Twitter Liberals Can Sometimes Be Too Cute By Half

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate the MAGA Republican movement with a white hot rage equal to the center of the sun. It’s that rage that has generated the mental and emotional energy necessary to throw myself into writing what I hope to be a six novel project. (No one believes in me other than me, but, lulz. I’ll put a move on you.)

Anyway, the point of this post is, Twitter liberals love to point out the dumb misnomer that “anti-woke” MAGA Republicans say when they say shit like, “There are no pronouns in The Bible.”

We all know what they mean! And the people who are their intended audience know what they mean! This happens all the time on Twitter when Twitter liberals play the “you so dumb” gotcha game with MAGA Republicans who, within the context of their echo chamber, make perfect sense.

I only bring this up because it’s a sign that the two sides are talking past each other, that our politics has finally collapsed to the point that rather than trying to understand each other, we simply make fun of the difference in context. The differences between the two sides is now so extreme that we willfully ignore the obvious explanation for why someone says something that is obviously inaccurate– even to them.

But I think we’re too past the Event Horizon for there to be any understanding. The country is tearing itself apart and either we become and autocracy, have a coup that turns us into a military junta or we have a civil war. There is no middle ground and we’re completely fucked going forward. We’ve collectively given up and the only thing I don’t know is which horrible endgame we’re going through before things are settled again.

‘Something to Cry About’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There continues to be a false equivalency between the soft power of the “woke cancel culture mob” and the rise of MAGA Republicans. This happens, of course, because we are “both sidesing” ourselves into autocracy. We simply can not, will not address the rise of fascism in the United States because fascism is popular.

The idea that the “woke cancel culture mob” is just as bad as what MAGA Republicans want is going to be very quaint when MAGA Republicans start murdering people like me for political reasons en masse. In fact, I would go so far as to say that if we somehow manage to make it to the other side of history and have some sort of Second Reconstruction in the United States that one of the things we’re going to all be the most sheepish about is how much weight we gave to the “woke cancel culture mob.”

Now, let me be clear — there are definitely some illiberal elements to the center-Left and it really is easy to frame all our problems as a battle between the “woke cancel culture mob” that wants to “turn everyone gay” and MAGA Republicans. But, in the end, we have to also accept that the soft power of the woke cancel culture mob in no way compares to the inevitable political violence that will come about when MAGA Republicans either turn the United States into an autocracy or force us into civil war. (There is the third option, of course, of a military junta.)

And, yet, I suppose that such conflation between soft and hard power is inevitable. It goes with how modern American journalism feels absolutely compelled to be “objective” to the point that it’s complicit in the rise of violent fascism.

I believe that in the end, the worst of the woke cancel culture mob will simply burn off as a result of us taking one of the three options I mentioned above. It’s difficult to be worrying about your gender pronouns when things are suddenly far more existential.

Or, to put another way, when push comes to shove, history, as my father would say when I was a child acting up really will give us “something to cry about.”

My Hot Take On The ‘Border Crisis’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When I talk to my Traditionalist relatives — whom I love dearly — it is clear that besides believing in an abstract manner that the “woke cancel culture mob” wants to “turn everyone gay,” the other issue at the forefront of their minds is the “border crisis.”

The “crisis” at the border is an intractable one of a number of reasons and, honestly, I don’t even know that much about it. But here’s a gauzy overview of what I do know and why I think the whole thing is, in a sense, a bunch of racist, bigoted MAGA Republican bullshit.

Ok, so the issue is, MAGA Republicans are obsessed with “securing the border.” And, yet, in large part because of racism, bigotry and Trump, they have staked out a position that is not only extreme but done in bad faith. It’s not like there is anything that Democrats could propose that would make MAGA Republicans happy at this point.

It’s in the vested interest of the Republican Party for there never to be any solution to the border crisis. And what makes this even worse is the problem at the border, in a sense, is the original sin of MAGA Republicans. The influx of people across the southern border touches on a whole host of pet grievances on the part of MAGA Republicans.

There is the issue of modern Americans refusing to do a lot of jobs to the point that there are jobs waiting for undocumented people once they get across the border. There is the issue of there being a white birth dearth to the point that angry white Christian men feel all wiggly and jiggly about their status in a browning of America. And THAT is connected to white educated women simply not being interested in making those sweet, sweet white babies that would help racist MAGA Republicans stay in the majority.

As such MAGA Republicans are operating in bad faith when it comes to the border crisis. They don’t want to solve the problem because they know it’s the path to autocracy and a white Christian ethno state. The border “crisis” simply isn’t as big a deal for Democrats and so this plays into MAGA Republican rage and believe that they can one day seize power and just never let it go.

As I keep saying — we’re fucking doomed. I just don’t see how we don’t endup either with a civil war, an autocracy or a military junta. Get out of the country if you have the means. Otherwise, figure out what you believe in, what you’re willing to suffer for in the real world.

It’s Inevitable That Ron DeSantis Will Be America’s First Autocrat — But For Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The “crisis at the border” is MAGA’s original sin. The fear of the browning of America — more so than anything else — is the thing that juices the MAGA Republican base. And the thing that Twitter liberals fail to realize is DeSantis’ stunt where he sends undocumented people to Blue areas of the country is pretty much a value free thing to do, at least from the point of view of the MAGA Republican base.

There is NO reaction on the part of Blues to DeSantis’ dickhead move with undocumented people that would cause him to stop. The country is now so divided that just the *idea* of him doing such a thing is enough to get the MAGA Republican base excited — no matter what the outcome. As such, DeSantis, much like Trump before him, now can bask in the glow of free earned media.

Remember, 20 years ago, DeSantis would have been just your typical ambitious Republican. But he’s studied Trump’s success and now, here we are. He’s going to be America’s first autocrat. He will, of course, bank to the center as necessary for the general in 2024, but once he’s actually in power…lulz. America’s democracy is so weak at the moment that he will make short work of what’s left of it and he’ll simply be president — or in power in some way — for the rest of his life.

It may be a Constitutional Convention or it could be that he is named Speaker after eight years of being POTUS. And remember, DeSantis is one of a dozen other would-be Republican autocrats who would do the very same thing given the opportunity.

Having said all that, we have to address the issue of the one person who stands in the way of DeSantis and his brass ring of being America’s first autocrat: Donald Trump. He isn’t going anywhere and even if DeSantis manages to become the Republican nominee, there is every reason to believe that Trump will simply go to the Patriot Party — taking his followers with him.

Of course, something I can’t predict might happen to Trump, but at the moment at least, that’s the conundrum that DeSantis finds himself in. His best bet is to put himself in the strongest political position possible so he forces Trump to pick him as his veep. Then DeSantis will be in a prime position to finish the job that Trump is too stupid and too lazy to do.

But there the issue of Trump, unto himself, potentially starting a civil war at some point between now and spring 2025. It’s highly unlikely that such a thing might happen — but the risk is definitely greater than zero. There are any number of scenarios where Trump either starts a civil war early to save his sorry ass or starts one later because Blue states refuse to bend a knee to his autocratic fascism.

The bigger picture is we’re fucking doomed. America isn’t even a democracy anymore, it’s an “anocracy.” We have three endgames before us: autocracy, civil war or military junta. That’s it. No middle ground. No more stable democracy. The two sides are simply too far apart and have stopped talking to each other and when they do talk to each other, they don’t listen.

If you have the means, get a passport and start figuring out where you’re fleeing to. You may never come back to a free America again.

My Hot Take On Dennis Prager

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue with Dennis Prager is he always frames whatever he’s talking about in such a fucking annoying manner that strokes the MAGA base while enraging people like me.

From what I see on Twitter about Prager, he’s just another one of those MAGA “thought leaders” who takes great pains to frame any discussion in a way that leans into the confirmation basis of your typical middle brow MAGA Republican. In a sense, he’s much like Joe Rogan in that respect.

Both men traffic in MAGA Republican outrage porn hidden behind a vague, conflated mentality of aggrievement that MAGA loves to wallow in. Their very argument is bad faith and frame in such a way that when your Traditionalist relative uses one of their talking points while you’re having Thanksgiving dinner it’s very difficult not to grow extremely angry.

And, what’s worse is, all of this bullshit is extremely corrosive. It’s why people in the same family can’t talk about politics anymore. When you have Prager or Rogan getting all bent out of shape about the stupidest shit that they claim is “woke” then there’s not much you can do about it.

If you do try to engage your MAGA Republican relative, then they say the facts you cite are “bogus” or they just get really mad an engage in debate nullification.

The main point is we’re fucked. That people like Dennis Prager get such traction is a very ominous sign. I don’t have any ready answer for you.

Gaming Out An American Military Junta in Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I write a lot about the possibility of autocracy or civil war in late 2024, early 2025. And, yet, there is a third option that I’ve written about some, too: military junta.

How exactly what that happen? Well, it’s still too far to game out, but one possibility would be that Blue States begin the process of leaving the Union and the military finally steps in to kind of cool things down until, maybe, a Constitutional Convention can be called.

The other scenario is, of course, is the U.S. Military is forced to step in because, well, lulz, we have no idea who POTUS is — or, at least, can’t agree using political means who should be POTUS.

I think we have to give the idea of a military junta serious thought because history has shown us that that is often the route that modern democracies go when they finally fail. It happened with the French in the 1960s and it could happen here in a few years.

In my fevered imagination, I could see someone like James Mattis being named “acting POTUS” for a few months while we sort out exactly what we’re going to do about a National Divorce / secession crisis / certification crisis. The U.S. Military is the only remaining institution in America that would have the means to keep the country together if there was a severe political crisis.

And it would make sense, given how respected the U. S. Military is across the political spectrum for them to control the country through some sort of bi-partisan military junta made up of military and political leaders. A military junta might, in the end, be the only thing that stops either civil war or autocracy from happening.

But. And this is a big but — it could be that not even the American military would be able to avoid buckling should the time come. Generally, the officer corp still believes in democracy, while the enlisted are far more likely to support MAGA.

Which reminds me of the coup attempt that Turkey had a few years ago that ultimately did nothing more than allow their autocrat to consolidate power. So, again, I think in the end, America is just going to become an autocracy. Or, to make ourselves feel better, we’re going to pretend we’re a traditional Western democracy when, in fact, everyone and I mean EVERYONE will know that we’re simply another illiberal democracy like Hungary or Turkey.

The only question I have, of course, is — will I cross ICE and endup in a Trump branded concentration camp?

Twitter Liberals Keep Making The Liberal Progressive Case For A National Divorce

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I constantly see Blue Check Twitter liberals thinking out loud about things I’ve been writing about for some time now. What’s so darkly amusing is they pretty much make the liberal progressive case for a National Divorce without even realizing it. What they’re realizing, of course, is something that has been very clear to me for a long time — MAGA Republicans are ascendant and if there’s going to be a civil war it’s going to be because Blues start it, not Reds.

Now, we’re still to far out for me to know exactly how a Second American Civil War might actually play out. And I still don’t think we’re even going to have one. But as long as Trump continues to be a major American political figure, the risk of a modern day American civil war is very, very real.

It could be that by the time late 2024 rolls around, Blue States — probably starting with California — will simply refuse to “bend a knee” to the autocratic, fascist MAGA Republicans how have stolen the 2024 election and there will be a popular ground swell with Blues for Blue States to leave the Union and start their own country. (There is of course, the possibility that there might ultimately be some mission creep as such a possible war progresses and Blue goals would be to “liberate” Trumplandia as well.)

Of course, there is also the possibility that rather than seeing that they’re making the liberal progressive argument for a National Divorce that wealthy Twitter liberals will see these very same arguments as a reason to leave the fucking country.

And, at the moment, I think that’s what’s going to happen, no matter what.

MAGA Republicans steal the 2024 election and, rather than leading any sort of National Divorce, Twitter liberals will simply vote with their feet in pretty astonishing numbers. To the point that Fox News will stop being hysterical about scary brown people and their caravans and start to bitch and complain about a “brain drain” by “unpatriotic liberals.”

But what’s going on in Federal court about Trump stealing Top Secret documents in front a corrupt MAGA hack judge is all part of how the United States is careening towards a very, very dark future. We can’t keep punting this particular crisis down the road forever. Something’s gotta give. And the only question is — autocracy or civil war?

Battle Royale: DeSantis’ Trump Conundrum

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All things considered, Ron DeSantis is going to be America’s first autocrat. He’s Trump without Trump and my Traditionalist relatives are waiting with baited breath to “vote for him three times.” DeSantis is the ideal person to consolidate autocratic power that will ultimately lead to a Constitutional Convention. We’ll wake up in 20 years and President DeSantis will be invading Canada for some autocratic reason.

But then there’s Trump.

He simply will not get out of the way. Trump’s a fighter and even if he’s indicted, he’s still going to run for president. Of course, there are things I can’t predict. But for the time being, it definitely seems as though Trump is running again in 2024.

And, as such, DeSantis finds himself in something of a pickle. He is so close to the brass ring of being America’s autocrat — amazing power and wealth — and yet dingus Trump is in his way. The question is, will he bend a knee to Trump to be his veep or will he charge him directly?

At the moment, I just don’t know. But there’s one thing to remember — if DeSantis somehow gets the nomination, there’s no reason to believe Trump won’t simply bolt and join, say, the Patriot Party. Then DeSantis would still have to compete direction against Trump in a three way race.

So. I don’t know. It could go either way. But we have to accept that the United States is far less stable than we might otherwise believe.

DeSantis’ Dick Move About Undocumented Immigrants Is Ominous

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Besides having an overarching abstract fear of being “canceled” by the “woke cancel culture mob” simply for being conservative, the other pressing issue for a lot of MAGA Republicans is the “border crisis.” This is, in a sense, the original sin of the MAGA Republican movement.

The problem with addressing the alarm that MAGA Republicans have about the border crisis is, well, people like me can’t address the pink MAGA elephant in the room. The reason why MAGA Republicans are so alarmed about the border crisis is, of course, that they’re bigots. But it’s nearly impossible to say that in the course of any debate with a MAGA Republican because they will get really mad and simply engage in debate nullifcation.

As such, there’s no much point in talking about it with them because they a very comfortable, well thought out media narrative that they can fall back upon. If you challenge it in anyway, they just say it’s “bogus” because the information you point them to is just, in their eyes, liberal propaganda. They want “secure borders” — to the point of building a very pointless wall (which isn’t even a wall, but rather a fence) — and there’s absolutely nothing you can say to them that is going to change their mind.

And now we have the added development of several border state Republicans shipping undocumented immigrants to various Blue State places in an effort to remind them of the “crisis” at the border. This is a dick move on their part, but the base loves, loves, loves it so there’s not much to be done about it. It helps these governors secure their fucking racist, bigoted base and that’s that.

If such a fucking dick move isn’t a sign that we’re careening towards either autocracy or civil war between now and spring 2025, I don’t know what does. When states start to turn on each other like this, that’s a very, very bad sign on a macro level.

And, what’s more the “crisis on the border” is probably going to be one of several reasons why Biden will be impeached, should Republicans take the House. The will put the country through yet another extremely divisive impeachment because they want to hurt Biden politically and they want to draw as much attention as possible to their hysterical, bigoted fears about the browning of America.

I honestly don’t know what to tell you. It definitely seems like we’re fucking doomed. Prove me wrong, America.

Time To Retire The ‘Destroys’ Trope In Political Discourse

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the most grating things to appear in American political discourse these days is when someone says someone “destroyed” this or that person with some comment they made. This is so, so very dumb for a number of reasons.

But the biggest reason is this is very frothy 2017 rhetoric. It works on the assumption that anything one might say about a MAGA Republican might change any minds. No matter how much you may “destroy” someone with a comment it just doesn’t change anything.

The two sides believe what they believe to the point that they can’t even agree on what is real. The Left and the Right already have their individual media narratives and talking points and they talk pass each other whenever there is any sort of debate about issues of the day.

There is no middle ground and no one’s mind will be changed no matter how much they “destroy” someone. It’s just silly and misguided at this point. Better to say nothing. Better to accept that the country is rushing towards a seminal moment in its political history when either it has a civil war or turns into an autocracy.

While I suppose there’s a chance of a military junta as well, the most likely outcomes are autocracy or civil war. We need to manage our expectations and stop believing that any sort of making a point will change our fate. MAGA Republicans are so angry, racist and misogynistic that they’ve tuned out any argument they don’t agree with.

And if they do listen to someone who disagrees with them, they get really, really angry. Not that I’m not above getting really, really angry myself when dealing with MAGA people, but at least I feel bad about it afterwards.

Anyway — people need to cool it with the “destroys” trope. Move on. Time to prepare.