Red October: Prediction 2023 — A Republican Congress, Speaker Trump & The Impeachment of Both Biden & Harris


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Holy shit are things going to get a lot worse soon. It is a testament to how we’ve crossed the Event Horizon of a potential “Fourth Turning” that we have to take seriously the possibility that Trump will become Speaker when the House flips as part of the 2022 mid-terms.

If that very real possibility becomes a reality, then all my dystopian hellscape predictions for 2024 – 2025 may happen a few years earlier. The country is running on political fumes at the moment. Just the added pressure of Speaker Trump ranting about how Biden and Harris absolutely have to be removed from office might be enough to tip us into significant political violence.

Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

  1. It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
    For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
  2. Republicans have gamed the system.
    It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
  3. Not Trump 2024
    Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
  4. Autocracy is very popular in the United States
    A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
  5. Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
    Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

But one thing is clear — there is a 100% chance that both Biden and Harris will be impeached for something, anything if the Republicans win the House. Speaker Trump would just be the autocratic cherry on top. That I have to take the prospect of a Speaker Trump this seriously is sign enough that we’re very, very, very fucked.

This next year is literally potentially the last year the United States will be anything akin to a functioning democracy. This will especially be the case if Speaker Trump actively incites political violence as a ploy to force Senate Democrats to convict Biden and Harris.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

Even if that doesn’t happen, 2022 will be the testing grounds for Steve Bannon’s administrative coup on the local level and if it becomes extremely obvious that it has succeeded, we will face the choice of either confronting this death of democracy, or simply slipping peacefully into autocracy.

Steve K. Bannon

At the moment, I think we’re going to avoid a civil war and slip peacefully into autocracy. The only unknowns are if the MAGA New Right is so bloodthirsty that they force the issue and if Trump is so stupid by saying the quiet part out loud that that, too, forces the issue.

But the Establishment has a vested interest in avoiding a civil war outside of those two factors mentioned above, I think we’re going to wake up 20 years from now and the United States and Russia will be identical on a political level. President DeSantis (or Flynn, or whomever) will have been president for a generation. There will be the occasional big protest across the country that we’ll hear about through the BBC and a lot of talk about how this or that thing might bring down the American autocrat…but jack shit will actually happen.

This is not an abstract for me. I’m just the type of loud mouth anti-MAGA person who would likely die at the hands of an ICE agent. The time for using the term “hope” as a talking point is long over. The time to think existentially on a personal basis is here.

The future is dark, and growing darker by the moment.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Red October: No One Is Going To Save Us From The MAGA New Right


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s comical how Twitter liberals continue to struggle with — or are completely obviously to — the cold, hard reality that we’re on our own when it comes to our dark, dark future.

Who knows which future we’ll pick.

There will be no reform. There will be no “boom” that changes everything. We can no long simply “hope” that somehow, someway, the entire MAGA New Right edifice is going to magically come crashing down.

We have to admit that in the end, we may be forced into a corner by MAGA. Things are going to grow existential, especially if Steve Bannon’s administrative coup plan works. As early as 2022, we may be faced with the very real world of us either admitting that we’re going to be an autocracy or we have some sort of civil war.

I really, really don’t violence and I definitely don’t want a civil war. But the MAGA New Right is so full if itself, so bloodthirsty that they could very well force the issue, over and above the successful implementation of Bannon’s administrative coup.

The MAGA New Right could be on the cusp of peacefully getting everything they want, only to blow it because first, Trump always says the quiet part out loud and two, their own bloodlust gets the best of them.

I don’t think enough people appreciate how dire our striates are at the moment. We really are careening towards the existential decision of civil war or autocracy (or maybe military junta) and there will be no improvements to our lot. We pretty much have — on a political level — everything we’re going to have in the 2022 – 2024 timeframe.

We are so, totally fucked.

There are no easy answers. No easy solutions. And victory is the MAGA New Right’s to lose.

Given that they’re led by deranged lunatic Donald Trump, anything is possible.

Red October: America’s Endgame Enigma


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The general unease in the United States right now comes from there being no obvious endgame to what’s going on. On one hand, it seems clear that the country is going to peacefully slip into autocratic managed democracy when Republicans brazenly steal first the 2022 mid-terms and then the 2024 presidential election. Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

  1. It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
    For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
  2. Republicans have gamed the system.
    It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
  3. Not Trump 2024
    Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
  4. Autocracy is very popular in the United States
    A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
  5. Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
    Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

On paper, this will all happen peacefully and in the open. The center-Left lacks the leadership and the backbone to do anything about it. Trump becomes president, he picks a successor and at some point in the 2025 -2029 timeframe, we have a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention and that will be that. President Flynn or DeSantis or whomever will become effectively president for life and 20 years from now we’ll be talking about Generation Flynn (or whomever.)

Under this scenario, we’ll avoid the any conflict with a rising China because the United States will recede to Fortress America at just about the same time. Millions of center-Left people will flee the country and the United States will begin a downward spiral into a “shit hole country.” Those who remain who don’t kowtow to the autocrat will be “re-educated,” killed or tortured into submission.

That, at the moment, seems like the logical endgame to what’s going on. But for one thing.

Donald Trump.

Or, to put it more broadly, how the MAGA New Right has developed enough bloodlust that they may very well bungle what should be a historical gimmie and lose everything because they want to murder people like me for political reasons.

In this other endgame, because of Trump saying the quiet part out loud, when we have the Certification Crisis of 2024 – 2025, instead of the MAGA New Right letting history run its course, they intentionally push us into civil war just because they have come to glorify political violence for the sake of political violence. Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

This would be an epic self-own on the part of the MAGA New Right because they pretty much have a clear shot at turning the United States into a Russian clone without firing a shot. They would lose that if they forced the issue and made desperate Blue States organize their defense not in halls of Congress, but on the field of battle.

In general, I’m of the opinion that Blue States would win a Second Civil War, even though the gratuitous use of sized WMD would make such a victory extremely costly. Even if Blue States won a Second Civil War, the whole world would be remade while we fought it.

WW3 would happen around the world as regional wars broke out all at the same time. Billions would die after a number of limited nuclear exchanges. So, one could imagine the post-Second American Civil War Era being a lot like what happened after WW2.

But that’s only if the Blue States win. And, this time, the entire globe would be recovering from an epic clusterfuck of our own making. If you wanted to be hopeful, you could say just like after WW2, such a horrible global experience would cause humanity to work collectively to solve existential issues like global climate change.

Yet, I’m doubtful.

A Second American Civil War would be extremely high risk, high reward, to the point that maybe slipping peacefully into autocracy isn’t all that bad after all. But the fact remains — I honestly don’t know which one of those two paths we’re going to go down. There is the third option of some sort of temporary military junta, but that’s the least likely of the three scenarios.

Anyway, get a passport. Start thinking existentially on a personal basis. You probably have a few years. Use them to prepare.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Nothing is going to change. Nothing will be reformed. There will be no “boom” that fixes our lingering existential problems. Things are only going to get worse. TrumpWorld is above the law on a political basis and always will be. The only way we will get any accountability is if, in fact, we do have a civil war and the Blue States win. Otherwise, we simply slip peacefully into autocracy and that will be that.

Red October: Is Civil War Coming?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If you’re asking the question, “Is civil war coming,” you probably want a pat, easy answer that either makes you feel better or alarms you. Sadly, I can’t predict the future and can’t give you the type of answer you want.

What I can give you is some sense of why it’s at least possible that we might have a civil war in a few years, probably around 2024 – 2025. Here are a few reasons off the top of my head.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

But, back to your question. I don’t know. Yet, a civil war is definitely one of a few options facing us in the next few years. At the moment, I think we have three options: autocracy, civil war or a military junta. One thing I want to make absolutely clear — no one is going to save us.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Nothing is going to change. Nothing will be reformed. There will be no “boom” that fixes our lingering existential problems. Things are only going to get worse. TrumpWorld is above the law on a political basis and always will be. The only way we will get any accountability is if, in fact, we do have a civil war and the Blue States win. Otherwise, we simply slip peacefully into autocracy and that will be that.

I’m just telling you general long-term metrics. No one can predict the future.

The Guns Of Red October: What We Have Here Is A Dead Frog


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Darkness has come to America. I say this because it’s pretty obvious that the MAGA New Right has made the cognitive leap necessary for there eventually to be something akin to a Second American Civil War.

In fact, I would even go so far as to propose that much like the Great Powers in the lead up to WW1, MAGA would rather there be a civil war than simply be patient and let the country inevitably transition to autocracy.

“Red October”

That’s who we endup with badshit fucking insane Red October concept which is pretty much just a catch-all for fucking cocksucker MAGA New Right idiots to try to suck their own cocks. Even they don’t know what “Red October” means. It just sounds like some sort of vague idea that there will be a MAGA New Right-themed “revolution” of some sort this October. Ugh. Fucking idiot cocksuckers.

So, there’s a chance that even though it’s pretty clear there’s a decent chance that the United States will peacefully transition into autocracy in the late 2024 – early 2025 timeframe, that MAGA New Right people will go out of their way to ensure there’s a civil war just so they can start murdering people like me in cold blood.

And, as I have said repeatedly, the main issue we face is that autocracy is very popular in the United States. A huge segment of the electorate no longer believes in democracy and is eager for us to become a MAGA New Right autocracy. They will cheer for joy when it arrives, only to regret their decision when the actions of the new regime somehow begin to harm them on a personal basis.

I really wish Twitter liberals would stop the pretense and accept that no one is going to save us — we have to save ourselves. We have to accept that all the usual peaceful means we might use to influence the course of the country — the things we typically call “politics” — are either dead or dying. We have to stop having “hope” that this or that thing will change or be reformed. Some reasons why we might have a civil war:

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

Nothing is going to change and nothing is going to be reformed.

We have to work with what we have at the moment. We have to begin, on a personal level, to prepare for the existential choice of civil war or autocracy that we face around 2025. There are no easy solutions. No “booms” or nasty, pointed Twitter threads that will save us.

Things are dark and going to get darker. What’s your plan?

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

‘Red October:’ Be Careful What You Wish For, Mr. Bannon — You Just Might Get It


by Ender

Fuck Steve K. Bannon. That piece of shit. Having said that, I have to respect him for actively organizing in the real world the destruction of American democracy at its weakest link; the local level.

As I’ve written before, the thing about Bannon is, the jury is still out if he’s just an avatar for how fucked up the United State is — like Trump — or if he’s a potential Great Man who actually puts his own will on the course of history. I’m leaning towards him just being an avatar because even though he’s putting in the hard work in the real world that Twitter liberals refuse to do, it’s still pretty easy work.

Steve K. Bannon

He’s able to do it in broad daylight and there are plenty of crazed MAGA New Right cocksuckers who are primed and ready to go — all they need is a bit of direction at Bannon’s behest.

So, I dunno.

Bannon and I are a lot alike in our ability to take abstract concepts and make them concrete. We’re at exact opposite ends of the political spectrum, however. And I’m not nearly the suck-my-own-cock-ideolog that Bannon is. So, I feel as though he’s so wrapped up in his dream of being a modern day Lenin that he is missing some key problems with his plan.

What Bannon wants to do is a replay of 2000. He wants to steal the 2022 and 2024 elections in broad daylight, but in such a way that the very thing he thinks is so evil — the liberal press media narrative — will cause a collective shrug from the population when it all happens. He’s betting that the can smother democracy in broad daylight and because the neoliberal shills of corporate media have a vested interest in keeping everyone placid he’ll get away with it.

By January 2025, the administration of elections in the United States will be so corrupted by Bannon’s “shock troops” that it will be taken for granted that we’re no longer a democracy and, lulz, why did we even care in the first place. And, I have to Bannon credit, at the moment, I think he’s probably going to pull it off.

The MAGA New Right will gently transition us from liberal democracy to autocratic managed democracy and within a generation CNN will be owned by FOX and singing the praises of our system which is just like the perfect system found in Russia.

And, yet.

This has not happened yet. This is also a possibility that everything will be going fine for Bannon until he gets what he wants. Then, instead of everyone just shrugging and letting him get away with it, there’s a massive fucking freak out and the country descends into an actual hot, fighting civil war.

But it’s one of those things that you can’t predict. The entire system is designed to keep Americans believing they live in a democracy and that there’s no need to turn to violence should that no longer be the case. So, at the moment, Bannon’s totally logical to think he can pull of a stunt like I just described.

And, yet, if Bannon get what he wants, well, he might just get what he wants. It could be that the moment it becomes clear that his effort at nullifying any Democratic win at the local level has been successful, the average non-MAGA person may grow so enraged that, well, some pretty dark shit happens.

Or, to put it another way, the moment Bannon succeeds, may be the moment he fails. Political historical events like the type Bannon is plotting don’t happen in a vacuum. There would be some sort of consequence and potentially a lot of unintended consequences.

Red October: America As Failed State


by Ender

In honor of Qanon cocksuckers thinking something magical is going to happen as a part of “Red October,” I’ve decided to spam their searches for the term by using it gratuitously in my post titles until I don’t feel like it anymore.

America has a very 9/10 vibe to it right now. It feels like Something Big is going to happen at any moment, which will totally change the media narrative. I have no idea what it is, but something.

But let’s talk about the endgame to all of this — what’s going to happen to United States?

Well, there are a number of different scenarios. Let’s go through a few of the more interesting ones.

Balkanization
In this scenario, the United States ends not with a bang, but with a whimper. There’s a lot of talk about a civil war, but in the end, we just don’t have it in us and as part of the Election Crisis of 2024 – 2025, three major states, California, Texas and Florida peacefully leave the Union. Then, the rest of the United States buckles and you have a significantly weaker — and poorer — rump USA. In a sense, this might be seen as the Soviet Union Endgame.

Civil War (Blue State Victory)
In this scenario, there’s a civil war, we bomb ourselves into oblivian, but in the end, Blue States win and we enter a New Age of a stronger, more powerful and more united country. We will look back at what happened around this time as the American Crisis of The 21 Century. There will be an entirely new world order because of the numerous limited nuclear exchanges that took place while we were using WMD on ourselves. But there’s a chance that Humanity might have seen how close it came to its own destruction and realizes it needs to unite going forward.

Civil War (Red State Victory)

In this scenario, the opposite happens. Red States, win a Second Civil War because Blue States are simply too weak willed. Also, the Red States are willing to use WMD to make up for their smaller economies and populations that they win through sheer bloodthirstiness.

Military Junta

With this one, we have a very bad, very brief crisis where the US military steps in for a few months or even years while organize a Constitutional Convention. It’s a very scary, for unstable time, but we’re able to rework the Constitutional enough to placate both sides for a few more decades. This would be similar to a number of Constitutional amendments that were frantically proposed around the beginning of the first Civil War in an effort to prevent it from breaking out.

Autocracy

With this, we gently — and peacefully — slip into autocracy in such a way that not everyone even realizes we’re not longer a democracy. Gradually, over a decade or more, however, the United States and Russia begin to grow identical in their politics to the point that they’re often compared as being clones of each other. Center-Left leave the United States in the millions and the country begins to retreat into itself just as China is growing in strength. The Age of Democracy will be replaced with The Age of Autocracy and we all slowly cook alive because nationalism grows to be the most powerful thing in the world.

American Taliban
This is the darkest ending. We have a civil war and because of the extensive use of WMD, something akin to an American Taliban springs up out of the chaos — specifically in the old Deep South. They’re extreme and they murder in cold blood en masse anyone they disagree with. Their existence will be the central political problem of North America for at least a generation.

This ‘Red October’ Bullshit Is Why America Is Going To Hell


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Jesus H. Christ. This Website gets, at most, about 100 unique views in one day. Ever since I posted about fucking “Red October” about 20% of my hits have been from fucking cocksucker idiot Qanon fucktards apparently giddy at the prospect of….what?

There is something deeply wrong with American politics if that many people all over the country actually believe some sort of Qanon bullshit about a “Red October” happening. And all because of a confusion over why the White House was bathed in red light!

You just can’t make this bullshit up.

And, yet, here we are. There is a small, but passionate, group of people who apparently think some sort of bonkers Qanon prophecy about Red October has now come to pass and, I don’t know…it’s just so much bullshit that my poor old globalist cuck mind can’t process it.

One way of looking at it is Qanon is the type of secret society bullshit that a nation on the cusp of civil war or revolution usually experiences. But oh my God would a civil war suck. It would be truly horrific.