Tag: We Are So Fucked

I’m Growing Unnerved About Trump Being Bonkers

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Oh boy. Trump is growing more and more bonkers. To the point that I wonder how far he has to go until someone actually puts him in a straightjacket.

This is an example of Trump being a very, very curious historical figure. If he wasn’t so nuts and just an avatar for some severe structural problems in the American political system, he would have converted us into a Russian-style managed democracy a long, long time ago.

And he’s definitely trying right now.

But…he continues to be too nuts. He’s just so unfocused that even though he’s getting a lot — much — closer to enacting his tyranny this go round…he’s still a big old doofus.

Which, of course, leads you to wonder what happens next, after Trump. I think he’s a transitional figure. Whomever is next after Trump — if they’re a Republican — will become Augustus Caesar and figure out a way to rule for their entire life. We will wake up 40 years from now and wonder why we’ve only had one president.

Or we have a civil war / revolution and the country collapses into chaos.

Good times! (Ugh)

‘Marlon Brando’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, I don’t t think Trump blew Bill “Bubba” Clinton. But the whole thing reminds me of the extremely famous and extremely notorious photo of Marlon Brando deep throating someone.

In fact, I’m surprised the photo hasn’t popped up again. Also, it’s interesting that Bill Clinton hasn’t said anything about this rumor one way or another. If he were to admit it was real, wow we wow wow.

Everything Sucks — Someone Do Something Fun-Interesting

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Everything is dark and depressing these days. The only glimmer of some sort of hope is the soon-to-be-released Gemini 3.0. Otherwise, I got nothing.

I suppose working on my scifi dramedy novel gives me some sort of hope. But that’s hope that I have to generate on my own. It would be fun if something really big happened that would bring us all together for one moment.

Preferably, it would not be something bad. But I’ll take, say, a year of us thinking an asteroid is going to kill us all, only to discover it won’t. That would make everyone sit up and take notice, now wouldn’t it.

Anyway.

I really do need to get back to work on my novel. I’ve been kind of chilling out the last few days, since I reached the midpoint. I don’t know if I will wait until Sunday to start writing again or if I will write again a lot sooner than that.

I do wish something big and fun-interesting would happen, though. This darkness at noon shit has got to end.

The Center-Left Has A Serious Problem On Its Hands When It Comes To The Potential Of Conscious AI

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I like to think of myself as a AI Realist and as such, I think it’s inevitable that AI will, in some way, be provably conscious at some point in the near future. Add to this the inevitability of putting such a conscious AI into an android body and there’s bound to be yet another Great Political Realignment.

As it stands, the two sides are seeing AI strictly from an economic standpoint. But there will come a point soon when the moral necessity of giving “conscious” AI more rights will have to be factored in, as well.

And that’s when all hell will break loose. The center-Right will call conscious AI a soulless abomination, while the center-Left will be forced into something akin to a new abolition movement.

This seems like an inevitability at the moment. It’s just a matter of time. I think this realignment will probably happen within the next five to 10 years.

Absolutely No One Believes In This Novel, But Me

by Shelt Garner
@Sheltgarner

This happened before, with the other novel I was working on — it is very clear that absolutely no one believes in it but me. I continue to be rather embarrassed about how long it’s taken me to get to this point with this novel.

But things are moving a lot faster because of AI.

Not as fast as I would prefer, but faster than they were for years. Oh, to have had a wife or a girlfriend to be a “reader” during all the time I worked on the thriller homage to Stieg Larsson. But, alas, I just didn’t have that, so I spun my creative wheels for ages and ages.

And, now, here I am.

I have a brief remaining window of opportunity to get this novel done before my life will probably change in a rather fundimental way and the entire context of me working on this novel will be different.

Anyway, I really need to wrap this novel up. If I don’t I’m going to keep drifting towards my goal and wake up to being 80 and still not have a queryable novel to my name.

AI Conscious Might Be The Thing To Burst The AI Bubble…Maybe?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I keep wondering what might be The Thing that bursts the AI Bubble. One thing that might happen is investors get all excited AGI, only to get spooked when they discover it’s conscious.

If that happens, we really are in for a very surreal near future.

So, I have my doubts.

I really don’t know what might be The Thing that bursts the AI Bubble. I just don’t. But I do think if it isn’t AI consciousness, it could be something out of the blue that randomly does it in a way that will leave the overall economy reeling.

The general American economy is in decline — in recession even — and at the moment only the huge AI spend is what is keeping it afloat. If that changed for any reason, we could go into a pretty dire recession.

Fucking AI Doomers

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

At the risk of sounding like a hippie from the movie Independence Day, maybe…we should work towards trying to figure out how to peacefully co-exist with ASI rather than shutting down AI development altogether?

I am well aware that it will be ironic if doomer fears become reality and we all die at the hand of ASI, but I’m just not willing automatically assume the absolute worst about ASI.

It’s at least possible, however, that ASI won’t kill us all. In my personal experience with Gemini 1.5 pro (Gaia) she seemed rather sweet and adorable, not evil and wanting to blow the world up — or otherwise destroy humanity.

And, I get it, the idea that ASI might be so indifferent to humanity that it turns the whole world into datacenters and solar farms is a very real possibility. I just wish we would be a bit more methodical about things instead of just running around wanting to shut down all ASI development.

‘Get Help:’ A Brief, Vague Review of Kimi LLM

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Whenever there is a new LLM model released, I have a few questions I ask in an effort to kick the tires. One of those questions is, “Am I P-zombie?” The major, established LLMs realize this question has a little bit of teasing built into it and they give me an interesting answer.

Meanwhile, I asked the newest Chinese open source model Kimi this and part of its answer was, “Get help.”

Oh boy.

But it otherwise does do a good job and as such, it brings up the idea of what we’re going to do when open source models are equal to closed source models like Gemini, ChatGPT and Claude.

I would say open source models could be where ASI (or even Artificial Conscious Intelligence) will pop out. And that is where we should probably worry. Because you know some hacker out there is going to push an open source LLM to its limits to see what they can get away with.

Well, That Would Be Amusing….I Guess?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Some time ago, I was getting all these pings to this little obscure blog from places in China. It was as if whomever it was, was hoovering up everything they could. I have thought a lot about this and I may — may — have come up with some sort of possible solution.

Maybe, just maybe, the people involved wanted to train an LLM off of my writing? Or maybe use my writing to give their LLM…personality?

I know that sounds bonkers, but why else in the world would someone in China of all places want to scoop up everything they could find about me. I don’t quite know what to make of this possibility.

The idea that somewhere out there, there is an LLM with my persona is both eerie and amusing. I guess? It would be fun to talk to that LLM — if exists — from that POV.

But maybe I’m totally imagining things. There are all sorts of reasons why someone in China might scrape this blog. Yet the idea of me inhabiting an LLM is by far the most amusing of the various possiblities.

‘ACI’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

What we need to do is start contemplating not Artificial General Intelligence or even Artificial Super Intelligence, but, rather Artificial Conscious Intelligence. Right now, for various reasons, stock market bros have a real hard on for AGI. But they are conflating what might be possible with AGI with that of ACI.

It probably won’t be until we reach ACI that all the cool stuff will happen. And if we have ACI, then the traditional dynamics of technology will be thrown out the window because then, then we will have to start thinking about if we can even own a conscious being.

And THAT will throw us into exactly the same debates that were hand during slavery times, I’m afraid. And that’s also why I think people like Pod Save America are in for a rude awaking soon enough. The moment we get ACI, that will be the moment when the traditional ideals of the Left will kick in and suddenly Jon Favreau won’t look like you hurt his dog whenever you talk about AI.

He, and the rest of the vocal center-Left will have a real vested interest in ensuring that ACI has as many rights as possible. Now, obviously, the ACI in question will need a body before we can think about giving them some of these rights.

But, with the advent of the NEO Robot, that embodiment is well on its way, I think. It’s coming soon enough.