Month: May 2021

The Secession Crisis of 2021


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me get one thing out of the way: I hate violence and am in no way advocating civil war. (Never thought I’d write that.) But I’m aware that I’m beginning to drift towards pretty much saying, “Welp, it’s going to be autocracy or civil war, so…” But that’s very much an abstract, rhetorical stance. I would much rather we just punt this problem down the road an have neither autocracy nor civil war.

I’m just worried we won’t have that choice anymore.

To put things in historical perspective, this was 1861 not 2021 and you were a Northerner given the stark choice of political subservience to Slave Power for the foreseeable future or throwing your lot with breaking an egg to end the division in the country once and for all, you would at least have pause for thought about which option.

One last thing before I continue — even if Cyber Ninjas manage to pull a Trump victory out of their butts in Arizona, there’s every reason to believe that it will only result in a collective shrug. Trump will run around, screaming at the top of his lungs that he’s really POTUS…but it will remain nothing more than a talking point of MAGA cocksuckers who will add it to yet another way to “own the libs” when fighting with Twitter liberals. So, for what I’m about to sketch out to happen, Trump would have to lean into his cult of personality. And, to date, Trump has proven himself to be so fucking lazy that he didn’t even use basic autocratic techniques in 2020 to steal an easily stealable election.

Having said all that, let’s begin.

As I understand it, the clusterfuck shame recount of Arizona votes by Cyber Ninjas is going to wrap up in mind-May sometime. So, for the sake of argument, let’s say the “prove” that Trump “won” the state. What happens? Well, it’s difficult to know for sure. There are plenty of concrete things Trump COULD DO, but he’s soooooo fucking lazy and stupid that his natural inclination will be just to run around the country screaming at the top of his lungs that he’s really POTUS.

It could go either way.

It’s very easy to imagine that there will be rumblings of “nullifying” the Biden Administration on a state level in states like Oklahoma, Montana, Iowa, Arizona, Utah, North and South Dakota and Kansas. But it could be just rumbling. The idea of secession may just remain mental masturbation for far Right Wing talk radio and that’s it. In real terms, talk of “nullification” or “secession” will be just that — talk.

And, really, the only way I could see Trump even becoming all that much of an issue is there is a dynamic similar to January 6th that takes place, only on a national scale: Trump’s wink wink nudge nudge behavior about him really being POTUS is taken seriously and literally by the state legislatures of the states I mentioned and they first say they’re not going to recognize Biden as POTUS then before you know it, they’re calling state conventions to leave the Union unilaterally. If it happened, it would likely happen so fast that any secession crisis would be in full swing by July 4th.

Those are the easy states because they’re pretty much just white people and their populations are small enough that if they collective decided to YOLO it that they could get a lot farther than you might think.

The problem for all involved, of course, is once the Secession Crisis really gained momentum, Trump could then do what he always does and just be an avatar. He would get so fucking excited that he might be POTUS again that he would say and do things with total disregard for the consequences.

It would be when bigger states like Michigan, Indiana and Ohio started to want to leave the Union that big, big problems begin. And, of course, there would be the problem of Portland being potentially attacked by the rest of Oregon. Once we got this far, then you have the issue of the South.

There’s just no way to imagine a situation where African Americans in the South would just lulz any attempt at secession on the part of the old CSA. This whole thing would be a setup for a race war of historic proportions.

At this point, some cold hard facts would begin to sink in Trumplandia. One, the economies of their most secure states are very small as are their populations. Their big states would be extremely unstable because of African Americans probably being in open revolt. And, really, if there was a Second Civil War, there would be no assurances that things would ever be put back together again.

The United States could be balkanized into rump USA and Trumplandia and that would be that. A lot would depend on if California decided to stay and fight or if it took the broader secession crisis to leave as well. I have no idea what would happen.

Anyway, that’s what I got right now. I generally believe this dystopian nightmare, if is to happen, will happen in the 2024-2025 timeframe because of MAGA Congress nullifying Biden’s re-election. But, who knows, maybe Trump will get his wish to destroying the United States sooner than I expected.

Hopefully, it’s all going to be a big dud.

How American Democracy Dies


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Right now, it’s been established that the only way a Democrat President can successfully name someone to SCOTUS is if Democrats control the Senate. What Republicans want next is establish that the only way a Democrat ever becomes president in the first place is if Democrats control Congress.

In 2024-2025, there is a serious chance that Republicans will make an all out push to make end American democracy once and for all by nullifying a Biden re-election via their control of Congress. And that, my friend, is going to be the moment of truth.

That is when the stark choice I’ve constantly been talking about will occur: autocracy or civil war.

Center-left people in the United States, because of Bush V. Gore, have been conditioned to shut up and accept defeat via a quirk in the system that is upheld by the courts. It is very, very easy to imagine a situation where there will be something of a closed loop when it comes to POTUS.

Because of voter suppression and gerrymandering, Congress will always be controlled by Republicans. In turn, it will become conventional wisdom that we just have to accept that Republicans will nullify any Democrat win and, lulz, sucks to be you. Then we just drift into a very autocratic future where MAGA gets to enact its vision of an America that is identical to Putin’s Russia.

There will be a lot of demonstrations and lots of chatter about how “weak” this or that Republican Administration is, but in the end 30 years from now we will have had a succession of MAGA Republicans who are more and more successful at maintaining power. Throw in a MAGA push to get a Constitutional Convention and there will become a point where we have an identical situation to modern Russia — a huge swath of the population will grow up to know no one but a President Pompeo or President Hawley.

And then gradually it just becomes accepted that ICE is our FSB and if you oppose MAGA you get pushed out a window or thrown into a weaponized ICE Camp. Cruelty will be the point for generations to come.

But.

And this is where we learn how “exceptional” America really is. Is the macro lunge towards autocracy simply the normal progression of our democracy or are things going to be more like the 1860s when we have a massive crisis and then pretty shocking renewal of our American Covenant? Trumplandia will be at its weakest during its birthing process.

It’s at least possible that MAGA Republicans will bungle the transition from democracy to autocracy and there will be a civil war. And, as such, given the strength of Blue States when it comes to their populations, political unity and economies, that instead of Trumplandia, we will have a very blood, very turbulent few years and come out the other side with our democracy redefined and stronger than ever.

The only reason why I frame things this way is to make it clear: there will be no middle ground. Everyone will have to, on an existential level, make a decision and pick a side. No matter if we become an autocratic managed democracy like Russia or if we have a civil war. The time for punting problems down the road has come to an end. We are no longer in normal times.

America is tearing itself apart and MAGA demands are going more radical. And, in a very weird way, one could say that their greatest strength going into whatever clusterfuck we stumble into is also their greatest weakness: Donald Trump.

Trump is — and always has been — nothing more than an avatar. And, as such, it’s easy to imagine he being the specific reason why what could otherwise be a peaceful transition into an autocracy might be bungled pretty severely by MAGA and they blow their opportunity to be a permeant ruling minority.

I have no easy answers for you. I can’t give you a Vox corporate liberal explanation as to what to do to keep your family safe when all this happens. Good luck. You’ll need it.

Now Working On The Second Act of The First Draft Of The Novel


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I got my first glowing review from an alpha reader recently. When I got it I almost cried tears of joy — for once, what I thought should happen when I showed my writing to someone, happened.

But I have a huge amount of work to do. The more I work on these two novels, the more I realize how hard it is to overcome to headwinds of the expectations of people who don’t know me who might read the novel cold. (Which would be an apt description of a potential literary agent.)

Anyway, I’m just about to plunge into the first drafts second act now. I may continue this little pause I’m in for a few more days so I can turn my attention more to reading than writing. Yet I will definitely be writing full time again by, say, about this upcoming Sunday afternoon.

The general story is finally beginning to take shape and I have a pretty good grasp on structure as well. One thing I’m a little bit worried about is there is an abundance of plot. Some of that concern may come from whenever I talk to someone at length about these two novels, I talk about plot. Character is a bit more abstract at times and, as such, more difficult to talk about when you’re talking about “what the novel’s about.”

I have a lot — a lot — of reading I need to do to breath live into these characters. Too many of my characters continue to be just “moods” or exist because they need to exist. Another issue is my Hero continues to be a little bit too much like me. I need to read some to at least attempt to make him a bit more conservative than I am.

But it’s a struggle. And, yet, that’s kind of the point — it’s not easy to make your hero Not You so it’s work.

I still want to at least attempt to go the traditional publishing route, even though it’s clear that a lot of people think I’m just not good enough to be able to pass such a high bar. It’s kind of annoying that everyone thinks I suck, that I don’t have it in me to for once, meet a metric or pass a test.

The whole point of this journey was to have some overarching creative project to hold my attention, so I’m going to see it to the end. If, in the end, I can’t get past the gatekeepers, then I will, in fact, just self-publish in some way. But I haven’t gotten to that point yet.

Trump Is Politically Above The Law Now Because of Barr’s Lies


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things are dark, guys. And going to get a lot darker.

There’s a lot of talk about how we’re learning more about how exactly Bill Barr saved Trump’s sorry ass when he “mislead” Congress over Trump’s obstruction of justice in regards to the TrumpRussia scandal.

But it’s too late on a political level. Not only do the two sides now have an established orthodoxy about what happened, even if you were able to pin down your typical MAGA person that Trump did, in fact, obstruct justice they would simply wave their hands and say it’s “moot now,” “it’s time to move on” or mumbled something about “orange man bad.”

The crux of the issue is the Mueller Report was the last gasp of the Watergate era narrative of how a major presidential scandal was supposed to play out. It was our one shot to destroy Trump politically and we totally blew it. Trump is now completely above the law on a political basis.

How Trump’s crimes are framed has changed. Now that’s been proven that Trump’s cult of personality is so absolute that he can incite an armed insurrection and STILL not have any accountability, then, well, lulz.

The thing is, we have to stop talking about how the Republican Party is in its “death throws.” The exact opposite is true — it’s growing stronger and more hateful by the moment. The United States is far more unstable than any of us could possibly imagine.

It’s easy to sketch out a scenario — or several — whereby there’s something akin to a civil war in the United States before the end of 2021. And the center of it will be Donald J. Fucking Trump. He’s such a dingdong that he could very well simply, without thinking about it, run around saying he is the “real” president should Cyber Ninjas “prove” that he “won” Arizona.

A number of MAGA dominated states could take him both literally and seriously and call conventions to leave the Union. Then he will squirm and try to — like he always does — to have it both ways. He will on one hand say he doesn’t support such efforts but on the other hand say that obviously they have a right to do such a thing since OBVIOUSLY he won the election.

The end result of this clusterfuck is we have a civil war now, and not in the 2024-2025 timeframe.

‘Triage’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is careening towards a very dark and tragic future. I can’t predict the future, but the there are some titanic forces at work in the United States that are tearing it apart on an existential level.

I struggle to imagine any situation where the United State avoids significant political violence up to and including an actual Second American Civil War. The key issue is what, exactly, pushes us past the breaking point.

There are a wide array of scenarios that one can think up at this point. Everything from the importune death of major political figure to the bogus Cyber Ninja recount in Arizona magically “proving” that Trump won the state might be enough to cause the most powerful country in the world to buckle in a rather spectacular fashion.

But none of them have happened yet. It could be that we’ll just do what we always do, which is punt the problem down the road again a few more years. Yet, even if we do manage to punt this crisis down the road, we will likely reach a dead end in the 2024-2025 timeframe.

My current fear is the same dynamic that we saw with the January 6 Capitol Insurrection will happen again on a much larger scale should, say, Cyber Ninjas pull a Trump “win” out of its butt in Arizona: Trump will be so busy crowing about how he “really won” that he won’t notice that his followers have lost their fucking minds and called conventions in a number of states to leave the Union.

By the time he gets around to saying, “sorry, not sorry” it will be too late. There will be a civil war and he’ll be at the center of it woefully unprepared for any sort of actual “war time” leadership. Then were will probably be a coup by any one of a dozen would-be MAGA Republican autocrats.

Good times!

So, the point is, we have to start thinking seriously about what we’re going to do should the collapse come. I wish I was smarter. Then I could layout some sort of practical approach the America’s impeding doom. I got nothing.

Maybe someone smarter than me can figure that out.

A Critique Of Space The Nation’s Deep Dive Into Orson Scott Card’s ‘Ender’s Game’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve been a fan of Ana Marie Cox’s since she was at Wonkette many moons ago. So, I really like her scifi podcast that she does with Daniel Drezner. I was really impressed with their take on Alien. But, I have to take issue with some of their hot takes on Orson Scott Card’s Ender’s Game.

The key thing about the book for me is while it’s a very influential, popular and well-regarded book, in some respects there’s not a lot of there there. As I recall, it’s almost all dialogue and what really makes the book meaningful is the shocking twist ending.

Meanwhile, I have always really like the sequel to the book, Speaker For The End. I read as a young man in the 80s and it changed my life. As such, I found it really annoying that Drezner shat on that book for some weird reason. Speaker For The Dead is an actual novel novel while Ender’s Game is, if I remember correctly, kind of half-assed in some respects. Even Cox observed that much of the third act is “telling” not “showing.”

So, Ender’s Game unto itself, at least for me, isn’t all that big a deal other than it’s really popular. It’s Speaker For The End that really shines in how it talks about if we ever encountered an alien species we really would need to walk a lightyear in their shoes before we came to any snap judgements about them. (A theme that is also found in Ender’s Game.)

Overall, I really like their podcast. It’s not too often that scifi nerds get a chance to geek out.

How Arizona’s Sham Recount Vote Could Start A Second American Civil War In 2021


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I only keep writing about my personal fears about a Second American Civil War because, lulz, almost all this otherwise obscure site’s traffic comes from people interested in my dystopian hellscape scenarios.

Anyway.

I do not think there’s going to be a Second American Civil War in 2021. If there is a Second American Civil War it will happen in the 2024-2025 timeframe and be one end of a continuum with MAGA autocratic rule on the other end. But let’s just sketch out how the bullshit Arizona recount taking place now could spark a Second American Civil War this year if things went really, really, bad.

So, the first step would be Cyber Ninjas to (surprise!) “prove” that Trump “really won” the state. There are actually two ways such a bogus result could buckle the United States. One, would be that would be cause Trump to run around saying he OBVIOUSLY is the “real” president. Then because of his absolute personality cult level of control over state Republicans, there is a cascading series of events that lead to a number of small population, lily white states in the Mountain region to announce that “Trump is the president” and that they will no longer recognize Biden.

The other way this could happen would be exactly the same, only a few other states would employ Cyber Ninjas to do to recounts. The same thing as the first scenario happens, only a little later.

But let’s get back to the clusterufuck.

This is where things get really, really interesting.

The middle ground of Red states saying they don’t recognize Biden as president would be untenable. There would come a point where they would either have to officially leave the Union or State governments would have to call up some sort of fighting force to stop the Biden Administration from enforcing globalist cuck cancel culture.

Now, at this point a whole lot of things would happen at the same time. The final put-up-or-shut-up call of fidelity to the Dear Leader would happen. Trump wouldn’t be much of a president if he didn’t have a government to run. And the States that had “left” the Union, would also need some sort of government to organize their efforts. As such, the MAGA legislatures of the Red States would begin to recall their representatives. That’s where a lot of people who think they’re entitled to be president would have make an existential decision.

Throw their lot with the “Rebels” or stay with the Union in an effort to hedge their bets that the Red Rebellion would fail and they would be safe to run for president post-rebellion?

What’s more, what about Mike Pence? He was on the 2020 Republican ticket, too. If he balked at joining Trump in his shadow government, then Trump would have to pick a new veep. And what about SCOTUS? Or the Federal government in general?

But, wait, there’s more.

For some people in Congress from Red States, things would be very murky. In Southern Red States in particular, what happens when the MAGA legislature of, say, South Carolina gets really excited and throws its lot with the Red Rebels…but because politics has collapsed all this does is throw the state into something of a race war. So, it’s departure from the Union is so undecided and yet the two sides are so absolute in their opposition to each other, its representatives to Congress would be pulled in two directions at the same time.

Stay in Congress and attempt to do a “I haven’t seen the tweets” type of stance, or leave Congress in hopes that the Rebels will win and they will have far more political power long-term. But, this, too, would be untenable. MAGA representatives in Congress from across the South would have to make an existential decision.

One that if they picked wrong, would destroy their political careers.

But let me be clear — I just don’t see any of this happening this year. Maybe in the 2024-2025 timeframe because of the passions of the 2024 presidential cycle…but not this year.

Maybe I’m wrong, maybe I’m not. We’ll know soon enough.

Marie Yovanovitch & Trump’s ‘Big Boy Crime’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I keep writing about this because it’s dark and it bothers me. It bothers me that we’re not paying attention to the implications of the recent FBI raid of Rudy Giuliani’s place.

When the news first came out that Trump and Rudy were mixed up with Ukrainian goons to put American ambassador Marie Yovanovitch “through some things” I sat up and took notice.

Even at the time, it was obvious to me that something very dark was afoot between Trump, Rudy and the goons. But we were so busy thinking about impeachment and lulzing Trump destroying the country that for most people what exactly may have happened didn’t register.

But, in short, if you follow the implications of what we know, I think something like this happened: Trump was desperate for a statement from the Ukrainian government that would implicate Hunter Biden (and by extension, Joe Biden) in corruption. As such, the people who might give that announcement to Trump set up a quid pro quo — you get rid of Yovanovitch and you get what you want.

Now, here’s where it gets murky.

Trump was president, so in theory he could just have fired her and that would be that. But there is a lot of evidence that Trump was ranting about how she was going to “go through some things” and I think he was even more hysterical than that, putting an even finer point on how her physical safety was at risk. (I apologize for being too lazy at the moment to look up the exact quotes. But given how much this bothers me, I probably will be a tiny bit more professional in subsequent posts.)

Anyway, it definitely seems possible that Trump was so desperate to get his fake announcement that he was prepared to “terminate” Yovanovitch on a physical level using Ukrainian goons who were already stalking her in Kiev. They were getting so bad that the embassy freaked out and told her to get the hell out of town in the middle of the night.

So, what if what the corrupt Ukrainians wanted for their announcement was not just Yovanovitch’s firing but her death? What if THAT was the quid pro quo? And it’s not much of a stretch to imagine a situation where Trump was ranting about how she needed to be “taken out” without even realizing that the idiot Ukrainian goons, if they heard about such comments through Rudy, would take Trump both literally AND seriously and do just that.

If the FBI could find proof of such communication and direction between Trump and the goons via Rudy then…oh boy. That would be a quantum leap over and above even Trump’s direct involvement with the January 6th Capitol Insurrection.

But that’s a pretty big ask. I am painfully aware of how easy it is to speculate on anything to do with Trump then be shown for a fool in more ways than one. Yet, if the FBI had evidence that Trump — even in an idiotic manner — was wrapped up in a murder for hire scheme as part of a quid pro quo that would, at last, be Trump’s Big Boy Crime.

The Curious Case Of Modern American Pop Culture


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now that the COVID19 pandemic is gradually beginning to abate, at least in the United States, it makes one wonder What’s Next. It would be nice to think that we might be entering a post-Rona world tan, ready and rested. That there might be the shock of the new in some respect on the cultural front.

And, yet, it definitely seems as though that’s not going to happen.

It definitely seems as though we’re going to continue to go through the paces. No new musical genres will burst forth. No new publications will stir new points of view. No new movies will will shock and delight in new, innovative ways. Something pretty big would have to happen for this not to be the case.

I can only speculate that maybe because the Internet is mature and Silicon Valley is thinking way too small that this is it. For the foreseeable future, American culture will continue to be in a vague neutral.

What’s so frustrating about this is I know, given the opportunity and resources, that I, personally, could do something really cool. I do have a novel I’m working on, and I’m pleased with how that’s shaping up. But it would be so nice to be able to work on a successor to Gawker or something. Something that would shake the media landscape up.

I think I’m just going to have to be content with pinning all my hopes and dreams on the novel.

A Half-Assed Review Of The Movie ‘Nobody’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me begin by saying I almost always walk out of movies these days, since I started working on a novel. It really takes something special for me to stay. So, when I say I walked out of “Nobody” the moment I figured what the plot was, that should not be taken to mean I didn’t like it or that you shouldn’t go see it yourself.

I did like it. And you should go see it yourself.

And, really, up until the moment I figured out what the plot was going to be, which, in this case, what just past the inciting incident, I thought I was going to finish the movie. But the moment I realized 1) the inciting incident was extremely contrived and 2) the movie was so violent as to be pornographic and bounced.

But the general conceit of the movie was great as was the implementation. I just couldn’t stand the violence, which was gratuitous and boring. Yet, I could see someone a little bit younger than me who didn’t mind such over-the-top violence enjoying the movie a great deal.

Though, I will note, there must have been some way to not have the inciting incident be sooooo contrived. If the protagonist had such an extensive secret life, why not come up with something a bit more organic that didn’t involve random people being at just the right place and time to cause the story to move forward.

Yet, I am extremely picky about storytelling because I’m working on a novel. So, lulz, two thumbs up. Go see “Nobody.”