Tag: We Are So Fucked

The Perfect Is The Enemy Of The Good: ‘AI Speak’ Edition

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am just about to wrap up the first act of this scifi dramedy novel I’m working on and, as such, I’ve looked over some of the beginning scenes. And I’m pleased but for one thing — they definitely are a bit…too…polished.

They suffer from “AI speak” a little bit too much for my liking. I just hate the idea of people rolling their eyes and saying the only reason why my writing is any good is I used AI. (This, despite me still thinking that the way I use AI is simpler to how I might have used spell check a few decades earlier.)

Regardless, everyone and everything is horrible so to prevent me from having to endure the slings and arrows of people accusing me of producing AI slop, I’m probably going to go in and simply rewrite scenes as necessary completely in my own hand.

That way, even if the end product is “worse” at least it will be my writing and not AI.

If The USA Takes Over Greenland, We’ll Use The ‘Little Green Men’ Method The Russians Used With Ukraine’s Crimea

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given the situation on the ground, rather than come in all bombastic with Greenland, I think American “little green men” would slowly creep into Greenland and slowly take it over.

That way, there would not be any big confrontation, but at the end of the day, the USA would effectively own Greenland. (We already do, but lulz, Trump’s bonkers and wants a big win like taking Greenland by force.)

Anyway, as I keep saying, no one listens to me and I could get this right and no one would notice or care.

Oh My God, Trump Kidnapped The President Of Venezuela

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am not shocked by Trump very often these days, but Trump kidnapping President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela actually managed to stun me. I am well aware of what a thug Maduro is, but just kidnapping him out of the blue is a real dick move on Trump’s part.

President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela

And, yet, here we are, with people hand waving what Trump has done and praising him for getting rid of a Latin American tyrant. Ok, I get it, but, man, it still makes me queasy.

I guess, if nothing else, I would prefer if there had been some sort of public debate about us abducting the leader of another country — an act of war. Something about how this has been handled is not cool.

And, yet, I guess we’re all going to be so happy that we got rid of a thug that we will just sweep the bad precedent this establishes under the table. What’s next, Trump kidnapping the prime minster of Canada?

The Difference Between The Dotcom Bubble & The AI Bubble

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key difference between the dotcom bubble and the AI bubble is the dotcom bubble was based on just an idea. It was very, very speculative in nature. The ironic thing about it, was, of course, that it was just 20 years too soon in its thinking.

Meanwhile, the AI bubble is actually based on something concrete. You can actually test things out and see if they will work or not. And that’s why if there really is an AI development “plateau” in 2026 then…oh boy.

The bubble will probably burst.

I still think that if there is a plateau that that, in itself, will allow for some interesting things to happen. Namely, I think we’ll see LLMs native to smart phones. That would allow for what I call the “Nudge Economy” to develop whereby LLMs in our phones (and elsewhere) would “nudge” us into economic activity.

That sounds rather fanciful, I know, but, lulz, no one listens to me anyway. And, yet, I do think that barring something really unexpected, we will probably realize that LLMs are a limited AI architecture and we’re going to have to think up something that will take us to AGI, then ASI.

My 2026 Predictions

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are my predictions for 2026.

Trump Will Fuck With The 2026 Midterms
I don’t know how he’s going to do it, but Trump is going to figure out a way to ensure that the 2026 midterms are not free and fair. To the point that there could be some domestic turmoil about it, potentially to January 6th levels, but it will be from Blues, not Reds this time. If Trump does this, it could be some serious shit that goes down as we enter 2027.

The AI Wall, Or Plateau, Will Be Obvious
I think at some point in 2026, unless something unexpected happens, we’re going to realize that current LLM architecture isn’t going to get us to AGI, much less ASI. This, in turn, could lead to something of a crisis of confidence in the whole AI ecosphere.

It May Become Clear That OpenAI is Netscape, Part Deux
I was alive during the rise and fall of Netscape Communications 30 years ago and I think it’s at least possible that — especially in the context of the limitations of LLM systems becoming obvious — that OpenAI may, in some way, implode. To the point that it is consumed by its business partner Microsoft. A guy from The Verge podcast came up with this one, but I agree with him.

The Economy Will Be In Flux
At some point in the time leading up to the 2026 midterms, three things may have happened: Trump will have appointed a toady to lead the Fed, OpenAI will have imploded and the AI bubble will have burst. If some combination of those things happen, then the pressure on Trump NOT to fuck with the 2026 midterms will grow a lot more intense.

Trump’s Economy May Sour, Restricting His Autocratic Abilities
Right now, because of Trump’s gilded economy, he’s easily able to play tinpot autocrat. We have a “K-shaped” economy and all the wealthy people with power and clout just are too busy counting their money to give a shit about what fucked up shit Trump is up to. But if the economy, in some, sours — probably starting around August or so — then those very same people will suddenly begin to pay closer attention to what dickhead, piece of shit Trump is up to.

The 250 Year Macro Imperial Curse Will Really Kick In
The rule of thumb is empires last about 250 years before all hell breaks loose. And I think 2026 will really prove this theory when it comes to the American Empire. And we’re doing it to ourselves with our eyes wide open because of racism, sexism and greed. So, lulz? I think 2026 will be the year when it really becomes clear that we’re in a mult-polar world now and China will pick up a huge amount of slack that the USA has produced on a geopolitical basis because Trump is a fucking idiot.

My Own Life Will Be In Great Flux
I think, on a personal basis, my own life is going to be thrown up in the air a few times in some pretty unexpected — and expected — ways. I think I’m probably going to finish my scifi dramedy novel, but I also think it will be September before I can really get around to querying. I think that while on paper I have stuck the landing and hit the zeitgeist in just the right way with the novel, I’m simply too old, live in the wrong place and am too much of a loudmouth crank for me to successfully query the novel anytime soon. But at least I’ll have had the fun of seeing how far I could get.

We May Create Our Own Aliens
It is at least possible that we may finally wake up to the reality that even narrow-AI LLM systems are, in some sense, conscious. And, as such, we might just see the first evidence of what I have long predicted — the Right will start to hate on AI, while the Left will start to get “woke” to it being a conscious being and want to protect it in some way. That will be pretty deep. But I think it may be closer to 2027 or 2029 before such things really start to kick in.

AI Job Loss Will Speed Up, In Context
I think that job losses directly related to AI will speed up, but only if the economy really sours. Otherwise, the job losses will increase, but at a slower rate because LLM systems just are not there yet when it comes to doing what our evil corporate overlords want: to do basic things like run the local Quick-e-Mart.

There Will Be At Least One Strange AI Event
Because of improved AI systems, there will be at least one major event like what happened with Kevin Roose of the New York Times with the LLM “Sydney.” Something really weird is going to happen, which is going to be interpreted in a number of different ways and will lead to a lot of debate about the possibility that AI is becoming conscious.

Apple’s Siri Will Be Good, At Last
Because Apple is giving Siri’s software over to Google’s AI, I think Siri will suddenly be just good enough that a lot people will be ecstatic. Google Gemini 3.0 is already best-in-breed as it is, and if you stick in to Siri, a lot of people are going to be astonished at what they can do with it. How many of them will “fall in love with it” as one tech person predicted on a podcast, I don’t know.

There Will At Least One Major Breaking New Event
At least once during the year, we will all pause and go, “Huh.” I don’t know what it is — I just don’t think Trump is going to resign for any reason — but I do think something on the global stage will happen that changes how we view the world. It will probably happen in August, too.

2026 Has The Makings Of A Really Shitty Year, Despite Bad Years Usually Being Odd Numbered

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Usually, shitty years are odd numbered. Think 1939, 1963, and so forth. So, that’s why all things being equal, 2026 should be just A Year like any other.

But, in ways both personal and public, I think 2026 is going to be epically shitty. I know in my own life some pretty dramatic things will probably happen which are going to give me pause for thought.

If I’m lucky — very lucky — then one of those things will be a good thing: I will at least finish my novel and get a literary agent as a result.

But, otherwise, oh boy.

Trump could try to fuck with the 2026 mid-terms. The AI bubble could burst in a really big way. Those are just two things I can think of off the top of my head. But only time will tell, I guess.

I’m Really Worried About 2026

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have a feeling that 2026 is going to be a very turbulent year for me one way or another. It’s going to be a year of transitions, no matter what. If I’m really lucky, the weird vibe I’m feeling about the coming year will be because I know in my heart that the novel I’m working on is good enough to successfully be queried.

If I’m not lucky, then, lulz, some pretty fucked up shit is going to happen to me on a personal level because of macro changes out of my control.

And, yet, I’ve really appreciated this surreal moment in my life where I got to be an artist and just sort of drifted through life.

But, as I alluded to, I think this era in my life is probably about to wrap up because of fucking Trump. And, what’s more, we do have the 2026 midterms coming up and there are no assurances that they will be free and fair. The States kind of exists in a luminal political state at the moment where we’re not quite a democracy but not quite a total authoritarian state.

I think the exact term is “anocracy.”

Anyway, wish me luck, guess. If all goes according to plan, I am going to spend a big portion of 2026 querying a scifi dramedy. And, who knows, maybe it will be sold, be a success, and a new, a lot more fun era in my life will begin.

Trump Is A Fascist (Now What?)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Apparently, if you call Trump a fascist you get put on some sort of list of “terrorists.” Really? Is that what we’re going with these days? Ugh.

This is particularly amusing — and grating — since the incoming mayor of New York City called Trump a fascist in the Oval Office. (Essentially.) And Trump was cool with it.

But Trump is a fascist.

Stephen Colbert Is The Only Guy Who Can Save Us From Ourselves

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is a very unserious country at the moment. We don’t want to be governed, we want to be entertained. As such, I think the only sure-fire way for Blues to gain power again is through someone like Stephen Colbert being their candidate.

But I would be stunned if he was willing to do it. And that’s kind of the crux of the Blue dilemma going forward. Blues just can’t accept that what people want is a policy-free “vibe” candidate like Trump.

They don’t want serious policy-wonk candidates who will actually have a vision as to how to make their lives better. So, especially in the context of us being in a luminal space when it comes to be a democracy at al….I just think we should accept that we’re going to be governed by idiot MAGA people for the foreseeable future.

I Think I May Be A Rahm Emanuel Independent, Politically

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am not a Democrat. But I fly pretty close to that political sun, so I listen to a lot of center-Left podcasts and when former Obama era Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel was on Pod Save America, I found myself nodding in agreement a lot.

The core problem for Blues is what people want — an infotainment figure who makes politics “fun” and a blood sport, comes exclusively from the center-Right. The only person who comes close on the center-Left who could be a Trump-like figure for Blues is Stephen Colbert and he just won’t do it.

So, as such, Blues have to hunker down on good policy.

And I think Emanuel’s policy views are pretty good. Things like telling Democrats to de-emphasize “project trans kids” and also pass legislation that would bar under 16 children from using social media makes a lot of sense to me.

But we will have a long ways to go. A very long ways. We still don’t know if we’re even enough of a democracy still to ever have free-and-fair elections.