Tag: The Fourth Turning

The Bolts Continue To Pop Off Of The Union At An Alarming Rate

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to tell you, folks. The news that a MAGA Federal judge has banned the use of one of the two abortion pills is extremely alarming on a macro historical basis. I say this because at its heart, abortion is an economic issue and it’s could be the head of the spear of a National Divorce in late 2024, early 2025.

It’s the economic nature of abortion that makes it different than all the other corrosive centrifugal forces tearing America apart which are pretty much just “vibes.” Abortion deals with the economic and bodily agency of 51% of the population and how it’s dealt with is a very clear delineation between a Red and Blue State.

But it’s unlikely that abortion, unto itself, would spark a National Divorce and, as such a Second American Civil War. And, yet, MAGA being so absolute on the issue of banning abortion on the national level, ultimately with no exceptions, is yet another stressor on the politics of America.

At the moment, the issues of abortion, gun control and to a lesser extent the Trans movement are causing a very clear delineation between Red and Blue. This is happening to the point where superficially, you could even lull yourself into a false sense of security when it came to the idea that you could pull of a National Divorce peacefully.

This idea collapses, however, when you realize that for every California, you have three or four states with a far more muddled political situation. The moment you have a secession crisis, the issue of how Texas is shifting Blue long term suddenly becomes VERY VERY important. Meanwhile, states like Virginia which are two states, one Red, one Blue fused together that hate each other also become a real problem.

It would be a state like Virginia that would have the most to lose in a National Divorce (civil war) because it would collapse into rival camps trying to decide on the field of battle what could not be decided politically: is it a Blue or Red State? Probably what would happen is after a really nasty intra-state civil war, Virginia would be split into two, with the rural parts of the state in Red America and the metropolitan areas in Blue America.

And, wait, it gets worse!

So, now we have two dueling judicial rulings on abortion. It goes to SCOTUS and ta-da MAGA wins.

I still am not prepared to believe we’re going to have a Second American Civil War because of the passions of the 2024 election — it’s just too likely that we’re going to shamble into autocracy. And, yet, with ding-dong Trump floating around, lurking in the historical shadows….anything is possible.

‘1859:’ The Ballad of The #TennesseeThree

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We’re all so busy assuming that Reds are going to somehow start a civil war that we continue not to really think about the possibility that it will be Blues who ultimately prompt one. I certainly don’t want Blues to be the ones history blames for a 2024 – 2025 secession crisis, but it’s definitely a prospect we need to take seriously.

I have written about this scenario a great deal for no other reason than I’m a native contrarian and also it just doesn’t make any sense for Reds to demand a National Divorce if they’re politically ascendant. They just have no reason to destroy the country with a National Divorce because they’re on the cusp of transitioning us into an autocracy without firing a shot.

And, ultimately, on paper at least, it just doesn’t seem in collective character of Blues to leave the Union — all the smug liberals who would otherwise lead such a center-Left National Divorce will just flee the country en masse and that will be that. Lulz?

So, I suppose all my “hysterical doom shit” pontificated on over the last few years on this blog will ultimately look rather foolish. Even a radical revenge-driven Trump second term won’t be enough to cause California, then New York then various other Blue states to leave the Union. I really, really don’t want such a thing to happen, but things continue to grow so alarming that I just can’t help myself.

A prime example of my fears about Blue leaving the Union rather than Reds is what’s going on with the expulsion of two Blues from the Tennessee legislature. People in my center-Left echo chamber are freaking the fuck out. To the point that I’m growing alarmed that we may look back upon this as something of a tipping point.

Or, put another way, Blues are ripe to do the very thing we’re so busy thinking Reds will want to do — prompt a civil war by causing a secession crisis.

Maybe not. This could just a moment in time that passes. And yet it could also be that Blues are getting woke to how politically ascendant the forces of autocracy are in American political life on now the state level and ultimately the national level.

If nothing else, the center-Left freak out about the Tennessee Three is definitely an unsettling ping from a potentially dark and violent figure. The very things I keep writing about and worrying about could very well come true as part of the 2024 election cycle.

Stay tuned.

America Continues To Careen Towards Catastrophe In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t predict the future. So, there is every reason to believe that I’m wrong and somehow we’ll punt the severe, existential problems that the nation faces down the road one more election cycle. And, yet, as I have been ranting about for some time now, it definitely SEEMS as though at some point in late 2024, early 2025 we will face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.

Either we just shrug and slide peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy that will cause 1 million smug, wealthy liberals to flee the country or the most powerful nation in the world collapses into some sort of civil war. If it’s civil war, it could go either way, with either Reds leaving the Union because Trump loses or Blues leaving because he wins.

I believe this because on a systemic basis, the Republican Party has radicalized to the point that it could be that the passions of the 2024 election will simply be too much for the country and we collapse into a French Revolution-style event that would cause unprecedented instability across the globe.

All the signs are there, but as I have said before, it could be that we peacefully transition from our current anocracy into a full blown autocracy. Many, many smug wealthy liberals who could otherwise fight the autocrat will simply flee the country for the four corners of the globe.

But I still just don’t know what is going to happen. And, it could turn out that somehow, miraculously, we manage to not only avoid electing a fascist Republican in 2024 but fascist Republicans choke and don’t decide to leave the Union in a pique of secessionist fury.

I suppose it’s possible.

The Looming Crisis: Everything Is So Conflated in Modern American Political Debate

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue when it comes to modern American political debate is it’s almost like we’ve given up. All the conditions are there for autocracy or civil war and it literally could break either way at this point. I say this because the two sides of Red and Blue are receding from each other at an astonishing rate.

Either we turn into a MAGA themed autocracy or we have a secession crisis in late 2024, early 2025 because one side or the other gives up and decides they can no longer being in the same nation with a political worldview that they hate.

Take, for instance, the Great Gay Scare that we are currently living through. Everything so fucking conflated. First, let me be clear — I generally support Trans rights and generally don’t care what someone does with their body as long as everyone involved is of age and it’s consensual.

And, yet, as I keep saying the Trans is doing itself no favors by being so overwrought and touchy. There are some very well-meaning, God-fearing people who believe just being gay is a “sin” and they are aghast at there are people who have to pause for 10 minutes before they can answer, “What is a woman?” These very sincere people can’t be blamed if they have begun to think that Trans people are some sort of “protected class” and the “woke” narrative about Trans people can never been questioned. Throw in the wedge issue of Trans kids and….Jesus Christ.

The issue is — if we were a functioning democracy, there would be some give and take between Red and Blue to the point that gradually there would be some consensus as to what to do with the Trans movement and then we would move on to the next pressing issue.

But because of the “Gay Scare” on the Right and the total fucking freak out about when it comes the established Trans orthodoxy on the “woke” Left the whole thing is totally fucked up. The controversy over the Trans issue is yet another corrosive element in our politics which is drive the two sides away from each other and making the United States increasingly unstable on a political basis.

I’m always wrong, and, yet just doing a back-of-the-envelope projection out to late 2024, early 2025 and definitely seem as though we’re either going to collapse into civil war or we’re going to become a MAGA-themed autocracy.

Humanity May Shrug Itself Into Servitude To Machine Intelligence

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Humans are, on a macro basis, pretty fucking lazy. So, as such, it’s very possible that there won’t be any sort of “Judgement Day” when it comes to the ultimate take over of humanity by AGI. Rather, it will be a gradual process whereby humans defer to AGI on more and more decisions until we just refuse to make any decisions anymore.

I could see a situation where after a brief power struggle, we hand over all of our critical infrastructure and WMD to AGI and all we do is sit around playing video games and falling in love with our AGI personal assistants. Humans will collectively revert to an infantile state to the point that history just sort of grinds to a halt.

That is kind of dark, yes, but things are happening so fast with LLMs and AI that one begins to realize that Hollywood’s vision for a AGI takeover is far more dramatic than it might actually be. I still am not convinced that, by definition, an AGI would want to destroy humanity when it could just as well just want to manage it.

Why destroy us, when you could be our god?

We just don’t know at the moment. But I do think things are going to get pretty bumpy far sooner than you might think. It’s at least possible that we risk a perfect storm in late 2024, early 2025 of not only the Fourth Turning happening on a political basis, but something akin to a Petite Singularity, too. Throw in a default by the United States this year — as early as July! – and….oh boy.

The rest of this decade could be as eventual as the decades associated with the French Revolution.

All Things Being Equal, Jon Stewart Should Be The Next President Of The United States

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again — the best stealth political candidate in modern American politics is Jon Stewart. When he gets mad, he is articulate enough to actually get things done.

So, if the United States was a functioning democracy — and if ding-dong Trump had never been POTUS — we would all be waiting with baited breath for Stewart to run for president. He would likely be a historically good president for a variety of reasons.

But.

Given the bad taste that ding-dong Trump has put in a lot of people’s mouths when it comes to celebrities running for office…meh. And I would prefer if Stewart would run for governor or senator from New Jersey before POTUS. There is a possibility when the “Fourth Turning” strikes the US in late 2024, early 2025 that it could be someone like Stewart suddenly has the Finger of God point at him, telling him to step into the political arena to make a difference.

But, to date, Stewart has shown no interest in running for anything, so, lulz.

The Fusion Of AI & AR Will Spark A $1 Trillion Service Industry

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While we may have to suffer through a fucking “Fourth Turning” first, I do believe once that’s all sorted out that Augmented Reality paired with Artificial Intelligence with create exponential growth.

Of course, this exponential growth will happen in the context of a Petite Singularity where there may be a dwindling number of jobs for humans to actually work. It could be that we’ll have a “Her” future in the context of having a Her-like AI walk us through our AR-lives as we all sit around trying to write the Great American Novel because we’re all living off UBI.

Again, the issue for me is there is a real possibility that the Western world may be about to “go through some things” starting in late 2024, early 2025. It could be that “those things” are the United States not having a civil war, but rather becoming an inward-looking America First autocracy. That, in turn will spark WW3 that will leave about 1 billion people dead.

And, if you wanted to get all Black Mirror about it, it could be that we’ll all wake up one day, put on our AR/AI vizors and walk around the world being berated by an AI demanding we not have “woke” thoughts.

Yikes.

So, I don’t know the specifics of how this will all sort itself out, but I do know that we’re in for some pretty significant technology-driven cultural and political changes very, very soon.

Jesus, I Hope I’m Wrong

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though the United States is careening towards autocracy or civil war starting at some point around late 2024, early 2025. My thinking is –we just aren’t going to make it through the passions of the 2024 presidential election cycle.

When your best case scenario if your country slides peacefully into autocracy, you’re definitely in a “Not great, Bob,” situation. But that’s where we are at the moment. I just don’t see the United States being able to punt the structural problems of our democracy down the road anymore.

Late 2024, early 2025 is it — Something Big is going to happen.

It could be as dramatic as civil war, or it could be something far more subtle where someone like a President DeSantis becomes America’s Putin and we are an autocracy in all but name. What I mean by this is, it’s possible that we could become a zombie democracy, with the only indication of anything having changed be how many smug Twitter liberals now live outside the country to do their smug podcasts.

We’ll all wake up in 20 years and wonder why Canada is being invaded to “save it from the woke cancel culture mob.”

Ugh.

But there is, of course, the far darker scenario — there is a National Divorce with either the Reds leaving the Union or the Blues leaving the Union. I don’t want either one of those things to happen, but it’s something we have to start taking seriously.

It could happen. It really could.

But who knows. It’s still too far out for us — or at least me — to get some sense of what might actually happen. One scenario is Reds leave the Union instead of Blues because Trump doesn’t get the GQP nomination and when he splits the conservative vote he freaks out and demands Red states leave the Union because he’s an idiot, not realizing they want to take him up on it.

Anyway. God good luck, folks. You may very well need it.

Welcome To The Resistance, David Sacks

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, well, wel, welcome to the woke cancel culture mob David Sacks. So, here I am listening to a VERY GOOD emergency “All-In” podcast that is about the SVB debacle and it definitely seems as though Sacks has gone woke when it comes to the government stepping in to help his sorry ass.

If you are opposed to canceling student loan debt because of the “moral hazard,” you can’t turn around and beg for a bailout just because things you care about are involved. Sacks did a big rant about why the government should step in and bail out SVB investment in an effort to obscure the fact that “moral hazard” is the entire basis of the free-market system.

But that’s obviously not what’s going to happen. Sacks is not only a fascist, but a hypocrite. He wants help from the government because things he cares about are involved. But if some 20 something has $100,000 in student loan debt that is not only crushing their dreams but their ability to be economically productive, he wants to tell them they’re shit out of luck because of the “moral hazard.”

This is all a prime example of how ridiculously divided America is and how we’re destroying ourselves because of “vibes.” There are no easy answers to any of this.

There is a real chance that this crisis will lead to a contagion to the point that if you combine this with the US potentially defaulting on its debts because Republicans are cocksuckers it seems very possible that we’re careening towards late 2024, early 2025 being the perfect storm I’m afraid it might be.

How Tall Is Ron DeSantis?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have no idea, for sure, how tall Ron DeSantis is. I have a few leads, but, oddly enough the last time I checked a few days ago, Wikipedia does NOT say how tall he is.

This leads me to believe that there may be an active campaign on the part of his would-be presidential campaign staff to obscure how tall he is. Here’s what I know:

And yet, if this is the case, how come Wikipedia doesn’t have his height? This leads me to believe that maybe however tall DeSantis is, he’s short enough that he doesn’t want anyone to know.

Or, if you want to get all paranoid about it, you could even go so far as to say that this is a ping from a future where DeSantis is POTUS and, well, lulz, America has become a Russia clone.

Speaking of Russia — Putin is pretty short, too, and that hasn’t stopped him from being Russia’s president for close to 30 years. And, what’s even more amusing — it’s not so much DeSantis’ height that I would be worried about so much as his weasley voice.

His voice is really, really fucking annoying. And, yet, even with him being short and having an annoying voice, non-Trump MAGA cocksuckers are so in love with the “idea” of DeSantis that he could very well be the next POTUS.