Category: The Resistance

The Conventional Wisdom About What A Second American Civil War Would Look Like Is Wrong

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to see where the conventional wisdom by Respected Authors when it comes to a possible Second American Civil War is something like this — if happens, it will be rolling political violence from the MAGA Right who thinks they’re defending “real” America.

I call bullshit. This makes no sense. It seems, in a strange way, to be a certain amount of wishcasting on their part. These Respected Authors just aren’t willing to game out a scenario where the Second American Civil War looks a lot like the first. I still believe that if a 2ACW happens — which I don’t think it will — it will happen in late 2024, early 2025 when Blue States refuse to “bend a knee” to the autocratic fascism of MAGA Republicans who are in the process of stealing the 2024 election.

If it happens, it would happen spontaneously, probably starting with California, and may only be stopped with the swift and severe intervention of the U.S. Military in the guise of a military junta. There is, of course, the possibility that it will be Trump who demands that Red States leave the Union earlier than this scenario in an effort to save his sorry ass.

I guess the point of all of this is — I just don’t see any civil war happening in the way that the alleged experts say it will. It just doesn’t make any sense. They’re working on the assumption that MAGA Republicans will decide, spontaneously, to start blowing shit up.

But that just doesn’t make any sense unless Trump on a personal basis, goes transactional. MAGA Republicans are politically ascendant and, in the end, all they have to do is win ONE election and that’s all she wrote — we’re an autocracy.

If you think about who has something to lose in our current political climate, it’s not Reds, but Blues. And, as such, if we’re going to have another civil war — which I don’t think we will –but if we do, it’s going to be when Blue States decide to leave the Union as part of some sort of Certification Crisis in late 2024, early 2025.

I’m always wrong, however. So, who knows. I still think the most logical endgame is we simply become an autocracy and in about 20 years one a political basis the United States and Russia will be clones.

The Conditions Exist For a Second American Civil War Between Now & Spring 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

From my occasional political discussions with my Traditionalist relatives — whom I love dearly — it seems clear to me that the conditions already exist for a Second American Civil War. One of my relatives believe that to be a Democrat is, by definition, to be essentially a Godless Satan worshiper while the other one throws around the blood libel of “groomer” against the center-Left in a very cavalier fashion. So, in my little corner of the political world, people in my immediate family are ready to — in an abstract manner — support political violence against liberals.

Now, on a practical basis, I doubt they would actually support political violence. In fact, that might even be one of the few “red lines” they actually have — they will be Good Germans until there is actual blood in the streets. But if you have to wait until there is actual political violence before you object to the the policy agenda of MAGA, well, the whole country has a serious problem.

One of the indications that I have that the conditions exist for a civil war is how my Traditionalist relatives are enraged by the soft power of the center-Left. They are willing to burn the whole country to the ground using the *hard power* of MAGA to crush the *soft power* of the “woke cancel culture mob.” In essence, they’re willing to give up their birth right of American democracy because they think liberals are annoying.

But this is just one of a number of different conditions that exist that indicate we’re very ripe for a civil war at some point between now and, say, spring 2025. The two sides can no longer agree on the facts of any subject. If I point out this or that thing that Trump did that hurts the conservative movement, then it’s “bogus” because it comes from a media outlet that is liberal. My Traditionalist relatives suggest that “maybe we need a unbiased fact checker we can all agree on.”

We have that, it’s called Snopes and all MAGA conservatives do is spend all their time working the refs, saying Snopes is wrong for this or that reason. The facts simply are not on the side of MAGA Republicans, but because they’re so enraged by the browning of America, the growing economic independence of women and a growing support for gay rights….well, they willfully ignore the facts.

Or, put another way, the United States is more and more two nations, one Red one Blue who simply do not agree on not only what it means to be American but what basic fucking facts are. And if you’re so polarized that you can’t even agree on facts then my fears about autocracy or civil war in the United States starting around 2025 become very real.

The remaining question is, of course, is there going to be a civil war? While the conditions exist for one, I just don’t think one is going to happen. I say this because the people who would probably agitate the most for a National Divorce in late 2024, early 2025 — Twitter liberals — are all going to leave the country should the time come.

So, yes, MAGA Republicans will finally end the terror of the “woke cancel culture mob” when they turn the United States into a Russian-style autocracy. I’m poor, so I won’t be able to get out of the country when ICE is weaponized and people like me are put into camps. Then, of course, the OTHER red line for my Traditionalist relatives — the personal — will be crossed and they’re going to have to figure out how to get me out of said camp.

I know that sounds very hysterical at the moment, but form follows function. Once we’re no longer a democracy — or even an anocracy — it’s only going to be a matter of time before MAGA Republicans come after basic freedoms like freedom of speech. And because I will never shut up about how much I fucking hate MAGA — no matter how much my Traditionalist relatives may beg me to do so — they’re going have to get me out of a concentration camp.

What Democratic Forces Can Learn From MAGA Republicans

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the biggest differences between MAGA Republicans and the center-Left is the former has a very simple argument. MAGA Republicans know what they’re for and they are very passionate in articulating it. Of course, there is some murkiness with MAGA New Right rhetoric, but they have no shame and don’t care if they look like hypocritical fools, so lulz.

But, in general, there is a very clear MAGA Republican orthodoxy and, as such, it’s much more simple to articulate and propagate.

As such, I think the center-Left would be wise to boil down what they’re for into something that is far shorter than a long, rambling Substack post. Far too often, the center-Left gets into the weeds of how many different genders their are and the more nuanced elements of feminism.

The United States is now entering a very dangerous political period in its history and we have reached a point where anti fascists need to be clear as to what they believe. While I don’t believe in violence, I do think there should be something akin to “popular Antifa” that would be present the case for anti-fascism and democracy in a far more clear, blunt way than we currently have available.

We may all be Antifa eventually.

But, of course, Antifa is such a loaded term now, that it’s impossible to use. I don’t know what to call it. And no one listens to me, so luz. I just had to get this off my chest because I’m feeling a little annoyed.

We need to realize how dire the situation is and if we want to save American democracy, we need hone our political rhetoric down to something that the average person who isn’t all that interested in which pronouns to use can understand.

I Have To Vent About The Durham Investigation

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have Traditionalist relatives — whom I love dearly — who were all-in with the MAGA Republican talking points about the initial stages of the fishing expedition known as the Durham Investigation. They really believed that Durham found some sort of wide spread Deep State conspiracy against the Trump Administration guided by Hillary Clinton. Or something equally annoying.

John Durham

Anyway, now that it seems as though the Durham Investigation is wrapping up pretty much having found nothing and having wasted a lot of money, I think the whole shitshow is a window into how much trouble the United States is in. People who should otherwise know better — educated, angry white men — have succumb to the siren call of the MAGA New Right. If you lose your Traditionalists to fascism, your democracy is on its last legs.

But here we are, that’s exactly what’s happened.

So, as I keep saying, as part of the 2024 presidential election cycle the United States faces the existential choice of autocracy or civil war. There is no middle ground other, than, say, a military junta maybe. I say this because, by definition, a Republican president means autocracy. It doesn’t matter if it’s Trump, DeSantis or Youngkin.

The spectrum whereby Republicans operate on a policy basis has shifted so far to the Right and is so natively undemocratic that it’s just not possible for American democracy to survive if we have a Republican president. This is just a more extreme version of how George W. Bush ran as a “compassionate conservative,” but, in general, on a practical basis far more conservative than that.

Of course, if someone as bland and vacuous as Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin becomes POTUS, the transition to autocracy will probably be a lot more gradual — but it will happen. The Republican Party, on an institutional basis has grown so radical and hates democracy so much that, lulz, even someone as ostensibly moderate and mediocre as Youngkin would ultimately become America’s first autocrat given any power.

But let me be clear — in the end, America’s fate rests in Trump’s tiny, tiny little hands. He could, unto himself, on a personal basis cause a civil war in a number of different ways. Yet I still wonder if I’m over estimating him — again. He’s just so stupid and so lazy that anything is possible.

‘Can There be Another Civil War in America?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have given this a lot of thought and the central issue when weighing the possibility of a Second American Civil War is how serious we should take all this talk of political violence that we now seem surrounded by. There is a lot of abstract fear about a civil war that is generated more from the absolute partisan divide in the country as opposed to any real risk of a war between Blue and Red actually breaking out.

How much of the chatter about having a 2ACW is simply MAGA Republicans have murdering liberals on the brain and how much is something we should be worried about? Is there a real risk that the most stable democracy in the world could actually implode into civil war?

That is a question I just can’t game out for a number of reasons. One reason is I believe that if there is a real risk of a civil war it’s going to be because Blue States refuse to “bend a knee” fascist MAGA Republicans when they either steal the 2024 election or come in with a presidential policy agenda that is so radical that they can’t bear to stay in the Union anymore.

Logically, there won’t be a civil war because millions of Twitter liberals will vote with their feet and flee the country as it becomes clear that the United States is finally transitioning into an autocracy. As such, the very people would might agitate for a “National Divorce” won’t be around to do it. The United States will simply drift into fascism and 20 years from now we’ll all be wondering why President DeSantis is invading Canada.

And, yet, any discussion of the potential for a 2ACW has to address the cold hard fact that Trump, unto himself, could single handedly start a civil war for a variety of reasons. I — and a lot of other people — are notorious for overestimating Trump’s political acumen, but there is a greater-than-zero-sum chance that Trump could start a civil war to save his sorry ass. Or he could say “the quiet part out loud” in 2024 to such an extent that some Blue States simply can not bend a knee and we have a civil war.

So, I don’t know. I just don’t know if we’re going to have a civil war or not. It’s very possible we might have one, but just not very probable. And in the end I think it’s pretty much up to Trump if we have one or not. He’s such a singular figure in American politics and history that he, himself, could be the additional pressure on the system that causes the whole thing to collapse.

But I think for the time being we would be better worrying about who his veep pick will be because whomever he picks will be America’s first autocrat.

‘Loose Cannon’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The current back and forth between Team Trump and the Justice Department in front of Judge Aileen Cannon is a prime example of why Mueller, She Wrote was wrong for blocking me for being “terribly negative.”

The decades’ long plot on the part of Republicans to corrupt the Federal bench is finally beginning to produce fruit. Judge Cannon is a young MAGA hack who will be on the bench for the next 40 odd years, probably. And no amount of whining on the part of Twitter liberals is going to change that. Which is exactly why she was appointed by Trump in the first place.

As such, we’ve probably gotten all the accountability we’re going to get with Trump. He’s suffered some political damage as result of stealing Top Secret documents, but when it comes to anything on a criminal basis…ha! Trump is above the law to the point that this case is going to bounce around the court system long enough that he will declare for 2024…and the whole thing becomes moot.

MAGA Republicans have accepted this criminal act by Trump — like they have all the other criminal shit he’s done — so, yet again, we just won’t have the will to do anything about Trump on either a criminal or political level. It is because of shit like what’s going on with Judge Cannon that any accusations about me being “terribly negative” just don’t hold up.

I’m right and Mueller, She Wrote is wrong, wrong, wrong.

Trump is above the law. And barring something neither I, nor anyone else, can predict, he’s going to be the 2024 Republican nominee. And there’s a good chance he might win outright, no cheating necessary, even though he will anyway because it’s his nature.

Then either Blue States bend a knee to autocratic, fascist MAGA Republicans or we don’t and we have a civil war. Again — I’m not being “terribly negative.” Just looking at what I can see with my own two eyes and gaming out what seeming to be the most logical outcome.

If I had any money, I would start gaming out how to accommodate our coming dystopian hellscape. But I’m a Poor, so, I don’t know what I’m going to do.

Am I ‘Terribly Negative’ or Just Realistic?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Sometime ago, I was blocked on Twitter by Twitter liberal darling “Mueller, She Wrote” because I both am “terribly negative” and “mischaracterized her work.” I only keep ranting about this because within my echo chamber I keep seeing people commenting on her Tweets and I can’t see them. So I’m reminded all the time that I’m blocked for such a dumb reason.

Which brings me to the question, is she right? Am I “terribly negative?” Well, I would point out that her Twitter account’s name itself has a serious amount of implied and baseless hope to it. I mean, there was a time when Twitter liberals pinned all their hope on the idea that life-long conservative Republican Robert Mueller would save them from Trump. Well, lulz, that didn’t work out, now did it. I think she’s changed her Podcast to “The Daily Beans” or some such, but the point remains — she and people like her thought Mueller was going to save us and he didn’t.

Am I being “terribly negative” to believe that the time for “hope” that the system is going to somehow save us by working is over and the very idea that Trump will ever be held criminally — or even politically accountable — is complete and total bullshit?

I’m not saying give up hope, I’m saying don’t pull all your eggs in the “I hope it will work out” basket. Time to prepare for the worst. And, what’s even more ironic is I feel pretty safe in saying that when what I fear happens, happen, people like Mueller, She Wrote will be the first to leave the country because they have the means to do so, leaving Poors like me to fend for ourselves.

The system is not working. It is not going to save us. And so I don’t think I mischaracterized her work at all. She keeps working on the assumption that the system still works and, by definition, Trump will eventually get caught and stop being a problem. It’s self-evident that that is simply never, ever going to happen. We’re either going to slide into a MAGA-themed autocracy or we’re going to have a civil war.

There is no middle ground. No longer the era for baseless hope. Time to prepare and figure out how you’re going to survive the new post-democratic America. I’ve seen the woman behind Mueller, She Wrote mute other people for some pretty dumb reasons so I don’t feel all THAT bad. Obviously, she’s easily “triggered” and so I have to just accept my fate of being right, but still blocked.

Though I still dream of one day being a success, invited to a cocktail party where she is and laughing in her face so hard I might get kicked out. I boy can dream, can’t he?

Ron DeSantis Would Be America’s First Autocrat — But For Trump Being A Political Monster Who Won’t Get Out of The Way

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be clear — any Republican who becomes POTUS in 2025 will be our first autocrat. There are a at least a dozen would-be MAGA Republican autocrats waiting for Trump to just get the fuck out of the way. He’s served his political and historical purpose, so if he would just retire our inevitable decline into autocracy could happen unabated.

The person who is very, very, very popular with my Traditionalist is Ron DeSantis. And, really, he fits the bill of the person who would be America’s first autocrat. He will become president and we’ll all wake up in 20 years and wonder why he’s still POTUS. Trump has shown DeSantis — and other leading Republicans — how weak the center-Left is and how easy it will be to establish an autocracy based on minority rule. They just need the opportunity and the rest will take care of itself.

By definition, DeSantis as POTUS means the end of 240-odd years of American democracy. It probably won’t happen immediately, but it will happen. And as it does, millions of wealthy liberals will leave the country. This scenario, at least in my mind, is a forgone conclusion. The only thing stopping it from happening is it hasn’t happened yet.

And, yet, there is Donald Trump.

Ron DeSantis

Trump simply will not get out of the way. He’s so lazy and stupid that baring something I can’t predict, even if he wins the 2024 election outright he could still start a civil war just by being himself. Trump is a massive quirk in American political history. Anyone else in his position — ANYONE — would have never have lost the 2020 election and he or she would not be slowly strangling American democracy in their second term.

Maybe something will happen that will force Trump to get out of the way. If that happens, then America will be full of Good Germans who are thankful that the “woke cancel culture mob” has finally be vanquished and America will, at last be “great” again. Whatever the fuck that means.

It will only be when the policies of our new autocratic government become personal that any of America’s Good Germans will feel a red line has been crossed. Of course, by that point it will be too late for people like me who will probably be in an ICE camp somewhere. Wish me luck.

What Can History Teach Us About A Possible Second American Civil War?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a novice student of history and so here some idea about what history can tell us about what a Second American Civil War might be like in the United States should it start in late 2024, early 2025.

Military Junta
What we have to understand is we may never get to the National Divorce part of any severe political crisis that happens as a part of Certification Crisis in late 2024, early 2025. It could be that the U.S. Military will step in and run the country. This is one possible reaction to, say, California deciding to leave the Union when it’s clear that MAGA Republicans have stolen the 2024 election. Of course, California might also leave the Union if Trump’s second term is obviously going to be extremely radical and autocratic.

California
If we actually do have a National Divorce, then whatever California decides to do will be crucial to the course of the war. California might just decide leave the Union and that’s it. It might just want to be its own independent nation and have no more interest in the United States. With the biggest economy and population of the Union what it decides to do will have a great sway on the course of any war. If, when it becomes clear that a National Divorce is going to happen with Blues serving the papers, it’s possible that California may leave the Union in conjunction with a number of other Blue states. That would give Blues a fighting chance of winning the war — if their war aims are just to be their own nation.

Radicalization
One issue that might force the hand of Blue America could be the plight of African Americans in the Deep South. It’s the Deep South where fucking Nazi MAGA people might flip out and start to commit atrocities against African Americans. That would cause a number of different things to happen. One would be something akin to a race war. Also, a huge flow of African Americans out of Trumplandia who would be fleeing persecution. Such events might force the hand of Blue America, causing something akin to mission creep. Blue America’s war aims might shift from simply starting their own nation to actually defeating Trumplandia altogether.

Domestic Political Refugees
It will become clear that we’re going to have a National Divorce when Blues in Red states and Reds in Blue states being to flee en mass because they’re afraid for their personal safety. That will be one of the last things to indicate that things are about to get really, really bad.

Liberal Brain Drain
Another thing that will happen is wealthy liberals, no matter what happens — autocracy or civil war — will flee the country in the millions. This will probably change world culture in a massive way as American liberal ideals began to be pumped into the cultures of nations around the world. If enough wealthy liberals flee the country, this could cause some unexpected places around the world to see a significant change in their culture, politics and economy. I mean, if a few hundred thousand extra American flee to, say, the Philippines because they speak English and there’s a low cost of living, well, that’s going to change a lot there. And it could be that even places like Argentina might befit from an huge influx of wealthy, well educated Americans.

Folks, It’s Not 2017 Anymore — Time For Us To Start Acting Like It

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We were so naïve in the early days of Trumplandia. We thought Trump would be impeached as part of the traditional post-Watergate Washington scandal narrative but, surprise, no.

Trump has warped the American political and judicial systems to the point that he’s above the law and is probably going to be president again in 2025, baring something I can’t predict. As such, we have to stop thinking something or someone is going to save us.

As an aside, I don’t ask for much, but I would just like to be successful enough one day to laugh in the face of the person behind the “Mueller, She Wrote” Twitter account. They say “judge a man by his enemies” and I’ll take that offer when it comes to her. She’s extremely touchy for no reason — easily “trigger,” if you will – and she’s just wrong about the implications of what’s going on with Trump. A lot. Even though she calls me “terribly negative” and someone who mischaracterizes her work, I think she’s all wet.

She really does act like somehow Trump will be held accountable for anything he ever does — however horrible or illegal — and that that is going to “save us.” I hate to break it to her, but I’m not being “terribly negative” I’m just being realistic.

America is careening towards the existential choice of autocracy or civil war in late 2024, early 2025 and no amount of praying to our Mueller candle is going to change that.

Anyway, the point is — we have to begin to prepare for the worst. Twitter liberals like Mueller, She Wrote will just flee the country because they can.. Meanwhile, Poors like me will have to figure out how to avoid being pushed out of a window by an ICE agent after I say the MAGA autocrat — whomever that may turn out to be — is a piece of shit.

Or there’s a civil war and I become one of millions of domestic political refugees.

We have to start to accept that something really bad is hurtling towards America as we speak. The only way we might punt this particular problem down the road again is if a Democrat won in 2024. I just don’t see that being allowed for a variety of reasons. When Republicans believe that, by definition, any election they lose is illegitimate, well, lulz, America’s got a serious problem.

I’m not writing for VOX, so all I got as to what to do about this impending clusterfuck is to figure out what you believe in and what you’re willing to suffer for in the real world. Should the worst happen, there won’t be any narrative and whatever decision you make to keep yourself safe on a personal basis might be wrong, then right, then wrong then right again before it’s all over with.

But the key issue is to stop dicking around with the concept of the Resistance. It’s so weak as to be non existent. There is a chance that before all this is over with that anyone who is anti-MAGA will be forced to call themselves Antifa, just like during the civil war everyone in the north became an abolitionist whether they liked it or not.