The United States is historically divided and, as such, it’s easy to imagine the Chinese seeing this and attempting to take Taiwan. They’re a rising power and usually it’s at times like these that historic miscalculations are made.
I say “miscalculation” because while the United States is VERY divided, I still think if something as huge as a huge regional war broke out we would — eventually — get our shit together and address the issue. What would probably happen is it would be a huge shitshow.
Unless the United States simply lulzed the whole thing and left Taiwan on its own — which it would not — China would have to take Taiwan as part of a huge first strike. We’re talking days or weeks.
Given how Taiwan has been preparing for this very thing for decades, that just wouldn’t happen. China’s best bet is to get the DPRK to commit geopolitical suicide by attacking the south in a big way to distract the United States from what was going on with China and Taiwan.
Something as big as a war between China and Taiwan would so consume the American media world that it would, in fact, unite the nation. Yes, a sizable portion of the electorate hates Biden enough that they would rather let China win a war with Taiwan than let Biden look good, that’s just a small, vocal minority.
So, what would probably happen is Japan, the United States, South Korea and NATO would throw military supplies at Taiwan. The whole thing would become a pitched battle to the point that China would either risk blowing the fucking world up or they would give up.
I have long been ranting about the implications of Trump being a deranged ding-dong, but we’ve reached next-level crisis because after January 6th, Trump isn’t going to have any political or legal options left. So, it’s very possible he’ll explode, instead of implode mentally.
If he were to implode mentally, then we probably wouldn’t know. He just would be catatonic in the White House and we just wouldn’t see him for a few weeks until he mysteriously popped up a few months from now tan, ready and rested. So, it’s very possible Trump will explode — he may very well go completely insane after Congress meets on January 6th.
Did Stephen King predict our fate?
My fear is, of course, that Trump will finally snap but we won’t realize what’s going on at first because he’s been acting crazy for so long that his sudden decent into crazyland will at first be just a matter of degree. But I think one way we will really begin to know Trump has snapped is a combination of him going transactional on Twitter and him growing extremely passive-aggressive there as well.
He’ll not only start to tell MAGA to do things for him in the real world, he’ll also start whining about how liberals “hate him and want him to kill himself” or even out of the blue talk about how he controls our nuclear arsenal. It will be talk like this that might — might — finally scare the shit out of Republicans enough that they decide to do something about it.
But, alas, I think even then, they’re going to sit on their hands. Trump would really, REALLY do something completely insane for Republicans to do anything at this late date in his administration. The only thing I can think of is Trump somehow goes way out of his way and starts a war with the DPRK which involves a limited nuclear exchange.
Then, maybe, #MoscowMitch might do something about Trump.
Otherwise, lulz, nothing matters.
Or, put another way, Trump has his fate — and the fate of humanity — in his hands for the time being and there’s nothing we can do about it.
This is probably how The Guns of August felt in 1914. Europe was nearly giddy at the prospect of war. So, too, are a lot of people — apparently a lot of them in the South — so giddy at the abstract concept of a Second American Civil War that they are completely oblivious to what they’re proposing.
I keep getting pings from the Usual Suspect of former CSA states — South Carolina and Alabama — from people obviously excited at the idea of a civil war or some sort of right-wing revolution. It’s surreal and disturbing that anyone would WANT America to buckle into civil war.
For Right Wing people to hate liberal so much that they would be willing to actually destroy the country they claim to love so much in their bloodlust against them….dumb and extremely callous.
But here we are.
So, what’s going on is while we all fear that SCOTUS could rule in Trump’s favor with this dumb and dangerous Texas case, the actual case itself is something of a place holder. What’s really going on is we’re all nervous Something Bad is going to happen that forces the issue of civil war / revolution.
Or, put another way — MAGA wants to murder liberals for political reasons and they just haven’t summoned up the courage to put their thoughts into practice. It definitely FEELS as though This Is IT. Something Bad is going to happen between now and, say, no later than April 2021 that causes the country to implode, divide and get extremely violent.
America, 2020.
The issue for me is, given that MAGA apparently has no war aims going into any such hypothetical civil war other than “murder liberals” and you have the setup for Red States to lose any civil war or revolution they might be looking forward to. Yes, MAGA would have first-mover advantage and a lot more leadership (for no other reason than the entire Republican Party is on board with destroying the country), but if a civil war actually happened, things would likely move very, very fast.
Blue State leaders would begin to rise the occasion pretty quick. I’m a big believer that the average person has it within them to rise the occasion should it happen — but they need the opportunity. (Trump is the exception that proves the rule.)
So, it would not take too many months of MAGA running around blowing shit up and killing people before a pretty huge swatch of non-MAGA people (many of them conservative) would begin to plot a counter attack. And that, in itself, is something we would have to get used to — no one under about 80 remembers World War 2 when there would battles won and lost, but ultimate the war itself was won.
As such, the first year or so of a Second American Civil War would be extremely chaotic and bloody as things began to sort themselves out. (Remember the moment any Second American Civil War starts, World War 3 starts, too, and it’s very easy to imagine the DPRK nuking a United States distracted by its own implosion.)
But, gradually, the economic, population and educational advantages of Blue States would show themselves and Red States would be thrown on the backfoot. Things would grow very radical for both sides and I could see Red States doing some pretty massive atrocities against, say, African American in the South — or even Jews for that matter.
Or, put another way, as things grew worse for the Neo-CSA, its government might grow more radical and Nazi-like. A race war might erupt in the South — especially if, say, Blue States told African Americans that if they rose up they would get Reparations for slavery after Blue States won the civil war.
The thing any shithead cocksucker who is excited about a Second American Civil War needs to be told is — it would be a massive, historic and global tragedy that would result in the deaths of potentially 100s of millions via various limited nuclear exchanges both domestic and internationally. It would be a tragedy that we would only give value and a narrative after the fact.
COVID19 cases in China continue to drop, just as cases outside the Middle Kingdom continue to rise dramatically. This leads to a scenario where what we all know is inevitable — China replaces the United States as the center of the global order — happens now, not 30 or 50 years from now.
It could happen a lot quicker than any of us might want to think, like, in two weeks. If the United States buckles sometime just past The Ides of March, you might see China make it clear who owns some pretty valuable islands in South China Sea. That would be just the beginning. They might attack Taiwan while they can. They might also gobble up North Korea if that nation collapses for some reason.
If they got away with that, then they might go for broke and make a huge land grab in Russia’s Far East. If Russia is just as incapacitated as everyone else by this point, then Siberia itself might be in play. Russia without Siberia is a major European power who might have a sudden reason to be far more nice to everyone around it. Maybe any election interference in the Untied States they do has a far different objective?
Or, really, you might even see any major land grab on the part of the Chinese as the thing that totally changes everything — suddenly Russia, the United States, India and Europe all join forces to control China. A pandemic might be just the thing to give China reason to believe they could strike Russia in a big way without fear of being vaporized.
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