V-Log: Blue Check Nattering Nabobs Can Just Shut Up — Trump Declaring A Fake National Emergency IS A BIG DEAL

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

As of this writing, he hasn’t done it yet, but he may very well.

I think despite all the Blue Check Twitter people telling the great unwashed masses to cool it, if Trump declares a fake National Emergency, a lot of average people could very well get very, very upset.

Silliness: What Will Trump’s Nickname For AOC Be?

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Obvious: Sexy Sandy
Trump is such a fucking misogynist and such a base human being that something like “Sexy Sandy” would see pretty obvious for him. The thing about Trump is he is — apparently — completely obvious to how he helps people’s careers by simply mentioning them, so it seems pretty inevitable that he’ll go after AOC in a direct way sooner rather than later.
Dumb: Silly Sandy
This is dumb, but because it’s dumb it seems like something Trump would come up with. But Sexy Sandy seems like a two-fer for him: he gets to deride her having been called Sandy at one point in her life and he gets to remind his base not to take her seriously because….she’s hot?
Weirdly Pop Music Aware: Sexy Sadie
I really don’t expect this one, but Trump’s of the right age to make a Beatles reference without realizing it and making AOC much, much, much more popular with a single tweet.

While it would be cool, really cool, if Trump and AOC went at it on Twitter for a few hours in 2019…I think it’s just a liberal fever dream at this point. I doubt seriously anything like that would happen. Right? Right?

Trump Endgame: State Of Play

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

It seems to me that a lot of political observers mistake the near-constant state of chaos during the Trump Administration as a sign that THE crisis we’ve all been hoping for and expecting is just around the corner.

I’m of a mixed opinion on that.

My back-of-the-envelope speculation is we’re going to know pretty soon if they’re right or not. Either this all ends by the end of 2019, or the talk about his political demise will simply bleed into the eventual and inevitable discussion about him grooming a younger, more focused protege who will guide his “legacy” for the next four to eight years after 2025.

At this point, I honestly don’t know which direction it’s going.

Right now, I’m tentatively in the latter camp. Trump is the avatar for some pretty significant demographic and economic macro trends in America society and while he’s an incompetent, deranged president, there simply isn’t the political will to unite to get rid of him in any manner other than simply waiting for him to end his second term.

So, what I’m saying is, we’re hurdling towards a point where our desire to get rid of Trump is equal to our inability to unite the political world enough to actually do it. He has a nice economy, a sold 40% of the population is pleased with this performance and, well, there you go.

There’s always the chance that the economy might falter, but there’s also the chance of a major terrorist attack of war that would make Trump a “hero” enough to stick around for as long as he possibly can. Add to this that the Democrats are playing by the “old rules” that are, like, fact based and stuff, while MAGA is playing by the “new rules” that are based on avarice for power.

So, we wait. We wait for Mueller to release his report, Trump to fight its release, it go to SCOTUS…and….I don’t know. It could be blocked 5-4 and we simply suffer for the next six years, or it’s released and…away we go.

But we honestly don’t know what will be in the report or if he’ll even file a formal one.

The point is — unless something jaw dropping happens pretty soon, Trump ain’t goin nowhere.

AOC & The ‘Mr Big’ Factor

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Again, let me be completely clear — I only keep writing about this because it’s fun-interesting and, given how dire the national news is right now, it’s nice, for once, to have a completely ridiculous story that makes me smile instead of want to walk off into the nears river, never to be seen again.

So, having said that, let’s continue to look into the no-win situation that the lovely and talented Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez finds herself in when it comes to some pretty basic things about her life and who she is. As an aside, I just noticed that the top autocomplete for AOC on Google is a search for bikini pictures of her, so it’s not quite as “sad” as Blue Check Liberals might have to believe for the average person to be interested in such stuff.

This, of course, leads into the general issues that I want to talk about. First, there have to be pictures of AOC in a bikini, somewhere. Unless she had the foresight to contact everyone she’s known the last decade and purge all photographic evidence of her being in a bikini out of existence, such pictures exist and they’re going to come out.

Furthermore, the more she draws attention to herself and the more the Right has a big old boner for her, it’s not going to take much mental energy for the insane Right, which is both physically attracted to her and repulsed by her policy views to go from, “I’d date that girl,” to…”Wait, who IS she dating?”

Now, let’s address all of this. The internal logic of the Right is something along these lines: “Because THEY will take her less seriously if they’re bikini pictures of her, then of course EVERYONE will take her less seriously if there are bikini pictures of her.”

And, so, they set themselves up to be self-owned AGAIN. Yes, whenever such pictures come out there will be a national debate on female politicians, a gross double standard and the changing nature of women in American society. But after things calm down a little bit, the center-Left will make fun of the Right for obviously lusting after AOC and the center-Right will believe they’ve finally proven that AOC is just “Sandy” from the block and as such shouldn’t be, in anyway, taken seriously or heard from again.

I, for one, believe barring something really, really unexpected, we’re going to hear a lot from AOC over the next 20 years and beyond.

Now, we come to a very delicate situation that I like to think of as “The Mr. Big Factor.” It goes something like this — as AOC profile increases and we learn one way or another if she’s dating anyone or not (I mean, is she? Is this common knowledge and I don’t know about it? That’s possible. I just checked her Wiki profile and….nada. No mention of a boyfriend.) there’s a good chance things could get a little surreal.

If she’s NOT dating anyone right now, then a lot of “Mr. Bigs” will see her as the ultimate arm candy and begin to swarm her. And, here’s where it gets surreal — a lot of them could be extremely conservative older middle-age men who completely disagree with her political views.

Then is when we’ll know if she’s The Real Thing or not. If she manages to curve their advances and find, say, someone like Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey as her date to major events, then we’ll know she’s in it to win it. But if she turns around and dates some asshole MAGA Wall Street jerkoff, then, well, there’s that.

The point of all of this is — she needs to get ahead of this. That’s all I’m saying. That’s the only advice I might give her. She’s doing a great job otherwise and I’m beginning to enjoy her policy views. Shrug. It’s not really my place one way or another, but I do hope her the best and it seems as though only by addressing the issues that I have set forth now on a proactive basis instead of waiting for some incel to try to do a gotcha on her that things will work out for the best long-term.

But what do I know, I lead a “sad” life for even talking about all of this in the first place.



This Is Why We Got Trump: AOC’s Romantic Status & Blue Check Twitter Liberalism

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

It appears to me the following is happening: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez presently politically inhabits a nether region where she’s a Leftist darling and a Rightist bugbear. Where the Left sees the future and a strong, intelligent Latina who is the future of the movement, the Right sees an ignorant bimbo Communist that they not-so-secretly collectively lust after.

And then there’s the center.

So, I suspect that soon, very soon, like after the 60 Minutes interview scheduled for tomorrow (Sunday) as I write this, she will be introduced to a much more centrist audience who will see her in a whole different light. They’ll be intrigued that such a young, affable, attractive young woman is also growing into an ideology whose avatars are dusty old people.

As such, the dynamic may change dramatically. Things like her current romantic status, which the Left thinks you’re “sad” for even being interested in in the first place will suddenly be something that a housewife in middle America might honestly and sincerely be interested in on a basic human level.

Now, this brings up something that really, really bugs the shit out of me. Blue Check Liberals on Twitter are the absolute worst when it comes to putting you on blast if you tweet anything to them that doesn’t fit their rigid ideological orthodoxy. So, when it occurred to me yesterday that I did not know an otherwise basic political question, “What is AOC’s relationship status right now?” and I asked that question in a harmless manner, I got piled on by a couple of Blue Check Twitter Liberals who were aghast aghast! that I would even entertain such a question.

I have no idea what is going to happen in the near future, but whenever I find myself getting angry over that little kerfuffle, I console myself by holding out hope that today’s “sad” question, might be tomorrow’s “duh” question.

In other words, AOC can’t stay in the public eye with the intensity that she’s experiencing right now without the question of her relationship status coming up. And if you want to jump down my throat for asking why it matters, my response is being in politics as a woman is a different experience than that for a man and add to the equation that AOC is demonstrably hot, then it’s not QUITE so “sad” to broach the subject of her romantic status.

And if you still are unhappy with me, I would like to observe that it’s self-evident that modern American politics for women isn’t, like rainbows and unicorns and free bleeding, you fucktwit.

In other words — AOC is hot enough that your typical heterosexual dude, regardless of political orientation, would take one look at her and at least entertain the notion of what it would be like to date her.

And, as such, we enter the nebulous realm of gender politics that is so nuanced that if you’re an ideologue at the extreme of either end of the political spectrum, you’re likely to give a rather ham-handed approach.

So, what I’m suggesting is it’s likely that by the end of 2019, my sincere question about her romantic status which Blue Check Twitter Liberals this is so “sad” is going to be extremely mainstream and, I would even go so far to suggest, something of a parlor sport for armchair political observers….that you find on Twitter.

Or maybe not. I am “sad” after all.

V-Log: Idle Rambling About Mattis & A Coming Civil War

By Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Some thoughts.

V-Log: Trump’s ‘New Rules’

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

#FOTUS: The Curious Case Of Cohen, Mueller & An Uptick In Searches

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Elliot Broidy got Shera Bechard pregnant, pressured her into have an abortion, gave her $1.6 million to keep her mouth shut and, well, that it. That’s what happened.

Having said that, apparently some sort of document associated with Michael Cohen’s cooperation with Bob Mueller is set to drop tomorrow and, well, something curious is happening in my Web stats. It’s nothing big, but there is a minor uptick in searches for associated with what I called the FOTUS Affair (Fetus of the United States). This uptick happened in just the last day or so and I had no idea that anything to do with Cohen was set to drop on Friday. I knew Manafort was supposed to drop, but not Cohen.

Below is the conceit of the FOTUS Theory, which proved to simply be a big misunderstanding caused by Bechard’s initial selection of Michael Cohen’s best buddy Keith Davidson to represent her in her NDA negotiations with Elliot Broidy.

So, it’s curious. All I can say is maybe someone, somewhere is hearing chatter about Broidy — Cohen — Davidson screwing over Shera Bechard and that might be something mentioned in the document Mueller is set to release tomorrow. I don’t think it’s going to be any truly jaw-dropping news like Trump REALLY WAS the baby daddy. I just don’t see that happening, given everything we’ve heard about in a court of law on the subject. It just doesn’t make any sense that that would be what people are hearing chatter about and hence causing them to search for what I wrote about.

But it is possible we might hear something about what, exactly, Broidy — Cohen — Davidson did to screw over Bechard (simply because it was illegal and that’s it) and as such that particular shitshow will come to the forefront for maybe one news cycle. Probably won’t even make it through the weekend.

The whole thing is just…curious. Unusual. In just enough way to make you cock an eye. Why would people suddenly be searching for what I wrote? Who knows what and why? What, exactly, is going to be dropped tomorrow? It’s all very intriguing.

Below is a video I did earlier in the day before I made the connection between the Cohen filing and any potential Shera Bechard news.

The Conditions Exist For A General War Between Russia And Ukraine

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Now, let me be clear — the conditions for a general war between Russia and Ukraine have existed for years. It’s just that in the last few days things have grown significantly worse, so much so that pretty much it’s just up to Putin at this point if anything happens. Let me explain.

1. Putin is corning Ukraine
It appears as though Putin is putting the squeeze on the Ukrainians in such a way that they might feel the only course of action they have is to attack the Russians in a big way, which would, of course, give Russia the cover it needs to start a general war with Ukraine. By “general war,” I mean one in which the endgame is to take Kiev and establish a rump state in the portion of Ukraine that could stretch from Odessa in the west all the way around Crimea then all the way around some more to Kiev.

2. Trump is historically weak
Trump is a historically weak president on a number of fronts, most especially Russia. Does anyone really expect Trump to do anything, anything at all if Putin starts a major war against Ukraine? There will be a major reaction by the Pols and the rest of NATO when it comes to sending arms and advisers to what’s left of Free Ukraine, but the United States under Trump is unlikely to say anything at all.

3. Trump’s in trouble.
It seems pretty clear to me that given the two things stated above, that Putin might try to help Trump by starting a major war against Ukraine, one big enough that it would distract people in the States to such an extent that Trump would feel comfortable firing Bob Mueller, pardoning half a dozen people and then hunker down for the House to officially flip in January.

Now, there are some major reasons why Putin wouldn’t do anything at all.

The biggest reason off the top of my head is while Putin’s forces could take Kiev in “two weeks,” it’s highly unlikely that they could keep it long term. It’s very possible that Putin has long ago done the geopolitical calculation in his head and he just doesn’t see a general war against Ukraine as worth it, ever. Even with a historically friendly Trump Administration in office, it just doesn’t make any sense for Putin to risk the existential threat associated with a war with Ukraine that he knows long-term could very well cause his downfall.

So, there’s a better than even chance that this is all nothing. This is just the usual geopolitical scuffling that goes on between the Ukrainians and the Russians and it’s all a big false alarm. We’re likely to know one way or another in a few days.

The Existential Threat Of Trump’s Silence On Ukraine — Russia, Or, ‘The Birth Of Novorossiya?’

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I’m merely an armchair observer on all of this, so if you want any scholarly insight into what’s going on, please look elsewhere. But having said that, it seems as though the conditions are there, at least, for a Russia to make a major land grab in Ukraine. I say this because Trump has been completely silent on what’s going on between Russia and Ukraine.

It definitely seems to me, at least, that Putin could see that silence as tacit acknowledgement from Trump that Putin can do whatever he likes in Ukraine without any threat of the United States doing anything. Hence, it definitely seems the ball is in Putin’s court. Putin could start a general war in a wide swath of Ukraine stretching for Odessa in the west to the border between Ukraine and Russia in the east and do some serious damage to the existing order in Europe.

Putin, as I recall, has repeatedly bragged that his military could take Kiev in two weeks, should the mood strike him. Of course, the reason why he hasn’t attempted that is he knows that while he could take Kiev, he probably wouldn’t be able to keep it. It would be Afghanistan all over again, only on a much larger scale and with much higher stakes. Putin knows Soviet involvement in Afghanistan contributed to that empire’s downfall and he’s smart enough not to repeat the mistake.

Hence, that’s why Putin’s been very, very cautious in what he’s done with Ukraine. He’s used “little green men” to do is bidding and what makes the recent navel scuffle in the Black Sea so out of character is how brazen it is. Under any normal American administration, the president would make a strong speech condemning the action and that would be enough for Russia and they would back off.

But, oddly enough, Trump has been completely silent on what’s going on between Russia and Ukraine and, as I mentioned, that might be enough for Putin to push things a little bit farther than he might otherwise. And, yet, Russia remains a weak regional power outside of its many, many nuclear weapons and as such its economy probably couldn’t handle a general war between Ukraine and itself. Putin is wily enough that he probably is content — hopefully — with the point he’s made and now he’ll just wait for his buttboy Trump to be his lap down at the G20 meeting.

That seems to be what is going to happen. But given how weak Trump is in regards to Russia, on a geopolitical level, Putin might see the Trump Administration as a historic opportunity to get as much as he can from Ukraine while he can. Or not. Who knows. Putin works in murky blackbox ways and anything is possible.

We’ll see.

The convention wisdom was, at least at one point in the last few years, that should the Russians start a general war with Ukraine that the first phase of the war would see a quick victory on the part of the Russians once they took Kiev. They would then hunker down on a huge chunk of Ukraine and attempt to organize the puppet state of Novorossiya. Then the rump state of Ukraine would organize a counter attack with a flood of arms from Poland and other interested states. But all of that worked on the assumption that the United States would take a lead role in all of this.

It’s very possible in today’s weird political climate that the Russians might — just might — feel they could risk a general war with Ukraine because the United States is pretty much a Vichy state at this point. But, again, I just don’t know. I honestly have no idea what is going to happen.

I think nothing is going to happen. Putin’s made his point and he’s just going to wait until just the right moment to come out of his spider hole to do a little mischief. But that could be years in the future.

Shelton Bumgarner is a writer and photographer living in Richmond, Va. He is currently working on his first novel. He may be reached at migukin (at) gmail (dot) com.