Category: The Resistance

Why The United States Will Have a Second Civil War No Later Than January 2025


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are some reasons why we could have a civil war, which apparently a lot of people who show up at this blog want. I’ll do another post as to why we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

My Hot Take On Steve Bannon’s War Room Podcast Episode: ‘Elon Musk Satanic Dreamworld’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve decided to listen to Steve K Bannon’s shitty War Room podcast to get a sense of what we’re up against. The latest episode I’ve listened to on Spotify was interesting for a number of reasons, one of them being how completely fucking bonkers Peter Navarro is. That guy is nuts! Or, at Hope Hicks would say — a hot date.

Peter Navarro believes the Chinese government owes the United States ELVENTIY TRILLIAN DOLLARS. He also, apparently, wants to have a celebrity death match with Dr. Fauci. That, or he wants to hate-fuck him. I can’t quite figure out which one.

Steve K. Bannon

But the thing that shocked me the most was my personal nutty idea of “digital telepathy” made an appearance on the podcast in the third act. To hear someone ELSE say such a bonkers thing in the wild was both unnerving and somewhat validating. Too bad it came out of the mouth of a neo-Luddite.

Speaking of which, I also felt validated by how Bannon is toying with neo-Luddism as a potential political talking point. I have repeatedly written that if Trump was smart — which he isn’t –that he would make common cause with the Far, Far Left and embrace neo-Luddism. But for all his being dumb as a stump, Bannon is kind of his “brain” so I guess it’s possible that at some point Bannon will embrace neo-Luddism.

Overall, Bannon is a very, very bad podcast host because he lies to his guests about having them on again in such a breezy casual manner. And, yet, I guess if you think NewsMax and OANN are liberal shills, then you’ll probably love Bannon’s piece of shit podcast.

The Curious Case Of The Unrung Ding-Dong: Trump As ‘Family Man’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We were so blinded by the astonishing shit-show that was the Trump Era that something you would think would be a gimmie — a massive sex scandal — never happened. I guess Trump was so busy destroying our liberal democracy that he didn’t have time to bang Hope Hicks (the most obvious candidate.)

And, yet, Hitler was faithful to Eva Braun, as best I can recall. And he didn’t drink, just like Trump.

It does make you wonder, though. What would have been the reaction had Trump cheated no just before the election but afterwards? Would it have made any difference at all?

No. I don’t think so.

Our political system is so fucking out of whack that the MAGA New Right would have seen Trump’s in-office cheating of yet more evidence that he is an Alpha Male and, fuck you, soyboy lib. But if a any Democrat did the same thing it would be The End Times.

At this point, I honestly can’t think of anything Trump could possibly do that would cause the 38% of the electorate that constitutes the MAGA New Right base. And, what’s worse, even if you did somehow get rid of Trump, there are a dozen other would-be autocrats in the wings waiting to do what Trump was to stupid to do.

Kristi Noem & Hope Hicks: Corey Lewandowski ‘Bang Bang Sisters?’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

You just can’t make this shit up. I have no idea if Kristi Noem is really having an affair with…ugh…Corey Lewandowski…but I do have some strong opinions about Noem’s potential “bang bang sister,” Hope Hicks.

That girl needs to go to therapy.

Hick’s dating life is a who’s-who of fucking abusive cocksuckers. It’s bad that it would almost be a relief to know that she was at least banging Trump when she wasn’t ironing his pants with him still in them.

Because, let’s be honest — at a minimum, Hick was Trump’s “work wife.” They were dating on an emotional level, if nothing else. I say this because, lulz, Trump is such a fucking piece of shit that it would be out character for him NOT to bang Hope Hicks.

But back to Noem.

I suspect this is all going to be a lulz, if it’s true. If people like Trump can do whatever the fuck they want with their naughty bits, to whomever they want, then, well, why pick on her?

She’s a big old hypocrite, but, then so is the entire Republican Party at this point.

The MAGA New Right’s Anti-Vax Freak Out Over Stephen Colbert on Twitter Was Curious


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m beginning to grow suspicious about why, out of the blue, the MAGA New Right pitched a fucking fit over a pretty mundane Late Show song-and-dance routine about getting vaccinate.

I’m not saying there was some sort of conspiracy, but the earnestness of the MAGA New Right people in their belief that it was all humorless “propaganda” is very odd. Colbert — and others — have been making fun of the vaccine hesitant for some time now. Why freak the fuck now….because of that specific gag?

It’s all very odd.

It makes me wonder if it’s something of a setup. They must know that Colbert will make fun of their freak out on his show. (Or, at least will / should.) Maybe they think they can draw attention to how unfair picking on the unvaccinated is or some sort of similar bullshit?

But, no matter what, the difference in views on the gag definitely lays bare the cold hard fact that American civil society is beginning to fray at the edges to an alarming rate. This is another datapoint that suggest we’re going to be faced with a historic, existential choice no later than January 2025.

When negative polarization grows so white hot and absolute that we can’t even agree about what’s funny — we got a problem.

The MAGA New Right Hot Takes On Colbert Doing A Song & Dance Gag About Getting Vaccinated Are Fucking Bonkers


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I see our current lingering COVID19 pandemic as a national health crisis and, as such, we need all the help we can get to end it. If that means a late night talk show host does a silly song and dance routine about getting vaccinated, so be it.

But, no, the MAGA New Right hot takes were flying hard and fast tonight about how “unfunny” Colbert was for promoting vaccination. It’s shit like that which really hits home that the bolts are popping off the United States at an alarming rate.

If negative polarization has reached such a white hot level that we can’t even agree on what’s funny because we see everything through the lens of politics, something is deeply wrong.

But there’s one thing we have to understand about this difference in senses of humor — it represents a very serious problem. It makes me remember when I went to the MAGA rally in D.C. after Election Day. At some point, I started to get spooked because people were looking at me funny — I think they knew I was live streaming the event and not exactly giving it a thumbs up with my commentary.

I felt…alarmed. Like, under the wrong conditions I might be physically accosted if I stuck around too long. As such, there are real world consequences to this bullshit.

If we can’t even laugh at the same things, then we really are two nations, one Red, one Blue. Now what.

‘Worry’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As of the moment, I believe we’re not going to get the debt ceiling crisis worked out in time and, for the first time, the US is going to default on its debt. Things could change, but the momentum at the moment is definitely towards default.

In other words, we’re fucked.

Pray.

I still doubt there’s going to be a MAGA New Right themed “revolution” anytime soon, but going through a massive global economic crisis of your own making isn’t exactly great for a nation’s stability.

Once you knock out one of the pillars of a stable government — the economy — the entire political system won’t be far behind. I say this, especially since the Republican Party is now a vigilante group that is so wrapped up in negative polarization that it would rather destroy the country than work with Democrats.

I guess what I’m saying is — whatever you would do in preperation of a worst case scenario economic crisis on a personal basis — do that. Now.

‘When is The Second Civil War Starting?’


This is another in my series of answering the searches about a civil war or revolution that bring people to this site. This one was from — you guessed it — Alabama.

Short answer: probably around January 2025, if it happens.

Long Answer: very good question.

That someone in Alabama would casually ask when the Second Civil War is going to start gives you some insight into how bad things are at the moment. But as of right now, I think if we do have a Second Civil War it will happen at some point after Election Day 2024 and before Certification Day in January 2025.

An actual hot civil war in the United States would be only one end of a spectrum of potential outcomes, with the an autocracy being on the other end. And lot depends on what Donald Trump does. If he runs for president again and is the nominee, he is so fucking idiotic and incompetent that he might, just by continuing to be a political force, push the United States into civil war.

But there is always a small chance that well before 2024 – 2025, some unexpected event might start a hot civil war in the United States well before the two sides (or I) expect it. Remember, for it to be a “civil war” you would need a government and troops. If it’s just a bunch of idiots in a rural part of Oregon and that’s it, well, that’s not even a revolution.

You would need some sort of mass attack on the civil Federal authority on a state level for it to be a real “civil war.” And, as such, my best guess is, at the moment, those conditions will be met when the government is at its weakest — between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025.

I will note that I think we’re in a similar situation as about 1857, only things are begin speed up and feel slower because the pace of modern life is so much faster. But, as they say, people go bankrupt gradually then all at once, so it’s possible that my fears about a civil war will be justified a lot sooner than I currently expect.

But something really out of the blue would have to happen for the country to actually have a civil war anytime soon as of late 2021. We’ll see, I guess.

Apostate Republicans Will Lead The Blue States To Victory In The Second American Civil War


by Ender

It’s becoming more and more clear to me that the modern day War Democrats of The Lincoln Project et al will be the leadership of the Blue States if we have a Second American Civil War.

While there are plenty of great center-Left leaders who would rise to the occasion if the shit hit the fan, it’s a tough-as-nails broad like Liz Cheney who will get the fucking job done. I don’t know how it would work, but if we reach a point where the United States is actively attacking itself in a civil war, then principled leadership will rise to the top.

As such, I suspect that ultimately, it won’t be AOC who leads Blue States, but someone like Cheney. There will be endless howls at first from Leftists at such a “betrayal” but when Cheney proves she’s an American Iron Lady they will shut up. I love you, AOC, babe, but you’re still too young, too unfocused and too unserious to get us through a fucking civil war.

U.S. Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) delivers an opening statement during the opening hearing of the U.S. House (Select) Committee investigating the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, on July 27, 2021 at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC. During its first hearing the committee, currently made up of seven Democrats and two Republicans, will hear testimony from law enforcement officers about their experiences while defending the Capitol from the pro-Trump mob on January 6. (Photo by Jim Bourg-Pool/Getty Images)

Cheney, meanwhile, is locked and loaded to destroy the MAGA New Right with everything she’s got.

And it won’t just be Cheney. If things grow existential, most of the Blue State leadership will probably eventually be NeverTrumpers. It will be extremely ironic and probably cause some surreal post-war events as everything snaps back into place, but in the moment of crisis, it will get the job done.

But I’m still being very speculative. It could be that we don’t have a civil war and we simply slip peacefully into autocracy. People like Cheney are either arrested, pushed out a window or exiled and that will be that.

It really could go either way at the moment.

Trump Is The GOP & The GOP Is Trump: Liz Cheney, The Only Way You Get Higher Office Is As The Veep In A Unity Ticket Before A Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely feels as though we’ve reached the end of the beginning when it comes to the Final Countdown. What’s it going to be, American history — autocracy or civil war? At the moment, there are too many known unknowns for me to be able to wargame that out.

So, for the moment, I’m at a loss to tell you what to think of Liz Cheney pretty obviously running for POTUS — as a Republican!

As it stands, people are beginning to wake up to the cold hard fact that we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked. And the only unknown is if we get fucked via fascism or fucked via civil war. That’s it. Those are only two options at this point. (I guess, you could say that maybe, just maybe we might get a military junta, but I doubt it.)

Or, put another way, American politics is now very similar to that of around 1857. We all kinda of know that either Slave Power (MAGA) wins a final victory or we hash it out via a civil war that would be extremely high risk, high reward.

Having said all that, Liz Cheney probably has a better shot of becoming President Harris’ Unity Ticket Veep done out of desperation than she does winning the Republican nomination in 2024.

Republicans are so, on a systemic level, unmoored from the traditional concepts of a party that is associated with a liberal democracy that there is no way in hell she could possibly win the Republican nomination. And if Trump bows out for some reason, Republicans are more likely to pick Gen. Mike Flynn as his successor than Liz Cheney.

Let that sink in.

But for anyone paying attention, things are kind of dark right now. Maybe a lot dark. Because all the macro trends point to The Fourth Turning taking place in, as predicted 2025. We’re so totally fucked. Totally, completely, fucked.

We have to stop getting mad on Twitter. Or making fun of the dumb things that the MAGA New Right says or does. Things have gotten serious and existential if you think of yourself as a small-d democrat.

This is it. The frog is dead.