Tag: The Thousand Year Trump

Phone Polling Adventures


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As we lurch towards Trump finalizing his fascist consolidation of power in the United States, I find myself becoming a sucker for political phone polls. Something about this small — but important — aspect of recently bygone era when what the population of the country actually thought is appealing.

One thing I’ve noticed is most of the polls I’m getting are obviously from Republicans. All of the polls I’ve taken recently were pretty fucking warped. They don’t seem like polls at all, but rather being used as a focus group for Republican oppo research.

But none of it matters.

The Durham Investigation is going to indict Biden in late October. If that doesn’t work, the slowing of the mail will. And if THAT doesn’t work, the Russians will live up to their part of the bargain associated with Trump removing 1/3 of our troops from Germany and hack directly into our election systems.

As I keep saying, we really, really need to accept that the United States is now a fascist state. The whole snatching people off the street will soon enough be pushing people out of windows.

There is no hope.

Fascist America: Everyone Needs To Do A Gut Check



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The fascists have won. I say that because Trump is assembling about a dozen different ways he’s going to steal the 2020 Election. If it’s not the Durham Investigation indicting Joe Biden the weekend before the election, it’ll be the post office essentially becoming an arm of the Trump Campaign. And those are just the most obvious ones. There will not be a free and fair election.

And, even if somehow Trump manages to self-own to such an extent that Biden actually does manage to be win the electoral vote, Trump is going to challenge the certification of the popular vote at ever stage. In the end, his criminality and his insanity will fuse and, well, lulz, he’s not going anywhere.

So, with that in mind, if you’re not MAGA, you need to do a gut check as to what you believe. It is very, very easy to write a witty tweet that goes viral. But it’s going to be a lot different when ICE starts snatching people off the street or pushing people out windows in the real world.

What do you believe on an existential level? Are you really willing to face indefinite incarceration in an ICE camp or the risk of simply being pushed out a window for your opposition to Trump’s fascist tyranny? Nearly everyone can talk a good talk on social media, but when you’re shoved into an unmarked van by a member of PACT or ICE, you might simply turn into a quivering mess.

There’s going to come a moment very, very soon — probably in 2021 — when we’re going to find out who is willing to pledge their “lives and scared honor” for the America that existed for about 240 years before Trump. While a few bonkers people like me, with nothing to lose, will take a stand and tell Trump’s goons to fuck off — and be murdered accordingly — most people are going to take the advice of MAGA people who will tell them, “If you know what’s good for you, you’ll shut up.”

I don’t have any easy answers for you. I can’t tell you in practical terms what to do or how to prevent the inevitable from happening. I hate violence and I hate guns. Usually, it takes a war of some sort to end a fascist regime. There’s no one to invade us. I mean, who’s going to do it? The EU?

All I can tell you is the final official transformation of the United States into a fascist state is going to happen in fits and starts and then EXTREMELY RAPIDLY. Get out of the country if you can. Start thinking about where you might hide.

But the issue is — ranting on social media about Trump simply isn’t going to cut it anymore. You’re going to have to think about your career, your life and your family in the real world. Fascism is the ultimate “cancel culture,” if you will.

Darkness has fallen. There’s no going back. If it’s not Trump who does it, it’ll be Mike Pomepo or Tom Cotton. The macro trends simply aren’t on our side. And while there may be rolling political violence this fall and winter, I just don’t see there being any type of organized civil war. Though, I would note the only way we’re ever, EVER getting rid of Trump is the country will have to be on the verge of a revolution. That’s the only way I can think of that the political fault lines might shift just long enough to physically frog walk Trump out of the Oval Office.

Even then, this would be only a brief reprieve. Trump would immediately become a political martyr in the eyes of MAGA and he’ll find some fascist ghost writer to write his own “Mien Kampf.”

We’ve reached the end of the United States as we’ve known it.

Of The Coming Constitutional Convention



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Again, form follows function. Trump calls his good buddy Putin about once every two weeks these days, so it’s safe to say that if the bullshit Durham Investigation doesn’t help Trump steal the 2020 Election, the Russians will.

We therefore have to accept that it’s an absolute fact of life that Trump is going to “win” re-election by stealing it in a rather dramatic fashion. There will be a lot of angry tweets by the so-called “Resistance” but not a lot is going to happen where it actually matters — real life.

For months, twitter “thought leaders” will fight over what, exactly, allowed Trump to win. While all that’s happening, of course, Trump is going to start ranting about how big the budget deficit is and how we ABSOLUTELY have to call a Constitutional Convention to solve that problem.

We will then go through what is now the routine. At first, Trump will tweet about it and everyone will be shocked. Republicans will universally say Trump’s just joking and we’ve all fallen for his “master troll.” There will be a lot of talk about how people like me are being hysterical, as usual and that “Orange Man Bad” is all I have to contribute to the conversation. Then, of course, Trump will make it absolutely clear that he’s very, very serious about this proposal.

This will lead to a lot of ever-so-serious discussion about the need to balance the budget and how the only way to enact this long-needed addition to the Constitution is via a Constitutional Convention. The Fox News propaganda machine will be all in. While Twitter Liberals gnash their teeth about what a bad idea a Constitutional Convention would be, Fox New’s will articulate a very simple case for why it’s needed.

The momentum will begin to build in the mainstream press. Soon, there will be talk of the possible liberal benefits of such a Convention. Who knows, maybe the ERA will be passed! There will be a pitched battle for much of 2021 as to if this is a good idea or not. Maggie Haberman will coo about what a brilliant political mind Trump is.

Ultimately, of course, we’ll get the 5(?) state legislatures we need to have it called up. As I understand it, precedent would suggest that delegates to this Convention will be surprise! picked by state legislatures which are overwhelmingly MAGA Republicans.

The moment the convention assembles, it goes rouge. Some of that might be from Trump ranting at it everyday on Twitter and some of it may be just Republicans, by definition, hate liberal democracy. When the process is completed a slew of American Enabling Acts are drawn up. Birthright citizenship will be eliminated. Trump will be able to run for as many terms as he likes. Hell, maybe they’ll figure out a way that Trump can simply rule by decree because, lulz, nothing matters.

After a lot of debate, 3/4’s of the State legislatures pass these American Enabling Acts and House Trump’s power is codified into law.

That’s it. That’s our future.

John Bolton’s Triangulation



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems as though John Bolton did not testify against Trump when fate gave him the opportunity because, well, he hates liberals more than he thinks Trump should be removed from office.

So, in his estimation, any buck he earns from his “tell all” book on his time as part of the Trump Administration is a buck well earned (especially if it comes from liberals.) Now that, lulz, Trump is free to destroy everything, if there is a post-Trump Era, then, in Bolton’s estimation, everything will to some extent snap back into place and he can go back to “normal.” Bolton wants to triagulate liberals and conservatives in such a way that both of them hate-love him equally. This allows him to cruise back his regular roll on FOX News when the opportunity comes.

But that’s a huge amount of wishful thinking.

Trump has already likely hatched a quid pro quo with the Russians so they will hack direction into our election systems in the fall (Trump is removing about 1/3 of our forces from Germany) and, as such, lulz. Mysteriously, the polls will again be way, way, WAY off it will be some point in Barron Trump’s administration that we discover the Russians have been gleefully hacking into our election systems for decades with the direct help of House Trump.

But by that point, it will be the greatest, “Lulz, nothing matters” of all time.

Anyway, I’m going to be shocked if Bolton’s book comes out at all (or at least anytime before Trump crowns himself God Emperor of Trumplandia.

Of Brad Parscale


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ahhh, Brad Parscle.

The thing about ole Brad is he dresses like a dandy, but has the facial hair of a Hell’s Angel. It’s that quality of him that’s so off-putting. You can’t wrap your mind around what your seeing.

He’s a huge fucking grifter, too.

But that’s not to say he’s not great at his job — he is. He’s pretty much the brains behind the malignant tumor that is the Trump campaign. Anyway, he’s make a huge amount of money off of Trump.

Parscle is obviously smart enough, driven enough and good enough at his job that Trump is probably going to win. Though, I can’t help but continue to think about how Trump is removing one third of the US troops in Germany by September. Definitely sounds as though he’s doing that in exchange for Putin hacking directly into our election systems.

And, yet, I will be the first to admit that I can’t predict the future. Who knows what’s going to happen tonight, tomorrow or a month from now.

Some Trump Scenarios For The Next Year



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

No one can predict the future. So take that into consideration. But here are some scenarios as to what might happen between now and about a year from now.

Massacre
This is one of the more acute endgames for the clusterfuck that is the Trump Ministration. In this scenario, Trump finally gets his own Tienanmen Square on the National Mall. The bloodshed is enough that he’s quickly forced from office well before Election Day. I don’t really see this happening for a number of reasons. Or, put another way, there might be a massacre, but Trump still won’t leave office.

Rolling Political & Racial Violence
In this scenario, the rolling political violence I have long predicted for the fall simply happens as part of the rolling protests we’re having right now. The two merge as the year progresses and there’s massive violence on Election Day. America has its own “Troubles” until sometime in April-May 2021 when we finally figure out how to pull the now completely insane Trump physically out of the Oval Office

Trump Self-Owns By Going Crazy
There’s a real chance that Trump’s criminality and his lurching insanity will fuse to such an extent that he’ll take the whole country down with him. By the time his enables finally get with the program, it will be far, far too late to save the country and something akin to either an autocratic managed-democracy or a civil war happens. It all happens because no one is willing to stick their neck out in the real world to stop it.

Startup Saves The Day
In this scenario, someone figures out a way to organize the protests happening right now via an app. It would be designed to find leaders and to coordinate these protests in a meaningful manner. This is really me daydreaming because no one ever listens to me.

The Elector Crisis
Trump loses the popular vote, but goes after Electors on a personal level until they vote for him. Or there’s a 1876-type commission because Trump claims a huge amount of voter fraud and SCOTUS believes him. This all ends up with a massive clusterfuck and we either endup with an acting president or knowing way, way more about the personalities and personal lives of individual Electors than we should.

Bides 100 Days
Bides first 100 days — should they happen — may simply be him struggle to keep the country together as Trump rants on Twitter about how MAGA has to kill people to protect their 2nd Amendment rights.

Trump’s Most Dangerous Game



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While Trump is an absolute moron, he is getting advice from someone who isn’t: Putin. So, it has occurred to me there’s a reason why Trump is shipping in Texas prison riot police to DC — he really wants to murder peaceful protesters in cold blood.

It not too much of a stretch to imagine the following: the goons from Texas serve as the Hell’s Angels at Altamont and there’s violence. Enough violence that the entire nation is shocked. This leads to direct combat(!) between the goons from Texas and the US Military.

The America Putin Wants.

The final battle is joined as everyone picks sides.

How exactly that would go down is anyone’s guess. I do think this would be the rolling political violence of the fall I have long predicted, just a few months early and in a different context. Now, there are a number of scenarios you could imagine at this point.

One is Trump really misjudges the whole situation and he is effectively forced from office in a rushed impeachment process at gunpoint on the part of the U.S. Military. But, given how things are likely to actually happen, it’s possible it could get even messier. It would happen very, very fast.

It would be total chaos (which is what Trump’s bestie Putin wants.)

And, really, I would say Trump would win, as always, but for how moronic and incompetent he is. He’s such a self-own artist that when faced with an unprecedented extra-political, extra-Constitutional attempt to remove him from office, he simply won’t know what to do.

A Very American Coup



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Not once in our nation’s history have we ever had a coup in the traditional sense. So, it’s rather surreal to me that I find myself thinking how a coup might happen now.

If any military coup happened, it would be so chaotic in nature that it’s impossible to predict exactly how it might happen. But my best guess is Trump finally gets the massacre of peaceful protesters in DC that he’s so excited about and the military does something completely out of the ordinary for it on a historic and institutional level — it turns on its commander-in-chief.

Given the nature of American political tradition, the only way I could possibly imagine this happening would be the top military leaders contact Nancy Pelosi and tell her in no uncertain terms that the House has to do a snap impeachment of Trump….NOW.

Then, using the same hint-hint methods, the military gets the Senate to do a snap trial and conviction of Trump. This would be the only way for everyone not to feel dirty about what had just happened. Of course, this could all be a setup. Trump could be trying to consolidate power in the military by pushing it to the breaking point, then hoping there would be some sort of coup attempt so he could purge those people. (This happened in Turkey a few years ago.)

All of this is meaningless, of course, because Tom Cotton is likely to be elected president in 2024, no matter what because of the same macro issues that elected Trump in the first place.

Lulz!

TNT: Trump / Trump 2020?



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My current estimation is at some point in the next few weeks, we will reach a Trump freakout tipping point and Trump will rather abruptly dump Pence as his 2020 running mate.

Now, the Republican MAGA backbench is so wide and deep that he has about 30 people he could pick from who would get the job done. But, for the moment, it seems two people are more perfect than the others — Ivanka Trump and Gen. Mike Flynn.

Flynn is perfect because, well, he’s a fucking traitor and probably Trump’s Russian “handler” so what better way to “own the libs” than to put a turncoat one heartbeat away from the presidency. So, Flynn seems perfect. And, yet, Ivanka would also fix a lot of problems for House Trump.

She’s a “threefer” in that she’s Jewish, a woman and a Trump….and moderate! So, she’d be perfect for the white college educated women in the exerbs that everyone seeks so desperately in a presidential campaign. What I could see happening is something like this:

Trump’s political fortunes get dramatically worse. His insanity and his criminality fuse into one and he begins to lash out in some pretty insane ways (he’s already doing that, natch). As part of this insane lashing out, he does a major shake up of his campaign, including booting Pence. (Brad Parscale is a different matter. He’s too good at his job for Trump to do anything about him. He’s so powerful — and necessary to Trump’s victory — I could see Trump naming HIM his veep.)

Then Trump names Ivanka his veep. Everyone goes insane for a few days. Then things begin to calm down and we realize that, like most Trump political moves, it’s both genius and very stupid. But, really, the whole point is to simply setup Ivanka (and Jared) to become president at some point in Trump’s ill-gotten second term. Jared will probably really run the country, while Ivanka is a figure head. Or maybe there might be some combination of Ivanka-Jared-Flynn should Trump finally totally and completely lose his fucking mind in his second term.

Trump is going to win, no matter what. I see no indication that he will ever EVER, ever have any political accountability because of some pretty significant macro problems in the American political system.

Lulz.

‘538’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Nothing matters but the actual 538 human beings that make up presidential Electors. So, if the dozen other ways Trump has to steal the 2020 Election don’t work, he’s simply going to threaten the fuck out of Electors to vote for him.

And if THAT doesn’t work — MAGA is going to murder people they don’t like (like me!) in cold blood.

So, spare me all the giddy excitement about this or that poll indicating Trump is going to lose. Autocrats never fucking lose. We’re going to wake up Jan 20th, 2021 and Trump is going to be sworn in for a second term. There is absolutely no scenario I can think of where that doesn’t happen.

It’s like a law of nature at this point.

Then we get a Constitutional Convention and things get really, really dark, really really fast. And, yet, the end of the United States will have a very clear date to it, I guess. At least the American history teachers of the future will have an easier time of it making test questions.