Category: Cold Civil War

Unpacking The MAGA New Right’s Obsession With A Second Revolution


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

An element of the rhetorical political froth within the MAGA New Right is the idea that if “woke” people don’t watch out, the South Will Rise Again and there will be some sort of, I don’t know, Turner Diaries in real life. Now, all of this is very, very dumb.

To me, what really is going on is MAGA New Right people get so worked up whenever their fee-fees get hurt over this or that “woke” policy that they grasp for the worst possible thing they can think of. They babble about a Second Civil War or even Second Revolution. They see themselves as Patriots who will take down the “tyranny” of people who want them to wear masks and quibble out pronouns.

There is so much to unpack here.

First, collectively, the MAGA New Right is made up of racist cock sucker peices of shit. They’re scared of a changing America where women are economically and sexually liberated and white people are no longer the majority. In short, they’re kind of freaking out. Now, on an individual basis most of the conservative people I know — and am related to — aren’t racist. But they are a part of systemic racism. I can’t talk about that, however, because that’s Critical Race Theory and, I don’t know, the Thought Police division of ICE is going to swoop down and murder me in cold blood if I write about it anymore.

The craziest part of all of this is, when it comes to the hard power of the government making laws, the MAGA New Right is ascendant. They control huge swaths of the government and after we finally decide civil war or autocracy in 2024 – 2025, may have autocratic control in the United States for decades, generations, to come.

But there is a chance that there will, instead be a civil war. And it won’t be the MAGA New Right that starts it, but rather the center-Left when Blue States — staring with California — leave the Union because of some sort of Certification Crisis.

THEN, it’s possible the fucking cocksucker MAGA New Right fuckheads will get ot have their revolution in the context of a civil war, though in all honesty, even then it would probably be a COUNTER-Revolution.

Anyway, the point is — we’re fucked. Totally, completely fucked. If the US collapses, then WW3 really would start soon after. Then the issue is how many people die and what the world will look like after the “Great Reset” of a “Fourth Turning” is over.

Is humanity more united, or simply run by a bunch of fucking autocrats? Only time will tell.

‘Shall We Play A Game?’ Staring Into The Void Of WW3


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The idea that we consider “WW3” is actually a spectrum of different scenarios, with The End Of The World being on one end and just a big old lulz at the other end. A lot of what would be “WW3” would be something that was marketed as such by the press.

The most likely scenario for something called “WW3” would be two or more regional wars happening at the same time. So, if China attacked Taiwan because it felt Russia was a brother in arms, then, that, legitimately, could be called WW3.

But no matter what, it’s at least possible that WW3 has already begun, we just don’t realize it yet. If Russia used low-grade battlefield nukes on Ukraine, then the slide into an actual fighting war between NATO and Russia would likely accelerate. And given that the 80 year old taboo against using nukes would no longer exist, Taiwan would definitely begin to look far more enticing to China. And, of course, you have the wildcard of the DPRK floating around.

AND — and this is a very important and — you have to take into account that the US is careening towards unprecedented instability starting the moment the Republicans take control of Congress. And that instability will only get worse and worse as we approach the existential choice of autocracy or civil war in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe.

So, it’s possible that in hindsight, 2022 will be seen not as 1939, but as 1937, the year when Japan attacked China in a big way and laid the groundwork for WW2. Or, put another way, you could go so far as to say you can count in months the time we have of lingering “normal” life before all hell really breaks loose.

The real question is what will the world look like once we get through this Great Reset or Fourth Turning (or whatever you want to call it.) Either humanity will be run by a bunch of autocrats or we’ll be even more united and able to deal with Big Issues like global climate change.

A few million (billion?) people may have died to get us to that latter endgame, but hopefully their deaths won’t have been in vain. But let me be clear — the United States is ripe for revolution / civil war in the coming years. If you were looking at America as different nation than ours this would be clear. And, honestly, I think the only thing that’s stopped us from collapsing is interia and the general laid back national personality of Americans. We’re not French, afterall.

Gird your loins.

WW3: Putin’s Challenge To Pax America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The nightmare scenario we face at the moment, of course, is that Putin is no longer a rational actor. As such, the same screwy logic that had him go into Ukraine might cause him to attack NATO in some way. Either by, say, attacking a convoy supplying Ukraine or attacking a Baltic state or states.

That would be when Putin and NATO would face an existential choice. Either they figured out some way to reduce tensions, or they went at it. I read Tom Clancy’s Red Storm Rising novel when I was a kid and much of what I learned from it way back when it still applicable. Just because WW3 started, doesn’t mean it would have to go nuclear.

What I could imagine happening is some sort of geopolitical tet-a-tet between the Usual Suspects of nations that would have a vested interest in ending the 75 year old Pax America. If Putin was somehow able to get China, the DPRK and Iran to make a full-blow attack against American global dominance, then we’re going to the show.

In a way, I think the DPRK would be the lynchpin of any attempt on Putin’s bonkers calculations. The DPRK is so strange, there is at least a chance they might be leaned on to attack the South Koreans in a big way, without really realizing they were being used as a pawn for Russia and China’s bigger goal of re-arranging the global order.

The DPRK is a unique nuclear state in that it has the means and opportunity to destroy a major American city without ending anything but itself. In other words, the DPRK has ICBMs and H-bombs that it could use to zap LA, NYC or DC…and in the end all that would happen is the USA would, in turn, bomb the DPRK into the Stone Age.

But using a City Killer on NYC or LA would leave a serious mark on the USA, to the point that Russia and China could re-arrange the global political order to their liking without sacrificing any of their own people. This is a real stretch to some extent, but if Putin is no longer a rational actor, then it’s logic that we at least have to mull.

The thing is, once WW3 started, by definition, the peace and prosperity that billions have enjoyed since WW2 would come to a rather abrupt end. There would be no value to it and we would only give it narrative after it was over. So, in short — the bad guys might win. The USA could be left crippled after a limited nuclear exchange with the DPRK and Russia and China would fill the void.

Meanwhile, Iran and Israel might blow each other up, as might India and Pakistan. A real New World Order might emerge, with China, specifically, having a clear shot at dominating the world both economically and politically. Russia might also rise in the context of global climate change that no one seems all that interested in doing anything about.

What’s more, even if we manage to escape WW3 in the near term, around 2024 – 2025, all the conditions are there for it to happen, anyway, since the US is either going to become Fortress Autocratic America or have a civil war. In either case, everything will be scrambled for the first time in around 80 years. It will be The Great Reset or The Fourth Turning, depending on how bonkers or conspiratorial you are.

Good luck.

Running The WW3 Scenario


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a lot of talk these days about the possibility of World War Three happening. Well, let’s think about how it might happened and what it would, in practical terms, look like.

The first issue is we don’t know if Putin is a rational actor or not on the world stage. But, then, we didn’t expect him to invade Ukraine and he did that, so we have to take seriously that he might go after the Baltic states who are members of NATO.

If he did that, then, yes, in a legal sense WW3 would begin. But a lot would depend on what happened after that. If Putin just fucked with the Baltic states, that wouldn’t really be WW3 unless there was some sort of limited nuclear exchange. Him just scaring the shit out of the Baltics enough that it was considered an act of war and caused them to invoke NATO’s Article 5…would just be really meaningless – but scary — events.

What Putin would need would be an Axis of some sort. He would need other major powers who wanted to challenge Pax America as well to act in unison with him. This would require, of course, Putin to convince President Xi of China to attack Taiwan — potentially with tactical nukes after Putin had broken that particular taboo himself in Ukraine.

Xi might, in turn, lean on the North Koreans to go after the the South Koreans as some sort of distraction. And, if Putin was REALLY LUCKY, he might be able to rope Iran into this particular clusterfuck as well.

As all of this was happening, you would also probably have India and Pakistan going at it as well. So, there you go. That would be WW3 and there would be no assurances that either Pax America survives or that, well, any of us survives.

Hard Power Vs. Soft Power


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing that is so interesting is how my Traditionalist relatives are not satisfied with having hard, legal power. MAGA and the conservative movement in general is ascendant.

If they don’t manage to bungle the transition into autocracy and push the United States into a needless Second Civil War, there’s a good chance that they’ll have very hard power for decades to come. But that’s not good enough for them — they want soft power, too.

The Traditionalists in my family are enraged by the soft power of the “woke” movement. Even after I beg and plead with them to see how the woke movement has only soft power, they just don’t care. They hate that “Woke Culture” exists at all and want to destroy it. Period.

I assume this comes from how much they hate the perceived media narrative where they fear they will be “canceled” just for being conservative. While this is a valid fear, sad to say, if push came to shove, I would much rather have hard legal power than the soft power that woke people have.

Mike Pompeo — future autocrat, fat fuck.

So, I don’t know what to tell you. In the end, it’s likely that my Traditionalist relatives will be the backbone of America’s autocracy. My relatives will have only one red line — ME. And by the time I vanish because I cross President Mike Pompeo by constantly calling him out as a fat fuck, it will be woefully too late.

The Curious Case of MAGA’s January 6th Insurrection Logic


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate to break it to you, but there’s absolutely nothing the January 6th Committee can find out that will mean jack shit long term. For macro reasons, Republicans will sweep Congress, impeach Biden and Harris (repeatedly) and set the stage for the epic existential choice of autocracy or civil war in 2024 – 2025.

Having said that, it is very interesting the logic that MAGA uses when it comes to what we all saw on January 6th. There logic, what there is, goes something like this: a combination of Antifa and the FBI organized a small group of informants to do the parts that make us look bad, while the parts that we like were done by patriots who simply wanted to “Stop the Steal.”

It’s tough to even get MAGA people to admit that the protesters were armed. You have to get very specific and pin them down that a pole, too, can be considered a form of armament. Meanwhile, other MAGA people want us to believe that just a “small portion” of the insurrectionists were to blame and, lulz, most of Trump’s policies were great, thank go Ron DeSantis will be the 2024 Republican nominee.

It’s all very, very fucking annoying and points to a very dark future ahead of us. When the autocracy comes there will be people in my family who will have one red line and one red line only — ME. When ICE (or whatever) snatches me off the street for saying President Mike Pompeo is still a fat fuck no matter how much weight he’s lost, THEN they will get upset.

Ugh.

But if that doesn’t happen, we’re going to have a civil war and we’re going to bomb ourselves into oblivion.

I’m Growing Concerned About The Imminent Threat Of WW3



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems to me that the likelihood of some sort of mistake leading to a shooting war between NATO and Russia is growing every day. I always thought that if WW3 happened it would be because China invaded Taiwan or the DPRK invaded South Korea.

But given how aggressive NATO is being, it definitely seems as though something might go wrong and there could be the nightmare scenario of an actual shooting war between NATO and the Russian bear. Everyone involved would have a reason not to go nuclear, but that doesn’t mean a lot of people might not die in the process.

Or, put another way, some sort of limited nuclear exchange might happen between NATO and Russia — think what might have happened had the Cuban Missile Crisis gotten hot. If something like that happened, then all my hysterical doom shit about the rise of fascism in the United States definitely would take on a different context.

Just the EMP alone of a major American city being vaporized would be enough to change life for the millions who didn’t die in the blast itself. I’m just nervous in general, I guess.

These continue to be unprecedented times.

The Russo-Ukrainian Winter War’s Impending WW1 Endgame — We Have To Prepare For The Violent Collapse Of Putin’s Russia


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

History is a fickle mistress. Nowhere is this more obvious that than Russia. I’m just a nobody in the middle of nowhere — you probably shouldn’t listen to me — but I do have a hot take on Russia’s future.

It seems to me that Russia’s military in Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. If that happens, then there could be a significant cascading series of events that ultimately leads to Putin’s downfall.

Given Russia’s size and the number of nukes it has, this would throw the entire world order for a loop. There could be loose nukes. Limited nuclear exchanges, you name it. But there would also be a lot of opportunity. Russia has huge unlocked potential and if there was some macro creative destruction in Russia, there is a chance that the nation could transform itself form economic backwater to economic powerhouse within a generation.

I say this in the context of global climate change. But the process of this propose transformation would be very bloody and very painful for millions –if not billions — of people.

So, I don’t know. But it would be very ironic if there was a Second Russian Revolution just as the United States had a Second Civil War and we switch sides politically and economically. Russia liberating itself just as America turns into a theocratic, autocratic state would be rather surreal and ironic.

But it’s very much a real possibility, given macro trends in both nations as we lurch towards 2024 – 2025.

Anocracy In America: Only Trump Can Stop Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at This Point


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

You’re a fool if you think Ron DeSantis isn’t probably going to be the next president of the United States. As of right now, he’s got a straight shot at becoming America’s Putin. He will gradually at first, then more and more quickly, strangle American democracy and we’ll wake up in 20 years with him still being president.

But there are still some obstacles to him becoming America’s Putin. First of all, there’s Trump. Either Trump destroys DeSantis politically, or the two come to some agreement whereby DeSantis is Trump’s veep and ultimate successor. The latter is a win-win for both Trump and DeSantis, but Trump is so stupid and lazy that I could easily see Trump naming someone really crazy like Mike Flynn to be his veep.

Then we really would have something to cry about.

Another wildcard is the Russo-Ukrainian War. If it escalates into something closer to WW3, then there is a small chance that everything will be so changed that Biden or Harris (or name a Democrat) might be in a position to leverage that particular clusterfuck to at least punt the existential choice of autocracy or civil war down the road one more presidential election cycle.

But the point is — we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked. No one is going to save us and at this point, the only question is who is going to be America’s Putin. We can only punt the fall of our democracy down the road for so long.

It’s growing more and more obvious that, tragically, the only hope of saving our democracy may be the high risk, high reward option of civil war. But there are no assurances that there would be a pat endgame. Things could be very muddled and the world will fly past a broken America.

Stay Of Play For The Russo-Ukrainian Winter War For March 2, 2022: Contemplating The Fall Of Kyiv


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We really need to manage our expectations when it comes to this war in the near term. It could very well be that the Russians will “win” in the near term simply because they’re bloodthirsty enough to burn Ukraine to the ground to get what they want.

My fear for the future of Ukraine.

Part of this would be the fall of Kyiv.

What worries me is not so much what this would mean for events on the ground — the Ukrainians would keep fighting, no matter what — as it it would mean for the Western media narrative.

If and when Kyiv falls, then the Western media might grow a lot more doom -and -gloom about Ukraine’s prospects. To the point that they might move on to the next big news event. Which, come to think of it, they are going to do anyway, given the impending arrival of the political silly season later on this year as part of the the 2022 mid-terms.

So, in a sense, if the Russians don’t sue for peace, but rather escalate things and simply burn Ukraine to the ground, the whole thing might become background noise to the more pressing issue of Trump potentially becoming Speaker of the House in 2023.

Thus, I think we may look back on 2016 as the last “normal” year we’re going to have for a long, long time. In fact, the era between 2016 and, maybe 2030 could be seen as a macro “Great Reset” that either leaves humanity united and able to handle Big Issues like Global Climate change or hopelessly divided to the point that our continued existence is moot.

Anyway, the the clock is ticking. If the Russo-Ukrainian Winter war drags on beyond winter and is still going strong this fall, then everything will be different. If it’s still going on next year, then the quisling MAGA politicians who will then be running Congress may lulz the whole thing since they’ll be impeaching both Biden and Harris repeatedly.