Month: August 2020

A Tim Pool Rebuttal


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about former Vice Magazine writer Tim Pool is his arguments for Trump are actually cogent enough to warrant a rebuttal. Pool is interesting to me because he seems like just the type of guy who would REALLY be into Joe Rogan. Anyway, he’s apparently all-in with MAGA at this point and, from his Twitter threat explaining why he’s voting for Trump rather fascist-friendly, if not fascist altogether. Let’s go through the thread a pick it apart.

He opens the thread explaining why Kyle Rittenhouse’s double murder explains why he’s voting for Trump. Now, for me, that statement in itself sets off some warning lights because it establishes he’s going to see what Rittenhouse did through the lens of partisan politics. He also makes a point of claiming the press “lied” about Trump doing something. I don’t know enough about what exactly he’s talking about, but while maybe they weren’t *literally* secret police, a lot of the violence that’s happening across the country is being sparked by the reaction of Trump’s goons more than the often otherwise peaceful protesters.

Ok, this is an extremely charitable explanation of what happened. Pool makes it seem as though some innocent waif decided to swoop in and save the day. He ignores that there are pictures of the 17 year old holding an AR-15. He’s bending over backwards to frame the situation in such a way that your average Joe Rogan audience member will nod their head in agreement. The following tweet is probably his strongest argument in the thread:

I will give him this point. Biden should definitely be more proactive condemning the violence taking place. And, yet, to me, for this to be the single issue that he is so concerned about when 180,000 people have died because of Trump’s criminally incompetent handling of the COVI19 pandemic as well as a shit ton of other criminal activity on House Trump’s part is a little bit of a tell — he was never going to vote for Biden and Biden not doing what he felt was needed was simply confirmation of his existing decision.

Here is where we get to the core of his argument and the whole thing falls apart.

To call Biden “a coward” who “hides in his basement” is straight MAGA agitprop. And given how well the whole “law and order” thing is probably polling with House Trump’s campaign right now, it makes me think Pool is no longer a journalist in an real sense. He’s completely in the pocket of House Trump and, just like Joe Rogan, he uses a form of masculine earnestness to deflect any reasonable effort to talk to him.

I compare it to someone in 1933 saying Herr Hitler is going to make the streets of the Free City of Danzig safe again. He wants us to focus on this sole issue, totally ignoring the astonishing existential threat that House Trump presents to the Republic on a strategic level. He wants to do this because as long as we focus on this specific issue, we aren’t talking about the flaming pile of horseshit that is the Trump Administration.

As such, I can only conclude that Pool is a fascist. That the Right is embracing Kyle Rittenhouse as some sort of John Brown of MAGA tells you everything you need to know about the state of American democracy. The logic is there to support wide-spread political violence against anyone who gets in the way of MAGA or Qanon.

Now, what’s even worse is the center Right and the center Left have grown so detached from each other and what they can agree is “real” that it’s nearly impossible for there to be any discussion at all. The Right has cross the Rubicon and now are full throated fascists, even though they will never admit it because they know it would hurt them politically — for the time being.

As such, this fall is going to be very dark.

I continue to believe that House Trump is never, EVER leaving power for any reason, even if it means inciting a civil war. Given Pool’s reasoning for voting for Trump, I honestly can’t imagine any situation where he wouldn’t be right there with MAGA and Qanon, cheering on the political violence that apparently he — and much of the American Right — are now cool with.

Good luck, guys.

The Five Existential American Trends That Cause MAGA


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m not saying anything that’s not already been said, but I just felt like articulating the obvious in my own words. There are five major historical trends that have led to the rise of MAGA.

  1. White working class men can’t get laid.
  2. Baby Boomers are old.
  3. The secularization of metropolitan areas.
  4. The Rise of the Plutocracy
  5. The Browning of America.

I once saw a dire warning about what was going to happen to China and India because of a lack of women. It was not pretty — men not being able to get laid is often the source of significant societal upheaval. It’s maybe exactly the same, but in the last 20 or so years, it’s gotten a whole lot more difficult for white working class men to get laid.

This has happen for a number of reasons.

One is the obvious — the industrial base of the United States has vanished. It’s all in Asia now. So, if you’re a young man without a college degree living in rural America, you’re fucked. It’s really difficult for you to find a job that pays enough for you to get a wife and have a family. This leads to extreme “economic anxiety.”

But, really, that one macro metric out of whack is the source of a lot of the worst aspects of MAGA — the racism and misogyny. The racism comes from white blue collar men angry about the lack of jobs. The misogyny is the same thing.

For both the racism and the misogyny there are other factors that are influencing that metric. But let’s look at the misogyny first. Without good jobs, it’s more difficult for working class families to live the American dream. Since, in general, girls are better students than boys when they’re young, on a statistical level I would suggest that the number of available women for young white working class men is reduced enough for them to notice — an educated woman probably has a better shot at having a higher paying service industry job.

As mentioned, another aspect of MAGA is Baby Boomers are old. This is a subtle, but powerful, macro trend that really helps the whole cause because, well, old people vote. Throw in the other macro trends associated with MAGA and you got your self an existential threat to a liberal democracy.

As major metropolitan areas grow more secularized, they are more open to more progressive social constructs which freak out religious people living in rural areas. This hands autocrats like Trump a convenient bludgeon to use against major population areas when they need to get elected in the first place.

Another major macro issue America faces is economic disparity. Since plutocrats successfully brainwashed poor people to be against a progressive income tax, well, lulz, we’re all fucked. The plutocrats provide the funds necessary to win elections for autocrats like Trump.

Lastly, there is the Browning of America.

This is something that touches all the other macro trends in one way or another. As white people become a minority, this leads them to feel a huge amount angst on an existential level. It jiggles their collective self-perception and sense of self-worth.

By definition, all these existential issues are intractable. We simply don’t have the leadership or the political will to do anything about them. Or, put another way, the one that we can do something about — the Browning of America — unites all the other issues into one single avatar — a fucking racist like Donald Trump.

As such, the damage is done.

All you need to throw into the mix is something like Qanon and the American Killing Fields aren’t far behind.

A Biden Administration Would Not Be A Panacea


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I like to run casual scenarios in my mind and of all the scenarios about America’s political future, not one of them ends with Biden being legally sworn in as president in 2021.

It just is never going to happen.

If Trump has to force the issue and start a civil war of some sort, he’ll do it and he’ll win for no other reason than MAGA are bunch of bloodthirsty assholes already, they just need a little prompting.

But, just like sometimes you feel like imagining what might happen if you won the lottery, let’s think about the implications of a Biden Administration.

The biggest thing that comes to mind is we’re all going to deal with the possibly of a former president being indicted. The divisions in the United States won’t go anywhere if Biden’s president and so, as such, in all likelihood Trump will get away scot free even if he is somehow miraculously forced out of off.

Even I am leery of setting the precedent of criminally charging a former president, even if it’s Trump who richly deserves it. Once you go down that road, then the first thing that will happen once MAGA-Qanon are in power again is they’re going to go after Hillary Clinton or whomever.

The case could be made that Trump is the exception that proves the rule. The problem with that, of course, is that’s not how MAGA-Qanon would see it. They would be so enraged that The Dear Leader was on trial that there would likely be significant political violence associated with it AND they would go after any major center-Left political leader once they got the chance.

Another issue in the Biden Era would be what the Republican Party would become. I see three major issues.

  1. Qanon will become gospel to MAGA.
  2. Trump will be the new Ronald Reagan
  3. The “Lost Cause.”

Put these together and, really, we might get a few months of “normal” before the Republican Party would come back with a vengeance. One reason I have no hope for the First Republic is the Republican Party, by definition, hates democracy. And if you have one of your two major parties actively doing everything in its power to destroy the very democracy it’s suppose to be participating in, then, well, lulz, your fucked.

Another thing we have to remember is, a lot of major Clinton Era figures continue to be established public figures. So it goes without saying that we have a solid 20, 30, 40 years of Trump Era people who will continue to linger in the public eye in various ways.

Just because Biden is president, that’s not going to stop at least three of Trump children from running for president in some capacity. What’s more, the moment the Republicans regain the House, they’re going to start plotting the impeachment of Biden. As such, given how they would, on an existential level, see Biden – Harris as illegitimate, there’s a chance they would impeach both of them and name Trump I as Speaker of the House in hopes that he would become president again that way.

That’s how insane the Republican Party is now. They are so bonkers and so craven, that they will stop at nothing to put House Trump back on the throne.

This all boils down to the existential problems with the United States. The United States is two nations that are zooming as far as possible away from each other in every regard.

So, either there’s a civil war sooner, or a civil war later.

It’s all very tragic. I hope I’m wrong.

Only time will tell.

House Trump Is Never Leaving Power Unless It Loses A Civil War



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The moment Trump was acquitted by the Senate, the First Republic was no more. These few remaining months of 2020 are simply a twilight era before House Trump’s final consolidation of power.

As it stands, the only way House Trump is EVER leaving power for any reason is if it loses a civil war. As such, all the Twitter liberals who get all excited about this or that speech or meme that “destroys” some member of the Ruling Family really are missing the point.

The United States is no longer a liberal democracy. We’re an autocratic managed democracy like Russia and House Trump will continue to re-imagine the country into something more akin to Trumplandia for some 20 to 40 years to come. This boils down to cold, hard demographics. The hate, rage, racism and misogyny of angry old Baby Boomers will power House Trump until they finally all drop dead in about 20 years. As there usually is some lag between demographics and politics (especially when autocrats are involved) one could easily imagine another sold 20 years after that before, I don’t know, Zoomers rally around AOC and found a Second Republic.

The point of all of this is — it’s easy to get mad on social media. But how many people, really, are willing to risk things important to them in the real world when ICE or Little Green Men come knocking on their doors? And once the press is finally shipped off to Trumplandia death camps because Qanon demanded it, then, well, lulz, how is anyone even going to know what happened?

Let me put it another way — as an autocrat, all Trump cares about is power. So he could lose by 5 million votes and as long as he wins the Electoral College, he will be quite content. And that’s the Best Case Scenario for people like me. The Worst Case Scenario is Trump has to force the issue and there’s a civil war. In that case, things are likely to grow far more radical and dark that we could possibly imagine.

If there is a civil war, Blue State governments are likely to be abolished favor of military districts. ICE camps will become death camps, full of all the people Qanon want dead.

America simply is too divided and apathetic to do the things necessary to stop this nightmare from becoming a reality. The darkness is here. As I keep saying, if I was writing for VOX, I’d come up with some practical way for you to stop this from happening, or whatever.

But I’m not smart enough.

All I know is, we’re fucked. Totally and completely fucked. MAGA and Qanon are rapidly fusing and Trump will destroy any norm, break any law, necessary to maintain power.

Good luck.

Don’t Sleep On Eric Trump’s Coming Political Career


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My political predictions are often very, very wrong. But given how Eric Trump’s profile is beginning to grow more conspicuous around the White House, it seems as though he has political aspirations.

Since Trump is going to brazenly steal the 2020 election, we’re going to have to get used to seeing a whole lot more of the entire House Trump royal family. It makes a lot of sense that now that the first republic is over that we would lurch into a semi-monarchical era in our history. Really, it’s just a matter of degree.

So, as such, it’s very possible it might be Eric vs. Don Jr. in the coming years, not Ivanka vs. Don Jr. Given that Eric has taken the brunt of the personal attacks in the media, it would make a lot of sense for him to want to prove the same point his dad did after the WHCD just before Trump ran for office. It definitely will be interesting to see how far he gets.

The longer Trump stays in power, the more comfortable he becomes with doing whatever the fuck he wants. He knows he has broken the back of the Constitution and, really, it’s just a matter of purging the media at this point. Once that’s out of the way, America’s once robust civil society will implode in a rather dramatic fashion.

We’ll be nothing more than Russia.

I spare me any delusional claims that this or that thing will stop Trump. America is just too divided and apathetic to do anything about House Trump at this point. Qanon will completely consume the Republican Party very, very soon and, as such, the ICE camps will become Trumplandia death camps in a matter of months at this point.

Something pretty dramatic will have to change for this not to happen. A general strike. Twitter liberals having to risk their careers at major media companies. People with families having to risk that, too.

I just don’t see that happening.

I hope I’m wrong. I really do.

The Historical & Political Implications of the Blood Libel That Is Qanon


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more I think about it, the more it makes sense that the natural inclination for MAGA to go full Nazi that is abated by Ivanka Trump being Jewish may be circumvented by Qanon.

Both Nazism and Qanon are based on a Blood Libel. (I’m not going to go into what those libels entail. You can look it up yourself.) In a sense, Nazism is a subset of Qanon because the many — but not all — of the targets of Qanon are Jewish. So, it would make a lot of sense that as the Qanon blackhole consumes the Republican Party, that many would-be American Nazis will simply hide behind Qanon to achieve their goals.

The reason this is extremely troubling is House Trump is going to throw everything it has at the 2020 election and get away with it. The press is going to lulz the brazen theft of the 2020 election and will be completely unprepared for when House Trump comes after THEM.

Once the media is purged at some point in Trump’s stolen second term, things will begin to move at a rapid clip. The press, for all its faults, has in its own tepid way, been one of the few institutions that has been a little bit of a check on the worst inclinations of House Trump.

With the press out of the way, there will be absolutely nothing to stop House Trump from using the existing ICE infrastructure to make their Qanon nightmares come true. A huge swath of people will be “implicated” as suspects in the batshit insane Qanon worldview and soon enough ICE camps will become Trumplandia death camps.

I know — I know — that right now that sounds hysterical. But given how Qanon gives the most extreme (and dumb) elements of MAGA an outlet for their rage against liberals (many of who are Jewish) it make sense that this is our future.

And, remember, once we have our own Qanon Night of the Long Knives and Qanon themed Kristallnacht, history will definitely appear to repeat itself. American civil society will implode and the darkness that has already fallen across the land will get pitch black.

If I was writing for VOX, I would give you some hope that this won’t happen. Or give you some practical guide to how you can survive this coming hellscape. But, sadly, I’m not smart enough.

I honestly don’t know.

Who is going to save us? The EU? Canada?

It seems to me that the only thing that might save us is the dead hand of demographics. There’s going to come a point when the base of Qanon-MAGA will drop dead en masse and that’s the point when House Trump’s grip on the country will finally grow weak enough that a Second Republic might, just might arise from the ashes of Trumplandia.

But right now, that seems rather delusional.

This is it. This is the end.

The Quiet Before The Storm?



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While there may be a lot of noise (and lying) going on right now because of the RNC, in real terms, things are pretty dull. Usually, at some point in August, something so spectacular happens that The Beautiful People have to rush home from their vacations to deal with it.

But, to date, that’s not happened.

Not that there aren’t any number of things that flair up before the end of the month, but it definitely seems this month is, for once, going to be something of a dud.

I guess the case could be made that August 2001 was pretty dull (I think?) and the Big News was the 9/11 attacks in September.

Or, maybe this fall and winter are going to be such a massive clusterfuck that this is the quiet before the storm. Maybe. I still think in the end the post-election day season is going to be quite dull. Trump is going to win far earlier than we might otherwise think and we’ll continue our lurch towards an autocratic managed democracy.

The issue is, really, that the macro trends all indicate that The First Republic is no more. The bad guys have won. Now we have to think about how long we suffer under the jackboot of House Trump tyranny before the Second Republic is founded.

Just off the top of my head, I would suggest about 40 years (at a least.)

Good luck.

Political Darkness Is Here



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate to sound so dystopian, but we need to be honest with ourselves. Our fate is staring us straight in the face and either you acknowledge it or you don’t. Trump is throwing everything he can at the 2020 election and we’re simply not prepared for how brazen his theft will be.

And that doesn’t even begin to address the underhanded ways he will use to steal the election, like having the Russians directly hack into our election systems.

So, political darkness has fallen.

Really, the only issue is how difficult is it, ultimately, for Trump to steal the election. I’m beginning to think Trump is going to cruise into a similar situation like 2016, even before he ratfucks the postal service and has Barr, through the bullshit Durham investigation produce a Second Comey Letter effect so he wins.

Once Trump effectively has his political sins wiped clean by “winning” the 2020 election, the autocratic trend we’ve already seen will only accelerate. I just don’t see there being any more elections in the United States after 2020. For various reasons, ranging from blood thirsty Qanon moves to a Constitutional Convention, the 2020 Election is it. It’s the last one we’ll have.

Of course, there is a .00000000000000000000000000000001% chance that somehow, someway all the ratfucking that House Trump uses doesn’t work. But, just like with impeachment, it’s comical at this point to entertain such an idea.

Really, the only possible way Trump doesn’t stay in power for the rest of his life is he loses some sort of civil war. And I just don’t see that happening. House Trump is going to rapidly consolidate power to the point that the current ICE camps become Trumplandia death camps.

Nothing is going to save us. We’re not even going to save ourselves.

I only keep writing stuff like this to acclimate myself to the new reality of living in Trumplandia.

I wish something would happen to give me hope. Sadly, every day only proves my worst fears are already a reality. The First Republic is no more.

The Qanon Risk Is Real & Severe


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue with Qanon is it’s a blood libel. It’s a quick and easy way to dehumanize the Usual Suspects of MAGA rage such that, lulz, they can be murdered in cold blood by House Trump’s willing executioners.

Remember, too often these days, we, without even thinking about it, work within the conventions of the America we once knew. Now that — since Trump’s acquittal by the Senate — we’re nothing more than Trumplandia, such notions are rather foolish.

So, even though Trump himself is a criminally incompetent moron, after he steals his second term, Qanon will become the very DNA of the Republican Party. Once the batshit insane concepts associated with Qanon are the conventional wisdom of the Republican Establishment, it doesn’t take a lot of work to imagine a rather violent shift in House Trump’s relations to the target of Qanon — (wealthy) (celebrity) liberals.

Now, I can’t predict the future. And I don’t have any “reveled truth.” But I am pretty good a running scenarios and all systems are go for not only Trump stealing the 2020 election in a rather brazen fashion, but for the horrific dreams of Qanon to become a reality far sooner than any of us dare think.

And, if you really wanted to get dark, you could even go so far as to say Qanon is a ready work around for the more Nazi-like elements of MAGA. In a way, Nazism is a subset of Qanon because many — but not all — of the targets of Qanon are Jewish. It is fairly easy to imagine a situation where exactly the same things that happen in Nazi Germany happen in Trumplandia only under the guise of Qanon.

The key issue is — the absolute bloodthirsty nature of MAGA is staring us straight in the face and we’re luzling it. We’re completely delusional. By every metric, MAGA has already lain the groundwork for American Killing Fields, or whatever they endup being called.

I mean, the ICE camps already exist. It’s a short jaunt from ICE camps to Trumplandia death camps for the objects of Qanon.

The thing we have to remember is no one is going to save us. I don’t even know if we can save ourselves.

And, again, I can’t predict the future. I may be wrong. I hope I’m wrong.

But we need to start taking the real world implications of Qanon seriously.

The Crown Prince Don Jr. Conundrum


by Shelt Garenr
@sheltgarner

It is well known that Crown Prince Don Jr. is a major goober. Even his father, allegedly, has suggested the Crown Prince has the worst judgement of the family and that’s saying something.

But having said all that, he presents something of a conundrum for House Trump.

Macro trends would suggest that House Trump has formally been established. They are now a ruling family. And only American self-perception prevents House Trump from going full imperial on us. Though, to be honest, Trump’s control over the Republican Party is absolute he could, in fact, declare himself Emperor Trump I and the GOP would agree to the idea with great gusto.

Anyway, the point is, what to do with Don Jr.

On one hand, there are some pretty vicious fascists — like Mike Pompeo and Tom Cotton — waiting in the wings who are more than willing to cut a bitch to become president. And, yet, the devotion of the Republican Party to House Trump is now such a Singularity of Fascism that it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the Crown Prince won’t endup as either president or veep in 2024. (Though, we have to note at this point that Trump himself will probably demand a Constitutional Convention in his stolen second term and turn himself into something of a cross between Caligula, King George III and Brezhnev for the remainder of his days. )

The last time I checked, Trump isn’t actually God, so he is at some point down the road not going to be physically able to serve as president. Though I wouldn’t put it past the Republicans to make Trump “eternal president” as the North Koreans have done in a similar situation.

So, the point is, will the Crown Prince become president by default, or will there been some sort of existential power struggle whereby he becomes the kingmaker and simply gets some sort of cushy job running one of the military districts that will replace Blue States soon enough.

My guess is the Crown Prince will become president and because he’s such a fucking doofus, that the actual power behind the throne will be someone like Cotton or Pompeo.

But, long term, I think we’re in for a succession of Trumps as president. My guess just about when Barron Trump is up to take his turn, AOC will be release from prison like Nelson Mandela and a Second Republic will (mabye) be established.