Tag: Second American Revolution

Sick, Sad World: We Can’t Even Agree On Facts Anymore

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Our political system has gotten so tightly wound that we can’t even agree on basic facts. Now, obviously, this is not new — we all saw what happened on January 6th, 2021 and yet, well, you know.

The latest incident is, of course, the cold blooded murder of Renee Good in Minnesota by a thug ICE agent. We all saw the same thing, and, yet, the MAGA interpretation of what happend — because of fucking Trump — is totally deranged relative to what I saw.

This is yet another example of something that if you told me we were going to have a civil war and or revolution soon in the USA, then, yeah, I would say that it was obvious it was going to happen in hindsight.

You just can’t have a functioning polity if the two sides are so divided that they can’t agree on what the fuck reality is. I still think that if there’s a civil war or revolution, it will be not from the Right, but from the Left. The Left will finally, finally get radicalized enough to the point that it finally does something about all the bullshit that the MAGA Right has been up to.

But the center-Left is such a bunch of wussies and there is so much slack in the system — at least in center-Left echo chamber — that….I think ultimately we become a fascist state and that it is that.

Vague Imagining of WW3 (And Second American Civil War or Revolution)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The skies are overcast where I live and that has gotten me thinking about WW3. Now, let me be clear that I’m not talking about a full exchange between the US and Russia, but rather a limited exchange between, say, India and Pakistan.

Now, even more context.

The only way I could see WW3 happening is if the US collapses into civil war and or revolution. I really don’t know if the US is going to have a civil war or revolution, it at the moment there’s a greater than zero chance that it happening.

In my imagination, what I think might happen is the US collapses into chaos, bombs itself into oblivion and then we come out the other side expecting the world to be the same.

That, of course, will not have happened.

But, of course, there is another way that WW3 could happen — it’s possible that the DPRK might grow unstable to the point that they start lobbing H-bombs at the USA. Now THAT would be dark. People don’t appreciate that the DPRK has the means, motive and opportunity to make life hell in the USA if something goes wrong there.

If the DPRK did blow up a major American city with a H-bomb, that would definitely set off WW3 one way or another because China would probably get involved.

Anyway, all of this is very vague, but the issue is I’m definitely thinking about WW3 at the moment.

Second American Civil War (or Revolution), 2026?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have pontificated so much on the possibility of a civil war or revolution to the point that it’s kind of silly for me to talk about it. But, let’s do it anyway.

I just don’t think there will be a civil war in the United States in 2026. Americans are not French and, as such, they are very, very docile. It takes a lot — A LOT — to rile them up.

The only possible way I could maybe, just maybe see a civil war (or revolution) in the USA this year is if Trump actively fucked with the 2026 midterms to the point that he invoked the Insurrection Act or even declared martial law. If he declared martial law and tried to actually cancel the 2026 midterms, then, yes, we will have a civil war in the second half of this year.

But, otherwise, I just don’t see it.

Now, while we’re on the subject, I do think that if Trump ran for an illegal third term in 2028, then, yeah, that would cause a civil war or revolution. Big time. But, at the same time, I think Trump’s personal historical reason to exist on a macro basis is to destroy the existing Constitutional order to the point that we may have to convene a Constitutional Convention to fix things once he finally, finally leaves the stage.

But all of that is very, very speculative.

I will note that I have long thought that if there’s a civil war, it will because Blues have had enough, not because of Reds — why would Reds want a civil war, they’re politically ascendant.

Anyway, I can’t predict the future.

I Just Don’t Think We’re Ever Having Free-And-Fair Elections Again In My Lifetime

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump is not governing like he ever expects Republicans to ever be out of office again. And, as such, I think this is it. The USA as we’ve known it for 250 years is over. The end, no more.

For the rest of my life, the USA will become poorer and more introverted while the wealthy grow richer and richer. I will also note that I think Trump’s historical purpose is to destroy the Constitutional system to the point that we are forced to hold a Constitutional Convention — at some point — to fix things.

Just imagine of Trump ran for an illegal third term and some (Red) states put him on the ballet, while some (Blue) states did not. If that’s not a recipe for a revolution and or civil war, I don’t know what is.

But, then, I think, Trump and MAGA would finally get what they wanted — the total destruction of what’s left of liberal democracy in America.

The ‘K Shaped’ Economy Is Real

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Man, am I broke as hell. But content. (For the most part.) Anyway, there really does seem to be two Americas at the moment. There are the Rich and there are the Poor.

The Rich are doing well and doing better. They fly all over the place. They have smug conversations on their podcasts about things poor fucks like me could never afford to do.

Then…there is everyone else.

Now, the great irony, of course, is Trump is a leech that is sucking the poor dry to the benefit of the Rich.

All of this makes me a little nervous. I’m a little nervous that the USA is a lot more unstable than we all might otherwise imagine. On a macro basis, all the conditions are there for the USA to collapse into revolution and chaos, especially if we can’t get our act together and default on our debt.

Then all the rich fucks are going to realize maybe they should have been a little less quick to accept all the fucking tax cuts that Trump demanded. But I think it’s just human nature.

For every season, turn, turn as they say

I’m Growing Unnerved About Trump Being Bonkers

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Oh boy. Trump is growing more and more bonkers. To the point that I wonder how far he has to go until someone actually puts him in a straightjacket.

This is an example of Trump being a very, very curious historical figure. If he wasn’t so nuts and just an avatar for some severe structural problems in the American political system, he would have converted us into a Russian-style managed democracy a long, long time ago.

And he’s definitely trying right now.

But…he continues to be too nuts. He’s just so unfocused that even though he’s getting a lot — much — closer to enacting his tyranny this go round…he’s still a big old doofus.

Which, of course, leads you to wonder what happens next, after Trump. I think he’s a transitional figure. Whomever is next after Trump — if they’re a Republican — will become Augustus Caesar and figure out a way to rule for their entire life. We will wake up 40 years from now and wonder why we’ve only had one president.

Or we have a civil war / revolution and the country collapses into chaos.

Good times! (Ugh)

Worst Case Scenario

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The worse case going forward, is something like this — the USA implodes into civil war / revolution just as the Singularity happens and soon enough the world is governed by some sort of weird amalgam of ASIs that are a fusion of MAGA, Putinism and China world views.

That would really suck.

All Republicans Do Is Cheat

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to tell you, folks. Things are dark in the United States and getting darker. All Republicans do is cheat and eventually, at some point, they’re going to do something so bad that Blues finally get upset and the country collapses into revolution and or civil war.

I just don’t see Blues wanting a National Divorce, so that’s why I think something like this may happen: what starts off as a revolution on the bar of major Blue states is only half-successful and the country collapses into civil war. Both sides use WMD on each other and, lulz, we the most powerful nation in the world bombs itself into the stone age of its own volition.

I could see such a civil war lasting between five to 10 years. There will be a WW3 while we’re busy blowing ourselves up and once we come out the other side, if we’re lucky and Blues win, THEN maybe we’ll finally have some sort of global government, probably in the context of living in a post-Singularity world with ASIs running around.

But that’s the best case scenario. Worst case scenario is ultimately ASI has to step in and rule a semi-post nuclear hellscape and we only unite as a species in that context. And who knows, maybe Elon Musk programs the One-ASI-to-Unite-Us to be MAGA.

That’s a very real possibility, the way things are going.

The Great Restructuring & Trump’s Ultimate Political Fate

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Nixon was he was safe until he wasn’t. The economy went to shit just as Watergate was accelerating and it was the economy more than anything else that cooked his political goose in the end.

But there are a lot of differences between Nixon and Trump, to say the least. Trump is an autocratic tyrant without any honor, without any shame and getting that man out of office is going to be like pulling a huge fucking tick off a hound dog.

So, AI could prompt the Great Restructuring, the economy could take a nose dive…and nothing will happen. Trump will still run for an illegal third term, or he could even go so far as to YOLO it and ignore any election altogether. I’m still not so sure he would *cancel* an election, but he might fuck with whatever elections we have in 2026 and 2028 to the point that they’re meaningless.

The point is — we’re stuck with Trump. He’s going to destroy everything, burn everything to the ground before he will willingly leave office. And the American center-Left is so meh that they probably will let him do it, too.

But there is, of course, a small chance that if Trump really does go as far as I fear, that the country will implode into civil war or revolution. So, there you go!

Trump Is Such A Curious Historical Figure

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It sometimes seems as though I just can’t figure out what Trump’s endgame is because the civil war / revolution hasn’t happened, it hasn’t been won by the good guys and the camps haven’t been liberated.

It seems like Trump is kind of like Hitler in maybe 1936. We all know he’s up to no good, but we just don’t quite know what yet.

One issue is how ill-focused Trump is. Hitler was lazy, but extremely focused. Trump seems more like a transitional figure. He seems like the guy who will hand over the keys to the our nascent empire to someone younger and more focused who lurch us into true tyranny.

History would suggest somehow Stephen Miller will become president and be the one to turn us into a paranoid white Christian (ironic) ethno state. And yet, no. I just don’t see that happening unless their are some serious political shenanigans.

So, in a sense, we’re king of…lucky? We’re lucky because Trump is so old, so not a “great man of history” that there’s a good chance that whenever he shuffles off this mortal coil that while he will have probably destroyed the constitutional order of the Republic, his actual final vision will be left to someone who doesn’t have the strangle hold on the MAGA faithful like he does.

But there is one thing we have to absolutely understand — no one is going to save us. As such, in the end, we could suffer through a decade’s long civil war or revolution and we may simply get so tired of bombing ourselves into oblivion that one side or the other will win.

And by that point, WW3 will have happened and the world will have moved on to the point that we won’t know what to do. Talk about future shock!