Category: Cold Civil War

Civil War & WW3, Oh My!

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The stand off between the Feds and Texas and the stand off between the US and Iran share one thing in common: they both risk uncontrollable escalation that might lead to some pretty insane things happening.

With the Fed – Texas situation, this is exactly the type of situation that members of the American Far Right have longed for for decades. It doesn’t help, of course, that the Russians are using social media to egg the situation on. One false move or misjudgment by either side and there could be, at least, a severe insurrection, and potentially a secession crisis.

Meanwhile, WW3 could break out if ANOTHER regional war broke out, this time in the Middle East. And such additional destabilizing event on the globe might push the DPRK over the edge and the next thing you know, the nukes are whizzing around.

As I’ve written before, one way to re-elect Joe Biden would be a Black Swan event like WW3 or a Secession Crisis. Hopefully, of course, none of this is going to happen and we can fight Trump politically on the merits.

Even though, of course, if he loses, he might start a civil war by demanding a National Divorce so he doesn’t go to prison.

The Petite Singularity Is Near

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m beginning to believe that a lot of our social problems are being caused by the looming arrival not of a Hard Singularity where we’re uploading or minds into a big database, but a much softer Petite Singularity.

If you combine social media, AI, VR / AR, streaming, biotech and robotics, you definitely have the makings of a transformation in human civilization to the point that the average person can’t catch up. What is the whole “trans” movement, but just the fact that changing genders has becoming affordable to the masses on a medical basis?

It definitely seems as though it won’t be too long before the “transhuman” movement goes mainstream, too. And AI / robot rights. Which, of course, makes one wonder if the next phase of MAGA will be some sort of neo-Luddism.

That is a very big question at the moment going forward.

Anyway. All of this could be moot if The Fourth Turning happens and Western Civilization collapses.

Good times!

Trump’s Proposed Tyrannical Moves Should He Win Won’t Happen In A Vacuum

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate to even contemplate this, but ding-dong Trump is setting himself up for a pretty astonishing turn of events if he wins this year. He really thinks he can go full tyrant on us in 2025 and there not be any political consequences.


At a minimum, he might get (successfully) impeached.

At worst, something wild might happen that might lead him to be…disposed in some way. I have no idea how that would happen — it would be completely stunning if it happened — but I could imagine some combination of a General Strike and a very fed up U.S. Military using the cover of the 14th Amendment causing it to happen.

Or something. Something huge and dramatic that would be a Day The Earth Stood Still level of bonkers.

Of course, that opens the idea that Trump might pick a veep who was so totally and completely unacceptable and bonkers that he / she would be an “insurance policy” against such machinations.

Seems to me that Gen. Mike Flynn would be just the type of person to be such an insurance policy.

I just don’t know what to tell you, folks. We seem to still be on track to late 2024, early 2025 being totally and completely insane on a political basis.

Leave Tay-Tay Alone, MAGA

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to find it very surreal how much hostility there is towards Taylor Swift on the part of the MAGA Right simply because — she wants people to register to vote?

But, here we are, with a wide-range of notable MAGA “thought leaders” screaming at the top of their lungs all sorts of vicious and hateful things about Tay-Tay at very opportunity.

Simply because she wants people to vote.

Very, very strange.

It’s as if MAGA people take the idea of voting as, by definition, a personal offense. They know that the more people vote, the more they lose elections because they simply will note, can not change their policy agenda because of racism and misogyny.

And it seems like it’s only going to get worse as we enter the 2024 political silly season. At this point, I’ll just be glad if we can make it through the election without collapsing into chaos or turning into a MAGA themed autocracy.

It’s Not Even A Good Scenario

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Maybe it’s not so bad that Russian spies and trolls might be reading this blog to get tips — at least they might come up with a post-civil war America scenario better than this one.


This is not at all what would happen to the U.S. If there was some sort of collapse, it would totally be a Red V. Blue situation, not a collapse into regions. And it would be far, far more messy than the map above might have you believe. There would be millions — MILLIONS — of domestic political refugees as people bounced around, look for someone to live that better fit their personal political views.

Anyway. I would suggest the Russians slow their roll with their drooling at the possibility that the US will collapse. It could be that we just turn into an autocracy.

Welp, WW3 Would Be The Type Of ‘Black Swan’ Event That Would Re-Elect Joe Biden

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the reasons why Trump lost in 2020 was something none of us could have predicted in the years leading up to the event — a pandemic. The pandemic — combined with how dumb and lazy Trump is — was enough to jiggle the political dynamic to produce a Trump loss.

As such, we may find ourselves with another such “black swan” event — something akin to WW3.

We already have one major regional war in Europe and a minor one in the Middle East — if the US struck Tehran because of today’s death of three solders by a Iranian proxy group, then, well, all bets are off. Because if, say, Iran used one of the three a-bombs it apparently has access to on, say, Israel, then, yikes, that would so destabilize the globe that soon enough the DPRK and China would probably start lashing out as well.

There would be a rally round the flag affect and, there you go, Biden is re-elected. Of course, if, say, the simmering conflict between Pakistan – India — China also got hot….things might grow rather awkward.

It could be that rather than the US having a civil war / revolution or turning into an America First autocracy, the whole globe just collapses into chaos and…saves American democracy.

It would be surreal.

America’s Foes Are Gunning For Us On Social Media

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On both Twitter and Tik-Tok I’ve seen a lot of what is clearly ‘fight fight fight” rhetoric generated by accounts that are clearly not American. It is beginning to dawn on America’s strategic foes that we could very well implode because of….vibes.

They are hoping to stir up trouble on social media to the point that, say the simmering power struggle between Texas and the Feds could turn into a full blown insurrection or even civil war.

I don’t see how we can stop this particular situation. It’s one of those things where outside forces stirring up trouble are just part of what we have to deal with going forward.

Everything is so fucked up

This Is Nuts

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am still not prepared to believe anything of note is going to happen because of the low-key power struggle between the Feds and Texas, but the news that the Border Patrol Union claims it won’t cut the barbwire at the center of that struggle doesn’t help anything.

And I still am not 100% sure that this means what I think it means.

And, what’s more, I still think Biden is going to let Texas have its fun until he knows one way or another what is going to happen with the immigration deal making its way to the House. If it is, in fact, DOA as Speaker Johnson proposes, then, yeah, things might escalate pretty quick.

But….I’m not prepared to believe that.

I think all of this is a bunch of bluster and it will come to nothing, at least until after Election Day 2024.

Only time will tell, I suppose.

I Don’t Know What To Think About Russian Trolls Reading My Blog To Fuck With America

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I keep getting pings from deep inside of Russia from people reading my dystopian hellscape scenarios about America’s future. It’s clear that it’s not SPIES reading this blog, it’s Russian TROLLS.

Some of the bullshit on social media these days in regards to the stand off between Federal and Texas forces is jaw dropping. It’s just pure and total bullshit. And, yet, here we are, with MAGA rubes lapping it up.

The idea that I might be helping Russian trolls fuck with the minds of my fellow Americans fills me with a great deal of angst. But, alas, there’s not much I can do about it now, I suppose.

Once something is on the Internet, it’s there forever.

It’s so rare for anyone to give a shit about what I have to say about ANYTHING, that I totally didn’t think that all my verbiage about the prospect of a Second American Civil War might catch the attention of America’s enemies.

My bad, as they say.

Why Biden May Be Slow Walking His Response To The Texas Standoff

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

  1. He doesn’t want escalate things.
    It could be that Biden isn’t Federalizing the Texas National Guard — and any other National Guard that gets in his way — because he just doesn’t want to escalate things at the moment.
  2. He doesn’t want to blow up the immigration reform package
    It’s also possible that for similar reasons, he is afraid that if he Federalizes the Texas National Guard that that, by definition, will blow up the immigration reform package that is working its way through Congress at the moment.

    It’s clear, of course, that something’s gotta give sooner rather than later and that there is a lingering risk of an insurrection or even a secession crisis if Biden doesn’t handle things right.

    I also think that the main event — whatever it might be — will happen in late 2024, early 2025 after the 2024 Election happens.