Tag: Autocratic America

‘will the USA end up in civil war 2021’



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Short answer: No.

Long Answer: Maybe. But it’s a lot more complicated than you might think. The MAGA New Right at this point just as an abstract belief that given that civil war is the worst thing they can think of, that that’s what’s going to happen sooner rather than later.

But beyond that, what exactly they expect to have happen is rather fuzzy.

All the typical MAGA New Right person knows is, in general terms, liberals are “driving them” to radicalization and violence. In other words, if only liberals would “leave them alone” they would have no reason to have such dark thoughts about a civil war that would bomb us all back to the stone age.

For there to be a civil war in 2021 as opposed to, say, January 2025, there would have be a pretty big political event that would push us into crisis. And from what I can tell of the web searches that bring people to this site, often times people seem to think more in terms of a populist MAGA New Right revolution than a state-level civil war.

This is a notion that I really struggle with. What the fuck are they hearing that would lead them to believe MAGA New Right people are going to simply, en masse rise up and over throw the government. This is very bonkers given the entire Republican organization is anti-democratic and will likely force the issue around January 2025 when a MAGA controlled Congress simply nullifies any Biden re-election.

There’s something going on that I don’t understand because I’m not involved in the MAGA New Right bullshit echo chamber. What I THINK is happening is, Far Right wing “thought leaders” have begun to babble about civil war / revolution happening NOW and that has people thinking about that to the point that they search for information about such things and end up at this site. The ironic thing being, of course, that we both have some pretty dark things on our minds, but coming from the exact opposite political directions.

What I fear, they hope for, in other words.

I fear a civil war, they want one so they have the opportunity to have some sort of liberal “final solution.”

And make no mistake, there are a number of things bouncing around the Far Right wing bullshit echo chamber that have led such people to believe a civil war could happen RIGHT NOW. One of them is the Cyber Ninjas recount bullshit in Arizona. On Twitter, at least, they never come out and say it — that they want to violently over throw the government if the Cyber Ninjas “prove” Trump “won” the state…but that sure is the implication of all their bonkers Waiting For Godot.

So, back to the question — could we have an actual civil war in the United States in 2021? A domestic 9/11-level type event would have to happen in such a way that states began to leave the Union for anything close to that to start happening this year.

Even then, Ii struggle to figure out what, specifically, could cause states to want to leave the Union after such a severe domestic terrorist attack. Just seems like if there’s going to be a civil war in the United States that isn’t in January 2025, it will be somehow connected to the 2022 mid-term certification instead.

So, in general, I understand — some degree — why people keep searching for a civil war happening in the United States in 2021, I struggle to think of anything, in concrete terms, that would cause one to happen.

Maybe in 2023 or 2025, though.

The MAGA New Right Is Devoid of Shame


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the many metrics one can use to look past the rainbows and unicorn farts that people like “Mueller, She Wrote” hope will safe us from the rise of autocracy is the MAGA New Right’s lack of any form of shame. (I only keep harping on the MSW Twitter account because they blocked me and I find it annoying.)

In the Before Times, when “Mueller, She Wrote” seems to still reside, there was this thing called shame. Even if nothing was criminally proven against you, you would resign in disgrace. This is back before Bill Barr (probably) told his good buddy Bob Mueller to wrap things up “for the sake of the country.”

Exhibit A.

But all that bullshit did happen and so we now have a situation where Trump has proven that if you just whip out your cock and wiggle it enough, the public grows bored and moves on to the next crisis. It’s been proven that any politician, having been accused of anything and I mean ANYTHING, can to go about their business, your liberal democracy is in deep fucking trouble.

And either you see that or you don’t. Either you are willing to admit that we’re in a severe, lingering political crisis or you think the we’re going to suddenly and magically produce the political will necessary to convict any number of MAGA New Right leaders.

Just using the metrics of what I can see with my own two eyes: we’re fucked.

What this means for you, gentle reader, on an individual basis, I have no idea. I hate violence, so all I got is…get a passport? Move somewhere in the country that fits your politics better? If I was writing for VOX where all its Tik-Toks are spoken in a received English with a severe vocal fry, maybe I could tell you want to do in some sort of explainer.

But I’m not. No on listens to me. God speed.

The Texas Gutting of Roe V. Wade Epitomizes Everything Wrong With American Politics


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Despite how controversial it is, the Roe V. Wade decision continues enjoy a broad level of support across the political spectrum. This has not stopped MAGA New Right Republicans from doing everything in their power to overturn it, however. And, recently, the effectively got their wish and, by doing so, they caught the preverbal car.

America, 2021

Now what?

Well, contrary to what the nattering Blue Check liberals of negativism on Twitter may have you believe — not a lot. Our political system is so out of whack, so rotten, so corrupted by the ascent of autocratic forces that lulz, Republicans are going to get away with it. There will be no political consequences for them — they’ve successfully squared the circle.

For the moment, it seems Republicans simply want to deny what has happened — the gutting of a popular SCOTUS ruling — has happened. When it finally it overturned — probably this fall — they STILL won’t face any political consequences. None. There may be a lot of political anger and even protests, but, in the end, yet another bolt will have popped off our liberal democracy and we’re going to be one step closer to the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.

And, contrary to what people like, the Twitter account, “Mueller, She Wrote,” believe, no one is going to save us. We’re on our own. I’m not being defeatist with this “doom shit” I’m simply telling it like it is. We’re careening towards an unprecedented (in modern times) existential political crisis.

What I mean by this is now is not the time to sit back an rely upon our justice system to do what we would otherwise expect it to do — we’re fucked. Instead of believing some combination of rainbows and unicorn farts will end the MAGA New Right nightmare that continues to haunt us, we need to look at this as they are, not as we would want them to be.

The reason why abortion is so important is not abortion itself, but how it serves as a firebreak against those who would outlaw any form of birth control in an overarching effort to 1) control women 2) ensure there are more white babies, no matter what. And if those white babies live in squalor and turn into rabid MAGA New Right shock troops, all the better.

As such, the lack of political consequences for the MAGA New Right because of the end of Roe is all you need to know about the state of the American political environment.

My God have mercy on all our souls.

‘Is Civil War Coming To The US?’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Short Answer: I don’t know right now. Ask again in mid-2024.

Long answer: Keep an eye on what Donald Trump does. There are currently about a dozen would-be autocrats in the United States who could easily transition the country into a Russian-style autocratic managed democracy given the opportunity.

Oh captain, my captain.

And, yet, for any of them to get that opportunity, they have to get around the one person who could single-handedly, through personal incompetence push us into the other alternative — civil war: Donald Trump.

I say this because Trump could have very easily transitioned the United States into an autocracy in the 2017-2021 timeframe because that’s what he was elected to do by the people who voted for him: turn the United States into an autocracy. Too bad for them, they voted for the “You’re fired” guy and they got an idiot moron who was too lazy to do even the most barest of work necessary to establish one.

And when he did do any work is was at the very last moment when he tried to organize an insurrection to browbeat his veep into not doing a job he couldn’t even not do if he wanted to — certify the vote.

So, it’s very reasonable to believe that if it’s Trump that history gives the responsibility in 2024-2025 to transition the United States into an autocracy, he’s going to fuck it up so bad that we have a civil war. The people who love him so much are in a personality death cult. They love the “idea” of him so much that they are willfully ignorant to how what they want — a Russian-style autocratic managed democracy — is a lot more likely to happen under the guise of a President DeSantis, Cotton or Pompeo than ding-bat idiot Trump.

And, yet, that’s who they love, so they may get a civil war that destroys us all rather than a capable Great Man who would peacefully strangle America’s 240 years of democracy over the course of two or three years.

But a lot could happen between now and the general 2024-2025 timeframe when it appears we’re most likely to have some sort of severe political crisis. I will note that the earlier any type of “civil war” is triggered, the more likely anti-MAGA forces will win.

Since I get accused of “doom shit” by people Twitter liberals actually listen to, the minority report would be that, no, we’re not going to have a civil war. Somehow, magically, Trump and his whole ecosystem will somehow magically be brought down by a combination of hubris and a Justice Department that, to date, has not shown any indication that they’re going to do anything — ever — about Trump. What’s more because of how dire the rot within our political system is, somehow, even more magically, even if we do pin the planning of the January 6th Insurrection on Trump and friends we’re going to have the political will do hold them accountable for it. Instead of, say, just a big old lulz.

So, are we going to have a modern Civil War in the United States? The conditions are there for one, yes, but we’re not there yet. It’s going to be a few years before we reach a tipping point.

Probably.

Second American Civil War Scenario #3: Trump Runs Again


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m going to call it now: if Trump runs again, we’re probably going to have a civil war.

I say this because Trump is notorious for screwing up situations where he should get what he wants without any problems. Just look at the 2020 election. Everything and I mean EVERYTHING was cued up for him to steal that election — even with a pandemic — and he screwed it up.

Any other would-be autocrat would be enjoying their second term right now and Trump is such a lazy, idiotic ding-dong that he couldn’t pull it off. IDIOT. As such, it’s easy to imagine a situation where between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025, Trump single-handedly sparks a civil war because he’s a fucking moron.

He will have the entire edifice of the Republican Party at his disposal, so when even though everything is aligned for us to peacefully transition into an autocracy Trump, unto himself, will fuck things up. He has repeatedly done this in the past and he will do it in the future.

If someone like DeSantis is the 2024 Republican nominee our transition to autocracy will be swift and peaceful. We’ll just wake up at some point in 2025 to learn the media has been purged and, lulz, sucks to be you, lib. Then the existing ICE infrastructure will be weaponized and Hollywood will flee, en masse to, say, Perth.

So, if Trump announces, have a passport handy. Or be willing to defend — or suffer for — what you believe in. Things are going to get lit in the real world. No more of this “Twitter Resistance” bullshit.

Second American Civil War Scenario #2: Waiting For The Durham Report


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Though the American political system is very, very fragile at the moment, there would need to be some sort of outside pressure for anything close to a “civil war” to happen. One possible origin of such a pressure is some combination of The Durham Report and / or the Arizona Audit “proving” Trump was right / really won the 2020 election.

I troll the Arizona Audit echo chamber a lot these days. The prospect of the Arizona Audit has fused with the prospect of The Durham Report coming out so your typical MAGA New Right person assumed Durham has the Arizona Audit on his desk, ready to release it with his report.

The whole thing makes me ashamed to be an American.

But that’s what the MAGA New Right base is fixated on even at this late date. It’s both pathetic and comical how they have all their hopes of Trump being “re-instated” on some mixture of The Report and the Arizona Audit. They won’t come out and say it, of course, but what they want is a violent overthrow the American government if either — or both — of these reports give them the results they want, need and expect.

So, it is possible that THIS is how we’ll endup having a civil war. Sooner or later Cyber Ninjas “proves” Trump “won’t the election and there’s a sudden push to nullify the 2020 election. Then, lulz, there a secessionist conventions and we have a civil war.

Or something like this.

I’m king of growing tired of ranting about all of this. We’re kind of treading water at the moment. We’re drifting towards a January 2025 existential choice of autocracy or civil war — but for the time being it seems we’re ok. Things aren’t getting better, but they’re really not getting worse on a tactical level. On a macro level — we’re fucked.

Anyway.

The SCOTUS Texas Abortion Decision Puts America One Step Closer To Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t predict the future. In the end, this could all mean nothing because instead of civil war, we just slip peacefully into autocracy. And, yet, with their decision tonight to effectively end Roe V. Wade, SCOTUS has pushed us closer to a Second American Civil War.

I have no idea what it would look like, or if it would be Blue States or Red States that started it, but I do know that the American political system is so fragile right now that this little push on it could ultimately have huge consequences. This is another bolt popping off or liberal democracy.

There will come a point when there are no bolts left to lose and we have to make a historical, existential choice about what we’re going to do about the divisions America faces — are we going to become a Russian-style autocratic managed democracy, or are we going to bomb ourselves into the stone age in our struggle to figure out which vision of America will win out.

Or, put another way — we face a spectrum, with civil war at one end and autocracy at the other end. After generations of stability and muddling through, the United States has again reached a moment in its history where everyone has to take a side — even if they don’t want to. And there will be no clear narrative as to which side is the right side until after the shooting has not just begun, but ended.

I mean, if Red States try to make up for their small populations and economies by using WMD on Blue States during any putative civil war, then, lulz, they could very well win. Or it could be that the United States simply crashes into a number of smaller nation-states that are always at war with each other. We could join the Soviet Union in the dustbin of history — instead of the United States there will be five or six (or 10?) smaller states that exist where the United States once existed.

The case could be made that all China has to do is be patient — they will have every opportunity to take Taiwan around 2025 because either President DeSantis brings the boys home or we’re so busy having a civil war that we don’t have time to worry about saving Taiwan (or anyone else, for that matter.)

I really have no idea which existential choice we’re going to take. For the moment, however, I think our transition into autocratic managed democracy will be peaceful. There may be huge protests AFTER we’re an autocracy, but, just like with Russia…they will be a lulz.

I wish I had some good news. I don’t.

The Strange Case Of The American Autocracy That Didn’t Happen — Yet


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A funny thing happened on the way to American autocracy: the man history shone on to be the agent of destruction for American democracy turned out to be a big old goober. All the macro historical forces were aligned for 240 years of liberal democracy to be smothered.

And then it didn’t happen.

Pretty much Donald Trump, by being a huge ding-dong gave us some insight into the interaction between Great Men and macro trends of history. Trump was not a Great Man, he was simply an avatar for macro trends. America just barely dodged a historical bullet because Trump, personally, could not do the one thing history had assigned him to do: kill American democracy.

I keep trying to think up ways to grade Trump on an autocratic curve and I keep failing to think of anything. Would you believe that idiot Mussolini was more of a Great Man than Trump ever was. Trump, in the end, was all talk. What’s more he gave the Establishment two things it wanted from him: young hack MAGA judges and a huge plutocrat tax cut…and then he failed everyone else who supported him using any other metric.

While Trump continues to have enormous sway over the Republican Party and the MAGA New Right base, Establishment Republicans are growing really tired of his shock and jibe. They got what they wanted from him, now they want Ron DeSantis to finish the job.

But what job do they want DeSantis to do?

Ron DeSantis

In general, Republicans now simply want to use the quirks of the Constitution to establish permanent white Christian minority rule. I don’t think they’ve thought beyond that — they just want to “control” the growing power of women and minorities. They want power and as much money as they can get through continued smash-and-grab tax “reform.”

And, yet, there’s a problem.

Such things don’t happen in a vacuum. Once it’s conventional wisdom that Republicans have, using the quirks of our creaking Constitution, form follows function and they’re going to start abusing the fuck out of the complete lack of oversight.

And that’s where things get tricky. Will we peacefully transition into an autocratic managed democracy or will we descend into civil war?

At the moment, I think it will all happen peacefully, because the Establishment has a vest interest in the sheeple being complacent. Gradually, however, as we grow more and more fascist in our governance, even the Establishment may live to regret how easily they gave up.

It’s pretty bad when I start thinking that the one thing I don’t want — a civil war — is the better of two bad options because at least there’s a chance the “good guys” will win.

My Captain, My Captain

But back to what’s going on with our undead liberal democracy. Because Trump could not do even the most basic of autocratic power plays in 2020, we are now an autocracy without an autocrat. If you know what you’re looking at, it’s all very surreal. There are a huge number of Americans who want an autocracy so much that they think Fox News is “too liberal.” They are so frightened in the abstract about “Cancel Culture” and “Critical Race Theory,” that they embrace the idea of a fascist state coming to America.

Marinate on that for a second.

We have to admit to ourselves that we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked. Soon enough, voting won’t matter and we either accept that or we have a civil war to make voting matter again. Ugh. I hate even having to think about that. But that’s what we face.

The United States is careening towards a huge historical clusterfuck because Trump, chosen by the Fates to transition us into an autocracy, wasn’t a Great Man, he was just a lazy idiot.

Enjoy these few years — months? — of living in a liberal democracy. Soon enough, that may seem rather quaint.

The Ballad Of Norm Ornstein


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Norm Ornstein is starting to become my hero. Whenever I hear him on Deep State Radio, he says exactly what I think about the potential fate of our liberal democracy.

Norm Ornstein

And, really, in the end, our best case scenario could be that people like he and I will scream bloody murder when the autocracy finally arrives…but the final transition will be peaceful and largely unnoticed by the average person. It will simply be taken for granted by the typical American that Republicans are always in control and always will be in control no matter what.

And then they stop voting.

Then, gradually, the darker sides of autocracy will begin to pop out simply because form follows function. The media will be purged. The disconnect between the will of the people and the actions of the government will grow very, very severe. People will be — no joke — pushed out of windows for not shutting up. People like me and Mr. Ornstein.

But plutocrats will still be able to get abortions for their mistresses. They won’t pay taxes at all — that will be only for The Poors. In fits and starts, over a generation or so the Untied States and Russia will, on a political level, become indentical.

And people like myself and Mr. Ornstein will either get pushed out a window, get exiled or we’ll be allowed to continue to rant in a rage about how the America that we all once knew and loved is no more.

Or we have a civil war.

At the moment, however, I think the dark fears I share with Mr. Ornstein will happen peacefully because Americans generally are a pretty copasetic bunch –we’re not French, after all — and the Establishment will be so co-opted by our new autocratic overloads that they will have every reason to tell the masses not to freak out when the inevitable MAGA New Right Constitutional Convention is called.

We’ve got a good, solid 20 years before the whole push people out of windows for political reasons thing will happen (I hope.) Enjoy these remaining years of freedom while they last.

Second American Civil War Scenario 1: The Scalia Endgame


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are a lot of ways the United States might have something akin to a civil war — or at least severe, rolling political violence on a national scale — and so I’m going to write a post for each of the different scenarios I can think up. In this scenario, Republicans freak out because one of their important political figures simply shuffles peacefully off this mortal coil.

People just don’t appreciate how on edge the United States is a politically right now. All we would need for significant political violence is some unexpected additional pressure.

So, in this scenario, that added pressure comes from someone like Trump — or Justice Thomas (to a far lesser extent) — gently, and peacefully leaving the land of the living.

The only reason why Thomas might be enough is, well, the country is primed and ready for a national freak out and the MAGA New Right is such a fucking bunch of crybabies that even being down one on SCOTUS might be enough to get them to run around murdering people for political reasons.

But it’s Trump we have to worry about.

If you look at the batshit insane rantings of the MAGA New Right on Twitter, they’re pretty much on a knife’s edge when it comes to political reasons to murder people. And, yet, other than the dramatic exception of January 6th, to date, they’ve been all talk. They, in an abstract, manner, want to murder people like me, but, lulz.

And, yet, since there is absolutely no way the MAGA New Right would ever, for any reason accept that The Dear Leader is mortal and just dropped dead of natural causes, there’s every reason to believe that significant, rolling political violence would occur if Trump proved he wasn’t really the Son Of Man after all.

It’s this scenario that would be closest to the “revolution” that MAGA people keep searching for when the endup at this site. (Sidenote: FUCK YOU, MAGA, YOU BUNCH OF COCKSUCKERS.)

Anyway, the point is — America’s political system is so fragile, so on edge that any additional pressure on it might push it over the edge into the realm of violence on a national scale.