Tag: Weimar America

A Second American Revolution?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more I think about it, if you want to get all apocalyptic about it, it’s not a Second American Civil War we should be worried about it’s a Second American Revolution.

Would the Second American Revolution be more like the First French Revolution?

The reason why I say this is we’re looking at the existential threat facing the United States all wrong. While, yes, there are two sides to the conflict brewing within the United States, the case could be made that once we break the seal on this matter, no institution will be spared.

So, in that sense, it would be a lot more like a revolution than a civil war. The American Civil War actually strengthened a number of existing institutions in the United States after it was all done with. If, say, Trump attempts to take “total control” as Roger Stone would suggest he do, then any domestic insurrection would likely leave no existing institution untouched.

In fact, the United States may be completely re-magined if such a rebellion against Mad King Trump’s Trumplandia succeeded. A lot of bent up political reforms would explode out into the open rather radically in a very short amount of time and, as such, when all was said and done, future historians would definitely mark the looming conflict a “revolution” and not a “civil war.”

One reason why we think we would have a “civil war” instead of a “revolution” is we are, in our minds, fighting the last major domestic war — the American Civil War. But there was a American Revolution before that

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Before we all get too hysterical about any of this, there are some caveats. We could still simply slip into autocracy with our eyes wide open and in a rather peaceful manner. Instead of any great historical drama, it would be a rather prosaic slip into a very American autocracy in the sense that Trump keeps doing what he’s already doing for a few years before the final boom drops. That would give people time to slowly grow accustomed to the change in the American experience and so it all turns into a lulz.

Only when, say, Q in a few years orders his followers to empty the cities and we have American Killing fields will anyone get too upset.

But, we are talking about a huge fucking moron named Donald Trump. He’s a massive self-own artist and, as such, out of sheer criminal incompetence he stirs up the volk in a way no one expects. Some pretty surreal political events might happen in quick success and before we know it, some sort of New Model Army has been established and not even the U.S. Military survives the implosion of the country.

As such, it’s at least possible that Trump without even really thinking about it pushes the country not into civil war, but revolution. Things grow far more radical for both sides and it’s not about states wanting to leave the Union or not, it’s about are we Trumplandia or are we America? Are we an American Union and, as such, take such a massive crisis as an opportunity to renew or covenant, or are we nothing more than a reflection of Trump’s ego? The stakes , as such, grow far more serious on a number of levels.

I will point out that usually it’s a war that leads to major technological innovations, so it’s possible to imagine a scenario where a lot of technology that’s kind of there-but-not-being-used like AI, MX, robotics and automatic comes roaring to the forefront of society because they’re used for military reasons in a desperate pitched battle for control over the geographic area currently known as the United States of America.

All of this is extremely fantastical. I struggle to even comprehend how an otherwise stable nation like the United States could find itself in a position where civil war — or revolution — is actually a near future possibility. It just makes no sense.

But here we are.

But Why?

Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t want a civil war. I don’t want a revolution. But given my personality, it’s inevitable that I will talk about stuff like that to a near-obsessive extent for no other reason than it makes me feel better.

One of the place I’ve begun to tentatively think out loud about civil war or revolution is of all places Tik-Tok. Some obvious MAGA person responded to a video I did about all that bullshit by saying, “Biden and all of the Democrats will be destroyed.”

Now, given that the Left and Right echo chambers no longer talk to each other online, for someone to say so definitively that MAGA would win a civil war / revolution indicates that he definitely has been thinking about such events, too.

This brings up the this issue — I simply don’t get all the talk of inflicting terror on “Libtards” the part of MAGA-Qanon. There is something seriously fucked up in our political system that things have gotten this bad. I honestly don’t know why MAGA-Qanon is so bloodthirsty, even if only on a rhetorical level. What is the origin of all this hate, all this willingness to hurt people simply because they disagree with you politically?

The only reason why I talk about civil war / revolution is I’ve decided to take the overwrought rhetoric of MAGA-Qanon both seriously and literally. They want to have that conversation? Ok, well, I’ll give to them. I wish could prove to them that rather than be “destroyed,” “Joe Biden and the Democrats” are actually in a far better position strategically than MAGA-Qanon might otherwise thing.

In fact, I’ve written at great length about this very thing repeatedly. The only thing that MAGA-Qanon has going for it is a bloodthirsty first-mover advantage. If they can’t strike a knockout blow in the opening days of any civil war / revolution, they’re far from certain to win.

Anyway, I don’t want any of it. I just want a liberal democracy. Nothing radical, nothing controversial, just a functioning liberal democracy. That shouldn’t be too much to ask.

‘Washington, Nous Sommes Ici!’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If the absolute worst happens at some point between now and, say, April of next year and the United States simply collapses into warring Blue and Red States, it would not happen in a vacuum.

For about 70 years now, the United States has been the lynchpin of a stable liberal global order. If it effectively was no longer able to maintain that order, it’s likely everything would go tits up pretty quick across the globe. A series of regional wars would likely break out after the shock of America’s abrupt collapse wore off. All those wars would be marketed as “WW3.”

So, in a sense, you can’t talk about a civil war / revolution in the United States without talking about it from a global perspective. One upside to America being indisposed for a few years would be the rise of China would be hasented rather dramatically so at least we wouldn’t all die from WW3 breaking out between the US and China. In fact, by the time America sorted out if it was a Red State or a Blue State, the world might be so different that we simply wouldn’t be able to process at it at first.

Instead of having to wait 50 years for China to become a superpower, it might happen in five years. And, remember, what’s even more troublesome is there are no assurances that China and Russia won’t actually physically meddle in our domestic affairs during any implosion.

But, if it makes you feel any better, there is a chance that our NATO allies might also help us try to sort things out. So maybe some French soldier in the United States as part of the NATO Expeditionary Force might go to Washington’s crypt at Mount Vernon and say, “Washington, nous sommes ici!”

Or, put it another way, if the absolute worst happened, the implosion of the United States would be such a massive global clusterfuck that it’s ending would be equal to 1815 and 1945 when it came to historical milestones. At 70 years, we’re kind of early for something like this to happen. Usually, it’s closer to 100 years between geopolitical events that totally scramble the existing political order.

And, let me be clear about some things. One is, as I keep saying a succession of things will have to go wrong for Trump / Barr for the United States to implode. We’re hurtling towards a peaceful transition into a Russian-style autocratic managed democracy. Essentially, it’s already here. The only issue is, because of American self-perception, Trump needs to be a bit careful stealing the 2020 election so as to not crash into the American self-perception that we’re a “free” country.

Trump is so painfully stupid and ham handed that he could, in fact, very well single-handedly destroy the country.

But, again, a lot would have to go wrong for Trump to do that. Somehow, his fucking with the postal service, a fake announcement of a COVID19 vaccine and the “preliminary summary” of the Durham Investigation AND the fucking Russians hacking into our election systems would have to not get the job done by election night.

I just don’t see that happening.

Trump is going to “win” outright on election night and that’s it. A lot of liberals will get angry on Twitter but, lulz, so what.

What The Fuck Is Wrong With The United States?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States finds itself at a crossroads.

Either we slip quietly and peacefully into an American interpretation of Putin’s Russia, or the whole thing collapses and may be the best man win. I say this because the one result we would otherwise expect — a peaceful transition of power — is simply no longer applicable. Trump would rather literally end the United States as a nation than leave office and risk personal criminal liability.

But this leads to a question: why?

It seems to me the issue is Obama’s second term. Which leads to the question, why did THAT get us to this point?

The only answer I have is our fate was sealed the moment WW2 ended. It was inevitable that a Baby Boom would occur and as those people grew older and generally more conservative they would drag the country long with them. Then throw in that the Republican Party has known since at least 1980 that long term demographic trends weren’t on their side and, well, here we are.

So, in a general sense, someone like Obama was inevitably going to become president and someone like Trump was inevitable going to become a president as a result.

I would make the case that we’re actually a little early for the fall of the United States. Or, at least, at the early end of a spectrum that goes out until about 2028. I say this because unlike Hitler, it wasn’t like the United States lost a war or anything. We actually won a war — the Cold War.

But here we are.

A country with domestic peace and prosperity and a long tradition of liberal democracy is now careening towards either despotism or a civil war / revolution. It’s all very surreal — especially for someone of my age living through it all.

I really don’t want either option, to tell you the truth. I would much prefer we linger in this twilight era in our nation’s history for the rest of my life. I could handle 40 more years of being just before a decent into final political oblivion. At least, then, I wouldn’t have to live with the New Order.

But this moment in time can’t last forever. Our destiny is waiting for us one way or another. I totally believe we’re going down the peaceful transition to autocracy route. That’s our fate as far as I’m concerned.

The only reason why I have a little bit of uncertainty is Trump is such a fucking moronic self-own artist that he may snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and then turn around and destroy the country to protect his own hide. Things are really that tense and perilous right now.

Only time will tell, I guess.

‘Surprise Me’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, let me say I have no revealed truth. I have no idea what is going to happen. But, for all my rambling about why I think Blue States could “win” a Second American Civil War if need be, I just don’t think the conditions are there for us to get that far.

The conditions are there for Trump to brazenly steal the election (one way or another) and get away with it. We’ll lurch into an American interpretation Putin’s Russia (at least on a political level) and that will be that.

Surprise me.

It seems to me that just like a lot of people were worried there might be a civil war in the collapsing Soviet Union and then it all happened rather abruptly and rather peacefully, the same thing is going to happen in America. But instead of ushering in an era of unprecedented freedom as happened in Russia, America is going to lose its freedoms one by one.

All the talk about civil war on the part of Right Wing agitators is more along the lines of such chatter in the closing days of the Weimar Republic rather than the Soviet Union. The Right is just nervous they won’t be able to consolidate power, and so they talk really loud about knocking heads. But things will never get that far because Americans are so politically docile that, lulz, what a joke.

Surprise me.

The momentum is on the side of the Bad Guys on this one. It seems to me the question is how far down the spectrum of tyranny do they manage to get before they realize they’ve done too much and pull back a little bit? I’m thinking we’re going to slowly drift towards the politics of modern Russia. In fact, the center-Left is so excruciatingly weak in the United States that nothing, in real terms, might even change immediately.

Any belated attempts to halt our sild into autocratic rule will be punished severely by Barr. The fascist response to events in Portland has already been normalized to such an extent that we could very well know that the practice of snatching people off the street has been taken nationwide and nothing, in real terms, happens. They could even add pushing people (like me!) out of windows and, again, it’s all a luz.

Something truly out of character for the average American — who would decide our fate — would have to happen. They would have to care. They would have to have an opinion.

Surprise me.

Watch Me Play ‘Trotsky’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The only reason I find Trotsky noteworthy relative to me is we’re both screw ups who sometimes manage to succeed despite ourselves. With Trotsky it was founding and organizing the Red Army so it reached the Gates of Warsaw, with me, it was a doomed magazine for ex-pats in Seoul called ROKon Magazine.

Our future?

Anyway, I am good at abstract thought and strategy. So, just for fun, let’s go through what I would do if 99.9% of everyone who should be doing this kind of thing weren’t interested and it was up to me save the Union.

  1. New Model Army
    I would enact unisex conscription immediately. In a sense, many of the women conscripted would be doing National Service as opposed to actually fighting, but they would be a critical supply of additional forces if things came down to a real crisis.
  2. Destroying The Republican Party
    This would be a war aim for me. Any territory the New Model Army took over, the first thing we would do is seize and destroy any Republican Party property we had control over. The Republican Party is little more than the American Nazi Party at this point and needs to be treated as such.
  3. A Promise Of Reparations In Exchange For Rebellion
    I would tell African American leaders in the South that if their community actively — and successfully — revolted against the white power structure there, when all was said and done, the Second Republic would codify significant reparations for slavery.
  4. Reach Out To Our Traditional Allies
    This is kind of a duh when you think about it, but American pride might get in the way at first — we would have to ask the EU and NATO to come to our aid. We saved Europe from tyranny twice in one century, the least they could do is return the favor. I fully expect Trumplandia would have Russians on American soil before it was all over with.
  5. A New Covenant
    I would pitch saving the Union this way — MAGA-Qanon begged for a civil war (why, I still don’t know) — and we’re going to finish it. We’re going to base the Second Republic on the ideals of, say, California. In a sense, I would do everything in my power to placate California so it stayed in the Union. Any idea of “Cascadia” leaving the Union is a very dumb idea in my opinion.

    Let me be clear — I am well aware of how delusional and bonkers the above sounds given that I’m an absolute nobody in the rural part of flyover state. But, as I mentioned, I am good at abstract thought and, lulz, no one listens to me anyway.

A Second American Covant: As Goes California, So Goes The Nation


Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Everything is so dumb.

That I even have to say that all things considered it makes a lot more sense for California to stay and fight than try to leave the Union is so, so, very stupid. I say this because our historical amnesia hit the point where everyone has forgotten that about 700,000 Americans died the last time states tried to leave the Union?

Don’t answer that.

Anyway, let me at least make the case for California staying in the Union instead of attempting to leave when Trump inevitably rather abruptly and brazenly steals the 2020 election.

The key issue is what California is — a massive state with a massive economy and a largely homogeneous polity. In other words, the very things that Calexit people point to as a reason for it to “leave” the Union, I point to as a reason why it has to stay and fight.

I just don’t see the liberal fever dream of a Blue State Republic happening. More likely than not, California would have to take the lead on responding to some sort of tyrannical power grab by Trump and work together with other major Blue States to renew the Union’s covevant.

As I’ve said before, if you look at the realpolitik of the geography of the United States, the Blue State play book writes itself. You use California as your dreadnaught. You blitzkrieg across the Great Plains from California and meet up with your Blue State brethren in the Midwest.

Then you bribe African Americans in the South with the promise of reprations for slavery and, ta-da, you break the back of MAGA-Qanon and re-unite the country. You have go through a Radical Reconstruction phase that would address systemic racism and misogyny and you cruise into something of a second Gilded Age that bursts forth from the foundation of a Second American Covenant.

All of that is very dumb, in a sense, because I have no idea if that plan would work. But it is something to believe in rather than simply California leaving the Union and expected to get away with it without suffering a great deal.

And, really, wouldn’t California want to remake the United States in its image rather than go through extended “Troubles” that would likely involve IT going through something akin to a Reconstruction? There is strength in numbers, after all.

2020 Will Be A Replay Of 2016


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve seen enough, as they say — Trump is going to win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote (rather significantly.) America’s liberal democracy will finally die. But why do I think this?

The Durham Investigation
Barr’s “preliminary summary” of this investigation will play the role of the Second Comey Letter. Not only is the whole thing bullshit, but the summary will be bullshit too. A lot depends on how stupid and or greedy Trump and Barr get. If they’re smart, they’ll simply insinuate in general terms that Obama and Biden are criminals who will be prosecuted after the election. If they get greedy, they might really pull shit out of their asses in a way that is so brazenly false as to make people mad. But I think if they are pretty vague and open ended in all of this, that they get what they want — a replay of 2016.

The Russians Hacking Directly Into Our Election Systems
Just like with the polls in 2016, mysterious, the polls will be wrong in crucial states. Just enough to push Trump over the top in the Electoral College. We’ll all blame the Durham Investigation or the power of the “boat voters.” But soon enough, we’ll have to accept the results. The fact that the Russians fucked with our elections as part of a quid pro quo for Trump removing 1/3 of our troops from Germany will be like Who Really Shot JFK. After House Trump Republicans keep winning and winning and winning and winning the presidency, people might get woke. But by that point it will be way, way, WAY too late. Could be 40 years.

Trump Fucking With The Postal Service
This is more cover for the Russians. It gives Nate Silver a non-bonkers explanation for why the polls were wrong again.

News of a “Vaccine”
At some point in late October or very early November, the news will be full of breathless reports about a vaccine being approved. Boomers will have a “permission structure” to vote for MAGA-Qanon Trump again. In reality, all of it is bullshit and just more cover for the Russians to get away with the Crime of Century.

Trump Is An Autocrat
Orange Man is simply going to throw as much money and abuse of power at this particular situation so he “wins,” no matter what. All the momentum and logic is on his side because of that. He will “win” but only because he’s an autocrat. I just don’t see Americans having it in them to do anything about it.

But….

Ok, now that I have that out of the way, let’s talk about what could go wrong for Trump. Well, at this point, the only thing I think that might go wrong for Trump is, well, Trump. He has Barr, yes, but Trump is such a fucking massive self-own artist that there might come a point that even Barr struggles to control the situation post-election.

The thing that would have to happen — Biden winning by an absolutely massive landslide simply isn’t going to happen. And even if it did, Trump would go nuts and tell his supporters he “really won.” The thing about all the “things go wrong for Trump” scenarios is they all point to one thing: unprecedented political violence in the United States.

Everything from Trump taking “total control” (through Barr) at one end of the spectrum to an actual massive fighting civil war involving WMD on the other end of it.

Nothing I see indicates that people are willing to do what is necessary to defeat Trump in the real world. So, Trump wins. And, yet, we have to go back to the surreal, craven and bloodthirsty rhetoric swirling around the Righwing echo chamber. It’s possible that they would be so stupid that they were the one to start some sort of civil war and, as such, they take away one crucial piece of the political equation that has helped them and will continued to help them — apathy.

If MAGA-Qanon go nuts and start blowing shit up and murdering people in cold blood, a lot of center-Right people who enjoy Trump’s policies (tax cuts) but aren’t exactly thrilled with him as a person might get woke in a surprising fashion. But that’s extremely iffy.

What I’m really saying is if Trump and Barr are too heavy handed in their craven quest to turn the United States into an autocratic managed democracy, there might — just might — be a reaction with a cascading sequence of events they can’t control. Remember — it is possible that on a political level we could be an autocratic managed democracy but for the average American nothing would really change. Or if it did chance, it would continue to change like it has over the last four years — in fits and starts while Trump distracts us by being a racist, bigoted, misogynistic moron.

Or, let me put it another way — as long as the United State’s gently drift towards a Russian style autocratic managed democracy without things getting out of control and we go full Nazi, then House Trump is fine. The more I think about it, the more I realize what’s going to happen is our particular brand of managed democracy might be it’s own thing. It might be that Trump (at least for the time being) doesn’t do a lot of most dire abuses that I keep fearing.

So, in a sense, for the first few years of Trump’s second term not a lot will change for the average person just raising their kids. But as we approach 2024, Trump is going to make good on his demand to get “12 more years” and that will be the next major milestone.

But that point we’re really going to realize the United States is no longer a liberal democracy and House Trump can — and will — do whatever the fuck it wants.

Possible Blue And Red Second American Civil War Aims


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate living in terror of abstract fears, so let’s pace out the possible war aims of a “Second American Civil War.”

Red States
Red States would want to turn the United States into a dystopian hellscape. They wouldn’t come out and say it, of course, but they would want an America indistinguishable from modern day Russia.

Blue States
The Blue State war aims are a bit more complicated because they have wide variety to choose from. Does they want to leave the Union? Or do they want to stay and fight and transform the nation by doing so? On a basic level, I think Blue State civil war aims would passing a number of Constitutional amendments — maybe even calling a Constitutional Convention — that would take practical steps to end systemic racism, promote equality between the sexes and codify some much-needed political reforms like ending the Electoral College, overturning Citizens United and doing something about the Senate. (Ending the Senate, because it’s an existential part of the Constitution, would pretty much require writing a whole new Constitution — so dramatically reforming it makes a lot more sense.)

In both cases, whichever side won would have to do a Second Reconstruction. I’m growing more and more worried that WMD would be used in any theoretical Second American Civil War, which would not only lead to massive loss of life, but radicalizing both sides in the extreme.

Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.

America’s ‘2024’ Problem


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something about Obama’s second term galvanized and radicalized the Republican Party to such an extent that Trump was given a springboard to the presidency.

If Trump wins a second term — which I think he will because he’s going to lie, cheat and steal his way into it — it’s easy to imagine a situation where the Democrat Party will experience a similar radicalization. And, yet, these are not ordinary times. What’s more likely to happen is Trump will purge the media in his second term and make all traditional notions of civil society and liberal democracy in the United States moot.

Also, remember, a lot — A LOT — of otherwise well-respect, intelligent people have completely invested themselves in MAGA-Qanon. So much so, that they have said some pretty bonkers things in his defense. Things are simply are nearly impossible to defend if he’s not in power and they have to criticize the sitting president.

The list goes on. But the point is — the United States is careening towards a historic fork in the road. Either we turn into a fascist state or we have a civil war. We can not go this far down the road to tyranny without slipping into it directly or solving this particular debate about the soul of the nation on some sort of battlefield.

Now, let me put all of this into context. I’m a man of peace. A man of ideas. But I am also taking seriously the batshit insane rhetoric now found among a lot of prominent Rightwing “thought leaders.”

As such, everything indicates that even if it’s just rhetoric for them, that someone, somewhere is going to take is seriously and blow something up. This may happen no matter what for no other reason than in their organsmic love for Trump, they want to give him an excuse to seize “total power” as Roger Stone would have it.

I have written at great length that, really, the last defense of what’s left of our liberal democracy is nothing more than our self-perception as Americans. Nothing has indicated to me that even that will matter in the end, but for one thing — House Trump is a bunch of self-own artists.

They are well on their way to cruising into “total power,” but they’re such morons that they could very well do the very thing that all the point scoring on Twitter by Blue Check Liberals has never done to date — make people care.

When the average person looks up and realizes some basic freedoms they assume they would have as part of their American Birthright are gone in a rather abrupt fashion, then it’s possible we’re all going to need to bone up on our Lincoln.