These are the twilight days of Pax Americana. The lives of millions of everyday people all over the world are about to change in a rather dramatic fashion one way or another. I say this because no matter what, the current situation we live in is too unstable and is going to break either into autocracy or civil war. There is no middle ground. Pick a side or a side will be chosen for you.
So, if America was a stock, I would short it.
I’m not writing this for VOX, so I’m not smart enough or smug enough to be able to write an explainer as to how to prepare yourself for the coming Great Reset or Fourth Turning. All I know is we’re totally and completely fucked.
I suppose if I was a normal person, I would begin to prepare for departure from the United States. I would try to go back to being an expat somewhere, maybe somewhere in Southeast Asia. But, alas, that’s just not an option. So, I’m going to have to ride the pony to the bottom and see where it leads me.
It definitely seems as though at some point between now and January 2025 there is going to be a Great Reset or Fourth Turning. It could be very subtle as America slides into autocracy or it could be VERY DRAMATIC as Blue States begin to leave the Union as part of a National Divorce. But the crux of the issue is — America is very, very unstable. Like, France right before the French Revolution unstable.
It’s just difficult for one to grasp in an abstract manner what’s going on because the macro forces at work are so enormous.
I have often said that if The End comes, I’ll either be the first person to die or the person who brings back civilization. I find myself thinking a lot about this as I grow more and more alarmed about America’s fate over the next few years. I find myself wondering if I might find out if my silly prediction is going to turn out to be a lot closer to the truth than I might otherwise realize.
In either end of the spectrum — autocracy or civil war — I might very well find my life upended in a rather dramatic fashion. If we become an autocracy, then I’m going to inevitably run afoul of the autocrat. If we have a civil war, then I’m probably going to wiggle my way into some sort of leadership position simply because I refuse to stand by in such a crisis.
Whenever my start to daydream about being some sort of Second American Civil War leader, I think about how U.S. Grant was a drunk in the middle of nowhere for most of the 1850s before the First American Civil War changed his life forever. I’m definitely not comparing myself to Grant, but I do know my strengths and an America thrown into chaos because of a 2ACW is something I know that I could definitely potentially thrive in.
Or, of course, I would be one of the first people murdered for political reasons when it first began — not a lot of people like me. (Wink.)
I don’t seriously believe I could become any sort of leader as a result of a 2ACW, but it is something interesting to think about. Or, put another way, it’s something to make myself feel better when I realize how fucking dark the future of the United States is going to be, one way or another.
The recent murder of Darya Dugin has caused a series of curious events in Russia. As I understand it, the Russians are now claiming that she was murdered by a Ukrainian spy who escaped to Estonia. Or something like that. I’m too lazy to look up the specifics to be sure.
Anyway, all of this gives me pause for thought because if the Russians are pointing fingers at both Estonia and Ukraine, things could go down a very dark path pretty quick. And, what really concerns me at the moment is the United States is so existentially divided — and the fucking fascist Republicans love Russia so much — that I don’t know if the United States is prepared to properly address any military action on the part of the Russians should such a thing happen.
I mean, is the United States prepared to go toe-to-toe with Russia if they decide to attack NATO member Estonia? Republicans love autocracy and Russia so much that after the initial shock wore off, the two sides would each go back into their echo chambers to the point that Biden wouldn’t be able to get the country on the same page as to what to do.
Or, put another way, the United States is so divided and so weak right now that we don’t have the political will to fully serve our purpose as the core of the post WW2 liberal order. And, in all honesty, the only thing that gives me any hope about this particular situation is Russia is so weak — especially after its on-going military debacle in Ukraine — that for the time being all this talk of going after Estonia or Ukraine is just that. Talk.
Russia has been proven to be so weak that they couldn’t do anything with Estonia even if they wanted to. Of course, you could say that Putin is no longer a rational actor and, as such, he might do something as bonkers as attack a NATO member over make up charges. Then my fears of a very divided America would be put to the test.
What I mean by all of this is America is so fucked up right now that there would be no assurances that we summon up the will to defend the free world from Russian aggression if it came to that. I say this especially in the context of the possibility that the fucking fascist Republicans might soon take the House again (at least).
If Russia attacked Estonia and the United States couldn’t get its act together enough to defend it properly in the context of Article 5 of NATO then it would principate the total collapse of the barely-hanging on post-WW2 liberal order. We would be thrown into a level of international chaos not seen since the Interwar period.
Let’s just hope the Russians don’t test America to see if it can still do the right thing, even if it wanted to.
Someone recently came to this site looking for information about what would happen to Kentucky if there was a Second American Civil War. I thought about it some and here’s my general hot take.
First, a lot — and I mean A LOT — of things would have to go wrong for the United States to have a traditional civil war. I say this because of the U.S. Military. The more I think about it, the U.S. Military is something of a wildcard in all these dystopian hellscape civil war scenarios I keep coming up with. The only way that things would get so bad that there was WW2-type fighting in America during a 2ACW would be if states began to leave the Union and were able to successfully get members of the U.S. Military to join their new armies. That is very debatable.
What’s more likely to happen is some sort of military coup then junta. We would endup with Acting President James Mattis who would hold the country together until we were able to have a Second Constitutional Convention to address the causes of our impending doom.
But, let’s say, for the sake of argument, that the U.S. Military was hollowed out as states began to leave the Union. Now, at the moment, I believe that if we have a civil war, it will begin in late 2024, early 2025 when it becomes obvious to Blues that the presidential election was stolen.
I suppose, of course, that it’s at least possible that if Trump gets indicted before 2024 that he will go transactional and it will be Reds, not Blues that demand a “National Divorce” and, as such, start a civil war.
Back to the scenario.
I think the high-density states of the “Heartland” like Kentucky will see the most brutal fighting if it comes to that. I say this because the first phase of the Second American Civil War in that area of the country would see coups and counter coups as it was determined which side each state was on. I mean, there is a very small but very organize group of people in, say, Michigan that would definitely want the state to be a Red state in any Second American Civil War. And, yet, there there are enough Blues in the state that such a move would be violently contested.
So the Heartland would probably turn into a pitched battle just like WW2 in Europe. And, remember, there is a very good chance that WMD would be used by both sides as the civil war began to grow more heated. And, I could see Kentucky radicalizing to the point that the state would collectively decide to fight to the absolute end rather than surrender to Blue forces, should Blue forces get the upper hand and try to re-unite the country as a war aim. (I don’t see that being a war aim for Blues, but war is so unpredictable that I suppose it could happen as part of mission creep.)
What’s more likely to happen is once it’s determined which state is a Blue state and which state is a Red state that there really could be some sort of “National Divorce” that was a lot less violent than you might think. The two sides might agree to disagree once a short, but violent war of separation happened and then the looming problem would be all the people in Trumplandia desperate to flee the Trumplandia USA.
To answer the question of what would happen to Kentucky in a civil war — there is a pretty wide spectrum of outcomes. On one end, you have the state simply becoming a border state to Blue USA (Illinois) and on the other you have the complete and total destruction of the state because Blues swoop in and demand the MAGA cocksuckers come to grips with the reality of who has won the war.
Enjoy these last few months of the post-WW2 era of Pax Americana. At any moment, everything could change in a rather dramatic and violent manner. I don’t know what it will be, but the nation is so much on edge that there definitely seems to be an air of inevitability to it all.
I continue to read a political biography of Hitler about his ascent and it continues to remind me of what’s going on right now in the United States. And, yet, I also continue to notice as I read — Trump is no Hitler. The biggest difference between the two men is even though both of them are very lazy, Trump is by far the lazier of the two.
Even Hitler was willing to do the basic organizational work necessary to get and maintain autocratic power. Trump, meanwhile, is an empty suit. He’s a brat. He thinks that just by ranting a lot he can get what he wants. Now, obviously, some of this has changed with his Schedule F idea. Schedule F is very much a Nazi-like idea. Which brings up the idea again that Trump, unto himself, could start a civil war because he will try to ram through a very radical fascist agenda from the moment he gets into power.
While I absolutely believe that someone like Ron DeSantis will, at a minimum, become an American Putin. But he’s smart enough to slather some sugar on the initial stages of his personal guiding of America into a political Russian clone. Trump, meanwhile, is so deranged that he could very well personally be the reason why Blue states like California begin to call up secessionist conventions at some point in late 2024, early 2025.
I know that sounds hysterical. I get it. And to some extent a lot of what I’m talking about is things I believe that, all things being equal, have the possibility of happening. It doesn’t mean they will. If you really wanted to get nitty-gritty about it, the more I think about it, the more it seems like the U.S. Military would step in and run the country if there was any real risk of civil war. I am well aware that this runs counter to everything the American military believes on an institutional basis, but if the other choice was sitting back and watching the country collapse into chaos, I could see us having an Acting President James Mattis for a few months until we sorted things out through a Constitutional Convention.
But the point is, like I keep saying, this is it — the America we’ve known for about 70 years is just about over and done with. Something is about to replace it. What that will be is still to be determined.
I think it’s safe to say that once the MAGA nightmare is over — however it may be — we’re going to have a lot better understanding of the rise of Hitler in Germany. The vague parallels between Hitler and Trump are startling. But the key thing we have to remember is — no matter how bad things might be with Trump at any particular moment, they’re always going to get worse.
Donald Trump
As such, we have to begin to do not only triage, but gird our political loins for pretty bad situation. Apocalyptic, even. I still content that in the end, MAGA will ultimately be responsible for more deaths than the Nazis. And that goes for either way things might work out — Fortress America or some sort of 2nd American Civil War. In either instance, Pax America will end and something marketing as WW3 will break out.
Or, put another way, we are in the political twilight of an unpreceded era of global peace and prosperity whereby America was the linchpin of a stable order the likes of which humanity has never seen since Roman times. It’s almost over. All that has to happen is either MAGA gains power again or we have a civil war of some sort.
We’re going to live in some very interesting times. There will be no narrative and it may take generations for us to fully understand the implications of what happens. We’re about to have a “Fourth Turning” or “Great Reset” of some sort and it’s all going to be fucking dingus Trump’s fault.
It definitely looks as though everything could go to hell in a handbasket at any moment. All we need is some sort of catalyst. It may be that we will look back at the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago as what started it all, or maybe not. Maybe Trump has to go transactional first.
All I know is — enjoy these last few days or weeks, or months of “normal” life in America. At best we might be able to punt things down the road one more presidential cycle. But the days of muddling through political are over. We’re all going to have to pick a side or a side will be chosen for us.
It’s going to be pretty fucking ironic when the very thing that cry baby MAGA people thought happened with the 2020 election — that it was stolen — really does happen in 2024 to Blues. The moment it becomes clear that voting is moot and the Republicans have successfully turned the United States into an autocracy is the moment of truth.
Either we have a “National Divorce” and, as such, a civil war, or we just give up and become an autocracy. Now, it’s very possible that Trump could very well win the 2024 election without cheating, but it’s his nature to cheat and if that cheating so so brazen that Blues can’t escape it — the potential for a massive clusterfuck exists. And the more I think about it, the more I wonder what role the U.S. Military will be in such a scenario.
If there is real doubt as to who won the 2024 election will they sit back and watch as the country collapses into chaos, or will they step in. Is it possible that we could find ourselves with some sort of military junta while the issue of who is president is sorted out? The fact that SCOUTS might validate the idea of “legislative independence” when it comes to elections is a massive ticking time political time bomb for a number of reasons.
But one thing is clear, we’ve officially reached the danger zone when it comes to America’s fate. Things could go any number of different directions between now and January 2025. We could have some sort of MAGA “revolution.” We could have a Blue “National Divorce” because of the brazen theft of the 2024 election by MAGA. Or we could just slip peacefully into autocracy and that will be that. If we’re lucky, we endup somewhere around Hungary politically and if we’re not, we turn into a Russia clone.
A lot, of course, depends on if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee. At the moment, it definitely seems as though he will be — even if he has to run from prison. As such, he is such a chaos agent that he could, unto himself, cause a civil war. And if it isn’t because he steals the 2024 election, it could be that his agenda for his second term is so radical and so jarring to Blue states that they demand that secessionist conventions be called.
As such, it would be Blues, not Reds, that start a civil war. But Republicans are quite clear how much they not only hate democracy but don’t believe it in it in the first place. So, they would have only themselves to blame if a National Divorce happened because Blue states were enraged by the death of our democracy.
Below is a scenario I came up with some time ago as to how we might have a civil war.
Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
And, honestly, the only thing standing in the way of an autocrat becoming president in 2025 and seizing “total control” pretty quick is any potential cleaving between MAGA and the Republican Party that takes place between now and then.
Given what I’m seeing right now, it definitely doesn’t seem as though that’s going to be a problem. At this point, it seems as though Republicans will first win power in Congress in 2022, then win the presidency (one way or anther) in 2024 and that will be that.
The autocracy we feared during the Trump Era will come, just four years later than we all expected. But…
There’s a real chance that our transition from liberal democracy to autocracy won’t be as smooth as I think — there could be a civil war. One side — or the other — won’t accept the results of the election and the country will finally buckle. All the nightmare scenarios that I came up with in 2020-2021, will just happen in 2024-2025.
If what happened in 2020 is any indication, the first sign that we would have that something was amiss would be on the local level. Instead of people who simply do their job as Americans and do the rather perfunctory duty of certifying the win of A Democrat, this doesn’t happen. In crucial voting districts all across swing states, Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” either refuse to certify the win of A Democrat, or they go so far as to YOLO things and switch the win to Trump.
As this happens, the tension in United States escalates day by day. The very rallying cry of MAGA in 2020 — “Stop The Steal” will be adopted by the center-Left when it becomes clear that the MAGA New Right is hell bent on brazenly stealing the 2024 election in broad daylight.
But remember, the center-Left has a very different personality than the MAGA New Right. The center-Left, for all it’s problems with “cancel culture” and being “woke” is still actually connected to reality. So, there would be a struggle between the natural inclination of centrist Liberals to let the “process work” and Leftists who would want to burn everything to the ground given how corrupted everything had become.
All of this turmoil on the local level would find elections in crucial states thrown into the political realm where MAGA state legislatures and Secretary’s of State would begin to actively ensure that A Democrat is prevented from winning. Every day between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 things would grow more and more unstable in the United States as it became clear that Bannon’s long-planned “administrative coup” was actually going to work.
There would be mass confusion. Lots of lawsuits
And, remember, if Trump is involved, as all of this is going on, he would do everything in his personal power to rile up both sides. If his ongoing, progressive cognitive decline has gotten bad enough, he might even go transactional.
It would be around this point that I could see Blue governors begin to make serious plans to leave the Union. A lot would depend on what California was willing to do. But it would definitely make sense that California would be the first state to call a Secessionist Convention in preparation of leaving the Union if the 2024 election is, in fact, stolen.
But by some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you could see some sort of summit of Blue Governors where they debate their plans to leave the Union if the very thing that the MAGA New Right wants — to turn the United States into an autocracy — actually happens.
And as we approached Certification Day in January 2025, the last step in the crisis would happen. If you thought Certification Day 2021 was bad, just wait until Republicans are actively going over and above what they did then when it rolls around in 2025. So, the system will have been corrupted at both the local and state level. And then if that doesn’t work, Republicans will again try to throw the election into the House and Senate to buy time, if nothing else.
So, let me be clear — anyone who thinks we’re going to have some sort of MAGA New Right revolution a la The Turner Diaries — is a fool. Any Second American Civil War we have is probably going to be started by Blue States leaving the Union out of disgust that the fix is in.
Therefore, by the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, it could very well be a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a pretty organized civil war. Republicans have no shame and don’t apparently care about the consequences of their actions, so, lulz, we could find ourselves in the absolute worst of worlds because not only are states actively thinking about leaving the Union around this time, but the whole process of figuring out who is POTUS will be languishing in Congress. Republicans, because they are politically blood thirsty and will cheat, will win the power struggle, but there’s a chance states will begin leaving the Union.
It won’t be deranged, individual MAGA New Right blowing stuff up in some sort of rearguard action. It’s going to be a Blue Nation verses a Red Nation. A lot of the same things that happened in the First American Civil War will happen in the second. The U.S. Military will implode as people from Blue States leave it to establish a new Blue State military.
But one thing we have to expect in late 2024 to early 2025 is a mass migration of people across the country as people no longer feel safe living in an area of the country that doesn’t fit their politics. It could be rather frightening.
If it were, God forbid, to happen, I would guess that a Second American Civil War will begin between Certification Day 2025 and Inauguration Day 2025. In other words, as Trump is being sworn in, mass chaos will have erupted across the United States.
Once the hollowed out American military turns it attention to the Blue rebellion at the behest of Trump, it won’t be too long before WMD are sized and used by both sides. Not only would America bomb itself into oblivion with its eyes wide open, but it will be done in the context of WW3 definitely breaking out across the globe because the US will be too busy imploding to ensure the continuation of the post WW2 global order.
How’s that for a New World Order.
Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.
Oregon The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.
Virginia Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.
Michigan I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.
New York Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.
Maine I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.
Texas Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.
California In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.
The Deep South It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.
As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.
Or, put another way, we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked one way or another. Either we turn into an autocracy or Red and Blue begin to murder each other in cold political blood. The usual outcome of all this bullshit that we have come to expect — simply muddling along until we come to some solution one way or another — is not longer a valid option.
Ok, let’s do a quick overview of where the shadow primary for the Republican presidential nomination stands at the moment.
Trump At the moment, Trump IS the Republican primary in the sense that the real fight is not over who will be the Republican presidential nominee, but who will be Trump’s veep. Everyone knows on a visceral basis that whomever will be Trump’s veep is going to be America’s first autocrat.
DeSantis Even though there seems to be a little bit of a growing choirs of Far Right people who want to move on from Trump, I just don’t see how that is going to happen. Trump is a political monster and he will never leave the arena until something happens that absolute forces him to. Note, however, that Trump will run from prison if he has to. And, if DeSantis did magically get the nomination, Trump would probably bolt the Republican Party altogether for the hypothetical Patriot Party.
Pence I don’t know what is going on with Pence. He seems to be living in a magical political bubble of his own making. He is never going to be a MAGA Republican president. Never. The man is delusional. The only way he ever even gets any sort of nomination is if he is at the head of a Unity Ticket of some sort. And, at the moment, at least, that is never going to happen.
All the other dozen would-be autocrats of the Republican Party seem to be hanging back, in an effort to see what Trump is going to ultimately do. And, in the end, like I said, the issue is going to be more about who Trump picks as his veep than anything else.
I’m beginning to hear some chatter amongst the more conservative factions of the anti-MAGA alliance that when it comes to Trump absconding with Top Secrets to Mar-a-Lago, Biden has an obligation to pardon Trump “for the sake of the nation.”
First, fuck that.
Second, there’s only one way I would agree to such a thing — Trump would have to, legally and in writing, agree to never run for POTUS again. If Biden was to pardon Trump for any reason, Trump would have to agree to go into political retirement, never to be heard from again.
Since he would never do that, I guess Trump won’t get a pardon.
I don’t think we really appreciate what a political monster Trump is. He’s not going anywhere and no matter how much Ron DeSantis or even Mike Pence wants him to get out of the way, he’s not going to. In fact, he would obviously rather burn the United States to the ground than do the right thing and shut up and retire.
As I’ve said before, I enjoy watching the History Matters channel on YouTube and it definitely seems as though I’ve seen this video before when it comes to what’s going on with American politics at the moment. American politics is a dumpster fire which both sides calling the other Nazis and there being an ever-growing risk of stochastic terrorism.
At this point, the question is how long can we hold out? Do we start murdering each other for political reasons because Trump goes transactional or do we somehow make it to 2024 -2025 when Blues begin to call secessionist conventions for a National Divorce and we have a civil war that way? I honestly don’t know, it could go either way.
But I can tell you that it definitely seems as though we’ve given up. That it’s now a foregone conclusion that we either have some sort of civil war or we gradually turn into something akin to a political clone of Russia once a MAGA person becomes POTUS.
I honestly don’t know which direction we’re going to go. But whatever direction we go, a lot of people who have tuned out of politics are in for a rude awaking. The lives of every day Americans will begin to change rather dramatically, no matter which option we choose.
We are in the twilight of the America that we have all assumed we will always live in. The one of peace and prosperity that came about as a result of the Allied victory against the Axis in 1945. We’re totally fucked no matter what happens. The one thing that will not happen is we continue to drift through history. I suppose there is an argument that something might happen that might punt this particular problem down the road one more presidential election cycle, but I doubt it.
The Republican Party is now so radicalized and fascist that all the need to is win one election and that’s all she wrote.
One thing to keep an eye on — if stochastic terrorism really begins to be a big problem in the United States, you could very well see a huge amount of domestic political refugees begin to pop up. Blues in Red States and Reds in Blue States won’t feel safe anymore and they will flee to a state that better fits their political views.
We are beginning to see a little bit of this, in a general way, because of COVID restrictions and, now, the Dobbs decision. But if we really do, as civil wars expert Barbra F. Walter suggests, begin to see Troubles-like violence in the United States, then this process will accelerate dramatically. I’m still not quite prepared to believe we’re going to have a Troubles-like civil war when MAGA is ascendant and they are getting everything they want politically without the need for violence.
But I will admit that the Far Right has lost its fucking mind since the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago. All this talk of “civil war” on MAGA’s part is really about MAGA people wanting to know when the rules of war, rather than crime apply and they can begin to murder people like me in cold political blood without facing any prison time.
Anyway, the point is, enjoy these last few months (days?) of peace in the twilight of Pax Americana. This could change rather dramatically at any moment.
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