Category: Cold Civil War

This Clusterfuck Power Struggle Between Texas & The Feds Could Go A Number Of Different Ways

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The reason why the current stand off between the Feds and Texas is so dangerous is it taps into the race member of so many conservative white Southerners who have a lingering belief that “the South shall rise again.”

What surprises me is how much of a low simmer this provocative situation has been on since it started. We’ve yet to reach any sort of tipping point where all hell breaks out and the country collapses — even though the entire Right of the US seems determined to make that a reality.

If anything, on a personal basis, I can console myself with the idea that at the moment it seems as though if there is a Second Civil War it won’t be because “my side” — the Blues — started as I have long feared. That could still happen if things calm down in Texas and Trump cheats to win in 2024, but, for the moment, it will be Reds who will have to take the blame for destroying the greatest country in the world because of “vibes.”

But none of that has happened yet. It’s still possible that we’ll muddle through like we have so often in the past. That’s what I hope happens, at least.

Why Isn’t Mainstream Media Talking About The Power Struggle Between Texas & The Feds?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m slowly growing obsessed with what is going on between Texas and the Federal government at the border. So much so, that I find myself at a loss that the center-Left mainstream media has been pretty mum about what’s going on.

I think that maybe this is the case because they are making the editorial judgement that if THEY give it attention, the there’s a real risk that things will escalate and we’ll end up with either another insurrection or even a civil war. I get it. It makes sense.

But I am so starved for commentary about what’s going on that I am tempted to listen to Right wing podcasts which I’m SURE are all over this particular clusterfuck. I haven’t quite gotten there yet, but it may happen.

And it could be that something will happen sooner rather than later that will force the hand of the MSM and they’ll have to start talking about it.

Everything Old Is New Again

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

That Gov. Kevin Stitt of Oklahoma would claim on CNN that the Federal government doesn’t make states….is pretty outrageous, coming from someone whose state was CREATED BY THE FEDERAL GOVERNENT OUT OF THE INDIAN TERRITORY.

It gets even more comical when you take into consideration the fact that when the CSA lost the Civil War, they were re-organized and re-admitted into the Union as part of Reconstruction. So, even a state like Texas can’t claim that it wasn’t “created” by the Federal government.

Not only is Stitt’s argument one of the same ones that the founders of the Confederate States of America made, it also pisses me off so much that now I think Blue states should just ignore SCOTUS on issues of guns and abortion. It was stunning to see Stitt freak out in his car while doing a hit on CNN with Jake Tapper when Tapper brought this up.

It was surreal to see his absolute political need to protect guns at all costs on a political basis cause him to zoom right past any compunction he might have had to feel any sense of hypocrisy on what he was saying.

I hate that someone saying something so dumb and hypocritical has single handedly caused me to grow more a tick more radical, but here we are. It’s time way past time for President Biden to nationalize the National Guard of ANY state that stands in the way of the SCOTUS decision.

We Live In Surreal Times

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems that the conditions exist for the world’s first and lone hyperpower to just…collapse because of “vibes.” The Republican Party’s long-hopped for moment to finally “own the libs” once and for all by destroying the greatest country in the world is finally here — the question now is, of course, how far are they prepared to go?

I honestly don’t know. It could go either way. It’s one of those things where while all the conditions exist for Something Bad to happen…it could be all a big lulz. There’s a little bit of momentum already in the system for escalation….but not enough for things to get out of hand.


I still think it’s possible that there might be some sort of “insurrection” that takes place, but not an actual secession crisis that destroys the country. Only time will tell, I suppose.

Two Different American Media Echo Chambers Exist

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s kind of surreal how nothing is being said in the mainstream center-Left media about the possibility of a shootout between Texas and Federal forces at the border, while that’s all the alternative center-Right press wants to talk about.

This is an example of how “vibes” may be the downfall of the country.

It is also an example of how should something crazy happen in Texas that the mainstream media is going to have egg on its face because it totally did not prepare people for what was about to happen.

But I get it — they probably did not want to unduly alarm people.

It could be that this is just going to be a standoff for a while and nothing will happen. That’s what I hope happens, at least.

NeverTrumpers As Modern Day War Democrats

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Because history usually takes the most surreal, ironic path possible, I could see a near future — after some sort of civil war / revolution — where what we call the “NeverTrump” movement might be ascendant.

I say that because, in general, the United States is a center-Right nation with center-Left aspirations. As such, if political gravity violently snapped back into place because of a Blue victory in a second civil war / revolution, then there would probably be a lot of popularity for conservatives who opposed Trump.

Of course, in the more near term, I wonder what strange, surreal political situations we might find ourselves in if there was some sort of major confrontation on the border between Texas and the Feds. If the two sides started shooting at each other, then…oh boy.

It’s possible that there MIGHT be a secession crisis and a lot of MAGA Republicans would have to make a decision as to how much they really were in Trump’s pocket and how loyal they remained to the Union. All of this would only increase the power of the existing NeverTrump movement.

If — and this may be a huge if — IF Blues win any civil war / revolution that might happen because of ding-dong Trump, then for a little while, at least, NeverTrumpers might be the catbird’s seat politically.

Insurrection 2.0?

by Shet Garner
@shetgarner

I almost went to the January 6th Insurrection to cover it as something of a Citizen Journalist. But it was too cold and too far away. What’s more, even if I had gone, it’s highly unlikely I would have stayed long enough to actually “cover” it.

Flash forward and here we are, with the risk of another “incident” taking place, this time at the Texas border. It’s easy to overestimate what might happen this weekend because we did all get burned on January 6th.

What makes me nervous is MAGA state governments are primed and ready for some sort of Insurrection 2.0 in Texas. The MAGA insurrectionist propaganda that has been flowing for years now cues up a situation where all the conditions exist for political violence to happen.

And, what’s more, if there was some sort of shoot out, there would be a huge amount of pressure on both sides to prove a point. I have a growing sense that we’re more likely to see — at least at first — some sort of major insurrection than Texas leaving the Union over what’s going on.

That may happen if Something Big happens at the border, but not at first. But if a few people died because of a shoot out between the Feds and Texas then the USA would ring like a bell. The political consequences would be a quantum leap beyond January 6th.

If there was a major Insurrection or even Secessionist Crisis, it would do a great deal to help re-elect Joe Biden. And there is, of course, the whole issue of how many craven MAGA pols would actually leave their positions of power in Washington to help found a Trumplandia government.

Also, what would the new Red Government be called? Trumplandia? That’s what it SHOULD be called, but, lulz, what do I know.

Everything Is So Dumb

by Shelt Garner
@shetgarner

Allegedly, tomorrow, Friday, January 26 is D-Day when it comes to Biden forcing Texas to put its money where its money is. And, what’s more, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem is going to be there in person?

This is a Not Great, Bob, situation.

What if there’s a fucking shootout between the Texas National Guard and the Feds while Gov. Noem is chilling out, flirting with cute National Guard members who look like Corey Lewandowski.

Everything is so fucking dumb!

Hopefully, though, this is all going to be a lulz. Hopefully, I’m getting all worked up for no reason and it won’t be a huge clusterfuck.

I Haven’t Felt This Uneasy Since The Very Beginning Of The COVID19 Pandemic

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can remember the dread I felt in really early 2020 about how bad things might get with COVID19. I really, really overestimated how bad things would get, but I was spot-on that everything was about to change for a few months.

And, now, we have a potential insurrection 2.0 / civil war on our hands.

For the time being, I think this situation is just going to simmer. The late night talk show hosts haven’t weighed in, so that’s a good sign that my fears about an escalation happening because of a combination of political pressure, misjudgment and momentum haven’t been realized yet.

I think we’re probably more likely to just have a lot of smoke but no fire. I would be stunned if my absolute worst fear — a secession crisis — happened before Election Day. I have political faith in Biden. I think he’s wise enough to hold off on escalation for the time being — until the political pressure just gets too strong and he has to do something, anything to prove he’s listening.

It definitely will be interesting to see what happens next, though, I have to say. We live in strange, surreal times.

Mulling All My Dystopian Hellscape Predictions

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If This Is It and there’s going to be a force-on-force conflict between Texas and Federal forces, I pretty much gave MAGA cocksuckers too much credit when I was gaming out civil war scenarios the last few years.

Rather than it being Blues that left the Union — or started a revolution — it would be the far more obvious situation of MAGA pretty much doing exactly what the South did in first civil war.

One thing I don’t think we’ve not given enough thought to is the idea that maybe there will be some sort of half-assed civil war, that would be more of an insurrection than an actual civil war. In this scenario, states like Texas don’t officially leave the Union.

They just engaged in armed combat against the Federal government. Maybe, eventually, there might be some sort of secession crisis, but in the near future, it would be more fisticuffs than ballroom brawl.

But the issue remains — this whole situation could get a little crazy really quick. What’s interesting to me is what is actually happening is more along the lines of what NeverTrumper David French wrote in his book about potential civil war scenarios, rather than anything I wrote.

Though, I do think a few of my thoughts on how a civil war (or second insurrection) might break out were pretty prescient, if not spot on.