I’m embarrassed to say that I was not able — so far — to finish “Don’t Look Up.” So, you have every reason not to listen to me if I can’t even finish the movie I’m writing about. But this post isn’t really about the movie itself but rather how it could have been made so I was able to finish it.
First, I have to praise the movie for some subtle touches. What I saw was interesting in how it was able to indict both Blue and Red for not giving the crisis enough weight. And, yet, at the same time, it was just around that moment when the movie started to lose me. Don’t Look Up was really, really good up until about the moment they met POTUS.
It was all down hill from there.
How would I fix the movie, though? I think I would have not been so “wet” in my humor. The movie grows more and more hysterical to the point of it being both depressing, preachy and excretable. All it did was remind me of how global climate change is real and we’re doing jack shit to stop it.
I think if the writers had studied Network a little bit more closely, I could have finished watching it. I really liked Being The Ricardos and I think that vibe is closer to how I would have produced the movie. I would have laid off on the preachy, heavy handed social commentary and maybe found humor in how everyday life was being changed as it grew more and more clear the end of the world was coming.
Now, I did not finish the movie so, lulz, I don’t know how it ended. So maybe the movie turned out a lot better than it was at about the midpoint. I cared a lot for the characters in the first 15 minutes and then all that good will was promptly squandered by everyone screeching at each other.
I may try again to watch Don’t Look Up, but I’m going to have to think about it some before going into it this time.
If anything new was happening between Russia and Ukraine, I would write about it. But, for the time being, all’s quiet. So, we wait. It’s past 7 p.m. in Ukraine so it must be dark now.
We’re in something of the danger zone for Something Big happening in that part of the world because of it being dark now. And, yet, I think we’re safe. I think we’re just all on edge and the attack in Lviv won’t prove to be the thing we fear it is — a false flag operation designed to start a winter war between Russia and Ukraine.
Again, if something doesn’t change VERY SOON, then we miss the historical twofer of the Christmas Eve / Christmas Day situation and the pressure is lifted. Putin can just attack any old time between now and Orthodox Christmas and that will be that. Or maybe it won’t attack at all.
I honestly don’t know what is going to happen with this attack on the Russian consulate in Lviv, Ukraine. But the argument could definitely be made that it is the fig leaf necessary for Putin to invade Ukraine.
And, yet, for it to happen tonight EST, something would have to change big time. Hostile attacks against Ukraine on the part of the Russians would have to escalate VERY SOON to the point that we all sit up and take notice. Cyber attacks. Increased artillery barrages. I honestly don’t know enough about how things would go down. I guess it’s possible that all hell would just suddenly break loose sometime late evening today EST?
Or maybe nothing is going to happen.
It could be I’m way overthinking things. The actual attack was minimal, so lulz. The only reason why one might think it was a casus belli is, well, we all on edge and it would definitely make sense for something like this to happen right before a major invasion of Ukraine.
It really could go either way at the moment. It could be that nothing is going to happen, just as I have come to assume. But the next few hours will be telling.
I’m beginning to think I was wrong — AGAIN — to even contemplate Russia invading Ukraine anytime soon. But, I will note in passing that Putin has something of a deadline at the moment if he wants to lean into the symbolism of Christmas Eve – Christmas Day timeframe
The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan on Christmas Eve, 1979. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union officially dissolved at noon on Christmas Day, 1991. So, if Putin wants to change the narrative from “30 years since the end of the Soviet Union” to “Holy shit, the Russians have invaded Ukraine” they need to do it, like RIGHT NOW.
If it were to happen, Something Big would probably begin to happen mid-to-late afternoon EST. If we make it to Christmas Eve evening EST without a major Russian cyber attack against Ukraine or any number of other hostile actions, then, lulz, we’ve passed the “twofer” moment.
After that, it could be anytime between now and either Orthodox Christmas or Orthodox New Year’s that the Russo-Ukrainian War might begin. I’m beginning to think that, thankfully, for the near term, things are going to be a dud.
I’m now wading into figuring out what is “real” in my epic five novel series. It’s a lot of fun, but it ‘s also a huge pain in the ass. The reason is, there comes a point where I run out of things to say about this or that thing and I feel guilty that I’m not writing 25 pages on it.
But I guess everyone is different when it comes to how they develop and write. So, as long as I write or read *some* it’s ok. I’m really hoping to start writing a lot again at some point just after January 1st. I’m going to use the holidays to take a chill pill and just develop and read.
I find myself wanting to get back into writing as soon as possible, however. I’m just about finished a new fleshout outline and the structure of this new draft works well enough for me to throw myself into things. But I want to do things properly.
When I get back to writing, I want everything to be locked down so things go smooth enough that I can “just write.” The thing I notice about published novel, which is so tough, *IS* the level of consistency, of canon. So, that’s why sitting down and writing out what is “real” is so important. Only by having a cheat sheet of sorts can I have the best possible product when my beta readers — however I manage to find them — read the second draft.
Finding beta readers given that I have no friends, no one likes me and I’m flat broke is going to be a real pain in the ass. But you have to believe. You have to keep the faith. I’ve gotten this far, I can figure out somehow, someway to get within shouting distance of getting published in the traditional manner.
This the first time someone asked *why* we’re going to have a civil war, so here goes. The United States is, on a structural level, very unstable right now. There’s a huge wealth and education divide between rural and urban. AND, white Christian people are feeling very nervous about how the country is growing more brown, more secular and more feminist in the cities.
Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
There is, just like right before the first civil war, a definite difference of opinion as to what it means to be American. What’s more, the Right’s rhetoric has grown ever-more violent, to the point that it definitely seems as though they are itching for any opportunity to begin to murder people like me for political reasons.
Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:
It’s not in our nature to have a civil war. For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
Republicans have gamed the system. It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
Not Trump 2024 Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
Autocracy is very popular in the United States A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed. Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.
So, the most powerful nation on earth is now beginning to, on a political basis, spin out of control. And the only question is do we implode and become an autocracy, or do we explode and have a civil war. At the moment, I honestly don’t know which one is going to happen.
Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.
Oregon The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.
Virginia Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.
Michigan I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.
New York Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.
Maine I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.
Texas Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.
California In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.
The Deep South It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.
As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.
Welp, this is the moment of truth. It could go either way and it’s up to Putin which way it goes. Which, of course, is exactly what he wants. It’s now after dark in Ukraine as best I can tell, so we just wait.
It could be that if Putin wants to start a war, it will be tomorrow night so it would be Dec. 24th in the US. Or it could be that the actual war would start on Dec 24 Russia time and, as such, the war would start tonight. The prep for the war could begin at literally any moment.
Probably what would happen is a massive cyber attack, combined with those paratroopers landing in Ukraine and then, maybe, a massive artillery barrage to soften up the front line so when the tanks roll in, they can go farther.
And, really, the issue at that point would be how well the Ukrainians stood up to the attack. If they do well, it’s a smash and grab operation. If they do poorly, then it becomes a general war and there’s a mad rush on Kiev by Russian and Belarusian forces.
But, like I’ve said — I’m always, always wrong. So, it could be we just have a tense few days and then…we just go back to normal. It could be that all of this was just a very expensive flex by the 70-year-old Putin.
I’m still very reluctant to believe a major war between Russia and Ukraine is about to break out, but there are some interesting metrics to look at of late. For me, the chief issue is exactly when that paratrooper drop is supposed to happen today.
If it happens in broad daylight, then, lulz, we can take it at face value.
But if it happens after dark, then I’m going to grow really nervous. And the later is happens at night, the more ominous its meaning would become. Because it would be a lot more difficult to track exactly where the drop happened. So, what if instead of Crimea and just to the east of Donbas, the airdrop was in Ukraine proper and the whole thing is a setup for a full blown invasion tomorrow, Christmas Eve?
There is so much I don’t know. Wouldn’t there be a lot of alarming scurrying be seen around Ukraine as everyone turned their tank on and started racing towards the border? Seems like that, unto itself, would take time. Enough time that it wouldn’t be Christmas Eve, but rather something closer to New Year’s. But what do I know?
All I know is the next 24 to 48 hours are critical. If we can get past that time, then I think we’ve passed an immediate danger. And invasion might still happen, but once you get pass starting a major war on the eve of the 30th anniversary of the end of the Soviet Union, then, lulz. You can pretty much do it anytime you want.
I’m always wrong, so I’m not prepared to say a war is actually going to start anytime soon — if ever — but it is something to keep an eye on for the next few days.
Apparently, Putin loves to fuck with the West when it comes to his military plans. He always does things in such a way that it’s all very nebulous and up to interpretation until it isn’t.
So, when I heard that there were going to be paratrooper drops around Ukraine today and it was all a “drill” I took it at face value until something occurred to me — a likely first step of any invasion of Ukraine by Russia would be….large-scale paratrooper drops.
As such it’s at least possible that all those paratroopers are going to accidently on purpose fall not in Russian controlled territory but…whoopsie…inside Ukraine.
They would prep the way for a large scale invasion on Christmas Eve and away we go. I am still don’t believe any such thing is going to happen, but it is at least…possible.
I believe I’ve come up with a plan whereby I wrap up a final draft in 2022 and begin the process querying literary agents sometime during the fall querying season. It my understanding that there are two major times of the year to query — spring and fall.
Anyway, I still have a bum ankle for the time being and I hope to use how indisposed I am to speed the process of developing, reading and writing up considerably. At the moment, I have about three more weeks of not being able to go anywhere — then I have to start physical therapy.
That, at least, is the plan. Only time will tell how successful it is.
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