by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Ahh, the curious case of one Donald J. Trump in the context of America’s inevitable slouch towards autocracy. It is easy to see Trump as “America’s Hitler” but the more I read up on Hitler, the more I have my doubts. Hitler was a Great Man of History. He bent history to his will and road it like a tamed tiger to great heights.
Reasons why we may have a civil war.
- Republicans have come to glorify political violence
Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want. - Republicans no longer believe in democracy
It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink. - Trump 2024
Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit. - Steve K Bannon.
Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War. - Extreme negative polarization
We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem. - A lack of shared values
As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up. - A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath. - SCOTUS sides with MAGA on the “Independent Legislature” concept.
I really don’t know that much about this idea other than it would pretty much give MAGA free reign to ignore the popular vote and use its power over state legislatures to deny Democrats the White House for, well, forever. Once it dawns on Blues that they simply will never be allowed to take the White House again, that might be the final breaking point.
Meanwhile, ding-dong Trump is too lazy and stupid to do even the most basic of Great Man plays. I mean, if Trump really was America’s Hitler he would currently be working on his plans for his third term in office and rounding up people like me so we could be put in an ever-burgeoning camp system.
While Hitler was a Great man of History, Trump just limps along, being a vessel, an avatar for the rage of your typical white Christian who is fed up with the so-called “woke cancel culture mob.” He doesn’t do anything. Yeah, he almost destroyed American democracy in 2021, but he was so vague and half-assed in his efforts — waiting until the very, very last possible moment to stay in power — that he was bound to fail.
I would like to take moment to note that one a macro level, it definitely seems as though January 6th, 2021 was the high point of MAGA. Or, if nothing else, it was the one moment when Trump actually had a chance to break the back of American democracy once and for all and effective rule as a dictator, at least on a political level.
We came so close to the end of our democratic republic. So. Very. Close.
Trump’s second term after January 6th would have been violent and chaotic, with the country constantly being on the edge of civil war as Trump consolidated power.
But being a lazy idiot, Trump blew it and so here we are. I think the question we should be asking ourselves is not “Is Trump America’s Hitler” but, “Who will be America’s Putin?”
That’s because it’s more likely at this point that the United States is going to become an “illiberal democracy” like found in Russia as opposed to some MAGA themed Nazi state. Although MAGA becoming American Nazism is still a very real possibility for various reasons because of America’s original sin of race….I think we’re probably going to just slide into autocracy without a shot being fired.
Gradually at first, then more rapidly, someone like DeSantis — or name a Republican — throttle what’s left of American democracy and that will be that. Millions of wealth Blues will flee the country for various parts of the globe. The Constitution will be changed with the addition of MAGA-themed Enabling Acts and away we go.
Some 20 years from now, we’ll wake up and DeSantis — or someone like him — will still be a MAGA POTUS and he’ll be explaining to us why we absolutely have to “deNazify” Canada for this or that reason. I wish I was joking. I’m not. That definitely seems to be our immutable fate at the moment
In fact, the only wild card is, and always has been, Trump himself. If we’re going to have a civil war it will be because either Trump and his allies steal the 2024 election in a rather brazen manner, or their incoming agenda is so fascist in nature that Blue states begin to leave the Union.
And there is, of course, the issue of the “Independent Legislature” concept that SCOUTS is going to take up on December 7th. If they agree with that radical, bonkers concept…the idea that Blues might leave the Union in late 2024, early 2025 grows exponentially more likely.
At the moment, of course, all that sounds bonkers. And maybe it is. But it’s definitely something to think about going forward as we careen as a nation towards a very turbulent and dark future.
