Tag: Autocratic America

Red October: Is Civil War Coming?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If you’re asking the question, “Is civil war coming,” you probably want a pat, easy answer that either makes you feel better or alarms you. Sadly, I can’t predict the future and can’t give you the type of answer you want.

What I can give you is some sense of why it’s at least possible that we might have a civil war in a few years, probably around 2024 – 2025. Here are a few reasons off the top of my head.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

But, back to your question. I don’t know. Yet, a civil war is definitely one of a few options facing us in the next few years. At the moment, I think we have three options: autocracy, civil war or a military junta. One thing I want to make absolutely clear — no one is going to save us.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Nothing is going to change. Nothing will be reformed. There will be no “boom” that fixes our lingering existential problems. Things are only going to get worse. TrumpWorld is above the law on a political basis and always will be. The only way we will get any accountability is if, in fact, we do have a civil war and the Blue States win. Otherwise, we simply slip peacefully into autocracy and that will be that.

I’m just telling you general long-term metrics. No one can predict the future.

Rating Potential Future American Autocrats


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are, in order of increasing severity, are a few of the top contenders for the United States’ first truly autocratic leader.

Chris Christie
Christie is probably the best of a bad situation because he would definitely be something of a holding pattern. It’s extremely unlikely he would get anywhere near being POTUS, but if he did, he would be an autocrat only because he would flex the powers that Trump TRIED to assert, but couldn’t. So, things would be different, but the New Normal would probably be enough within what we’re used to that we wouldn’t even notice that we weren’t a democracy anymore.

Ron DeSantis
The thing about DeSantis is he definitely would take the next step and begin to do some of the darker things I fear. He would weaponize ICE and probably flirt with purging the media. A MAGA New Right Constitutional Convention would definitely be on the table.

Ted Cruz
Cruz is a real asshole and he, again, would turn into an autocrat — given the opportunity — simply because he could. He would lurch the country down a dark, extremely conservative path, greatly increasing the actual power of the presidency as he did. He knows how government works and he would be able to do a lot of shit that Trump was simply too lazy and stupid to pull off.

Donald Trump
The reason why Trump isn’t that low on this list is he’s really, really stupid and really, really lazy. He talks a good game, but when push comes to shove, not even a Brain Trust of fascists will save him. So, Trump is extremely dangerous for two reasons. One, he is so incompetent and stupid that he could force the issue of a civil war upon us, just by being himself. Second, Trump’s real historical purpose, probably, is who he picks to be his veep should he steal the 2024 election without starting a civil war.

Mike Pompeo
Pompeo is worse than Trump because he’s a lot closer to who Trump think he is, but isn’t. Given the opportunity, Pompeo would swiftly move to turn the United States into a traditional autocracy. He would never leave office peacefully for any reason and after about 20 years, we would see him as an American Putin.

Josh Hawley
Again, Hawley is what Trump thinks he is. And he’s even more extreme than Pompeo. You could probably count the American transition into autocracy in weeks and months, not years should he ever become POTUS. I would definitely end up being pushed out of a window by an ICE agent, that’s for sure.

Mike Flynn
It’s easy to imagine Flynn becoming POTUS after being named Trump’s veep. Flynn is the only person more likely to start a civil war just by being himself than Trump. But if he did avoid starting a civil war, things would get very, very dark here, very very quick. Millions of center-Left Americans would leave the country over the course of a generation. That is, of course, unless Flynn made it impossible for the to leave.

Steve Bannon
If Bannon got any type of real leadership position in the United States, I doubt his title would be “President.” I could see Bannon leading some sort of radical American Taliban that would control a huge swath of Trumplandia. Bannon is on dangerous motherfucker.

The Guns Of Red October: What We Have Here Is A Dead Frog


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Darkness has come to America. I say this because it’s pretty obvious that the MAGA New Right has made the cognitive leap necessary for there eventually to be something akin to a Second American Civil War.

In fact, I would even go so far as to propose that much like the Great Powers in the lead up to WW1, MAGA would rather there be a civil war than simply be patient and let the country inevitably transition to autocracy.

“Red October”

That’s who we endup with badshit fucking insane Red October concept which is pretty much just a catch-all for fucking cocksucker MAGA New Right idiots to try to suck their own cocks. Even they don’t know what “Red October” means. It just sounds like some sort of vague idea that there will be a MAGA New Right-themed “revolution” of some sort this October. Ugh. Fucking idiot cocksuckers.

So, there’s a chance that even though it’s pretty clear there’s a decent chance that the United States will peacefully transition into autocracy in the late 2024 – early 2025 timeframe, that MAGA New Right people will go out of their way to ensure there’s a civil war just so they can start murdering people like me in cold blood.

And, as I have said repeatedly, the main issue we face is that autocracy is very popular in the United States. A huge segment of the electorate no longer believes in democracy and is eager for us to become a MAGA New Right autocracy. They will cheer for joy when it arrives, only to regret their decision when the actions of the new regime somehow begin to harm them on a personal basis.

I really wish Twitter liberals would stop the pretense and accept that no one is going to save us — we have to save ourselves. We have to accept that all the usual peaceful means we might use to influence the course of the country — the things we typically call “politics” — are either dead or dying. We have to stop having “hope” that this or that thing will change or be reformed. Some reasons why we might have a civil war:

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

Nothing is going to change and nothing is going to be reformed.

We have to work with what we have at the moment. We have to begin, on a personal level, to prepare for the existential choice of civil war or autocracy that we face around 2025. There are no easy solutions. No “booms” or nasty, pointed Twitter threads that will save us.

Things are dark and going to get darker. What’s your plan?

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

I’ve Become One Of ‘Those’ People


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate to admit it, but I’ve become one of those people. A person who doesn’t challenge myself by interacting with content with people I don’t agree with, but, rather interact with content with people who I agree with in general, but they’re more extreme than I am.

This is bad because I’m turning to my own echo chamber for provocative ideas rather than doing the democratic thing by engaging with people I don’t agree with. I’ve always hated it when someone does that, but I can’t help myself. The reason why this has happened is I just don’t believe any of the arguments of the MAGA New Right are being articulated in good faith.

The MAGA New Right, at its heart, is based on a racist, misogynistic lie.

I just don’t want to interact with such bullshit unless I’m drunk off of rye and can blunt my rage at how idiotic their augments are. So, if I want to challenge myself I turn to a feminist thinker or a notable African American thinker who has a radical agenda that I just want to learn more about.

This is not a way to have a functioning democracy.

The politics of a liberal democracy requires that the center-Left and the center-Right at least attempt to talk to each other, instead of past each other. This one of the macro problems that the country faces at the moment.

I just don’t have any ready answers as to how to fix any of this. This is an example of the macro trends that are all coming to a head in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe.

When you have one party, the Republican Party, that no longer believes in the democratic process and sees it only as means to the end of gaining and keeping power, you have a recipe for disaster.

We Have To Begin Thinking About The Possibility That Trump Is Getting CIA Agents Killed


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I was listening to Pod Save The World recently when they said something strange — a top secret memo was leaked from the CIA saying agents all over the world were being rounded up and killed.

Both elements of this are strange. It’s strange that we would know about such a top secret memo in the first place and it’s strange that CIA agents are apparently dying at an alarming rate.

There are probably of plenty of non-Trump related possible explanations for this happening, but there is also the very real possibility that Trump has something to do with it.

Either because of his actions while in the White House or because of what he’s been up to post-presidency. But it’s one of those things that barring something unexpected, we’ll probably never know. Trump always — ALWAYS — gets away with shit and I question even if anyone would care if we learned he was selling off our on-the-ground intelligence off to the highest bidder in an effort to make a quick buck.

It definitely sounds like something Trump would do. And he’s such a greedy blabbermouth that it’s easy to imagine him agreeing to give Putin a list of all our agents in an effort to prove to Putin how powerful he was.

Trump really is a clear and present danger to American security in the long-term.

The Blue Case for A Second Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, there is no case — woke or otherwise — for a Second Civil War. But, given that the MAGA New Right definitely has grown politically bloodthirsty enough to want one, it’s something we on the liberal-progressive side have to begin to take seriously.

The thing about a civil war is, the MAGA New Right is so much more prepared than anti-MAGA forces are, that the moment we cross that particular Rubicon, things are going to grow very surreal, very quick. The average American who isn’t Very Online doesn’t even realize how dire America’s political straits are other than bonkers screaming at their local school board meeting.

So, should my fears about the 2024 – 2025 timeframe tragically come true, a lot of people are going to be left flat footed. When suddenly it becomes existential if you are Blue or Red on a personal, individual basis, there’s going to mass chaos as people flee their homes for a Blue or Red state that better fits their politics. And it’s going to happen very, very quickly — the event will likely be counted in days, not weeks or months.

The thing about an actual hot civil war in the United States is would be high risk, high reward for the center-Left. Just like with the First Civil War, if the center-Left can just get its act together, we might pass modern equivalent of the 13th, 14th and 15th amendments in some sort of Second Reconstruction period. On paper, at least, Blue States would probably ultimately be victorious in any Second Civil War. Not that a lot of people wouldn’t die and once the whole thing is over we might have a generation or more of rebuilding ahead of us.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

But there are absolutely no assurances that there would be any sort of tidy ending to a Second Civil War. It’s just as possible that the country simply collapses and we have an ending a lot closer to what happened to the Soviet Union than we do America during the First Civil War.

The point of it all is a civil war would suck. It would be an enormous clusterfuck to the point that everyone involved would regret they ever thought there would be any upside to it. And, yet, here we are. It’s possible that the United States, the most powerful nation in the world is, in a few years, going to use WMD on itself and bomb itself into the stone age with its eyes wide open — and by choice.

Stephanie Graham & Trumplandia’s ‘Banality of Evil’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing that never ceases to amaze me is how it’s become commonplace for ex-TrumpWorld toadies to write a book then try to get validation in the liberal media as part of a book tour.

Why is this happening?

The latest person to do this is, crazy enough Stephanie Graham who was notorious for not only never holding a press conference as White House Press Secretary, but being very, very close to First Lady Melania Trump. Those two for years were extremely tight.

But, here we are.

She’s doing a book tour and she’s saying everything people like me believed to be true during the four years of Trumplandia hell we went through, only after it doesn’t matter anymore. The fact that she might get some sweet, sweet cash from selling books probably has something to do with her changing sides. But here’s something interesting that Olivia Nuzzi write about this whole situation.

All I can think of is how, post WWII, the actions of the Nazis were described as, on a practical basis, as pretty banal. In fact, there’s even a phrase, “the banality of evil” to describe the situation.

And, I think, that’s what’s going on with Trumplandia. A lot of people who should have known better acted in their personal best interests instead of the interests of the nation and grew so drunk in their access to power that they didn’t care at all about the damage they were causing. In, fact, I would say that was what was really going on with the extended clusterfuck that was the first Trump impeachment — the administration was so spinning out of control that everyone began to completely ignore not just norms, but the law. It was only when they got caught that they started feeling bad and quitting.

It definitely looks as though barring something unexpected that Trump is going to run again and “win” in 2024 because of Steve Bannon’s 20,000 “shock troops” fucking up the actual administration of elections on the local level. And, really, it could be that all of Trump’s bullshit is nothing more than a prelude to the main attraction of someone like Mike Flynn, or Ron DeSantis, or Josh Hawley, or Mike Pompeo or…the list goes on….being an American Putin once Trump cues them up to be his fascist successor.

At the moment, I think we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy, but for the unknown of Trump. He’s such a fucking idiot that he, unto himself, could be the very thing that pushes into an otherwise avoidable civil war.

Red October: Of Fiona Hill’s Warning


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Top Russia expert Fiona Hill said recently that, essentially, Russia’s present may be America’s future. I totally agree with her on that. And, yet, I would like to make some observations about what she said. Because, she’s right, it’s just there are some reasons why we may not slip peacefully into autocracy.

The Guns Of Red October
The thing that Ms. Hill may be underestimating is how much the MAGA New Right wants political violence. How much they want even the barest excuse to run around, murdering people like me in cold blood for political reasons. As such, the thing that would otherwise happen –we slip peacefully into autocracy — doesn’t happen because the MAGA New Right is so wrapped up in the glory of violence that they feel liberals are “forcing” them to commit, that they totally miss that they could get everything they want peacefully if they’re just patient.

Trumplandia Part Duh
Another quibble I have with her prediction is it doesn’t take into account what an abject, complete and total fucking idiot Trump is. He always says the quiet part out loud. He also takes the most stupid, lazy path to get what he wants and, as such, it’s easy to imagine that through sheer idiotic incompetence, Trump is personally responsible for a Second American Civil War.

American Self-Perception
There’s a chance that when Steve Bannon gets what he wants, Steve Bannon gets what he wants. In other words, there’s a risk that the moment Bannon strangles American democracy with his “20,000 shock troops,” that is the moment the average non-MAGA person in the United States is so startled at what he’s managed to pull off that the country buckles and we have a civil war.

So, yes, Ms. Hill is right. But the verdict is out as to how peaceful everything will be.

‘Red October:’ Be Careful What You Wish For, Mr. Bannon — You Just Might Get It


by Ender

Fuck Steve K. Bannon. That piece of shit. Having said that, I have to respect him for actively organizing in the real world the destruction of American democracy at its weakest link; the local level.

As I’ve written before, the thing about Bannon is, the jury is still out if he’s just an avatar for how fucked up the United State is — like Trump — or if he’s a potential Great Man who actually puts his own will on the course of history. I’m leaning towards him just being an avatar because even though he’s putting in the hard work in the real world that Twitter liberals refuse to do, it’s still pretty easy work.

Steve K. Bannon

He’s able to do it in broad daylight and there are plenty of crazed MAGA New Right cocksuckers who are primed and ready to go — all they need is a bit of direction at Bannon’s behest.

So, I dunno.

Bannon and I are a lot alike in our ability to take abstract concepts and make them concrete. We’re at exact opposite ends of the political spectrum, however. And I’m not nearly the suck-my-own-cock-ideolog that Bannon is. So, I feel as though he’s so wrapped up in his dream of being a modern day Lenin that he is missing some key problems with his plan.

What Bannon wants to do is a replay of 2000. He wants to steal the 2022 and 2024 elections in broad daylight, but in such a way that the very thing he thinks is so evil — the liberal press media narrative — will cause a collective shrug from the population when it all happens. He’s betting that the can smother democracy in broad daylight and because the neoliberal shills of corporate media have a vested interest in keeping everyone placid he’ll get away with it.

By January 2025, the administration of elections in the United States will be so corrupted by Bannon’s “shock troops” that it will be taken for granted that we’re no longer a democracy and, lulz, why did we even care in the first place. And, I have to Bannon credit, at the moment, I think he’s probably going to pull it off.

The MAGA New Right will gently transition us from liberal democracy to autocratic managed democracy and within a generation CNN will be owned by FOX and singing the praises of our system which is just like the perfect system found in Russia.

And, yet.

This has not happened yet. This is also a possibility that everything will be going fine for Bannon until he gets what he wants. Then, instead of everyone just shrugging and letting him get away with it, there’s a massive fucking freak out and the country descends into an actual hot, fighting civil war.

But it’s one of those things that you can’t predict. The entire system is designed to keep Americans believing they live in a democracy and that there’s no need to turn to violence should that no longer be the case. So, at the moment, Bannon’s totally logical to think he can pull of a stunt like I just described.

And, yet, if Bannon get what he wants, well, he might just get what he wants. It could be that the moment it becomes clear that his effort at nullifying any Democratic win at the local level has been successful, the average non-MAGA person may grow so enraged that, well, some pretty dark shit happens.

Or, to put it another way, the moment Bannon succeeds, may be the moment he fails. Political historical events like the type Bannon is plotting don’t happen in a vacuum. There would be some sort of consequence and potentially a lot of unintended consequences.

Red October: America As Failed State


by Ender

In honor of Qanon cocksuckers thinking something magical is going to happen as a part of “Red October,” I’ve decided to spam their searches for the term by using it gratuitously in my post titles until I don’t feel like it anymore.

America has a very 9/10 vibe to it right now. It feels like Something Big is going to happen at any moment, which will totally change the media narrative. I have no idea what it is, but something.

But let’s talk about the endgame to all of this — what’s going to happen to United States?

Well, there are a number of different scenarios. Let’s go through a few of the more interesting ones.

Balkanization
In this scenario, the United States ends not with a bang, but with a whimper. There’s a lot of talk about a civil war, but in the end, we just don’t have it in us and as part of the Election Crisis of 2024 – 2025, three major states, California, Texas and Florida peacefully leave the Union. Then, the rest of the United States buckles and you have a significantly weaker — and poorer — rump USA. In a sense, this might be seen as the Soviet Union Endgame.

Civil War (Blue State Victory)
In this scenario, there’s a civil war, we bomb ourselves into oblivian, but in the end, Blue States win and we enter a New Age of a stronger, more powerful and more united country. We will look back at what happened around this time as the American Crisis of The 21 Century. There will be an entirely new world order because of the numerous limited nuclear exchanges that took place while we were using WMD on ourselves. But there’s a chance that Humanity might have seen how close it came to its own destruction and realizes it needs to unite going forward.

Civil War (Red State Victory)
In this scenario, the opposite happens. Red States, win a Second Civil War because Blue States are simply too weak willed. Also, the Red States are willing to use WMD to make up for their smaller economies and populations that they win through sheer bloodthirstiness.

Military Junta
With this one, we have a very bad, very brief crisis where the US military steps in for a few months or even years while organize a Constitutional Convention. It’s a very scary, for unstable time, but we’re able to rework the Constitutional enough to placate both sides for a few more decades. This would be similar to a number of Constitutional amendments that were frantically proposed around the beginning of the first Civil War in an effort to prevent it from breaking out.

Autocracy
With this, we gently — and peacefully — slip into autocracy in such a way that not everyone even realizes we’re not longer a democracy. Gradually, over a decade or more, however, the United States and Russia begin to grow identical in their politics to the point that they’re often compared as being clones of each other. Center-Left leave the United States in the millions and the country begins to retreat into itself just as China is growing in strength. The Age of Democracy will be replaced with The Age of Autocracy and we all slowly cook alive because nationalism grows to be the most powerful thing in the world.

American Taliban
This is the darkest ending. We have a civil war and because of the extensive use of WMD, something akin to an American Taliban springs up out of the chaos — specifically in the old Deep South. They’re extreme and they murder in cold blood en masse anyone they disagree with. Their existence will be the central political problem of North America for at least a generation.