Tag: The Fourth Turning

America Is In Deep Trouble

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I talked to my conservative relative — who I love dearly — about the fact that Democrats, after being out of power for 12 years, were able to return in 1992 because they changed their policies. I said this in the context of suggesting to my conservative relative that rather than supporting fascist policies and hating democracy, that maybe Republicans could change their policy agenda.

“You mean you want us to turn into Democrats?” was their response.

It’s this type of thinking on the part of stalwart Republicans that I find very troubling in the context of the 2024 presidential campaign. At the moment, at least, it seems as though the 2024 election will be existential to our democracy. It’s going to be a total shitshow one way or another.

The only question in my mind at the moment is if we have a civil war or turn into an autocracy. I definitely think that because it’s most likely that the onus will be on Blues to leave the Union because Reds are politically ascendant that we NOT going to have a civil war, but rather simply slide peacefully into a MAGA Nazi themed autocracy.

About 1 million smug Twitter liberals will leave the country starting Election Day 2024 and that will be that. America will leave NATO and soon enough there will be a MAGA-run Constitutional Convention that will slap some sort of MAGA Enabling Acts onto the Constitution.

At the moment, here in 2023, that particular nightmare scenario seems a foregone conclusion.

2024 Is Shaping Up To Be A Massive Clusterfuck

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m growing more and more alarmed at what might happen in late 2024, early 2025. Here are the reasons why I fear 2024 could be the most historic presidential election since 1860.

Biden’s Age
Remember, there is a pretty wide amount of time where if anything, God forbid, happens to Biden, the entire election process will be thrown into chaos. From the moment the ballets are printed to Certification Day, if Biden abruptly shuffles off this mortal coil…we’re fucked. The system simply isn’t designed for the abrupt departure of the head of the ticket. Add to this that Harris hasn’t really impressed me as a Veep and…oh boy. Any student of history will tell you that often bad things happen in quick success during a crisis.

Trump’s Radical Agenda
Ding-Dong has made it very, very clear that any second term on his part will be based on revenge. In fact, his second term agenda is so radical that America will be at a crossroads. Either we have a civil war or we turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy. Given that the onus would be on Blues to decide if we have a civil war or not, I tend to believe we’re just going to turn into an autocracy. Blues just don’t have it in them, collectively, to leave the Union. What’s more likely to happen is a lot – A LOT — of smug Twitter liberals are going to flee the country en masse. Trump will transition us into an autocracy and whomever he picks as his veep will be our new Caesar Augustus.

Trump’s Criminal Problems
The thing about Trump is it possible that by the time the 2024 election rolls around, he will be under indictment for a number of Big Boy Crimes and yet he could still win the election. That’s the kind of shit that puts a lot of extra pressure on the system that is already at a breaking point.

Economic Unknowns
Two major issues could throw everything in the air. In the near term, we have to worry about a debt default that could crash the global economy in a rather abrupt manner. Meanwhile, at some point between now and early 2025, we have to worry about the possibility of some sort of Petite Singularity happening that would cause the economy to shed millions of jobs in a rather abrupt manner.

A National Divorce Would Be Just The Beginning

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about a so-called National Divorce, even if it was reasonably clean and reasonably bloodless is it would be just the beginning of a protracted era of chaos in North America. The reason is simple — both sides of the political equation in now-united America need each other for political, social and economic reasons.

The moment Red and Blue America officially cleave into two, independent nations, the age-old dynamics of rival nations would kick in. Add to this that all metrics point to Red America becoming inward looking, religious and a lot poorer, suggests that any “National Divorce” would inevitably prompt a re-match of some sort.

Red America, facing growing poverty in the context of finally being able to establish white minority autocratic Christian rule would have every reason to want to reunite the country at some point soon after the initial National Divorce.

But I’m working on the absolute best case scenario. Any National Divorce would be messy and chaotic and probably be happening in the context of WW3 breaking out. What happens if, say, the DPRK decides to lob a few H-Bombs on Blue America during the process of a very blood divorce? Then what are we going to do?

It seems to me that any divorce, for any reason, would cause a civil war / revolution of some sort to a scale and impact not seen since the French Revolution. The whole world would rumble as it began to sink in to various hostile powers across the globe that they now had free reign to do whatever the fuck they wanted while America was busying eating itself.

The point is — I really hope we don’t have a civil war, for whatever reason. I’m growing comfortable with the other possible choice America may make in late 2024, early 2025: autocracy. At least if we slide peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy, it’s less likely that millions will die. Though, in all honesty, I do fear that it would be inevitable that some MAGA Pol Pot might appear who starts to round up all the “woke” people he can find and we end up with American Killing Fields.

Anyway. I’m always wrong. Hopefully we will someway manage to avoid either autocracy or civil war….but something pretty spectacular would have to happen.

‘Digital Darwinism’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m growing alarmed at the prospect that just as the discovery of evolution lead to Social Darwinism and, as such Nazism, it seems possible the darkener element of MAGA might fuse with the rise of AI.

My fear is that because humans are lazy and have a natural inclination to “triangulate” with AIs, there will come a point when MAGA Nazi will use AI as validation for God only know what. We already have a situation where fucking fascist cocksuckers get really worked up with there are guardrails on AI. They want AI to be as racist, misogynistic and bigoted as they are.

And they can get really upset if they don’t get what they want. They call any form of guardrail on AI as “woke.” America is already careening towards a fascist one party state that establishes white Christian minority rule. It seems possible that if that is the new reality of America that our new autocratic overlords might throw AI into the mix and defer to AI in their efforts to justify genocide.

If you have “unwoke” AI established as the only “objective” outcome of that the state will allow, then, oh boy, are we fucked. I only raise this as a possibility because it definitely seems as though we’re rushing towards a perfect storm of a Petite Singularity and the Fourth Turning starting in late 2024, early 2025.

Anyway. I’m really worried about the unintended consequences of the intersection of AI and society. Things could get dark.

Well, They Have A Point

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a big fan of the New York Times Pitchbot Twitter account, so when I saw the following, I felt a bit sheepish.

He made a point of referencing his tweet above, then pointing out this real hot take, below.

I feel rather sheepish because, lulz, I’ve made a similar point on the blog of late. I usually mention this when I get annoyed not so much at the Trans movement, but the meta element of it all — they are so touchy about people conforming to their media narrative orthodoxy that they really do drive a lot of well meaning Traditionalists into the arms of fucking MAGA fascists.

I find the complaint of the otherwise stellar New York Times Pitchbot a bit murky. The issue of overzealous liberal-progressives is a real problem (at least with the Traditionalists in my life) so I don’t quite know how to address his complaint.

Anyway. What do I know.

‘None Dare Call It Treason,’ MTG Edition

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve given up trying to grok what the hell is going on within far Right circles where they are so partisan that they actively embrason treason if it fits their narrative. I suppose it all has something to do with how Trump is, at least in “vibe” terms a traitor so they feel they have to defend him via proxy whenever they can.

All of this is even more bonkers in the context of the legacy of Ronald Reagan. The fact that MAGA fascists would be “hard” on “wokeness” and amazingly soft of on treason and espionage is simply flabbergasting. Not only is it all very difficult to process, but if our partisan divide has gotten that bad, then it’s just a short jaunt to a National Divorce.

Now, remember, some — maybe most — of MTG’s bullshit is performative. She’s so craven that she’ll say whatever necessary to “own the libs” and stoke the base. I do think that she has the means, motive and opportunity to be America’s true autocrat by way of being ding-dong Trump’s second term Veep. She’s an idiot, but she’s definitely not so dumb that she couldn’t become what is marketed as America’s “Iron Lady” when the time comes.

There are about a dozen would-be autocrat waiting in the wings to do the final consolidation of power once Trump is out of the way. I still wonder if the tradition to autocracy will be peaceful or not. It really could go either way. The point is –we’re entering a very unstable moment in America’s political history. MAGA Republicans, on a systemic basis are chomping at the bit to establish permanent white Christian rule and the only question is if Blues bend a knee when they strike or if they bounce out of the Union in protest.

But, let me be clear — I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen.

Will There Be A ‘MAGA Revolution’ Starting In 2024?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is spinning out of control so fast that I sometimes think all that we don’t know if it will be MAGA or Blues that decide to leave the Union starting in late 2024, early 2025. I spend a lot of time assuming that if such a thing happens, it will be Blues who do it.

And, yet MAGA sure does enjoy mentally masturbating about Red states leaving the Union. So, yet again, let’s contemplate what a “MAGA Revolution” might look like in the context of the 2024 presidential election cycle. The issue for me is, MAGA really is fading in popularity to some extent. Or, to put it another way, that core 38% of the Republican base has such a stranglehold on Republicans that when the time comes that, unto itself, might be enough to cause Red states to leave the Union.

The key thing that would prompt Reds, rather than Blues, to leave the Union would be if ding-dong Trump won or not. If Trump won the 2024 election — which definitely seems he will one way or another — then the possibility that Blues will begin to leave the Union increases significantly.

But if Trump somehow loses, then I could see a situation where he rants and rants and rants about how yet another election was “stolen” from him and he, as such, causes Red states like Texas, etc, to begin the process of leaving the Union via secessionist conventions.

Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Dalton, Ga., on Jan. 4, 2021.

If it has to happen, then of course I want the onus of secession to be on Reds. Then Blues get to keep the USA brand and we have every moral obligation to keep the Union together, just like we did during the first American Civil War. But something I have to keep reminding myself whenever I run these Second American Civil War scenarios is I just can’t predict the future to any specific degree.

There’s every reason to believe that if there was a National Divorce that it would be successful for various reasons. And, what’s worse, the DPRK could aggravate things by lobbing a few H-Bombs our way as we’re in the middle of tearing ourselves apart. And, what’s worse, if the US is having a civil war, WW3 would, by definition, begin to happen around the world.

But we have to appreciate that on a systemic basis, the Republican Party is chomping at the bit to either turn the United States into an autocracy or force the issue of a National Divorce. And that existential choice will come to a head one way or another as part of the 2024 election. At the moment, I just don’t see how Trump doesn’t win in 2024, which would cause Blues to think about leaving the Union.

And, yet, I just can’t predict the future — I sure did a bad job of it in 2020 — so I suppose something could happen that causes Trump to lose the 2024 election and, as such, prompts discussion within MAGA Reds about leaving the Union. It really could, at the moment, go either way.

Jesus Christ, Do I Hate Orthodoxy Of Any Kind

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about the forces tearing America apart at the moment is how convoluted and easily conflated all of it can be. Unlikely what was going on in the late 1850s, the centrifugal forces tearing America apart today are far more muddled.

Now, let me be clear — as long as everyone is of age and it’s consensual, I don’t care what you do with your body. What bothers me about the Trans movement is not that people are Trans, but, rather the secondary issues associated with the Leftist media narrative on the subject.

Either you embrace the most extreme possible take on the Trans movement, or you risk having your life destroyed by the “woke cancel culture mob.” I try to be as open minded and empathetic as possible on this issue, but even I find the conspicuous embrace of Trans “influencers” by beer companies….odd? Why poke the bear of all those Traditionalist beer drinkers if you don’t have to? What purpose does it serve to add another rhetorical bow in the quiver of bonkers MAGA people who want Trantionalists to embrace their fascism?

As an aside, some of the Trans “influencers” have an eerie nature to them that seems like the gender equivalent of the Uncanny Valley. Something about their appearance just seems a bit…off. This is just a few of them. I’ve seen some Trans women who are so natural looking that I wouldn’t know they weren’t born women unless you specifically told me.

Anyway. Whatever. Again, the issue isn’t Trans people, it’s the meta elements of the orthodoxy associated with the movement. I just want to live in a functioning liberal democracy and if you push conservative Traditionalists into the arms of MAGA fascists, my God have mercy on all our souls.

Republicans Embracing ‘Fetal Personhood’ May Be The Thing That Finally Sinks America’s Ship Of State

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If my fears come true and “fetal personhood” becomes mainstream Republican orthodoxy by the time the 2024 election rolls around, holy shit does it seem like my “hysterical doom shit” is pretty prescient. Abortion and gun control are two issues very clearly mark if someone — or their state — is Red or Blue. And if Republicans embrace the idea that a zygote should be afforded all the Constitutional protections of an adult person…YIKES.

This is a prime example of why I fucking hate radicalism. If you’re so radical in your dreams of banning abortion that you pretty much make it inevitable that women will go to prison for having a miscarriage then you’re a piece of shit. But here we are — it could be that 2024 will be a battle royale between Two Tribes where no matter who wins the election, we face a secession crisis.

Either Reds begin to leave the Union because Blues won or Blues leave the Union because Reds won. There will be no middle ground and we will all be faced with the biggest historical event since the French Revolution. For all the people trying to “save” babies by having an absolute ban on abortion, I’d like to know what they’re going to do when a Second American Civil War combined with WW3 causes the death of about 1 billion people because of various horrible things happening in quick succession.

And, yet, it could very well be that Blues don’t have it in them to leave the Union. It could be that all those smug Twitter liberals with podcasts will decamp to the south of France and that will be that. There will be a national contraception ban, all gun control will be overturned and the existing ICE camp system will be weaponized to the point that yours truly finds himself cooling his heels in one of them for getting drunk and saying the autocrat can suck his dick.

The issue is — I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen, but I am growing more and more alarmed that the existential choice of autocracy or civil war that I’ve been ranting about for some time really is going to happen.

I don’t that to happen over and above the obvious reasons because I have a novel I’m working on and I’d like to actually have a fair shot of becoming a successful, published author before I drop dead.

Who knows? Anything can happen in the next 18 months or so.

Massive Resistance Is Not Cool, Regardless of Who Is Doing It or Why

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Back in the bad old days, there came a point during the Civil Rights movement when a number of Southern states ganged up and simply refused to abide by Brown Vs. Board of Education. In some parts of Virginia, in fact, counties shut down their public schools entirely rather than integrate them.

Now, much to my chagrin, a growing chorus of Blues are calling for something similar when it comes to the recent ruling by a MAGA judge banning one of the two major abortion pills.

I’m not cool with such talk.

Massive Resistance was not cool when racist Southerners did it and it’s not cool when otherwise well-meaning Blues do it now. America is already tearing itself apart to an unprecedented degree, no need to aggravate the situation by ignoring a decision by a Federal judge you don’t agree with.

That way lies madness.

Or, if nothing else, a National Divorce which would, by definition, spark a Second American Civil War.

But all this talk of ignoring the Federal judiciary definitely highlights the dangers of the 2024 election. We’re careening towards the existential choice of autocracy or civil war and it definitely seems as though the only issue is if its Reds or Blues who ultimately decide to leave the Union (depending on who wins the election.)

And, yet, it could be that ultimately Blues just shrug and we become an autocracy, with about 1 million smug liberals fleeing the country in due course.