional republic? But no. Cancel culture and woke culture that hurts their fee-fees is too important to them.

They never take me seriously, anyway, even when I’m proven right! Probably because they just dismiss me as a well meaning crank, just like everyone else does.

Anyway. I know what I believe and I know what I’m willing to suffer for in the real life. Which is better than a lot of people out there.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I believe the United States, the most powerful country in the world is careening towards destroying itself. And if that doesn’t happen, then we will become illiberal democracy on a par with modern day Hungry if we’re lucky and Russia if we’re not. In other words, the United States between now and January 2025 is either going to implode (illiberal democracy) or explode (civil war.)

I believe this because by all macro metrics the United States’ Second Republic is running on fumes. The system can not and will not work. Trumplandia is above the law, just like the Nazis were above the law in 1920s Germany. I continue to read a huge tome on the rise of the Nazis in the Weimar Republic and the similarities are chilling.

I keep talking about 2024 – 2025, when in fact we may not have to wait that long. Several events could force the issue and bring the United States to its knees sooner than expected. If either Trump shuffled off this mortal coil peacefully, that might be enough for the conspiracy crackpots of the MAGA New Right to agitate for State Secessionist Conventions. I’m not joking. That’s really possible.

Meanwhile, if it was BIDEN who shuffled off this mortal coil peacefully, then you can sure as hell bet that Speaker Trump becomes a far more likely reality and THAT would definitely probably push us into civil war because Speaker Trump would then be one heartbeat away from being POTUS again I could totally see Trump being so stupid as to go transactional at last and demand MAGA bring the country to its knees to force the Senate to convict President Harris.

And, if you really wanted to get dark about it — if there was any type of major domestic terror attack between now and January 2025, we’re all fucked. There would be a civil war, or severe, rolling political violence of some sort. Everyone is primed and ready to go at it with guns and shit because they hate everybody for political reasons.

But, as I keep saying, it’s possible that we’ll just slip peacefully into illiberal democracy, to autocracy. If that happens, then initially, nothing will change. White Christian Traditionalists will continue to chuckle about how people like me are “hysterical” because their Red Line is strictly personal. They will be quite content that we’re not longer a democracy because they will finally get what they want –white minority rule.

It won’t be until their loud mouth crank family member — that would be me — gets drunk and won’t shut up about how President Pompeo is a fat fuck no matter how skinny he gets and ICE swoops in to take me away will they finally, finally, FINALLY want to do something about our transition from democracy to autocracy.

Of course, for me, at least, by that point it will be way too late.

The point is — we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked. Gird your loins for a bumpy, dark few years ahead of us.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I saw a headline somewhere — I think it was Politico– which implied that the current cold civil war America is going through is about “nothing.” I totally disagree.

The reason Americans hate each other, at it’s core, is about a dearth of white babies. (I hope that doesn’t come across as racist. I just find it midly amusing to say “white babies” in this context. Also, do think that at its core, the reason Americans hate each other is Traditionalists, on a systemic basis, are afraid of losing power to POC.) America is a nation of immigrants and, as such, wave after wave of new types of people have refreshed the idea of what it means to be American over the years. Remember, Italians were not considered “white” until some point around the end of WW2.

Anyway, back to the white babies thing.

The writing on the wall is clear — white people are going to be in the minority within a few decades and that is freaking white Christian Traditionalists the fuck out. Throw in the huge, gaping differences in social views between urban and rural areas and the United States is ripe for collapse.

But the thing that is putting huge pressure on our political system is white Christian Traditionalists feeling a huge amount of insecurity about their place in American society. Ezra Klein’s book, “Why We’re Polarized” was a real eye opener about the origins of the current clusterfuck we find ourselves in.

So, far from being about “nothing” our cold civil war is definitely about something — power. This struggle over who has power in American politics because of the systemic racism of white Christian Traditionalists is bending our politics to a breaking point.

And, really, the Second American Republic is imploding so fast politically at the moment that I sometimes wonder if we’re going to even make it to the 2024 – 2025 timeframe. I believe America is an idea, not the autocratic concept of blood and soil. Yet people I know who should know better take it as gospel that the United States is not a democracy, but a “Constitutional Republic,” and, as such, fuck you lib.

Should Peter Navarro’s non-violent coup work in 2024, that really will be the moment our cold civil war may turn hot. When half the electorate thinks the United States is a democracy and half thinks its a Constitutional Republic and Trump becomes president via some of the more obscure elements of the Constitution, that’s a recipe for a hot civil war.

Or not. It could be that we slip peacefully into autocracy and that will be that. People like me will, inevitably, cross the autocrat and simply vanish. THEN the white Christian Traditionalists in my family will sit up and take notice because things will be personal for them.

But, by then, it will be too late for me.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Absolutely no one listens to me, so all of this is more about me struggling to figure out for myself how likely it is that the United States will have a Second Civil War. As I keep saying, I vacillate wildly between assuming that of course we’re going to have a civil war to thinking we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy.

The issue is — all the conditions are there for a civil war, the question is, will we finally reach the breaking point where one starts? And, that, at the moment is a known unknown. I just don’t know. It really could go either way. In the end, ultimately, the difference between civil war and a peaceful transition to autocracy probably will depend on some very specific tactical events that simply can’t be predicted.

Right now, it’s just as easy to imagine people just shrugging when Bannon’s “administrative coup” works in conjunction with Republicans playing the more obscure elements of the Constitution like a xylophone. And, honestly, as long as there’s no violence on their side, this particular coup will work. Remember, for Traditionalists, the issue was the violence associated with January 6th. If Peter Navarro’s peaceful coup had worked, then Traditionalists would have waved away my angry rants about a coup because it was don’t within the context of the “system working.”

So, I dunno. I will note that the United States is far less politically stable than you might think. I’m so busy assuming that 2024 – 2025 will be lit, I may be totally oblivious to some unexpected event happening between now and 2024. I mean, if, God forbid, Biden were to shuffle off this mortal coil, it’s very easy to imagine severe political instability if Speaker Trump impeached President Harris while she lacked a veep.

Trump is so fucking lazy and stupid, he could very well start a civil war early simply by ranting about how the Senate needs to convict President Harris so he can become POTUS again early. He could finally go transactional and then we would really be fucked. That would be a recipe for civil war.

And, yet, still, I don’t know. I think there’s a 50 / 50 chance at the moment of a civil war no later than 2025. The other option is autocracy. Though military junta is a potential factor as well. But everything is up in the air. I just don’t know.

For the time being, we’re all just going to have to wait until we’re a little closer to 2024 to have a better sense of which scenario is more viable. But, regardless, you need to gird your loin. Study up on the rise of Hitler and the beginnings of the first American Civil War. Knowledge of those two historical events may come in handy in the near future.

But the thing you absolutely need to do is figure out what you believe in the real world. What you’re willing to risk your life and scared honor for in the real world. Things are going to become rather chaotic, no matter which direction the country goes.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is a little bit of buzz in Canada at the moment about the potental transformation of the United States into a “Right wing dictatorship” by 2030. I don’t think it’s going to be that simple, but here are some reasons for the Great White North to seriously worry about their brothers and sisters to the South.

1. Form Follows Function
   If the United States becomes an illiberal democracy like Russia, we could be talking about “Little Blue Men” seizing a bit of Canada here and there at some point in the 2030s or 2040s. As it becomes more and more clear (in secret) to President Pompeo or DeSantis that the States will become too hot to live in, they will turn north. So, in the end, Canada might be attacked for its abstract “resource” of simply being easier to live in when the planet begins to boil.
2. American Refugees
   If there’s a civil war in the United States, millions of Americans are going to become political refugees and they’re going to pour over the Canadian border looking for refuge. This could happen a lot sooner than you might think, depending on events. Anytime from now to as late as 2025 and America could go tits up, bomb itself into the Stone Age and people will plunge into Canada looking for succor. This would dramatically change Canada.
3. A Major Redrawing of North American Borders
   Just as the US was nervous about being drawn into a Canadian civil war the last time Quebec wanted to leave Canada, so, too, will Canada be drawn into any American Civil War. Probably, the country will be used as a staging ground for EU forces who might want to help out Blue States. But if the Second American Civil War has a far more messy endgame, you could see Blue States swoop in and politely tell Canada to form the United States of Canada in reponse to the creation of Trumplandia.