Category: Tsar-A-Largo

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are the questions I have right now about any potential Russo-Ukrainian Winter War.

1. Why now?
   This is a real mystery. I guess the case could be made that Putin isn’t getting any younger and he wants to seize the crown jewel of a new Russian Empire while he’s still alive, damn the long-term consequences. It helps that he’s not really getting any push back from the West. It could be that Putin has finally lost his fucking mind and he just doesn’t care anymore. It helps that Trump isn’t president anymore because if Putin invaded Ukraine with Trump president in the United States, then the jig would be up about Trump being in Putin’s pocket.
   
2. When exactly will the invasion happen?
   This is a real tricky one. I just don’t know. From what I can glean from Twitter, the real warning sign we have to keep an eye on is when the troops to man all the equipment Putin is putting in place arrive. When those troops arrive, then we’ll know we’re going to the show. Then it will be go time.
   
3. What happens in the 48 hour warning zone?
   There is going to be a window between when Putin decides to invade and when the invasion begins. That is, I think, just the nature of modern warfare. It makes me wonder what will happen in those 48 hours. What will be the reaction of the West? Is there anything they can do? Or do we just watch in horror as Russia prepares to smash across the Ukrainian border?
   
4. What will be the implications of Russians avoiding cities?
   This would probably be a dumb question if I knew anything about military tactics, but it seems as though if the Russians simply avoid cities — other than, say, Kiev, that they’re setting themselves up for a major clusterfuck. Just because the Russians would control the general political area known as “Ukraine,” if the cities aren’t controlled, then they would be a serious source of organize opposition to any Russian occupation. I could the Russians being sucked into a Ukrainian civil war no matter how successful they might otherwise be on the ground.
   
5. How does Russia plan to keep the territory it grabs?
   Any political victory on the part of the Russians in Ukraine — by the government in Kiev suing for peace — would be just the beginning. The West is already sending material to Ukraine and that will only increase once there’s an actual invasion. So, we would be looking at a situation very similar to Afghanistan in the 1980s, only in modern Europe and a far bigger population. No matter how successful the Russians were in the first part of a Russo-Ukrainian War, they are going to get bogged down.
   
6. How much territory does Russia plan to take?
   I think this one will be determined by how well the Ukrainians are at fending off the first wave of the invasion. It definitely looks like the Russians are going to come at Kiev from the north in an effort to get the Ukrainians to sue for peace. But even if that was successful, all that is likely to do is cause the Ukrainian government to collapse and a bunch of nationalists will take over who are absolutely determined to drive the Russians out. Things would only get worse for the Russians if they decide to take the entirety of Ukraine. Talk about a clusterfuck! Them going into the more Westernized parts of Ukraine would be a disaster in the making. And Russia bumping up against the border of NATO states would freak the entirety of Western Europe out, no matter how much the Germans want to stick their heads in the sand.
   
7. What will be the response in the United States?
   I stand by my belief that if there is a general war between Russia and Ukraine that it will be a nearly 9/11 level event within American domestic politics. The reason why I say this is — those first few days worth of horrific war scenes flooding social media will be enough to scare the shit out of liberal women in the exurbs of Philadelphia who always seem to decide American presidential elections. And, there is a limited amount of oxygen in the American media universe. A media circuit breaker will likely be flipped and for a few days — weeks? — all we’re going to talk about is Ukraine. To the point that the January 6th Committee’s investigation may simply drift out into sea, never to be seen from again. This does, however, bring up the question of how the Republicans will deal with a major war between Russia and Ukraine. The base will follow Trump’s lead in sucking up to Putin, while the Republican Establishment will be hysterical and blame Biden for not being strong enough…in defending democracy, something Republicans clearly don’t believe in anymore.
   
8. Could Trump self-immolate politically if runs around yapping about how Ukraine isn’t even a real country?
   Trump, by definition, is going to embarrass myself when it comes to Ukraine if there’s a war there. He’s going to scream at the top of his longs that Ukraine “isn’t even a real country” to the point that either Republicans tow his line en mass or there’s something akin to a civil war within Republican ranks on the issue of how to address the huge war waging near the heart of Europe. Trump has such absolute control over the Republican Party that I doubt there will be much of a fight. In the end, we will see a surreal flip of political views, with Democrats taking a hard line against Russia and Republicans lulzing it all.
   

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m no expert — I keep getting things wrong about this situation — but from what I can tell from Twitter, it definitely seems like Russia is on the cusp of a major war against Ukraine.

The issue now is, of course, when will it start?

I honestly have no idea. But my current guess is anytime between now and mid-February. We may have about 48 hours notice before go time. But at the moment, Russia is throwing everything it’s got into this particular endeavor. It’s just a matter of when Putin decides to give the go ahead.

One thing I do find interesting is how the Russians plan to avoid cities as part of the invasion. Anyway. I guess we’ll see.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are the three possible invasion paths that the Russians might take should they start a Russo-Ukrainian Winter War. There is something of a time limit — if the Russians don’t make a decision one way or another pretty soon, the spring thaw is going to kick in and they will be faced with a lot of mud and not much territory taken.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m clearly not an expert on either Russia or Ukraine because I keep getting things wrong. But that doesn’t stop me from struggling to understand what the fuck is going on with the two nations at the moment.

Russia continues to build up troops around Ukraine to a level that it makes you think we’re going to have to imagine that Putin isn’t thinking just a simple smash and grab operation, but a general war. The reason why I can’t understand that this may be a real possibility is by every metric Russia could take a huge chunk of Ukraine, but it just couldn’t keep it.

Putin would be flirting with existential disaster long-term because even if the Ukrainian government sued for peace or collapsed the amount of partisans who would take it upon themselves to go to war against the Russian army on a personal level would be enormous.

Long term, Russia, just like with Afghanistan, would have to leave Ukraine to its own devices. I don’t know. I wonder what I’m missing.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m beginning to think I was wrong — AGAIN — to even contemplate Russia invading Ukraine anytime soon. But, I will note in passing that Putin has something of a deadline at the moment if he wants to lean into the symbolism of Christmas Eve – Christmas Day timeframe

The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan on Christmas Eve, 1979. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union officially dissolved at noon on Christmas Day, 1991. So, if Putin wants to change the narrative from “30 years since the end of the Soviet Union” to “Holy shit, the Russians have invaded Ukraine” they need to do it, like RIGHT NOW.

If it were to happen, Something Big would probably begin to happen mid-to-late afternoon EST. If we make it to Christmas Eve evening EST without a major Russian cyber attack against Ukraine or any number of other hostile actions, then, lulz, we’ve passed the “twofer” moment.

After that, it could be anytime between now and either Orthodox Christmas or Orthodox New Year’s that the Russo-Ukrainian War might begin. I’m beginning to think that, thankfully, for the near term, things are going to be a dud.

It may happen, just not immediately.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m still very reluctant to believe a major war between Russia and Ukraine is about to break out, but there are some interesting metrics to look at of late. For me, the chief issue is exactly when that paratrooper drop is supposed to happen today.

If it happens in broad daylight, then, lulz, we can take it at face value.

But if it happens after dark, then I’m going to grow really nervous. And the later is happens at night, the more ominous its meaning would become. Because it would be a lot more difficult to track exactly where the drop happened. So, what if instead of Crimea and just to the east of Donbas, the airdrop was in Ukraine proper and the whole thing is a setup for a full blown invasion tomorrow, Christmas Eve?

There is so much I don’t know. Wouldn’t there be a lot of alarming scurrying be seen around Ukraine as everyone turned their tank on and started racing towards the border? Seems like that, unto itself, would take time. Enough time that it wouldn’t be Christmas Eve, but rather something closer to New Year’s. But what do I know?

All I know is the next 24 to 48 hours are critical. If we can get past that time, then I think we’ve passed an immediate danger. And invasion might still happen, but once you get pass starting a major war on the eve of the 30th anniversary of the end of the Soviet Union, then, lulz. You can pretty much do it anytime you want.

I’m always wrong, so I’m not prepared to say a war is actually going to start anytime soon — if ever — but it is something to keep an eye on for the next few days.