Worried About A Blind Item

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I only think about this again because the Speaker of the House spot is vacant for the time being. But there was a blind item on Tik-Tok some time ago that suggested there might be a sex tape of VP Harris getting it on with talk show host Montel.

That is all a bunch of smoke and mirrors at the moment, but I think it was Lenin who said a week sometimes has a the news of a decade crammed all into it all at once at times. So, imagine Biden shuffles off this mortal coil, Harris becomes POTUS and a sex tape leaks out and she has to resign.

Who would become POTUS at this point? Do we know? I guess it would be the president pro temp of the Senate, but I sure don’t like not knowing 100%.

Anyway, I’m sure I’m overthinking things and everything is going to work out just fine.

Right….Right????

Taking The Prospect Of ‘Speaker Trump’ Seriously

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing that is both funny and dumb and dangerous all at the same time is the idea that Trump might become Speaker of the House now that Kevin McCarthy has been given the boot.

If Trump was a true “great man,” then, yes, it would make total sense. But Trump is such an idiot that he just doesn’t have the abstract thought abilities necessary to do such a thing. I MIGHT be able to see Trump find a handpicked proxy that he might use to do his bidding, but at the moment, I really struggle to imagine Trump himself being willing to be Speaker.

The only — ONLY — reason why I could maybe see him doing it is he would really get off on leading the impeachment of Biden. Otherwise, the man is so dumb and lazy that he just would not be willing to do any of the practical work necessary to be a Speaker of the House.

And, yet, Trump lacks any abstract thought abilities to the point that I really struggle to imagine him having the gumption to pick a proxy person to run the House for him. Trump is very, very, very dumb and lazy and, lulz, you would have to spell it out to him like he was a complete moron — which he is — to get him to find a proxy for him.

So, I think, for the time being, we’re pretty safe. I can’t predict the future, but I seriously doubt Trump will be the next Speaker of the House.

The Theoretical Power Politics Of Nominating Trump For Speaker of The House

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is very dumb and a waste of time, but I guess I’ve had enough soju that I feel compelled to run this particular scenario. How, exactly, might someone put Trump’s name forward to be Speaker of The House?

Remember, the key thing is, at this point, whomever did it — presumably a Republican — would be playing with fire because Trump might lose. At the same time, even AOC wouldn’t risk nominating Trump– to troll Republicans — because he might win.

But, let’s say, some GQP backbencher grows so frustrated with what’s going on that they go nuts and put Trump’s name up for consideration to be Speaker. This is where things grow curious. If Trump really was a Great Man of History like, say, Hitler, he would be all over the idea of being Speaker, if, for no other reason than he puts him in line of succession to be POTUS again.

And, yet, Trump is so very fucking lazy and so fucking dumb that he just doesn’t have the cognitive ability to do an obvious autocratic play like trying to be Speaker. If Trump wasn’t so lazy, he would threaten to primary anyone who didn’t vote for him to be Speaker the moment it became a real possibility.

But, here we are, with Trump sitting this whole process out.

And, yet, I think if he was nominated, he would get at least 60% of the Republican caucus to vote for him on the first ballet. Just that might be enough to pique ding-dong’s interest to the point that he would start demanding he be nominated again so he could win.

If Trump became Speaker, it would be a total fucking shitshow which could very well directly lead to a Second American Civil War if Trump impeached both Biden and Harris then threatened Red States would leave the Union if the Senate didn’t vote to convict.

But, again, I’m really, really overestimating Trump’s cognitive ability. He’s an idiot.

My Theory About The Real Problem With Picking A New House Speaker

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know anything about anything, but my general hunch is the reason why House Republicans can’t seem to manage to name a Speaker is what they really want is a Speaker Trump. Or, at least, a sizable number of House Republicans would only really be satisfied if they could put his name up for a vote.

Speaker Trump

Or, put another way, a big chunk of House Republicans want an actual fucking fascist to be Speaker of the House. But because that chunk isn’t 218 votes, we are where we are now — with no Speaker. Because that’s the general sense I get from the MAGA Nazi chatter on Twitter: they really want a far, far Right Speaker who will burn the whole system to the ground in an effort to move us as close to an autocratic fascist state as possible.

It will be interesting to see how far all of this progresses. It will be interesting to see if we have to wait a few weeks for all of this to get sorted out or if it will wrap up pretty quick. At the moment, it seems as though this particular crisis isn’t going anywhere.

It makes you wonder what we would don if there was a major domestic or international crisis that would require the entirety of the Federal government to be functioning.

It also makes one wonder what a Speaker Trump would be like in practical terms. I think it would be a complete shit show — just like the first Trumplandia — and it would be a lot of Trump thrashing around looking for an excuse to crash the economy and or impeach as much of the Biden Administration as possible.

My Hot Take On The Clusterfuck Going On In The House of Representatives Right Now

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Just from what I can glean on Twitter, it seems as though the crux of the problem when it comes to electing a new Speaker is this: all the momentum is with the fascists, but the fascists don’t have the votes. So, you have a situation where a core group of MAGA fascists won’t be placated unless they elect an actual Nazi as Speaker.

But they don’t have the votes, there is some of a standoff going on between the fascists and the moderates how are queasy at the naming an actual fascist as speaker. It will be interesting who blinks first on this subject. I’m seeing a lot of chatter within far Right MAGA circles around Chip Roy. He makes Jim Jordan look like AOC and, as such, is perfect for what the dyed in the wool fascists want in a Speaker.

Really, what MAGA Republicans want is to cut out the middle man and have a Speaker Trump.

It could be that the House is going to give Trumplandia levels of “entertainment” when it comes to being out of control and generating vast sums of bullshit. Once they figure out who the Speaker is going to be, then the which hunts will be gin about “the Big Guy” and the border “crisis.” The number of people in the Biden Administration who are probably going to get impeached this year will be shocking.

And remember — we’re in for a moderate to severe recession this year and or next, which would be a perfect storm if you want to get the public behind successfully impeaching a president and or vice president for made up bullshit.

Are Bonkers MAGA House Republicans Plotting To Draft Trump To Be Speaker of The House?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In general, I doubt Trump is interested in being Speaker of the House. He’s just too dumb to have the abstract cognitive abilities to do something so norm breaking and diabolical. All of his political instincts are little more than a grunt. And, remember, Trump is not a Great Man of History. He’s just a very lucky idiot who serves as an avatar, a vessel for white Christian rage.

As such, if anyone is going to be Speaker who isn’t a member of the House, it’s probably going to be Newt Gingrich. He would be an ideal Trump proxy for bonkers MAGA House Republicans and he already has experience impeaching a Democratic president.

I don’t think we really appreciate what at fucking clusterfuck 2023 is shaping up to be on the political and impeachment front — despite the thin majority Republicans have in the House, Republicans there have one thing they all agree on: spite.

I could very well see Republicans impeach both Biden and Harris multiple times specifically to be extremely petty — they would want to take away the Democratic talking point of Trump being the only president impeached twice. At the same time, impeaching Biden (and Harris) a few times would retroactively make Trump’s impeachments no big deal.

“Everyone gets impeached,” MAGA House Republicans would say.

The only way I see there being a Speaker Trump is if the battle over the Spearship lingers long enough for it to catch Trump’s attention. I could see, maybe, Trump seeing an opportunity and swooping in to be Speaker because he’s the one person that the entire Republican caucus — or at least 218 of them — can agree on.

And don’t let yourself be fooled by the myth of the “moderate Republican” who would object to Speaker Trump. Ha! Just like there were probably moderate Nazis, there are “moderate” MAGA Republicans who will inevitable tow the line should they be forced to vote for a Speaker Trump.

I want to be wrong. But, then, I would prefer Biden and Harris not be impeached a few times between January 2023 and November 2024.

If Republicans take the House, which historically, they are favored to do, MAGA will have the power to impeach members of the Biden Administration. Given how fucking spiteful a Republican controlled House will be, it’s not a question of if more than one member of the Biden Administration will be impeached, it’s if there’s anyone who WON’T be impeached.

Here’s a back-of-the-envelope prediction about all the potential impeachments we should expect in 2023 if Republicans do, in fact, take the House.

President Biden
It’s pretty clear to me that a Republican House will be so full of spite and rage and bloodlust for revenge that it’s very possible they may accidently on purpose impeach Biden for no apparent reason in the early days of 2023. It will be so transparent as to what is going on that House Republicans are going to do severe political damage to themselves. But it won’t matter — that political damage would only matter if we were a functioning democracy. But we’re no longer a functioning democracy, we’re in between autocracy and democracy — in other words, an “anocracy.”

There are at least two reasons why Biden will be impeached. One is, of course, his wastrel son Hunter Biden. The other is the “border crisis.” The big issue is will these be two seperate impeachments so Democrats will not longer have Trump being impeached twice as a talking point, or if these two issues will be fused together into one event.

At the moment, I honestly don’t know. There’s always a chance that MAGA Republicans will impeach Biden THREE times, for two reasons. They both scream at the top of their lungs that Biden is the only president to be impeached three times and at the same time they can, expo facto say it’s no big deal that Trump was impeached twice.

Veep Harris
I have no idea why House Republicans will impeach Harris, but they’ll think of something. Just the idea that they could somehow impeach and convict Biden and Harris in quick succession is enough to give them all a boner and they have no self control so they’re going to do it at some point between 2023 and 2025.

DHS Secretary Mayorkas
As I understand it, there’s already a move afoot by House Republicans to hit the ground running impeaching Mayorkas for his handling of the “border crisis.” So, there’s every reason to believe that he’s going to be impeached at some point between 2023 and 2025.

HHS Secretary Becerra 
This is a bit more speculative, but I could see that once the impeachment counter-revolution gets going that House Republicans will set their sights on Becerra for something connected to “gender affirming” care of minors. That seems like just the type of culture war edge issue that MAGA House Republicans would want to wallow in for a few months to prove a point. I could also see a potential impeachment article surrounding the Biden Administration’s handling of COVID — even though it was Trump who fucked that particular situation up. Who cares about facts when you have lies?

Education Secretary Cardona
This is also rather speculative, but once the monster of impeachment is unleashed, House Republicans may go after Cordona on the nebulous charge of encouraging “critical race theory” in schools — even if this is total bullshit. They just want to be able to hold hearings where they rant about CRT for hours on end. It will juice the base while “owning” the libs.

FBI Director Wray
If this happens, it will be a prime example of how wrapped up in their own bullshit MAGA House Republicans will be once they have power. Wray is ON THEIR SIDE and they will still come after him because something something Deep State.

Attorney General Garland
This is obvious — MAGA Republicans are so blinded by their anger over the Mar-a-Lago raid that they want to impeach Garland for approving it, despite it being totally justified given what Trump did.

There could be a few Federal judges that spark MAGA ire that will be impeached as well.

Taking The Prospect of ‘Speaker Trump’ Seriously

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

You hear a lot of chatter about this or that thing on Twitter a lot of times, so the idea that the “votes aren’t there” for Kevin McCarthy to become Speaker should probably be taken with a grain of salt. As I’ve written before, I think in the end, there might be a bit of a kerfuffle but ultimately McCarthy becomes speaker and proceeds to impeach a lot of people inside the Biden Administration.

But let’s waste some time and really think about the prospect of Trump becoming Speaker of the House.

The first thing to remember is just because a bunch of people fear Trump might do it, doesn’t mean he has the abstract cognitive ability to actually do such a thing. Trump is dumb and simple. His political instincts are extremely simple. They’re a grunt generated by whatever out of the bowels of the Far Right.

So, while yes, it would make a light of nightmarish sense for Trump to swoop in and become Speaker if McCarthy can’t summon the votes at the required time….I really have a lot of doubts he would do it. Or even that his poor peabrain could even comprehend the strategy necessary to pull it off.

Now, let’s get to the issue of if Trump could actually BE Speaker. Apparently, the idea of a non-member being Speaker of the House is one of those things where because the Constitution doesn’t say it can’t happen…it could very well happen. There is no specific exclusion as to someone who isn’t a House member being speaker.

The more ominous interpretation of this situation is when shit like Trump becoming Speaker happens…it’s a death rattle for the traditional norms associated with our Constitutional (Democratic) Republic. Trump fucking with the Constitution by doing something that isn’t expressly forbidden is very much something a far more astute autocrat might attempt.

But Trump, like I said, is a moron with a peabrain so…the idea that Trump could do even such a basic autocratic play is very, very debatable.

So, what if Trump did become Speaker, if only for 100 days as Steve Bannon has suggested. Then what?

Well, it would be a complete and total shitshow, not seen since the worst days of Trumplandia. I could see Trump having one specific purpose for being Speaker — impeaching Biden and Harris. I could further see him — if he somehow could manage the mental energy to think like this — ranting about how Texas and other Red States should leave the Union if the Senate didn’t impeach Biden and Harris so he could become POTUS again early.

Such a scenario is both hysterical, fantastical AND possible. It’s easy to imagine Trump using secession of Red States as just a one-off rhetorical flourish and before you know it Texas has one foot out the Union.

I just don’t see any of this happening. It might be interesting in the House for a few hours as McCarthy struggles to get the 218 votes he needs…but he’ll ultimately get them. God help us all if he doesn’t a Trump manages to become Speaker.

Here are some of the people who might get impeached by the Republican House, no matter who is Speaker.

President Biden
It’s pretty clear to me that a Republican House will be so full of spite and rage and bloodlust for revenge that it’s very possible they may accidently on purpose impeach Biden for no apparent reason in the early days of 2023. It will be so transparent as to what is going on that House Republicans are going to do severe political damage to themselves. But it won’t matter — that political damage would only matter if we were a functioning democracy. But we’re no longer a functioning democracy, we’re in between autocracy and democracy — in other words, an “anocracy.”

There are at least two reasons why Biden will be impeached. One is, of course, his wastrel son Hunter Biden. The other is the “border crisis.” The big issue is will these be two seperate impeachments so Democrats will not longer have Trump being impeached twice as a talking point, or if these two issues will be fused together into one event.

At the moment, I honestly don’t know. There’s always a chance that MAGA Republicans will impeach Biden THREE times, for two reasons. They both scream at the top of their lungs that Biden is the only president to be impeached three times and at the same time they can, expo facto say it’s no big deal that Trump was impeached twice.

Veep Harris
I have no idea why House Republicans will impeach Harris, but they’ll think of something. Just the idea that they could somehow impeach and convict Biden and Harris in quick succession is enough to give them all a boner and they have no self control so they’re going to do it at some point between 2023 and 2025.

DHS Secretary Mayorkas
As I understand it, there’s already a move afoot by House Republicans to hit the ground running impeaching Mayorkas for his handling of the “border crisis.” So, there’s every reason to believe that he’s going to be impeached at some point between 2023 and 2025.

HHS Secretary Becerra 
This is a bit more speculative, but I could see that once the impeachment counter-revolution gets going that House Republicans will set their sights on Becerra for something connected to “gender affirming” care of minors. That seems like just the type of culture war edge issue that MAGA House Republicans would want to wallow in for a few months to prove a point. I could also see a potential impeachment article surrounding the Biden Administration’s handling of COVID — even though it was Trump who fucked that particular situation up. Who cares about facts when you have lies?

Education Secretary Cardona
This is also rather speculative, but once the monster of impeachment is unleashed, House Republicans may go after Cordona on the nebulous charge of encouraging “critical race theory” in schools — even if this is total bullshit. They just want to be able to hold hearings where they rant about CRT for hours on end. It will juice the base while “owning” the libs.

FBI Director Wray
If this happens, it will be a prime example of how wrapped up in their own bullshit MAGA House Republicans will be once they have power. Wray is ON THEIR SIDE and they will still come after him because something something Deep State.

Attorney General Garland
This is obvious — MAGA Republicans are so blinded by their anger over the Mar-a-Lago raid that they want to impeach Garland for approving it, despite it being totally justified given what Trump did.

There could be a few Federal judges that spark MAGA ire that will be impeached as well.

Speaker Trump? Allegedly, At The Moment, Kevin McCarthy Lacks The Votes to be Speaker of The House

by Shelt Garner
@sheltganer

But for what a fucking lazy idiot Trump is, I would believe that Trump is going to swoop in and become Speaker of the House when Kevin McCarthy fails to get enough votes to get the gig.

Even I, someone who loves to speculate widely, don’t think Trump is going to be Speaker — for a number of reasons. The chief reason is while for normal people with normal abstract cognitive abilities, Trump being Speaker makes a huge amount of sense…this is Trump we’re dealing with.

Trump is so fucking lazy and stupid that I just don’t think he could wrap his little peabrain around the idea of all the damage he could do as Speaker. He has his mind and heart set on being POTUS again and that’s that. I think maybe if Ivanka were to explain how delightful the revenge of taking the Speaker’s gavel away from Nancy Pelosi would be like…maybe he might think about it?

What I think is going to happen is there will be a little bit of a kerfuffle when the vote for Speaker happens, then McCarthy gets it…and then we spend two years with the Senate standing as jury when all these people from the Biden Administration are impeached — some of them more than once!

President Biden
It’s pretty clear to me that a Republican House will be so full of spite and rage and bloodlust for revenge that it’s very possible they may accidently on purpose impeach Biden for no apparent reason in the early days of 2023. It will be so transparent as to what is going on that House Republicans are going to do severe political damage to themselves. But it won’t matter — that political damage would only matter if we were a functioning democracy. But we’re no longer a functioning democracy, we’re in between autocracy and democracy — in other words, an “anocracy.”

There are at least two reasons why Biden will be impeached. One is, of course, his wastrel son Hunter Biden. The other is the “border crisis.” The big issue is will these be two seperate impeachments so Democrats will not longer have Trump being impeached twice as a talking point, or if these two issues will be fused together into one event.

At the moment, I honestly don’t know. There’s always a chance that MAGA Republicans will impeach Biden THREE times, for two reasons. They both scream at the top of their lungs that Biden is the only president to be impeached three times and at the same time they can, expo facto say it’s no big deal that Trump was impeached twice.

Veep Harris
I have no idea why House Republicans will impeach Harris, but they’ll think of something. Just the idea that they could somehow impeach and convict Biden and Harris in quick succession is enough to give them all a boner and they have no self control so they’re going to do it at some point between 2023 and 2025.

DHS Secretary Mayorkas
As I understand it, there’s already a move afoot by House Republicans to hit the ground running impeaching Mayorkas for his handling of the “border crisis.” So, there’s every reason to believe that he’s going to be impeached at some point between 2023 and 2025.

HHS Secretary Becerra 
This is a bit more speculative, but I could see that once the impeachment counter-revolution gets going that House Republicans will set their sights on Becerra for something connected to “gender affirming” care of minors. That seems like just the type of culture war edge issue that MAGA House Republicans would want to wallow in for a few months to prove a point. I could also see a potential impeachment article surrounding the Biden Administration’s handling of COVID — even though it was Trump who fucked that particular situation up. Who cares about facts when you have lies?

Education Secretary Cardona
This is also rather speculative, but once the monster of impeachment is unleashed, House Republicans may go after Cordona on the nebulous charge of encouraging “critical race theory” in schools — even if this is total bullshit. They just want to be able to hold hearings where they rant about CRT for hours on end. It will juice the base while “owning” the libs.

FBI Director Wray
If this happens, it will be a prime example of how wrapped up in their own bullshit MAGA House Republicans will be once they have power. Wray is ON THEIR SIDE and they will still come after him because something something Deep State.

Attorney General Garland
This is obvious — MAGA Republicans are so blinded by their anger over the Mar-a-Lago raid that they want to impeach Garland for approving it, despite it being totally justified given what Trump did.

There could be a few Federal judges that spark MAGA ire that will be impeached as well.

Trump’s The Hundred Days (as Speaker?)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Steve Bannon has suggested that Trump just become Speaker of the House, but only for 100 days. What would that be like? It would, of course, be a massive, catastrophic clusterfuck.

My fear if it happened is that Trump would end up dangling Red States secession over the heads of reluctant Senators when they had to sit as jurists in the inevitable impeachments of Biden and Harris. And that doesn’t even begin to address all the insane things that might happen because the MAGA faithful would want to “speed up the process” of getting Trump back into the White House.

In other words, there would be a lot of coup attempts — even if the whole disaster only lasted for 100 days.

But there is one key thing to remember about the Trump-as-Speaker scenario: on paper it makes way too much sense. I mean, what is all the leadership battles happening in the House about but who can properly suck up to Trump? Why not cut out the middle man and let Trump be Trump.

What more hateful, delicious revenge for Trump than for him to take the Speaker’s gavel directly from Nancy Pelosi herself? I’m very conflicted about this possibility because on one hand it might destroy MAGA once and for all, but on the other we would risk Trump getting REALLY LUCKY and becoming POTUS in 2023 – 2024 instead of 2025.

Anyway, I get the sense that, thankfully, we’re not going to have to worry about a Speaker Trump, even though we’re going to head a growing chorus of insane fucking MAGA cocksuckers who think it would be a GREAT idea. Fuck MAGA.

Logically, Trump Should Be The Next Speaker of The House

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A Ploy to Convict Biden / Harris in the Senate
In this scenario, it’s 2023 and Republicans have gone nuts. They have impeached both Biden and Harris out of spite. Now, for Trump to actively be trying to destroy the country, he would, of course, need to have some personal investment in it. So, this one only really works if he is the Speaker of the House and he thinks he can become POTUS again early. So, in a bid to scare the living shit out of the Senate, he, as Speaker, begins to demand Red States leave the Union in order to get what he wants. He says this just as a rhetorical flourish, but MAGA legislatures take him seriously and states, probably beginning with Texas, begin to convene Secessionist Conventions. And away we go.

I wrote that scenario up some time ago and as Republicans begin a massive power struggle over who will be Speaker of the House, it begins to become more and more relevant. Any back of the envelope study of the current Republican struggle over who will be Speaker of the House tells you that, all things being equal, Trump should be the next Republican Speak of the House.

All the sturm and drang going on about the Speakership is battle over who will be Trump’s proxy in the House. So, the logical way to end that struggle is to cut the Gordian Knot by simply naming Trump to the Speakership. Trump is the one person that the entire House caucus could unite behind.

What’s more, it would also unite the Republican House caucus because it would put Trump in line of succession. House Republicans are going to impeach Biden and Harris anyway, they should be at least be intellectually honest for once and make it clear what they’re up to — a coup.

But it is very easy to imagine Trump becoming Speaker, impeaching both Biden and Harris and then inciting violence on the part of the MAGA New Right to such an extent that Senate Democrats feel forced to convict them “for the sake of the nation.”

Then Trump comes back early and we’re right back where we started from in January 2021, with Trump demanding to stay in office forever because of “lost time.”

But — and this a huge but — Trump is not a Great Man. He’s just very lucky, very lazy idiot. As such, I would be shocked if he was able to pull himself away from running again in 2024 to be Speaker for, say, 100 days as Steve Bannon has suggested.

Trump just doesn’t have the abstract mental capacity necessary to be Speaker. But there’s another big unknown — what happens if a big chunk of the Republican House caucus drafts Trump to be Speaker? Would that be enough to entice him to do it for the specific purpose of leading the impeachment of both Biden and Harris?

At this point, this seems like just another daydream. But….it is an interesting scenario.