No is going to save us. I guess the case could be made that the military might step in, but even that is a questionable line of reasoning. These days I swing wildly between assuming everything is going to work out and knowing that in the end I’m going to be just another of the “disappeared.” That House Trump would be acting so blase about what’s going on indicates to me that Trump, himself, is a coup.
What this means is Trump is the worse case scenario. The Republican Party doesn’t believe in liberal democracy or the rule of law — or the Constitution for that matter — and so, really, the entire fate of the nation hangs not on our political process but Trump’s likely continued mental decline.
Or, put another way, darkness has fallen. We pinned all our hope on Mueller saving the day, which only gave Trump time to learn how to use the levers of power. With the House under Republican rule for two years, he was given absolute power. It wasn’t until he was finally give a political pardon by the “bad optics” of the Mueller’s congressional testimony that he finally self-owned to the extent necessary for the House to get some backbone. But by that point it was too late. That Trump was so arrogant as to think that releasing what he did about the phone call to Ukraine would exonerate him gives us all the insight we need into the worldview of House Trump.
I find myself thinking how, exactly, America will finally descend into tyranny. It seems that what will happen is Trump will not be convicted by the Senate and then he will turn around and make absolutely sure that there is no free and fair election in 2020. It doesn’t matter how it happens, it will happen. If all else fails, he’ll get Putin to directly hack into the election. Trump’s failsafe will be doxing or bribing individual Electors. He pardons everyone as needed and then that’s that.
The next logical step will be to weaponize the existing ICE camp infrastructure. In his second term, he will grow so brazen as to be darkly comical. He will simply round up anyone he doesn’t like and either murder them or put them in a camp. All Trump really needs is a war or a major domestic terrorist attack to make this a reality. All things being equal, as of October 2019, Trump has an open road to finally getting what he wants — the right to be a fascist autocrat.
Again, like I said, there’s only one likely to make this difficult — Trump himself. If Trump finally snaps or does something so completely indefensible that he finally loses Republican support, I honestly don’t know what will happen. Republicans already are effectively using the, “Ok, so convict him and fuck you” defense. They don’t say it — yet — but that’s the effective consequences of their behavior.
Moscow Mitch has already suggested that he will actively squash any real attempt to try Trump in the Senate. So Trump even make it absolutely impossible for Republicans to defend him and still get away with it all. I always thought Trump would snap and there would be some sort of Regency. Now, I realize I was being surreally naive. Trump’s going to lose his shit and do it all in public. No one is going to say anything. Nothing will be done — at least within Republican circles.
So, it’s completely possible that Trump will escape justice AND be completely bonkers. He will be nothing more than King George III. A mad king. Very serious people will have spent so much time bickering about the subtle re-election strategy genius Trump has been playing that they will barely realize it when the are stood in front of a ditch and shot in the back of the head by an ICE agent.
The crux of this is we were so busy studying the exact nature of MAGA’s support for Trump that we completely overlooked that the entire Republican Party was being held hostage by Mad King Trump. When all of this first came out, I could not believe it. It seemed a little too on the nose. While it’s still possible Bill Barr is Q and he’s going to pop out and say “baba booey” that it hasn’t happened yet is a very dark sign. If this is all true and Barr and Pompeo are STILL looking for the supposed sinister origins of the Mueller investigation that will clear Manafort so Trump can pardon him then we are in very, very dark times.
And our only possible rescue is not anything we might do, it’s Trump finally going batshit insane to such an extent that Republicans finally, finally buckle just enough to convict Trump in the Senate. Then any number of potential would-be Trumps can jump into the arena and do it all over again. Only this time they will be younger, more focused and more passionate.
I hate horror movies. But we’re living in a political one right now. The end of Drag Me To Hell — a movie I’ve never actually seen — seems to fit what’s going on. Or maybe Deliverance. Any movie where one “subverts” the expectations of the audience.
I mean, we got Trump red handed and…nothing. Nothing’s happening. Barr, Pompeo, Mulvany, et al are still in power, still setting policy as if nothing has happened. The enormous abuse of power associated with trying to undermine the basis of the Mueller Report continues unabated. It’s all happening in broad daylight and there’s no sense of shame, no sense of the nation being in an existential crisis.
Things are weird.
This is a seriously fucked up situation.
What’s worse, even if we somehow magically extricate ourselves from the political cancer that is House Trump, there are a half a dozen would-be Trump’s in the pipeline who are younger, more focused and even more passionate in their hatred both of liberal democracy and brown people. In fact, I would go so far as to say what would have to happen to “save” us is so horrific that I don’t even want to think about it.
Let’s just say — it’s really bad. It’s so bad that, well, let’s just hope that doesn’t happen.
The only hope I have at this point is the cold, hard fact that the American Military is simply not going to do what Trump is going to want them to do very soon — purge Congress of Democrats and dissolve Blue State governments.
But even then, things are not looking good for our democracy. Moscow Mitch is already fundraising off his ability to obstruct Trump’s impeachment trial in the Senate. So, that definitely seems to indicate Moscow Mitch is prepared to do everything in his power to save Trump and destroy traditional American liberal democracy.
The aspect of this that should give you pause for thought is Trump is, in himself, an existential threat to American democracy. I’ve been ranting about this for three years to anyone who would listen and, well, lulz? In other words, if Trump isn’t removed then the United States is little more than a Russian-style “managed democracy.”
Now, remember, the moment Trump sees this for what it is — an existential threat to his presidency — he’s likely to snap mentally. As I have written repeatedly, it’s possible that we won’t save ourselves in the end, Trump’s mental instability will. But given the amazing extent of the cancer Trump has caused in the executive, we have to get rid of Pence too.
While a President Nancy Pelosi might make liberals spooge their pants — in real terms it would only be fun for about 24 hours. Then we enter a dystopian political hellscape as everyone turns on her for different reasons — many of them Democrats!
Here lies America. Also known as Columba. Once considered exceptional, a shining city on the hill for humanity. Now she lies in state to be honored one last time before slowly being lowered in the ground along with Athens, Rome and other, now, forgotten states that once claimed to serve the people not the powerful.
The end.
Birthed in New England after the shot heard ’round the world, she now is just another dead idea that has shuffled off the earthly plane. At previous junctures of note, leaders arose to save her from the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. This time, however, was different.
How, you may ask, could such a powerful idea die so quickly? What “sudden illness” at last buckled her knees and had her bow, at last, to the dark forces of tyranny? Was it a “stab in the back” by nefarious forces? Was it a sneak attack from an unknown, external foe?
No, it was political leukemia. Though America has suffered the political terror of cancer before, this time was different. It metastasized so quickly and with such force that there was nothing to be done. By the time the condition was a last addressed using the wonders of modern science, America, also known as Columba, was laid low.
And, really, America had only herself to blame. Though she once banned the devil’s drink, her death came not from an excess of liquor. It came from a corrosive, deadly elixir made up of greed, power and wilful ignorance. The tribunes, who once fought so hard protect her ability to speak, at last traded their honor for access to the halls of power. When the death rattles began, they were too quick to adopt the messages of those who wished her ill, rather than realizing that the truth was their charge.
The hope of America has now been replaced by American Carnage. America allies herself with the forces of darkness around the globe. The rot of her civil society was to great, even for her once powerful Constitution. Thus, the dream of Father Abraham is now, at last over. His martyrdom and that of the multitude during the storm he successfully piloted his people through, is now just another death in vain.
All empires must fall and so too, has America.
The great tragedy of this once proud nation is its citizens did not even try to spare themselves from their fate. With their eyes wide open, they allowed themselves to led into the darkness to be slaughtered.
Things have gotten both so dumb and so existential when it comes to the impeachment and removal of the tyrant Trump that I feel things need to be explicated in a very simple fashion.
If you want to understand what’s going on in America right now, look at this clip from Animal House.
Bluto is the American public. He’s finally been roused from his sleep. He’s mad as hell and wants to do something about Trump. But for the moment he’s not really being listened to. He’s call a “moron” by The Cook Report and many in the press who would trade access to power for patriotism. He might not have all the facts down, but he has passion and principle.
It’s not until people who have something to lose decide to act that anything actually happens. And, so, we are a historic precipice where things could go either way. We could get pushed off the cliff into tyranny, or we could save ourselves.
This is a deep dive into the Trump Era and the likelihood it may end sooner rather than later and in a manner that saves the American Republic. I’m generally not too sanguine at this point. Something truly out of the ordinary will have to happen for me to have any hope.
I just don’t see that happening. Darkness has fallen. The process of whereby the Constitution is effectively destroyed in well on its way. I won’t say it’s too late, but someone, somewhere is going to have to get outside their comfort zone.
Having said all that, if nobody is willing risk what they have to save the Union, then, well, we get what were deserve. Let’s go through how we got to this point to begin with. Trump has survived a lot of political disasters, so he has every reason to believe he can do it again.
Access Hollywood Tape
Trump initially did not take the tape seriously. It wasn’t until he finally realized it was an existential crisis that he did something out of the ordinary — he apologized. That helped turn the tide and he achieved his goal — survive long enough to keep the nomination and be on the ballet on election day.
The Election
Trump was facing a historically poor candidate. He also benefited greatly from the excitement of the “Trump Train.” This was when a lot — a lot — of people simply tuned out anything they didn’t like about Trump. Also, remember, the second Comey Letter that said the FBI was considering reopening the Hillary emails case. That, according to Nate Silver, was a crucial factor on Election Day itself. Add to this the various forms of mind fucking the Russians were doing and Trump’s “victory” had something of an assist
The Mueller Investigation
This was more than just the actual investigation itself. This was really Trump’s first two years when he had a Republican House. That really was the firebreak he needed to learn how to begin to use the levers of power. this gave Trump the ability to do some pretty heinous things without any pushback from Congress. Trump was and is criminally incompetent. In some respects, after it became obvious that the Republican House — and specifically Paul Ryan — were completely abdicating their Constitutional role for partisan gain, Trump had free reign to do whatever he wanted. As a result, a lot of liberals began to ascribe Mueller with near-demigod like qualities that he, alas, did not in fact possess.
The Mueller Report
Trump survived this because of Bill Barr’s excellent media messaging. He released the summary, it wasn’t sexxy enough and the air drained from the situation nearly entirely. He then released a redacted report and it was so long and didn’t have something sexxy like an indictemnt of Don Jr in it, so people shrugged and went back to enjoying the “humming economy.”
Having said all that, how could Trump escape this current situation? How will we know he isn’t?
From a strategic standpoint, while the Ukrainian situation as of now is going to leave a mark politically no matter what, the real risk is more Trump’s reaction to the situation. Trump’s slowly losing his mind from the stress and so the real risk is not that he’ll be convicted in the Senate on the merits of the case, but that by that point he will be a ranting insane person who has sent the nation a dick pic or tweeted out the n-word to Obama.
I say this because, remember, all Trump has to do is survive a Senate vote. That’s it. That’s all he has to do. It doesn’t matter what he has to do to get there. Once he’s in the clear, he can go full tyrant. He fucks with the 2020 election in a pretty brazen manner. Nothing will be off the table. He will proactively work with the Russians. He will dox or bribe individual Electors post-election should he somehow magically lose despite cheating.
If that’s the only metric you have, then, again, I would worry about about Trump going bonkers than the actual case against him. Remember, Rudy, Barr and Pompeo are now actively looking for evidence that would subvert the Mueller report’s origins so Trump has the political cover to pardon Manafort and maybe Flynn. The judicious release of their “findings” would likely change the political narrative long enough for the wind to leave the impeachment drive. That no one has resigned or really gotten in all that much trouble indicates that the Trump Administration at last, finally doesn’t give a shit about anything but power. They have such little shame that they are completely unmoored from any facade of caring about the democratic conventions of liberal democracy.
Things have gotten so bad for a number of reasons. One is Trump’s twitter feed. I suspect a big calculous in the minds of most of Trump’s sycophants is they simply don’t want to cross him and end up on the wrong side of a tweet. That Pompeo — who has long-term political dreams — would admit that “I was on the call” when it is provable that he lied on national TV about this matter shows you what I’m talking about. In normal times, that would end his career. But for the time, he’s faced no political consequences. So, he’s assuming Trump will survive and, too, shall he. The other issue is the MAGA base is so absolute in their support of Trump that a lot of otherwise “normal” people are not acting in the best interests of the United States. Any discernible patriotism or principle they might have previously be assumed to have is not applicable.
The only minor hint of an existential threat to Trump right now is the complete inability of the Republicans to come up with any form of effective, fact based messaging. They’re doing a piss-poor job right now. It’s getting so bad that many of them are hanging all their hopes on finding out who Orange Crush is and then kavanaughing him. They will make narrative about any personal foibles he might have, not the facts of the case. That they might get the poor guy murdered doesn’t really seem to bother them right now.
Another small, but significant risk for Trump and the Republicans is in their effort to intimidate their opposition and whip up the base, they could very well radicalize a huge swath of the otherwise moderate middle. Americans find the term “radical” very ominous. Radicalism is simply not in their political worldview. But the conditions are there for something pretty astonishing to happen. It’s unlikely, but the case could be made that all the talk of “coup” and “treason” could light a fire under a lot of people who are already apoplectic over Trump’s policies in general. Trump has lost women and minorities. He’s running the country almost exclusively for the interests of angry racist misogynistic men. That’s why he and Republicans can come off as completely bonkers to the average person who didn’t vote for him — their signaling to the base in a code that they understand.
So there’s a risk that we might see the rise — briefly — of a radical center. I would call it a Radical Resistance, but that’s just me. If a Radical Resistance did emerge, then that would be one metric that might indicate Trump wasn’t going to survive. Indications that this is happening would be things like Jon Stewart joining Twitter and getting overtly political. Bush and Obama releasing a joint statement condemning Trump’s behavior. If stuff like that started to happen, that would be the “system” finally beginning to work in a sense. The bolts of society would begin to pop off and people would realize we were, in fact, finally in the Constitutional crisis we’ve all been talking about for about three years.
Things continue to be very fluid, so everything could change in a heartbeat. If this turns out to be some enormous mindfuck to purge the Federal government then, well, that’s that. It’s over. The end. If it’s not, then Trump faces the biggest risk to his political career — and maybe even his freedom of movement — that he’s ever faced. He’s already done significant political damage to himself by freaking out over the prospect of impeachment. He can always cheat himself to “victory” once he survives a Senate vote, but he has to get to that point first.
There are some very interesting things going on. I simply have no way of really understanding their context or potential consequences.
It seems as though the current Big Lie is that Schiff somehow was in cahoots Orange Crush. This is demonstrably inaccurate, at least from what I can tell right now. This is also mixed in with the suggestion that Orange Crush has some sort of nefarious “agenda.” While this is likely to be extremely effective with the mouth breathing MAGA base, it works solely to “own the moment” on Twitter and deflect from the fact that White House, itself, released documentation confirming what was in the complaint.
Also, not one, but TWO major presidential scandals were caused by people who weren’t exactly without an agenda. Mark Felt was Deep Throat because he was mad he got passed over to head the FBI. Linda Tripp and Lucianne Goldberg literally conspired with Matt Drudge to setup Bill Clinton and he still got impeached.
Another thing why is Trump so obsessed with being provided the cover needed to pardon Paul Manafort? And maybe even Mike Flynn. That House Trump continue to look for an excuse to pardon Manafort all in broad daylight as Washington burns to the ground is definitely a novel approach to this situation. I guess they both have no shame and believe that if they “prove” Manafort is “innocent” then all the “light treason” Trump has admitted to the last few days will magically go away. In a sense, I guess, they’re not far off. Either they successfully change the narrative altogether or the base is content with what they report to such an extent that it’s officially impossible to convict Trump in the Senate even if he completely loses all touch with reality.
Why clearing Manafort would be such an absolute obsession with Trump is very puzzling. Manafort is one of several direct links to Putin that might have some sort of leverage over Trump. It’s definitely very, very suspicious that House Trump would be willing to risk everything to give a political cover to pardoning Manafort. What gives? What’s going on?
To that extent, I just don’t see House Trump taking all this as an existential threat. In a sense, they’re using the, “Ok, then fucking convict me” approach to impeachment without any bravado or strategic messaging. Their actions simply don’t indicate that they are taking any of this seriously, probably because they know as long as they can keep Trump in office, they’re fine. Once Trump gets ANOTHER political pardon, he can pardon them, Manafort and Flynn for their crimes and they can move on. Trump actively and brazenly corrupts the 2020 election and the Thousand Year Trump becomes a reality.
Really, the only potential downside to this strategy is, again Donald J. Trump. Trump’s not handling impeachment very well, to say the least, and if he finally tweets out a dick pick or the n-word to Obama, then, well, maybe they have a lot bigger problem than they ever imagined.
Right now, I’m just not very sanguine for our prospects. The corruption and rot is simply too extensive. Someone will screw up. Or the “bad optics” of a major event will end the impeachment process. Or Barr will finally release his bullshit report and the MAGA base will finally have a response to what’s going on that lets them go to sleep at night. .
For America NOT to slide into a Russian-style “managed democracy” people with a vested interest in staying out of the frey will have to risk everything on principle. If that happens, then you’ll know things really are different for Trump. The system would be, at last, to work. Courage is the willingness to risk life and limb for your “scared honor.” You can’t be craven. You can use any type of traditional metric other than you have a soul and are a patriot. That type of thinking has been completely absent in the age of Trump and I have no reason to believe that will change. Jon Stewart — the one person who could be a leader in the move to end the Trump nightmare — has been completely silent. David Letterman giving a major address on a late night show would also help the push to punish Trump in a big way. Both Stewart and Letterman are great orators and might crystallize what a lot of people are feeling in a cogent manner.
So, as I’ve said before, right now, the fate of the nation rests on Trump going crazing and being a self-own artist. The stakes could not be any greater. This is the biggest political crisis in the nation’s history since the days immediately following the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860.
What happens next is anyone’s guess. I recommend you read the speeches of Lincoln and Churchill. Look into your soul and see how much you love the liberal democracy that is your birthright as an American. Are you really prepared to take the political risks necessary to keep it?
Shelton Bumgarner is writing his first novel. He encourages you to contact him at migukin (at) gmail (dot) com if you’re not insane. But if you do want to hate on him, it proves he’s poppin.
I am not suggesting that I have any particular insight into what’s going on right now, but there are so demostrable Trump-Ukraine datapoints that I feel are not being observed.
Trump’s call with the Ukrainian president was about 30 minutes. The rough transcript it maybe 10 or so minutes of that call.
There were definitely a few convient “…” in the document that we have.
The Ukrainians are tearing themselves apart because their government rather abruptly decided to give up the Dombas area that is currently controlled by Russians.
Russian troops around Ukraine have recently been seen sporting the markings of what has previously been used for an invasion force.
Russia without Ukraine — at least in its own mind — is not considered a “great power.” Putin bragged he could take Kiev in two weeks.
Trump is strangely obsessed with proving the origins of the Mueller report were somehow bunk and therefore would be given the political cover to pardon his former campaign manager Paul Manafort. Manafort pretty much showed up on his doorstep at a very convenient time. He worked for free, even though he owned, like, $20 million to Russian thugs. Manafort was connected to Russia through the deposed president of Ukraine…who is considered something of a Moscow toady.
I honestly don’t know what any of these facts mean. But it definitely doesn’t smell right. It definitely gives you a superficial impression that Trump might have a transactional reason for pardoning Manafort that is not neither is in the best interests of the United States, nor lives up to his oath of office.
Add to this that Trump had a two hour chat with Putin alone — and destroyed the notes — and it begins to seem rather surreal. I just think maybe someone, somewhere, needs to start looking into why Trump is so obsessed with debunking the Mueller investigation even though he got a political pardon after the “poor optics” of Mueller’s testimony to Congress.
I suggest Republicans who are absolutely determined to ride the MAGA pony all the way to the bottom at least pause for a moment as to what’s going on — Barr and Pompeo are actively — right now! — trying undermine the basis of the Mueller investigation by badgering foreign powers into giving them something they can use to release an “anti-Mueller Report.”
Why would Trump be so obsessed about this if it wasn’t for one thing — it would give him the cover needed to pardon Paul Manafort. And maybe even Mike Flynn. That they continue to do all of this in broad daylight as Washington burns to the ground is definitely a novel approach to this situation. I guess they both have no shame and believe that if they “prove” Manafort is “innocent” then all the “light treason” Trump has admitted to the last few days will magically go away. In a sense, I guess, they’re not far off. Either they successfully change the narrative altogether or the base is content with what they report to such an extent that it’s officially impossible to convict Trump in the Senate even if he completely loses all touch with reality.
For the visually oriented journalist.
Why clearing Manafort would be such an absolute obsession with Trump is very puzzling. Manafort is one of several direct links to Putin that might have some sort of leverage over Trump. It’s definitely very, very suspicious that House Trump would be willing to risk everything to give a political cover to pardoning Manafort. What gives? What’s going on?
To that extent, I just don’t see House Trump taking all this as an existential threat. In a sense, they’re using the, “Ok, then fucking convict me” approach to impeachment without any bravado or strategic messaging. Their actions simply don’t indicate that they are taking any of this seriously, probably because they know as long as they can keep Trump in office, they’re fine. Once Trump gets ANOTHER political pardon, he can pardon them, Manafort and Flynn for their crimes and they can move on. Trump actively and brazenly corrupts the 2020 election and the Thousand Year Trump becomes a reality.
Really, the only potential downside to this strategy is, again Donald J. Trump. Trump’s not handling impeachment very well, to say the least, and if he finally tweets out a dick pick or the n-word to Obama, then, well, maybe they have a lot bigger problem than they ever imagined.
Let’s go through how Republicans are messaging impeachment right now, shall we? As you read this, remember that Republicans have one goal and one goal only — keep Trump in power so he can rig the election in 2020. That’s it. That’s their only goal. That’s all they need to have happened for it to be a win. They are completely devoid of any shame and crave power for power’s sake. The no longer believe in liberal democracy and everything is wrapped up in the cult of personality wrapped around Trump.
It seems as though the current Big Lie is that Schiff somehow was in cahoots Orange Crush. This is demonstrably inaccurate, at least from what I can tell right now. This is also mixed in with the suggestion that Orange Crush has some sort of nefarious “agenda.” While this is likely to be extremely effective with the mouth breathing MAGA base, it works solely to “own the moment” on Twitter and deflect from the fact that White House, itself, released documentation confirming what was in the complaint.
Also, not one, but TWO major presidential scandals were caused by people who weren’t exactly without an agenda. Mark Felt was Deep Throat because he was mad he got passed over to head the FBI. Linda Tripp and Lucianne Goldberg literally conspired with Matt Drudge to setup Bill Clinton and he still got impeached.
Next, we have the “don’t fuck with us” strategy of Republican messaging. This involves throwing around the type of bonkers Trump rhetoric in an effort to raise the stakes so high that it grows to be so dangerous that nothing happens. The only problem with this is there’s at least a chance that one, someone gets murdered, too, it only causes the other side to grow more radicalized. Instead of intimidating Democrats into backing down, you cause the creation of a Radical Resistance.
Throw into this the very serious possibility that the Trump Train is now the Crazy Train and Republicans have a problem. As of this moment, if you accept that all they have to do is keep Trump in power through Nov. 2020 to win, then, in a sense, they have a 50/50 shot. But if you throw in the “known unknown” of how completely bonkers Trump may grow over the coming days, then those chances don’t really go down, but the risks definitely increase significantly in ways that are not easy to calculate.
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