Category: Tsar-A-Largo

It’s Comical How Badly House Trump Screwed Up By Not Striking Before The Election Was Called


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trumplandia, we have a problem. While we are now entering the most dangerous political crisis in American history since the fall of 1860, there is something of note we have to talk about: how badly House Trump screwed up by not striking before the election was called.

I have been ranting about how “autocrats never lose” and this is still the case. And it’s still the case that Trump is an autocrat and, by definition, will “not lose.”

And, yet, now that the election has been called there will be severe consequences for that “not losing.” Trump is going to try to use the bully pulpit of the presidency to do exactly what he could have done before the election was called — frame the post-election battle in a way that the average person won’t mind if he mysteriously “doesn’t lose” like all autocrats.

Now that the election has been called, the average person who doesn’t really pay that much attention to politics is going to be shocked when Trump stages a coup — whatever it may ultimately look like — to stay in power. It’s just not as easy for Maggie Haberman to explain Trump’s coup in hushed tones as a stroke of political genius after the election has been called.

But once the shock of political defeat wears off, Trump is probably going to come roaring back and attempt to use all his usual Stormy Daniels tricks to reframe the debate. Rudy will yell on CNN for an hour on a regular basis. The Right Wing bullshit echo chamber will attempt to bend the mainstream media to their will. You, know, the usual media narrative management that has been so successful for House Trump for five years.

And, yet, now that the political act of the election being called by the media has happened, if they try extra-political methods to stay in power — which they will — there’s going to be a civil war / revolution. But as can be seen in how Republicans handled the RBG SCOTUS opening — they really don’t give a fuck. They are so completely blinded by their MAGA ideology that they are oblivious to how they’re going to destroy the United States — or at least the First Republic — if they “catch the car” of keeping Trump in power.

The country is just too polarized right down the middle 50/50 for them to be able to pull it off now without a lot — A LOT — of people dying tragic, needless deaths. But, sadly, the more difficult it is for them to stage a coup, the more radical they will become. They’re going to grow so hysterical that that, in itself, may be what pushes us into a second civil war / second revolution.

MAGA is such a bunch of easily triggered snowflake crybabies that when the shoe is on the other foot, they’re going to what to blow shit up rather than face the cold, hard, fact that the dear leader is going to have to leave office. Given that Trump is probably going to grow more insane and hysterical himself as well, no good will come of any of this.

Our best case scenario right now is Trump attacks and corrupts every single step between now and January 20th and STILL can’t stay in office. Then he totally flips the fuck out and aggressively salts the earth on his way out, pardening dozens — if not hundreds — of his cronies. He fires everyone he hates — even if he can’t legally do so — and gets FBI director Rudy to frogwalk Biden in an attempt to protect his own sorry ass.

If all else fails, he pardons himself and flies AF1 to Pyongyang where he spends the rest of his life snorting coke off hookers’ assholes and telling Kim Jung Un all our secrets.

That’s our best case scenario.

Worse case scenario is Trump and MAGA single-handed force the issue and everyone has to take sides — even if they don’t want to. Then the United States’ First Republic collapses and we spend a few years killing each other.

There is no narrative. There is no value. We will imbue this particular avoidable tragedy with those elements after the fact in a desperate attempt to make ourselves feel better.

Even Our Best Case Scenarios Suck: Trump’s Coming Stress Test Of The Constitution



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Even our best case scenario in the next three months sucks. Our best case scenario is something, “In the end, after having nearly destroyed the Consutition in a rabid bid to stay in power, Trump pardons himself and flys AF1 to Pyongyang and quits.”

What I mean by this is, Trump has made it clear he’s going to exhaust every possible option before he leaves office. And it’s reasonable to assume that we have a Vote Certification Crisis and a Elector Intimidation Crisis ahead of us. Trump will use violence and the threat of violence make seem as though he has a chance of actually “legally” staying president, when, in fact, it’s simply the usual “autocrats never lose” situation.

This is all the lull before the storm, I’m afraid. Not only do we have to worry about Trump winning one of his bullshit lawsuits at SCOTUS, we have to worry about Trump starting a war to Wag The Dog or naming Rudy FBI director so he can frogwalk Joe Biden in an attempt to negotiate his own escape from justice.

And all that’s the best case scenario.

The worst case scenario is someone blows something up and TrumpBarr use that as excuse to invoke the Insurrection Act and take “total control.” In essence, there’s something akin to a coup and with that I simply can’t even map out an endgame.

Anything from Trump mysteriously staying power to a actual civil war / revolution could happen should such things happen. As I mentioned, it’s possible that Trump could really flip his lid and start a war with the DPRK or Iran for the sole purpose of making us so distracted that he can be a War President and mysteriously, again, never leave office.

I hope I’m wrong. I often am. But we have to take the possibility of such bullshit seriously.

I Have Every Reason To Believe Trump Is Going To Destroy The United States Via A Coup


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s some serious silence going on. Republicans aren’t acting like they accept that Trump lost. And the infrastructure exists for TrumpBarr to stage an attempted court coup. All that has to happen is just one of their bullshit lawsuits go to SCOTUS and successfully narrow or redefine what a “legal ballot” is and, well, that’s it — a coup happens and then a civil war or revolution.

As an aside, it’s darkly humorous how many people from Red States — especially Southern Red States — show up in my Webstats whenever I rant about the possibility of the United States descending into civil war. It’s pretty obvious that a lot of Red State people are actually looking forward to a civil war. Why this would be the case is beyond me. As I have repeatedly ranted about — Blue States (once they get their act together) are in a far better military position than Red States.

But anyway, the point is — we are now potentially living through a 2020 version of what happened immediately after Lincoln won the 1860 election. Southern (Red) States are in shock. They never expected Biden — or Lincoln — to win and now they’re weighing their options.

Republicans are so blinded by ideology and negative polarization that they are barreling towards “catching the car” in the courts with total disregard to what happens if they are successful. Now that the election has been called, they’ve lost an enormous political advantage. They blew it. If they had struck before the election was called, then they probably would have had a 50-50 shot of “not losing” the election.

But now, if they strike and win in the courts, things are going to get very violent, very quickly. So violent that Trump will be looked back upon as the man personally responsible for the destruction of the American First Republic. The country will implode into civil war and or revolution and there will be no going back. And, in fact, there’s a chance that when all is said and done there will be two nations — Trumplandia and the rump United States.

It’s going to be horrific if it any of this happens. I’m notorious for being wrong of late, but Trump is a deranged moronic fascist autocrat with the entire Republican Party willing to back him up no matter what. They just don’t care. They want as much power as they can possibly obtain and if that means destroying any semblance of democracy in America, then cry more lib.

Really, the reason why I’m growing so nervous is the silence of the Republican Party. This is not normal. A series of things have to happen before Biden is sworn in, so if it’s not attacking and corrupting the certification of votes in state legislatures, then it will be Trump doxing the human Electors who will actually vote for he or Biden.

He will “joke” that they need to “respect the 2nd Amendment” and before you know it, mobs of MAGA fucktards show up at their homes and threaten to kill their family if they don’t change their vote and vote for Trump.

I’m not kidding. This may very well happen.

Autocrats never lose, as they say. I will suggest, however, that when the history of the Second American Republic is written, the fact that we finally called the election may be of far more historical significance than we realize right now.

‘Legal’ Votes & A Potential Court Coup


Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be clear — this is nothing more than me attempting to make concrete my lingering abstract fears that since “autocrats never lose,” TrumpBarr will somehow stage a coup in the courts.

Republicans have every reason to believe they will be successful, even though at this late date if they were, they pretty much would cause a civil war or a revolution. The reason is — they’ve lost politically. So any extra-political attempt on their part to win the election would be seen, rightfully, as nothing less than a coup.

But they were willing to rush the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett for this very reason. They honestly no longer believe in liberal democracy and at this point see it as just an obstacle. There’s a reason why most of the Republican Party has been quiet about the political win of Biden — they are seriously willing to attempt to win the election in the courts.

In fact, I would suggest that the only thing standing in the way of them achieving that goal (at least initially) is Trump is a very incompetent moron. But this is what they’re going to do — they’re going to attack the election from the “legal vote” point of view. They want SCOTUS to redefine what a “legal” vote is to such an extent that should their court coup be successful, they can use it as a talking point after the fact.

They will tell 48% of the electorate that listens to them that we’re not a democracy, we’re a Constitutional Republic and, as such, “legally” Trump is president and fuck you libs. The thing Republicans are wilfully oblivious to is how all of this would not happen in a political vacuum.

There will be severe consequences for everyone involved if they “win” (not lose) the election in the courts. That’s why calling the election was such a crucial step. Biden has won on a political level and, as such, any extra-political actions on the part of TrumpBarr-MAGA-Qanon to facilitate a Trump coup will spark a series of events that Republicans won’t be able to control.

The Big Ugly, as I call it, will happen.

Pretty much the entire country will go tits up and there will be no obvious endgame. There will be significant political violence up to and including something that will be a civil war or revolution.

But Republicans don’t care. They really don’t care. All they see is an opportunity to stay in power. So, they’re willing to go full autocrat to meet those ends.

I hope I’m wrong. I really do. But it’s definitely something to think about.

Full Speed Ahead With The Novel


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, now that the Biden Era has begun (at least on a political level) I’m going to throw myself into the novel. I hope to finish a really strong first draft no later than, say, my birthday. I’m going to read, write and develop as fast as I can to wrap up the first book of the two book story very, very quickly.

The concept is really strong. And, at this point, my two fears are that there may be a coup on the part of House Trump and the context of the story will be so dramatically different by the time it comes out that it might seem dated.

And, yet, the story itself is so strong that I feel confident it it’s Trump Era elements — which were all structural and subtext in nature — won’t feel too dated. You can honestly read the novel as just a good story. It’s not meant to be preachy.

Just a pulpy, fast read.

So, we’ll see.

A Very American Coup at This Late Date?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, we can all take a deep breath and relax for a moment. On a political level, we’re officially in a new era — the Biden Era. But it ain’t over yet. We have three months of not only Trump having zero accountability, but his continued craven desire to stay in office and an entire Republican Party willing to facilitate those desires.

We’ve officially gone past the point of no return — any extra-political attempt on the part of Trump to stay in power will be seen for what it is: a coup. Or, put another way, while Republicans have shown a willingness to destroy every aspect of our liberal democracy to stay in power if they start fucking with the election at this late date there will be severe, historical political consequences. Maybe even existential for the modern Republican Party.

There are plenty — plenty — absolute worst case scenarios one could imagine in the coming days. Everything from the Republicans figuring out a way to get SCOTUS to define “legal” votes so narrowly that Trump “wins” (doesn’t lose) to Trump doxing individual Electors on Twitter. The list goes on.

I think the thing we have to really appreciate is Trump is in shock right now. And once that shock wears off, he may freak the fuck out and go full autocrat on us in an effort to stay in power no matter what. I thought he might have the wherewithal to do that before the election was officially called, but I guess we were lucky. His incompetent delusional nature was simply stronger than his autocratic nature.

So, in a sense, relative to what a more competent autocrat would do — he blew it.

But once the shock wears off, it’s very possible Trump will go full autocrat with the full support of Interior Minister Barr. He really could dox individual Electors on Twitter in hopes of getting them to vote for him. That could really happen. Or he might offer to bribe them. I mean, the man has absolutely no accountability at this point, what we going to do? Impeach him? Use the 25 Amendment? All he — and the Republican Party — cares about is power.

Once he is sworn in again — no matter how he gets to do it — I doubt there would be enough votes to convict him in the Senate. Let that sink in for a moment.

Yet I, to date, have been proven very, very wrong. So wrong, in fact, that you probably should aggressively ignore anything I have to say about modern politics. I have, however, repeatedly said that all my pontificating is simply my very conspicuous way of making my abstract fears concrete and, as such, more manageable

It’s possible that Trump will fold and everything will work out. But I am concerned at the silence of the vast majority of the Republican Party. It’s as if they’re waiting to see what Trump does. If he goes the full autocrat route, they are going to fully support him and, as such a coup then civil war is almost certain to happen.

We’ve just gone too far. Any attempt to change the definition of “legal” votes by the Republicans at SCOTUS will probably be successful. But as they say, what happens when the dog catches the car? The same thing would happen to Republicans — they would get what they wanted, but they would get what they wanted. The cost of “catching the car” might on a immediate level make them happy, but almost immediately they would face a violent reaction.

I would go so far as to say the U.S. Military might weigh the politics of the situation and tell the Republicans to fuck off. But that’s really pushing it. I have no idea. If Republicans staged a coup in the courts (or the Electoral College) I honestly don’t know what the endgame would be.

Post-Election Night 2020 Observations


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

1. The Election Needs To Be Called NOW
Every moment the media narrative leaves any question about who the president is going to be, Trump gains in strength. So, in the end, when there’s a coup, that’s the thing we look back upon with regret.
2. Violence Is Coming
No matter who wins or when we call the election, there is going to be political violence, probably a lot of it. So much so that Trump will get his long-sought after Reichstag Fire. All we can do at this point is just try to manage what our reaction to it is.
3. We’re Not Prepared
The hard it is for TrumpBarr to use media narrative management to stay in office, the more insane TrumpBarr will become. My guess is before it’s over with, Trump is going to dox Electors on Twitter in hopes of intimidating them into voting for him.
4. Our Fate Is In Trump’s Hands
Trump has not only his fate — but the fate of the United States and potentially the entire human race in his hands at this point. He could single-handedly destroy the United States and, as such, destroy the post-World War 2 liberal order and cause, well, the end of the human race
5. Expect The Unexpected
Between now and January 20th, we’re likely to see a number of significant holy shit moments in quick succession. Everything from a coup, to a counter-coup to Trump fleeing the country to Biden being arrested by FBI Director Rudy. All I can say is it’s up to us what happens.


A Second American Civil War May Be Inevitable


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Everything seems pretty calm right now, but for one thing — we don’t offically know who won. It’s possible that the moment we do know who won, two things will happen at the same instant — half the country will freak out with joy and half the country will freak out in rage.

Those two things happening at the same time do not make for a stable country.

And, what’s worse, it’s easy to imagine something pretty unexpected — a coordinated series of explosions across the country by far Right groups. I could even see the far Right’s first strike being a series of important assassinations of Democratic leaders. Anything they could do to push the particular situation out of the realm of politics and into simple violence.

If they did such a thing, it’s possible the next step would be two fold. One, a mob of angry New Yorkers might “take” Trump Tower (and Fox News.) Two, the political violence on the ground might grow so significant that we would see a consolidation of sides as there was a rush of domestic political refugees.

This doesn’t even begin to factor in the possibility of some sort of coup on the part of TrumpBarr. There are a wide range of options for TrumpBarr on that front. One of them being TrumpBarr uses any violence — even violence on the part of their supporters — to invoke the Insurrection Act to take “total control.” Trump is a moronic coward, but his supporters may decide to press the issue and he will see this as an opportunity.

I’m definitely not advocating any of this, but I don’t think we appricate the absolute devotion to The Dear Leader that MAGA-Qanon people have and the passions that the election has stirred up.

Maybe I’m wrong. I hope I’m wrong — I often am.

It’s just something to think about going forward.

The Future Of Hollywood in Autocratic America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is now an autocracy. It’s obvious that the Trumplandia infection gone septic. Because of white identity politics, about 50% of the population is so afraid of being “canceled” — or are seriously greedy fucks – that they would rather end 240 years of liberal democracy than risk giving away power to the browning of America or women with sexual agency.

But, is becoming a common refrain for me, none of this is going to happen in a vacuum. As TrumpBarr begin to strengthen their grip on America in an practical fashion — probably by weaponizing the already existing ICE infrastructure — this is going to give creative types something they thrive on: a limit. Art has to have limits so they can be toyed with, almost crossed and generally fucked with. Artists need something to make them angry and if they know speaking ill of the autocrat is a big no-no, then, of course, that’s the one thing they’re going to want to do.

I know for me, at least, that my rage against the Trump Administration has fueled the two years of hard work necessary to get me this far with the allegorical thriller I’m working on. (But it’s not Network — it’s not nearly as allegorical as maybe it should be given how aggressive ICE will become soon enough.)

It’s at least possible that once the shouting’s over and Trump’s court coup is successful, that 50% of the American population is going to need a cathartic release. As such, the entire American entertainment industry might be revolutionized. (But this in context — Hollywood may move somewhere like Perth before it’s over with if Trump puts the squeeze on studio executives.)

The point is — if nothing else, a lot of angry art might begin to grow very popular. We might, just might see the return of punk or rock music. The gritty movies like we had in the early 1970s might grow more popular. There might be extremes — the serious movies will grow darker and the funny movies more funny.

They will all have a point, though — attacking the autocrat without crossing the line so everyone gets arrested and thrown into an ICE camp.

No Fate But What We Make –‘Autocracy or The Big Ugly’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m actively tuning out of what’s going on right now with the election. If I could, I would be “The Man In The High Castle.” For various reasons, I can’t escape the events of the outside world seeping into my little writing cocoon that I’ve managed to establish overnight.

So, here’s what’s going on in my view.

I was right — autocrats never lose. The conditions that allowed Trump to win in the first place are simply too powerful. The descent into autocracy is complete. It happened right before our eyes over the last four years. We should have been tipped off about this inevitably by we could never muster up the political will to do anything about Trump, no matter how bad he got.

The bad guys have won. If you follow the idea of “form follows function,” the next thing that will happen once Trump steals the election at SCOTUS will be a swift consolidation of power. Using the threat of revoking broadcast licensing, the entire media world will be purged. And the entire intelligence infrastructure will be purged of the “deep state” as well.

As some point, very soon, Trump is going to start tweeting about how the budget deficit is too big and we ABSOLUTELY have to past a balance budget amendment. But we have to call a Constitutional Convention to do it. The same dynamic we’ve seen the last four years will happen. He’ll get his Constitutional Convention and because it will be made up of MAGA sycophants, they will go rouge and pass a “Second Bill of Rights,” which is, in fact, something akin to American Enabling Acts.

Trump will also leave NATO and form some sort of autocratic alliance with Russia, Turkey, Hungry, (rump) England and the Philippines. The entire post-world war two liberal order will come crashing down and everything will be rearranged. This will probably be sold to the American public — and reluctant Republicans — as being forced upon us because of the rise of China.

All this happens a lot quicker than you might think, especially if TrumpBarr have to fight to steal the election. The more difficult it is for them to win, or “not lose,” the more radical they will become. This is doubly so if there is any violence associated with either their coup in the courts or their final consolidation of power.

TrumpBarr will take “total control” by invoking the Insurrection Act.

Now, that’s what I think is going to happen. But there is, at least in the abstract, another possibility. I serious doubt this is going to happen because our autocratic infection has gone septic — our liberal democracy is dead and we just don’t have it in us to do what would be required to actually force #MoscowMitch to take notice.

In fact, the only thing that makes me think there is a greater than zero sum chance this other option might happen is, well, Trump is a fucking incompetent moron. Even with the help of Interior Minister Barr, it’s possible that because of the passions of the election and how the country is split pretty much 50 / 50 that, well, the suffer The Big Ugly.

So, really, the absolute worst case scenario that I’ve been ranting about for months now might come true — the United States may buckle. We may have something akin to a civil war / revolution for no other reason than Trump is now a caged rat who will do anything — even destroy the country — to prevent himself from going to prison post-election.

These two options are on something of a continuum from autocracy to The Big Ugly. In the middle would be something along the lines of an extreme 2000 outcome where the center-Left knows they got screwed over, they’re peaceful and the whole issue of what happened will get throw into the memory hole along with the Iraq War.

Or, put another way, something would have to change in a rather abrupt fashion for Trump not to “not lose” via SCOTUS. I would suggest keep an eye on Trump Tower. If passions grow so bad in the country that a mob of angry New Yorker’s take Trump Tower and gut it, then, well, the Big Ugly is here. Or be prepared for several Timothy McVeigh in Oklahoma City type events to happen across the country by the far Right. Something, anything that would break the seal on political violence. Something along the lines of John Brown’s attack on Harper’s Ferry.

But such events are very abstract. I’m not advocating any of that — Jesus Christ — I’m just, in an abstract fashion, giving you some sense of how you would know our inevitable march into a Russian style autocratic managed democracy might take a rather sudden left turn.

I just can’t see that happening, though. It’s over, folks. We’re an autocracy. And, in real terms, given how weak the opposition to Trump is — and how incompetent he is — it’s possible that Trump’s final consolidation will be far more gradual than I imagine. We’ll just wake up at some point in 2023 and realize we had a chance to prevent the dystopia we now live in and we blew it — in more ways than one.

Again, I’m not advocating any type of Big Ugly. That’s not my scene. I just want to finish my allegorical novel about the Trump Era and see if I can sell it. That’s all I want. Live long and prosper, folks.