Tag: Second American Revolution

The Macro Trends Hurtling America Towards Civil War Or Autocracy In 2025


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are some of the macro trends that are eating away at our political system such that by the time 2024-2025 rolls around we are faced with a stark choice — civil war or autocracy.

Harding of Political Positions
The two sides are beginning to harden their positions in the wake of Trump. Or, put another way, Republicans have become fucking fascists who hate democracy to the point that no amount of political ratfucking is too craven for them. The recent Georgia Jim Crow 2.0 voting restrictions being a prime example of this. The two sides are now just talking passed each other in any political debate and, as such, our politics is beginning to lock up in fits and starts to the point that by the time 2024 rolls around it will collapse and a sizable portion of the population will see violence as their last recourse.

Miscalculations On Both Sides
Both sides are making some major miscalculations about the other. The Right things that if all else fails they can start murdering people to get what they want –without thinking through the practical implications of such a move. Meanwhile, the Left isn’t really taking the Right’s transition into a bloodthirsty mob seriously and think they can somehow magically get what they want via politics.

The Republicans Are Fascists
MAGA is now full-blown fascism and this subgroup of the Republican Party is dragging the rest of the party with it. So in 2024 there will be a number of different junctures where Republicans will test to see if they can simply nullify Biden’s reelection, no matter what the result. Their thinking will be that given we’ve already come to accept someone can win the popular vote but lose the electoral vote by a hefty margin that people will lulz Republicans “legally” nullifying Biden’s re-election by not certifying the vote in Congress. There could be dueling Electors at this point as well to muddy the waters even more.

Income Disparity
A wide gap between rich and more does not a stable nation make. So, it’s easy to imagine that being another systemic breakdown that will make the nation ripe for some sort of violent event in 2024-2025.

A Glorification Of Civil War By The Right
I know from my webstats that there’s a huge amount of interest in a second American civil war out there in the aether. Some of this, I think, comes from good old boys drinking a Miller Light and smoking a doobie on the back porch gaming out what happens when dem dar libtards try to take away their guns. And some of it is simply, on an abstract level, a glorification of violence in the name of political ends that is extremely poorly thought out and completely detached from reality. What I mean by this is — while I know it fits into the FOX News narrative that the center-Left is a bunch of unredeemable soyboy numales who are so limp wristed they could never fire a gun — in reality it’s human nature that when things grow existential humans do tend to adapt in whatever manner necessary to stay alive.

Notes On A Second American Civil War And Realpolitik For Bloodthirsty MAGA Types


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Anyone — especially a MAGA person — who wants a Second American Civil War is very, very dumb and misguided. MAGA is so fucking bloodthirsty because they’re fucking crybabies who think simply not getting want they want is a form of oppression. Add to this their belief that compromise is weakness and you have recipe for disaster in 2024-2025.

The thing that MAGA is completely oblivious about is the different dynamic between politics and war. With politics, you can screw over people by making it so difficult to vote that they don’t. Or you can control the media narrative such that a lying, racist, misogynistic piece of shit you support gets away scot free with any amount of criminal behavior.

But war is, by definition, existential. And you can be MAGA and have all the fucking guns you want to fuck and in the end you will lose because you just don’t have the things in aggregate to win. Blue States have bigger economies with better educated people — and women likely willing to fight! –than Red States. And, remember, that while the country is pretty much split 50/50 Blue States have more people in smaller spaces and a far more united polity than Red States.

What I mean by that is, the place where Red States would likely draw their most strength from — the old Confederacy — simply isn’t as united on an existential level. All the Jim Crow 2.0 that places like Georgia and Texas are up to now are power politics plays. But they won’t mean shit if things grow life or death.

If there’s a hot civil war and everyone has to take a stand and pick a side on a life-or-death basis this one, all the culture war talking points fate into oblivion and two things will grow very radical on both sides very quickly. All the systemic problems that we just don’t have the political will to fix — guns, racism, sexism, taxes, you name it — will be solved one way or another because the dead hand of history will force us to decide.

Or it could be a lot more messy than that with the United States splitting into countries that hate each other. Or the country could balkanize in a half-ass manner where bigger states like California, Texas and Florida are in various states of independence while the rest of the country is barely hanging on.

But I know there’s nothing I can do to stop MAGA from either running around murdering people like me in 2024 or finally getting their wish as the United States turning into a Russian-style “managed democracy.”

All I can do if there is a civil war is sit back and tell MAGA “I told you so” when suddenly all the globalist cuck soyboys they think they can simply murder turn out to have a lot more spunk than they predicted.

A Second American Civil War & The Congressional Certification Crisis Of 2024


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On paper, the United States is doomed in 2024. As of right now, there simply is no way that at that point we don’t either become a MAGA managed-democracy autocracy or descend into civil war.

Among the reasons why this is now-nearly a law of nature is it’s almost a certainty that both houses of Congress will flip in 2022 and remain Republican in 2024. As such, the actual vote outcome in 2024 won’t matter. The MAGA Republicans will refuse to certify Biden’s re-election no matter what. Or they’ll do whatever necessary at the state level so his re-election doesn’t even get that far. But the point is — 2024 will be the crossroads.

Will the average American lulz the idea that literally their vote doesn’t count if it isn’t for a Republican or will they take up arms at the injustice. I guess it’s possible Republicans might be the ones taking up arms if THEY don’t get their way, but given how Republicans are becoming bloodthirsty fascists I don’t see how it would come to that. In other words, they will control the process such in 2024 that if they take up arms it will be in the context to reacting to the center-Left doing so rather than taking up arms themselves. Their political goal is to take power before the center-Left knows what hit them.

We long ago established that no matter how many votes you win by, if you lose by one vote in a strategic state you lose the presidency. As such, the next logical step is for us to lulz Congress using its “legal” right to engage in certification nullification. It simply won’t do what it’s otherwise supposed to do because it doesn’t like the outcome.

But, again, that’s where the fork in the road happens.

A lot would depend on if Republicans lost control of the political narrative in some way and people got woke to what was going on. That inability to strike before the narrative was established was Trump’s biggest screw up. If he had gone full autocrat anytime during the summer of 2020 he would still be president right now.

Or even if he had struck in some major way between election night and when the election was called for Biden, he would still be president. He was simple too lazy, too much of a ding-dong to do the hard work of being an autocrat. He thought he could simply rant about it and get what he wanted. The next autocrat in waiting won’t be so dumb.

Anyway, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where Republicans make a major power grab at both the state level and, if that fails them, Congress. They simply refuse to accept the election of a Democrat. Period. Full stop. They might dress this up in a bunch of legal bullshit but the end result would be the same — we would have Republicans in power in Washington for decades to come.

And that’s where I just don’t know. I don’t know the reaction of average Americans. Maybe as long as the economy was going well and freedom of speech wasn’t really touched that much that there might be something of a stalemate at this point. Republicans have “hard” power of making policy and passing laws, while Democrats would have the “soft” power of the media. The only way anything would ever change is when Republicans did something so totally, absolutely indefensible that they were shamed into doing the right thing. Though, of course, Republicans have no shame so that would only work occasionally.

The other option is a civil war. And here’s the thing — under the conditions of war, Blue States are in a far better position to win than Red States. Red States have massive — and growing — political power for various reasons but the moment you shift your metrics from power politics to geopolitical realpolitik then everything changes.

Blue States have biggest populations and economies. They wouldn’t have to worry about a race war. Not only are their economies bigger, but they’re more smaller and more concentrated. But there are a lot of known unknowns. Would would be the leaders of Red and Blue? Who uses stolen WMD, where and why?

Remember, this clusterfuck would not happen in a vacuum. It’s very likely that WW3 would happen in conjunction. A number of limited nuclear exchanges would happen around the world as the United States fell into chaos. What’s more, it’s even possible that a state like the DPRK might lob a few nukes our way just for shits and giggles.

I have no idea if we will chose civil war or autocracy. That’s just too far out into the future for me to know. But I do know that MAGA is so fucking dumb to want a civil war. Very, very dumb. They can get everything they want by at least pretending to work within the confines of liberal democracy.

Second American Civil War: A State By State Breakdown


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

MAGA’s Bloodthirsty Nature & The Prospect Of A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Holy shit has MAGA become bloodthirsty. If my webstats are any indication there is a huge interest in some sort of “second American civil war.” Of course, the ironic part is all my dystopian predictions about such a war are done in the context of ranting about how much I fucking hate MAGA.

But I guess if you’re a cocksucker MAGA person you gotta find your second civil war porn where you can.

Anyway, the question is how did we get to this state of affairs? MAGA’s obsession with a civil war, I think, started with Reagan panting liberals as evil incarnate. It just happened to take 40 years for that particular attempt at de-humanization to fully come to fruition.

The surreal thing about MAGA’s obsession with a civil war is how poorly thought out it is. I know why they, in the abstract, want a civil war so bad — they conflate their rising political power with what they might achieve via bloodshed. And they’re such fucking crybabies that just because they can’t get what they want, they want to run around murdering people.

The only thing I can compare this to is “slave power” in the late 1850s. They really were screwing over the North and when Lincoln was elected and there was even a whiff of them not getting everything they wanted, they freaked out and attempted to leave the Union.

So, here we are, about three years away from MAGA freaking the fuck out no matter what happens in 2024. Either they win in 2024 and begin the process of turning us into Russia, or they lose and attempt to leave the Union. The time for punting such problems down the road is over. We’re totally, completely fucked and the sooner the center-Left realizes the gravity of this situation, the better.

But I don’t see what can be done at this point other than just hunker down. The macro forces at play in the United State’s political system right now are simply too powerful to be stopped by anything. There’s just no punting this crisis down the road anymore.

In 2024-2025 everyone will have a pick a side. Everyone will have a choice to make. We have something of a spectrum from civil war to autocracy ahead of us in 2024 and in no scenario will the average person avoid having to do a serious gut check.

Either your personal safety will be at risk because of your politics if you live in the wrong place, or when the autocracy comes you’re going to have to make a personal decision as to how much of a “Good American” you’re going to be.

I’ve already told my conservative relatives to just turn me in should we become an autocracy. I’m never fucking shutting up. I’d rather die on my feet a free man then live on my knees a slave.

A Lazy Review Of ‘The Fourth Turning’ In The Context Of The Impending 2024 Catastrophe


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Enjoy this bit of quiet we have in America right now. All signs point towards “the fourth turning” happening “no later than 2025.” That’s what I think and that’s what the 90s book, “The Fourth Turning” suggests as well.

I bought the book because Business Insider said it was Steve Bannon’s favorite (or some such) and I was curious to see what that greasy motherfucker would like it so much.

Having read the book, my chief take away is they padded a third of it by doing a “We Didn’t Start The Fire” listing of every major historical event of each “turning.” I suppose they think that was suppose to support their thesis, but I just found it boring and gratuitous. I knew everything they listed and did not need a refresher on them. Instead of going through every major historical event of the last 80s years they could have give me more analysis about their over arching conceit.

The other take away I got was the book reads way too much like the other “male astrology” of evolutionary psychology. It seemed a little too spot on at times and there was one event that they couldn’t fit into their “reveled truth” of “turnings” — the civil war.

But I will give them this — they definitely are on track to predicting the 2024 catastrophe that I have come to believe is now inevitable. So, to that extent, the book is kind of spooky. That a book written in the late 90s could get a disaster in 2024 so right is pretty good. And they said 2005 would be a big year. What they didn’t know what it wasn’t 2005 it was 2008 and the election of Obama that would set things off.

So, again, that’s pretty good.

One thing I want to make clear — history has already decided that we can no longer keep punting the political crisis the United States is in right now down the road forever. We just got VERY LUCKY in 2020 for a number of historical reasons that no one could have predicted.

We won’t be as lucky again.

Well, At Least A Second Civil War Would Be One Way To Fix Modern America’s Problems


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about history is, there’s no narrative while you’re living through it. We give history value and a narrative after the fact to make sense of the world. When history is actually happening around you, it fucking sucks.

There are a number of systemic problems in modern America that are eating away at our rotting liberal democracy. As such, we’re at something of a crossroads. Who’s vision of America will we follow? MAGA’s racist, misogynistic white Christian ethno state, or the liberal-progressive vision of equality, inclusion and traditional liberal democratic values?

Now, I will be the first to admit that “woke” “cancel culture” — even though it doesn’t really exist — is something that conservatives have a legitimate reason to worry about (in some respects.) What I mean is, we’re two different countries that are quickly receding from each other to the point that conservatives don’t know the “new rules” of society that are being established in major metropolitan areas.

At the crux of this clusterfuck, I believe, is young people have lost all perspective on what’s important. It’s been close to 50 years since they had to worry about the draft and the hell of war is nothing more than an abstract. I think the way to solve a lot of our systemic problems in National Service for all 18 year olds. That would be one way to get good old boys from Alabama to be forced to talk to Brooklyn soyboys and vis versa.

Tragically, that’s just not an option.

Even though I would much, much rather just continue to patch up our rotting liberal democracy for as long as possible to punt the prospect of war down the road, if you take MAGA’s bloodlust seriously, you have to admit to yourself that if the “good guys” won any such civil war then at least — on a macro level — a lot of our intractable problems might find some suddenly very easy solutions.

But that’s a big “if.”

It’s very easy to imagine MAGA cocksuckers winning or the country splitting into two and each side implementing their own visions for America in their respective new nations.

I do find it very troubling, however, how fucking bloodthirsty MAGA is right now. Jesus Christ, people.

Endgame 2024: From Second American Civil War To Autocracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let’s go through the different potential endgames for our coming 2024 catastrophe.

The Punt
In this scenario, Something Big happens again that punts the systemic crisis we currently face down the road yet another presidential cycle. Things that might do this include a major war — against, say, the DPRK or Iran — or some technological advancement that so jiggles society that the Far Left and the Far Right fuse into a new, anti-tech party and the “good guys” live to fight again.

Implosion
With this one, there’s some sort of civil war when the now-Republican controlled Congress does everything in its power to give the presidency to the Republican. The more brazen the theft, the worse the crisis and the more likely a major civil war of some sort will occur. This version of this scenario is more muddled than an actual civil war and involves more severe rolling political violence at the state level that leaves the country hobbled.

Implosion: Secession
It’s possible that no matter what, one side or the other will, as part of the passions of any post-election night shenanigans, attempt to secede from the Union. This is an extremely murky situation because I don’t know who the leaders would be and what their war aims would be. We might simply nuke ourselves into oblivion as part of the birthing process of two new nations.

Implosion And Redemption
This would involve a whole lot of luck that America has lacked the last few decades. In this version, we nuke each other into oblivion but come out the other side re-united and stronger. This would be because the what happened would be such a fucking tragedy — even though the “good guys” won — that the systemic problems destroying the country would be forgotten and we would go back to having a shared vision of what America is.

Autocracy
Another outcome is things happen so fast that we shrug off how brazen the Republican theft of the election is and that’s it — we’re an autocracy for decades to come. Gradually, the autocrat begins to consolidated power to the point that the media is purged and ICE becomes something of a latter day gestapo. There are grumblings about secession on the part of Blue States but nothing comes of it and every year sees a tightening of the the autocratic noose around American throats.

Dystopian Hellscape
In this endgame, we have a civil war and MAGA wins. Because of the civil war, MAGA will have grown significantly more radical and we’ll be living in Trumpandia at last.

Georgia As Setup For America’s 2024 Catastrophe


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s growing clear that our choice in 2024 will be quite stark. The move to restrict voting rights in Georgia indicates that the setup is being established for Republicans to finally, finally get their macro wish — to make it so difficult to vote that people finally give up and let them run roughshod over our undead liberal democracy.

This is where you never can tell.

On one hand, it’s possible that now that the passions of the Trump Era are easing that voters will get sucker punched in 2024 and they will either lulz it and let Republicans rape our republic or they will grow enraged and, well..dun dun dun there’s a civil war.

This setup will grow even more obvious the moment Republicans take control of Congress again. It’s going to suck so bad. The one-two punch of severe voter restrictions and a Congress controlled by fascists pretty much means the end of our liberal democracy is here…unless there’s a civil war and solve our systemic problems that way.

And, don’t forget, either way — autocracy or civil war — there’s a good chance that the entire world order will be re-arranged. No matter how much fucking MAGA cocksuckers may want us to think otherwise — America is the indispensable nation and we’re the glue that keeps the world together. Take us out of the equation and…oh boy. I would estimate within a year of us “bringing the boys home” nearly half a billion people could be vaporized. Indian and Pakistan are always one misstep away from blowing each other to hell. Take the US out of world affairs and that particular disaster is almost a foregone conclusion.

As I keep saying, the issue is — enjoy this quiet before the storm. These two years before Congress flips may be the most quiet we get for the rest of the decade.

The Agony And The Ecstasy Of The Clusterfuck Of 2024


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m not saying I can predict the future, but it’s pretty easy to see that as the book The Fourth Turning suggests, something pretty fucking huge is going to happen “before 2025.” The thing about catastrophe is if you’re lucky, in the end ,there is some sort of redemption. It doesn’t make it “worth it,” because it’s a fucking avoidable tragedy, but it does at least force people to pick a direction, any direction.

As such, the impending 2024 global catastrophe at least will slice the Gordian Knot of a number of systemic issues that have been brewing for some time now. If we come out the other side and the “good guys” win, then huge swaths of problems that we currently see as immutable and intractable will be solve in a rather abrupt manner. If the “bad guys” of MAGA win, those same problems will be solved as well, albeit in the exact opposite manner.

I don’t think enough people realize how dangerous 2024 is going to be for the entire world. It will be a pivotal moment in human history given it’s difficult not to imagine WMD being used not just internationally, but domestically as well. There’s a real chance that America is going to bomb itself into oblivion in some sort of nuclear-tipped civil war.

But the specifics of such an event are extremely murky right now because I just don’t know who would be leading the two sides and what their strengths and weaknesses might be. All I know right now is the United States’ political system is unprepared for the passions of another presidential cycle and the whole thing is going to unravel either into a violent civil war or a decent into autocracy. There will be no middle ground. We, as a nation, will be forced to pick a fate and everyone is going to have to pick a side. The choice will be stark and terrifying when it happens. There’s a reason why, “May you live in interesting times” is a curse.

A lot of things we worry so much about now will be looked back upon as comical. It’s difficult to be offended at every little slight when you’ve lived through a civil war where 20-30 million people have died. And, alternately, if we turn into an autocracy, you’ll be so worried about avoiding ICE agent thugs that the notion of “cancel culture” will seem rather quaint.

If you want to be hopeful, you can say at least there’s the chance for a “renewed American Covenant” if there’s a civil war. That is, of course, is if there’s a clean ending. If it’s murky, then the United States will split into two nations that absolutely hate each other. Though, I have to note that it’s possible that the entire map of North America might be redrawn in the event of a Second American Civil War.

It’s difficult to imagine that Canada (and NATO) wouldn’t get drawn into a Second American Civil War if it actually happened.

The point is — you have about four years to prepare for a Second American Civil War and / or World War 3. Millions may die. The old order will end and something new will arise from the ashes. It’ll either be a New Dawn or a dystopian hellscape.

No fate but what we make, as they say.