Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

My Hot Take On Steve Bannon’s War Room Podcast Episode: ‘Elon Musk Satanic Dreamworld’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve decided to listen to Steve K Bannon’s shitty War Room podcast to get a sense of what we’re up against. The latest episode I’ve listened to on Spotify was interesting for a number of reasons, one of them being how completely fucking bonkers Peter Navarro is. That guy is nuts! Or, at Hope Hicks would say — a hot date.

Peter Navarro believes the Chinese government owes the United States ELVENTIY TRILLIAN DOLLARS. He also, apparently, wants to have a celebrity death match with Dr. Fauci. That, or he wants to hate-fuck him. I can’t quite figure out which one.

Steve K. Bannon

But the thing that shocked me the most was my personal nutty idea of “digital telepathy” made an appearance on the podcast in the third act. To hear someone ELSE say such a bonkers thing in the wild was both unnerving and somewhat validating. Too bad it came out of the mouth of a neo-Luddite.

Speaking of which, I also felt validated by how Bannon is toying with neo-Luddism as a potential political talking point. I have repeatedly written that if Trump was smart — which he isn’t –that he would make common cause with the Far, Far Left and embrace neo-Luddism. But for all his being dumb as a stump, Bannon is kind of his “brain” so I guess it’s possible that at some point Bannon will embrace neo-Luddism.

Overall, Bannon is a very, very bad podcast host because he lies to his guests about having them on again in such a breezy casual manner. And, yet, I guess if you think NewsMax and OANN are liberal shills, then you’ll probably love Bannon’s piece of shit podcast.

The Curious Case Of The Unrung Ding-Dong: Trump As ‘Family Man’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We were so blinded by the astonishing shit-show that was the Trump Era that something you would think would be a gimmie — a massive sex scandal — never happened. I guess Trump was so busy destroying our liberal democracy that he didn’t have time to bang Hope Hicks (the most obvious candidate.)

And, yet, Hitler was faithful to Eva Braun, as best I can recall. And he didn’t drink, just like Trump.

It does make you wonder, though. What would have been the reaction had Trump cheated no just before the election but afterwards? Would it have made any difference at all?

No. I don’t think so.

Our political system is so fucking out of whack that the MAGA New Right would have seen Trump’s in-office cheating of yet more evidence that he is an Alpha Male and, fuck you, soyboy lib. But if a any Democrat did the same thing it would be The End Times.

At this point, I honestly can’t think of anything Trump could possibly do that would cause the 38% of the electorate that constitutes the MAGA New Right base. And, what’s worse, even if you did somehow get rid of Trump, there are a dozen other would-be autocrats in the wings waiting to do what Trump was to stupid to do.

Kristi Noem & Hope Hicks: Corey Lewandowski ‘Bang Bang Sisters?’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

You just can’t make this shit up. I have no idea if Kristi Noem is really having an affair with…ugh…Corey Lewandowski…but I do have some strong opinions about Noem’s potential “bang bang sister,” Hope Hicks.

That girl needs to go to therapy.

Hick’s dating life is a who’s-who of fucking abusive cocksuckers. It’s bad that it would almost be a relief to know that she was at least banging Trump when she wasn’t ironing his pants with him still in them.

Because, let’s be honest — at a minimum, Hick was Trump’s “work wife.” They were dating on an emotional level, if nothing else. I say this because, lulz, Trump is such a fucking piece of shit that it would be out character for him NOT to bang Hope Hicks.

But back to Noem.

I suspect this is all going to be a lulz, if it’s true. If people like Trump can do whatever the fuck they want with their naughty bits, to whomever they want, then, well, why pick on her?

She’s a big old hypocrite, but, then so is the entire Republican Party at this point.

‘Worry’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As of the moment, I believe we’re not going to get the debt ceiling crisis worked out in time and, for the first time, the US is going to default on its debt. Things could change, but the momentum at the moment is definitely towards default.

In other words, we’re fucked.

Pray.

I still doubt there’s going to be a MAGA New Right themed “revolution” anytime soon, but going through a massive global economic crisis of your own making isn’t exactly great for a nation’s stability.

Once you knock out one of the pillars of a stable government — the economy — the entire political system won’t be far behind. I say this, especially since the Republican Party is now a vigilante group that is so wrapped up in negative polarization that it would rather destroy the country than work with Democrats.

I guess what I’m saying is — whatever you would do in preperation of a worst case scenario economic crisis on a personal basis — do that. Now.

‘When is The Second Civil War Starting?’


This is another in my series of answering the searches about a civil war or revolution that bring people to this site. This one was from — you guessed it — Alabama.

Short answer: probably around January 2025, if it happens.

Long Answer: very good question.

That someone in Alabama would casually ask when the Second Civil War is going to start gives you some insight into how bad things are at the moment. But as of right now, I think if we do have a Second Civil War it will happen at some point after Election Day 2024 and before Certification Day in January 2025.

An actual hot civil war in the United States would be only one end of a spectrum of potential outcomes, with the an autocracy being on the other end. And lot depends on what Donald Trump does. If he runs for president again and is the nominee, he is so fucking idiotic and incompetent that he might, just by continuing to be a political force, push the United States into civil war.

But there is always a small chance that well before 2024 – 2025, some unexpected event might start a hot civil war in the United States well before the two sides (or I) expect it. Remember, for it to be a “civil war” you would need a government and troops. If it’s just a bunch of idiots in a rural part of Oregon and that’s it, well, that’s not even a revolution.

You would need some sort of mass attack on the civil Federal authority on a state level for it to be a real “civil war.” And, as such, my best guess is, at the moment, those conditions will be met when the government is at its weakest — between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025.

I will note that I think we’re in a similar situation as about 1857, only things are begin speed up and feel slower because the pace of modern life is so much faster. But, as they say, people go bankrupt gradually then all at once, so it’s possible that my fears about a civil war will be justified a lot sooner than I currently expect.

But something really out of the blue would have to happen for the country to actually have a civil war anytime soon as of late 2021. We’ll see, I guess.

Apostate Republicans Will Lead The Blue States To Victory In The Second American Civil War


by Ender

It’s becoming more and more clear to me that the modern day War Democrats of The Lincoln Project et al will be the leadership of the Blue States if we have a Second American Civil War.

While there are plenty of great center-Left leaders who would rise to the occasion if the shit hit the fan, it’s a tough-as-nails broad like Liz Cheney who will get the fucking job done. I don’t know how it would work, but if we reach a point where the United States is actively attacking itself in a civil war, then principled leadership will rise to the top.

As such, I suspect that ultimately, it won’t be AOC who leads Blue States, but someone like Cheney. There will be endless howls at first from Leftists at such a “betrayal” but when Cheney proves she’s an American Iron Lady they will shut up. I love you, AOC, babe, but you’re still too young, too unfocused and too unserious to get us through a fucking civil war.

U.S. Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) delivers an opening statement during the opening hearing of the U.S. House (Select) Committee investigating the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, on July 27, 2021 at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC. During its first hearing the committee, currently made up of seven Democrats and two Republicans, will hear testimony from law enforcement officers about their experiences while defending the Capitol from the pro-Trump mob on January 6. (Photo by Jim Bourg-Pool/Getty Images)

Cheney, meanwhile, is locked and loaded to destroy the MAGA New Right with everything she’s got.

And it won’t just be Cheney. If things grow existential, most of the Blue State leadership will probably eventually be NeverTrumpers. It will be extremely ironic and probably cause some surreal post-war events as everything snaps back into place, but in the moment of crisis, it will get the job done.

But I’m still being very speculative. It could be that we don’t have a civil war and we simply slip peacefully into autocracy. People like Cheney are either arrested, pushed out a window or exiled and that will be that.

It really could go either way at the moment.

The Electoral College Is Obscuring The Severity Of Our Current Crisis


by Ender

It’s difficult to make a one-to-one comparison between the modern United States and early 30s Germany for one crucial reason: Germany was a parliamentary system, while the United States has an presidential system based on balance of powers and an Electoral College.

A more honest depiction of the American political system on the ground would show the American Fascist Party being the biggest party, only countered — at the moment — by a large center-Left coalition. If we had a parliamentary system like German, we would all be freaking the fuck out a lot more because it would be a lot more obvious how dire our situation is.

The Democratic Party is really a center-Left coalition of anti-fascist parties, socialists, moderates, Labor, etc. That’s why it’s so difficult to get the party to do anything — it’s not even really a party, but a jumble of different smaller parties fused together because of how we election our presidents.

Or, put another way — the Electoral College, on a systemic level, is luling us into a false sense of security. It’s difficult for us to comprehend that one of the two major political parties in the United States no longer believes in democracy and are hell bent on establishing an autocratic White Christian ethno state. They will stop at nothing to do this, to the point that they would rather wreck the world economy than have any form of bipartisanship.

Politics is now dead in the United States. In a post-political environment, you’re pretty much just waiting for some sort of crisis to spark some sort of violent historical event be it revolution or civil war.

Also, note that if we were a parliamentary system it would be a lot more clear how dire things are because it would be growing more and more difficult for us to form a government. What the fascists GQP New Right Republicans are doing with the debt ceiling would have an immediate effect as opposed to causing a crisis that would only be felt at the polls in about a year.

The point is — the United States is far, far more unstable than you might think. At the moment, the only thing holding the country together is, well, the political system that the Electoral College mandates. That’s why the next crisis will be severe and it will happen either in 2022 or 2024.

Things are dark.

Trump Is The GOP & The GOP Is Trump: Liz Cheney, The Only Way You Get Higher Office Is As The Veep In A Unity Ticket Before A Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely feels as though we’ve reached the end of the beginning when it comes to the Final Countdown. What’s it going to be, American history — autocracy or civil war? At the moment, there are too many known unknowns for me to be able to wargame that out.

So, for the moment, I’m at a loss to tell you what to think of Liz Cheney pretty obviously running for POTUS — as a Republican!

As it stands, people are beginning to wake up to the cold hard fact that we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked. And the only unknown is if we get fucked via fascism or fucked via civil war. That’s it. Those are only two options at this point. (I guess, you could say that maybe, just maybe we might get a military junta, but I doubt it.)

Or, put another way, American politics is now very similar to that of around 1857. We all kinda of know that either Slave Power (MAGA) wins a final victory or we hash it out via a civil war that would be extremely high risk, high reward.

Having said all that, Liz Cheney probably has a better shot of becoming President Harris’ Unity Ticket Veep done out of desperation than she does winning the Republican nomination in 2024.

Republicans are so, on a systemic level, unmoored from the traditional concepts of a party that is associated with a liberal democracy that there is no way in hell she could possibly win the Republican nomination. And if Trump bows out for some reason, Republicans are more likely to pick Gen. Mike Flynn as his successor than Liz Cheney.

Let that sink in.

But for anyone paying attention, things are kind of dark right now. Maybe a lot dark. Because all the macro trends point to The Fourth Turning taking place in, as predicted 2025. We’re so totally fucked. Totally, completely, fucked.

We have to stop getting mad on Twitter. Or making fun of the dumb things that the MAGA New Right says or does. Things have gotten serious and existential if you think of yourself as a small-d democrat.

This is it. The frog is dead.

Wargaming A MAGA New Right ‘Revolution’ Of 2021


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, I’m in a writing mood at the moment and so here’s what the fucking MAGA New Right cocksuckers want — a scenario whereby we have some sort of “MAGA New Right Revolution” sooner rather than later.

First, we need to know what the conditions of the scenario will be. The fucking Bannonites want a “revolution” instead of a “civil war,” so to run the scenario we would have fit the definition of a “revolution.” In my view, a revolution tends to be spontaneous and the decision of a lot of individuals all at once. It’s not a government thing — that would be a civil war.

Steve Bannon, wargamer

But the Bannonites want a revolution, so let’s give them one in a scenario. They want it RIGHT NOW, too. They keep searching for “2021 revolution,” not “2024 revolution.” So, by “right now,” let’s say the end of the year.

I’m assuming that the MAGA New Right cocksuckers believe that since everyone THEY know wants to stop fucking their gun long enough to murder dem one of dem dar libtards, that everyone else in the country feels the same way, too. How do we get an actual “revolution” to take place before, say, the end of the year?

Well, a lot — and I mean — A LOT — would have to go wrong.

But one major data point might be the debt celling not being raised. That would be a gut punch to the US economy, which would be a pretty big step towards establishing the conditions for a “revolution.” Yet, still, I struggle the idea that good old boys would risk it all by taking up arms against the U.S. Government en mass to do an actual “revolution.”

I mean, fuck, the MAGA New Right cocksuckers who actually did something about how much they hate liberals — the January 6th Insurrectionists — have all turned out not to be hardened revolutionaries, but crybaby snowflakes who whine about having “anxiety.”

But, let’s press on. Let’s say we have something akin to an economic freefall in the United States starting in mid-October. The places I could maybe see something akin to a populist “revolution” happening would the more rural parts of Oregon and Idaho. Those guys already fuck their guns with their small dicks as it is — they’re chomping at the bit to take up arms.

So, I think maybe something that might be marketed as a “revolution” might start in the states of Oregon, Idaho and Montana. This is where I struggle. If really was a “revolution” you would, essentially, have new revolutionary governments spring up on a local basis that were popular enough that the Federal government couldn’t doing anything about them.

The hope of the MAGA New Right revolutionaries would be, I guess, that similar populist revolts would sweep through the country and Trump would start wearing a beret and Trumplandia would be established.

I guess, in the end, something I just can’t predict would have to happen in the near term for a MAGA New Right “revolution” to happen. Until then, we wait until the Fourth Turning of January 2025 to find out which direction we go.

‘Probability of a Second American Civil War’


by Ender

People keep showing up at this site thinking about civil war and or revolution and I’ve decided to answer these searches each time I get one. So, let’s, again, address the probability of a Second American Civil War.

At the moment, the probability of a Second American Civil war is greater than zero. The question is not so much if one will happen, it’s if it is going to happen, when is it going to happen? For the time being, there are so many known unknowns that I can’t tell you one way or another if we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy or we’re going to have a Second American Civil War. There are too many issues to be settled first.

Of course, it is possible that something out of the blue could force the issue and the country buckles rather abruptly for no other reason than, well, lulz, the MAGA New Right is already locked and loaded to murder like me in cold blood because I have “forced” them to.

But, at the moment, it could go either way. Either we slip peacefully into an autocracy wereby it’s Conventional Wisdom that Republicans will always be in power, no matter what, or the country collapses and we bomb the fuck out of ourselves because…Cancel Culture?

One thing that is not going to happen — our continued muddling through from crisis to crisis. I say this because the Republican Party, on a systemic level, is now a radical fascist organization that is only tempered by it being American. If it was in any other country, it would already be pushing journalists out of helicopters by now.

I do think, however, that things are moving faster than I expected. I don’t know what I feel, but I definitely feel a quickening. We’re racing towards a very dark future and I’m beginning to believe — somehow — we won’t make it to 2024 – 2025. That the decision might be made for us before then.

If we’re lucky, however, we still have a few more years to figure out what we’re going to do when face with either autocracy or civil war.