Tag: American Ancien Regime

MAGA’s Counter-Revolution Of 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s possible that we’ll look upon the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago as the moment the United States began the final sequence of events that either led to autocracy or civil war in late 2024, early 2025. The issue is, I keep hearing respected people within my center-Left echo chamber come so close to understanding the gravity of the situation, only to pull away at the last second.

I’ve heard people ranging from the participants of Deep State Radio podcast to the Pod Save America crew all sort of say, “Well, if this isn’t the end of MAGA, we’re all in a lot of trouble.”

And that’s the crux of the situation.

Barring a severe 9/11 type tragedy that can be directly pinned on MAGA, the rancid, racist MAGA movement isn’t going anywhere. As such, we have to prepare for something nothing short of a political apocalypse. I keep saying — we have a spectrum of things that may happen — on one end you have a civil war and on the other end you have A Very American Autocracy.

And the more the system tries to work, the more radical MAGA becomes and the more likely that whenever they do gain power again that our choice is going to be even more stark — autocracy or civil war.

Now, let’s talk about the Nazis. I’m reading a book about their rise to power in Germany and going into the early 1930s, the Nazis still had to work out exactly what their vision was for the German state. There was sort of the NATIONAL Socialists and the National SOCIALISTS. I haven’t gotten to this exact part of the book yet, but as I recall, the SA wanted a more radical interpretation of Nazism, while Hitler wanted something that could fit within the traditional conservative tradition in Germany.

Anyway, Hitler won this particular power struggle. And it makes me wonder if MAGA, in the end, is going to have a similar situation on its hands. The nightmare scenario is, of course, that Trump grows not only extremely toxic but extremely radicalized by the long arm of the law finally reaching him and when he has the opportunity again he burns the country to the ground. Or, once we become a MAGA autocracy, we lurch into autocratic state a lot closer to Nazi Germany far faster than I might otherwise predict.

But if something happens to Trump and it’s, say, Ron DeSantis who becomes our new MAGA overlord, I think it’s safe to say that our transition into A Very American Autocracy will be more gradual and gentle so there won’t be any chance for Blues to organize any real-world Antifa or secessionist drive.

Yet, like I said, Trump is so deranged and holds such absolute power over the MAGA base that there could very well be something akin to a MAGA counter-revolution around 2025. They literally could end the FBI as we know it and turn it not into the American gestapo, but something a lot closer to the SS. We would become Fortress America and some of Trump’s more radical foreign policy dreams would become a reality. Which, would, in turn, cause WW3.

Or, put another way, Trump is far, far more dangerous than we realize. Things are so uncertain at this point, though, that I can’t game things out. It really could go any number of different ways. The most radical is Trump is re-elected and pushes through a Hyper-MAGA agenda, which, in turn galvanizes the Blues to the point that there’s a civil war. Or there’s a civil war starting in late 2024 when it becomes clear MAGA is going to brazenly steal the election. Or someone like DeSantis is the Republican nominee and we just kind of gradually drift into autocracy.

Or, Trump becomes POTUS again in 2025, but it’s not until his successor that we really see an attempt to establish Trumplandia. I still think Gen. Mike Flynn might be Trump’s veep choice.

Anyway, we’re officially in the political danger zone. Anything could happen at this point, and probably will.

American Anocracy In The Prelude To Stochastic Terrorism

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I fear that our anocracy has officially entered its “Stochastic Terrorism” phase. Such violence is when a powerful group in your society goes after another group so much and so publicly that it’s inevitable that someone, somewhere is going to hurt them. Think violence against Jews right before the Nazis actually had the levers of state at their disposal.

So, it seems pretty clear to me that at any moment we’re going to have a significant uptick in political violence. But not just general political violence, violence directed at trans people. Or Jews. Or pick a group that the MAGA New Right doesn’t like. And it could be that they go after FBI agents and judges.

But the point is — our anocracy is growing ever more unstable. And as I keep saying, it’s all going to come to a head in late 2024, early 2025. We’re either going to have a civil war at that point, or we’re going to become an autocracy. At the moment, I honestly don’t know which direction we’re going to go.

Stay tuned.

I Guess Trump Escapes Justice Again

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I honestly thought, for a few hours, that Trump stealing Top Secret documents might be The Thing that mortally wounded that malignant dingus on a political basis. But as of right now, it seems as though this is going to go the exact same route that all of Trump’s other scandals have gone.

Something Big and Bad happens
We all freak out that Trump did it
For a brief moment, we think we “Got Him”
MAGA Talking Points Emerge
We’re too divided for any consensus.
Trump escapes
Repeat

So, for the moment, I believe that I need to go back to working on my novels and reading up on the rise of Nazism in 1930s Germany. Trump being investigated for violating the Espionage Act will be thrown onto the list of Bad Things that Trump Has Done and…then promptly forgotten.

Even if Trump is indicted, he will just wrap himself around it so he can play the martyr.

In short, we’re just as doomed as we were before all of this started. Oh well. Wake me up when we decide if we’re going to have a civil war or turn into autocracy. Otherwise, I have six (!) novels to develop and write before I drop dead.

The Latest ‘Powers That Be:’ Holy Shit, Did This Podcast Age Poorly

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, I’m a notable idiot. I screw up a lot. I get things wrong because I’m too lazy to look them up. In short, I often live up to my reputation as a “failed reporter.” And, yet, when I listened to the above podcast where the interlocutors got REALLY EXCITED about how, essentially, it was a big screw up to raid Mar-a-Lago….I was taken aback. Something felt off.

Some of it was how the implication of the conversation was that Trump was “back in the game” and there was absolutely no downside to any of this. It definitely felt to me as if the two people talking thought it was settled — Trump was pretty much the president again already.

Then the events of today happened and I found myself thinking about the podcast conversation above. While I’m sure — sure — that Trump can figure out some way to elude justice yet again, I suspect Ron DeSantis feels a little bit better about his chances of being the 2024 Republican nominee now that there is evidence that Trump stole America’s most classified secrets — having to do with nuclear technology!

Anyway. I found the podcast above annoying and presumptuous, to say the least.

How Does Trump Wiggle His Way Out Of Having Top Secret Nuclear Documents At Mar-a-Lago?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As of this writing, Trump has announced on Truth Social that he is going to “encourage” the release of some of the legal documents associated with the FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago.

Ok, at the moment, things look kind of dark for that fucking malignant dingus. But, to date, Trump has always, always, ALWAYS escaped justice. So, how does he do it this time?

Announce
One idea is, if Trump realizes he’s done a Big Boy Crime and he’s in Serious trouble, that he can always simply tell the Republican Establishment to fuck off and announce for 2024, like, NOW. This would blow out the newscycle for 24 hours and, lulz, by the time we get our bearings again Trump will say no matter what he has absolute immunity because he’s running for POTUS.

Fuck You, Lib
In this scenario, he simply shrugs the whole thing off. He knows his base and, in the end, he has Hitler-levels of fidelity from MAGA and all that happens is the two sides difference of opinion about Trump grows more and more sharp and severe. And, in the end, if he gets indicted, he just uses it to fundraise off of and to cry about how he’s being “canceled” by the “woke cancel culture mob” that wants to turn everyone gay. Ugh.

Something Else Happens
Never count Trump out. This is August, after all, and there’s a good chance that something huge could happen that diverts our attention from Trump and his stealing (and selling?) of secrets long enough that he escapes, AGAIN. This is not really a strategy on his part, but it is something that could very well happen at any moment.

Go Transactional
This is probably the darkest of the possible scenarios. Trump, in a panic, freaks out and tells his followers to get violent. The only reason why I say this is even a possibility is — what if this is like the Access Hollywood Tape situation where he didn’t really take it seriously at first…until he did? It could be the same thing. It could be that he’s going to lulz this…and then when he realizes that it’s actually gaining some traction, he freaks out and sicks his “shock troops” on the government. And then, at last, all the people who come to this site looking for information about a Second American Civil War will get their wish.

He Doesn’t Escape
This is the least likely of situations. It’s so unlikely, that I don’t even know what it would look like. Though, I suppose, it might look a lot like what never happened while he was in office — The Pence Pivot. In this case, it would be the DeSantis Pivot or something. After a brief freak out — in silence — on the part of the Republicans, they would pivot to Ron DeSantis as the standard bearer and they would act like Trump is a lulz from the distance past.

Frankenstein’s Monster
In this scenario, the absolute worst happens — at least for Republicans. He both becomes extremely radoactive (no pun intended) and, yet, refuses to go away. In fact, the fact that he’s indicted will only make him more angry and, in his own way, stronger. The base will forgive him for being a fucking traitor and if you throw in how we’re an anocracy not a democracy — he fucks with things to the point that he wins in 2024. His veep will be Gen. Mike Flynn and we all sit around waiting for the Russians to Red Dawn us.

America’s In A Political Crisis With No Ready Endgame

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The reason why I say we’re in a crisis is we still don’t know what documents the FBI found when the raided Mar-a-Lago. All we know is whatever it is, it was bad enough that the Trump is trying to get ahead of it all by saying the FBI “planted” incriminating evidence.

What’s so alarming about all of this is there is no ready endgame — the classic definition of a crisis. There are, however, a few different ways this all might shake out.

One way is there’s a tragedy of some sort that makes the country stand still for a few hours (days?) while we process what has just happened. It would clear the air and we would all take a deep breath and realize maybe some of the Right wing rhetoric was a little too frothy for its own good.

The other, darker endgame would be that there’s a tragedy of some sort and, rather than calming everyone down, it only escalates things. The two sides begin to violently attack each other and we have the first long-term political violence in the Republic’s history since the end of Reconstruction.

The other, more subtle endgame is no endgame — we all feel like we’re racing towards a tragedy….and then nothing happens. The country is on edge for the long term until late 2024, early 2025 when all my dystopian hellscape predictions about a civil war or a transition into autocracy would take place.

Right now — I have no idea which of these endgames we will ultimately see happen.

We’re In A Crisis & Thankfully, Trump Hasn’t Gone Transactional — Yet

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For all the talk by myself and others comparing Trump to Hitler, there’s one way where the two men are very different and that’s how Hitler would handled what’s going on right now. If Herr Hitler was feeling the long arm of the law just about to reach him and the Right was so primed and ready for political violence, he would lean into it.

Hitler at this point would go transactional.

Maybe he wouldn’t say it outloud, but he would tell the SA or SS to go out and knock some heads, or blow some shit up. I suppose the direct analogy would be if Trump told the Proud Boys directly to commit some political violence immediately in an effort to make everyone so mad that it was practically impossible for the government to prosecute him.

Usually, Trump escapes from justice no matter how bad he is. But two things are at play at the moment. One is, there are just so many different investigations into him that it’s almost inevitable that one of them is going to hit pay dirt and really bring Trump closer to justice. Of course, in that instance, Trump can just laugh at all of us by announcing his 2024 bid and scream at the top of his lungs that he’s a poor, poor martyr for the cause. (This, of course, is very much something that Hitler would do in this situation.)

The other is — we still don’t know how bad the Mar-a-Lago situation is. As Stephen Colbert frequently says, with Trump things are always, always far, far worse than you fear. As such, if Trump really was up to something Very Bad with all those classified documents at Mar-a-Lago we really are going to risk maybe not a civil war, but some of that rolling political violence that people like Barbara F. Walter keeps talking about.

The reason is — two absolutes would smash into each other.

The absolute need for the government to protect national security would smash into the absolute need on the part of MAGA to protect the Fuhrer. And if Trump poured gas on this particular situation by going transactional, then we really, really are in a lot of trouble not in late 2024, early 2025, but RIGHT NOW.

The FBI Raid On Mar-A-Lago Has Lurched Us Towards A Dark Fate

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States, the wealthiest, most powerful nation the globe has ever seen is teetering. There’s a good chance that there may be major political violence in the near term. I say this only because you can’t have the Right’s echo chamber spewing violent, vitriolic rhetoric this much without someone, somewhere taking them up on it to prove a point.

And that doesn’t even begin to address the other pink MAGA elephant in the room — the exact reasons why there was a raid in the first place.

So, the first issue — the rhetoric. It definitely seems as though we’ve cross the Rubicon to some extent when it comes to the Right and violence. They definitely seem to be doing everything in their power to get one of their followers to come out of the woodwork and blow something up or hurt someone prominent. Or, put another way — things are really beginning to overheat politically in the United States.

There is going to be some sort of sacrifice or tragedy that will either escalate things or calm things down. I suspect that if my nightmare becomes a reality and there is a major, organized political terrorists attack that, given America’s national personality that it will clear the decks and we’ll all calm down. It could be for a little while, depending on how big the event is.

Or, of course, things only get worse.

It just seems as though the raid may be looked back upon as something the sparked political violence as bad, if not worse than the January 6th Insurrection. And what makes all of this even worse is there is some historical determinism to it — what else was the FBI going to do? Trump, personally, is the reason all of this bullshit is happening because the longer he’s not charged with anything the more the rule of law is collectively eroded in the public’s mind.

Ok, now for the other issue that of what is may have been that the FBI found. Because Trump — yet again — has demanded absolute fidelity from MAGA before they know the full truth, there’s a real chance that we’re going to find out something Really, Really Bad about why the FBI was at Mar-a-Lago and all the MAGA “thought leaders” who have been screaming about the need for Civil War because of the raid are going to look pretty dumb.

Of course, the fact that they keep trying to drum up support for the idea that evidence was “planted” is a tell — there’s a good chance that whatever it is, is so bad that it could really hurt Trump.

Now there’s one last thing to think about — to date, Trump hasn’t gone transactional. He hasn’t told his followers to be violent. He kind of did around January 6th, but what if he, feeling like a caged rat as the hand of justice finally begins to get close goes transactional and tells his supporters to be violent? How likely is it that they would? And what if they did?

Anyway, we’re in a crisis. There’s no obvious endgame. Buckle up.

I May Have Discovered A ‘Red Line’ For Traditionalists That Doesn’t Involve People Like Me Being Snatched Off The Street By ICE At President DeSantis’ Direction

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love my relatives dearly and, in general, it’s always fun to have a political discussion with someone who disagrees with you. That’s supposed be the heart of the politics of a democracy, at least. Until today, I assumed there was only one red line for my Traditionalists relatives — the personal.

That is, me literally being snatched off the street by weaponized ICE at some point after 2025 when President DeSantis finally strangles what’s left of our democracy.

But I was apparently wrong — there’s a Red Line before that: political violence.

Of course, it would have to be MAGA who started the political violence for my Traditionalist relatives to finally, finally be willing to say enough is enough and to maybe (?) make common cause with the center-Left for the sake of the country. If both sides were involved in the violence or if the center-Left did it, then, no, not even political violence would be a Red Line for my Traditionalists relatives because they could just write it off as the woke cancel culture mob being mad because they weren’t able to turn every last person in the world gay.

That’s their sentiment, not mine — I’m just the messenger.

Anyway, I think it’s a testament to the political temperament of Americans when it comes to political violence. Republicans, if they do, in fact, at last freak the fuck out and start murdering people in cold political blood really risk losing the Traditionalist vote.

That would cleave off a sold 18% of their electoral support.

But I think, in practical terms, that if things have gotten so bad in the United States that there’s actual political violence in the street then, lulz….it’s going to be too late by that point. It won’t matter which side Traditionalists are on in real terms. We’d be going to the show.

Political violence has a dynamic all its own and once you let that out of its tube, there’s no fast and hard answers as to where it might stop.

Life During Anocracy: On Edge

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ever since the January 6th Insurrection, the United States has been classified by political scientists as an “anocracy” rather than a democracy. And given how absolutely hysterical the Right has grown with the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago, we’re lurching towards a new, disruptive moment in this new historical and political phase in American history.

I will be shocked — but not surprised — if there’s major political violence at any moment. An terrorist explosion. An organized attempt to “eliminate” any number of high profile government officials. And you know that Fox News, after about 24 hours of “thoughts and prayers,” will come roaring back with talking points about how “America has a mental health crisis.”

They will go right back to be insane and goading their views to hurt people for political reasons.

If my fears come true — remember, I’m almost always wrong — then it would happen in the context of the 2022 midterms and then the 2024 presidential election. I will be flabbergasted if we make it through the 2023 – 2025 timeframe without significant political violence. Like, the worst political violence since the end of the First American Civil War.

It’s going to be very scary and either it’s the starting off point of a National Divorce or it’s how we start our autocratic journey. Because those are our two choices — autocracy or civil war. I suppose you might say we could have some sort of military junta….but that’s just on paper.

The passions of the late 2022 – early 2025 era will just be too much. No more middle ground. Everyone is going to have to pick a side, or a side will be chosen for you. And, in the end, I think we’re just going to slide into autocracy. Poors like me will have to either shut up or get shot in the back of the neck by an ICE agent while wealthy Blues will leave the country en masse for various corners of the globe.

Don’t know what to tell you other than — if you can, get your affairs in order and get the fuck out of the United States. We’re going to either implode (autocracy) or explode (civil war.) And in either situation there’s going to be a Great Reset with WW3 involved.

At least with the Second Civil War option, I suppose there’s a chance that after WW3 happens a few billion people die, if the Good Guys win that Humanity will unite and we’ll be able to address global climate change.

But that’s a big if.