Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

What’s The Matter With Canada?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I honestly don’t know what’s going on with Canada at the moment, other than what I see passively — and occasionally — on Twitter. I’ve decided to bone up on this issue, however, because things are turning dark rather quickly. My fear is that the truckers who are now apparently camped out around the Canadian Capitol in the middle of winter will radicalize and stage a January 6-like attempted coup.

Given what I know about Canadian politics — that things can change there rather abruptly because of the small population size — my concern is that things might get out of hand a lot sooner than anyone might predict. The next thing you know, some sort of Right wing dictatorship, long predicted for the United States, will happen in Canada (of all places) first.

If something like that did happen, it would only destabilize the United States even more. And, let me be clear, if you’re reading this and getting off on the idea that the United States — or Canada for that matter — might have a Right wing dictatorship soon: please fuck off you piece of shit.

Anyway, the point is — the entire anglophone world is in crisis at the moment for various reasons. New Zealand is the only one that seems to be acting normal at the moment. All the others are veering from crisis to crisis of their own making.

My Hot Take On A Traditionalist Party To Challenge The GQP

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

From what I can tell from talking to my Traditionalist relatives, it would be very, very difficult to pry them away from the GQP. But if I was tasked with doing just that, how would I do it?

It would be extremely difficult.

But, I think, maybe, if you focused on attacking the events of January 6th and how weird and out of character that day was for American politics, you might have a back door of sorts. I know one of my Traditionalist relatives no longer supports Ted Cruz because of his poor performance on that day.

And, yet, Republican Politics is such a shit show that prying conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA away from their current complicit love of MAGA would be extremely, extremely difficult.

In fact, the only wedge you might be able to put between Traditionalists and the GQP is the violence of January 6th. That’s pretty much the only place you can get any votes, I’m afraid. The macro momentum is just too powerful otherwise.

In other words, in every other way, we’re fucked. Totally, completely fucked.

Americans, Worry About Canada


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me begin by saying I’m not an expert on Canadian culture and or politics and this is just a gauzy reflection on what little I know about the place. But the key issue is — the current “Make Canada Great Again” anti-vaccine mandate trucker camp out in Ottawa is dangerous.

I say this because the entire anglophone world is in crisis. And, even more importantly, Canada has such a small population that the whole “5%” of the population rule to make a revolution is even more timely.

So, it’s at least possible to imagine a situation where the truckers spark something that is marketed as a “Right wing revolution” in Canada. This, in turn, would embolden the fucking insane Right wing nutjobs in the United States.

Or, put another way — keep an eye on Canada. It might grow a lot more unstable in the near future than any of us in North America — and beyond — may like.

The ‘Frothy’ Right


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is one of those times when I wish someone was paying to write this post. If that was the case, then I would spend the energy necessary to paint a clear picture of what is going on with this subject.

But, as it is, lulz. Here’s my half-assed, somewhat lazy write up.

See, there is an element of the Right that is way, way, way over stimulated about their fascist inclinations. To the point that they say and do some batshit things in bad faith that even THEY know are dumb. I mean, Dean Cane was involved in a skit at CPAC (I think) one year that was based on the emails of the two FBI lovers that Trump hates so much.

Then there are all these other instances — usually featuring Jesse Kelly — where the froth of the extreme, extreme Right is so dumb and ridiculous that you know that even they get kind of embarrassed by it all soon enough.

Anyway, it’s all very, very dumb. But there’s an audience for such bullshit.

Daydreaming Of A ‘Traditionalist’ Party


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have seen a lot of Twitter liberals have some hope that we might see sort of “constitutional conservative” party that would, in effect, give Traditionalists somewhere for enough presidential election cycles until we get the whole autocracy – anocracy – democracy thing sorted out within the context of the browning of America.

Sad to say, I just don’t see that happening.

It’s delusional and gives the non-Blue Check rubes false hope.

You can’t have a successful party when the only people who support it are the people who are in it. I mean, I can count on one hand the people who would make up the leadership of a Constitutional Conservative Party on one hand. (As an aside, I would call it what it is — the Traditionalist Party. It rolls off the tongue a lot better than Constitutional Conservative.)

But, let’s say the Traditionalist Party ran a Pence / Cheney ticket. How successful might it be? That is a very good question. I honestly don’t know. But it probably would be doomed to failure. The reason is Trump (and supporters of the January 6 Insurrection) have such an absolute death-grip over the Republican Party that I just can’t see much happening.

It all goes back to the fear of the browning of America. That trumps — no pun intended — every other argument. That’s why Traditionalists decided to support Trump — insane tweets and all — in the first place. We’re past the even horizon when it comes to tyranny.

And, in the end, all the Blue Check Twitter liberals who got all excited about this dumb political idea will be the first to leave the country for other, more stable nations — should we have a civil war or finally slip peacefully into autocracy.

My Hot Take On Jonathan Chait’s Hot Take On Ross Douthat’s Hot Take On The Rise Of American Authoritarianism

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I saw this by Jonathan Chait and had to comment.

Even if it were true, a two-party democracy that rests on the authoritarian party never losing isn’t very safe. As democratic safeguards go, it’s the equivalent of the rhythm method of contraception. Its only real advantage is that it allows conservatives to avoid acknowledging a choice between their party and democracy. Maybe things will work out and they can have both!

This is the crux of the issue facing American politics at the moment. We have one party that doesn’t believe in democracy (Republicans) and one that is blissfully unaware of what they’re up against — Democrats.

So, here we are. The only question we have at the moment is, first, are we going to have a civil war or autocracy. Second, the question is, how bad is either one of those choices going to get. Will we bomb ourselves into oblivion if we have a civil war, or will we become a Russia-level autocracy before it’s over with.

Just assuming that the center-Left will continue to win elections forever is not exactly a great way to ensure democracy. So, we’re in trouble. The next few months will become more and more bumpy.

Addressing Traditionalist Arguments


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Both Sides
In this argument, Traditionalists say they’re forced to take the side of the MAGA New Right because “both sides” are now extreme and they would rather there be a white fascist Christian ethno-state than a Leftist government that forces the “woke” agenda down people’s throats. And, of course, something something 2nd Amendment and something something abortion, something something transgender athletes. The flaw with these arguments, to me, is, well the Nazis. There’s a big difference between the de facto assholery of the “woke Leftist mob” and the de jure attacks on freedoms that come as part of any autocratic state. Form follows function, as they say. (This is where the “bogus” argument comes in.)
Debate Nullification (The ‘Bogus’ Argument)
The “Bogus” argument is when a Traditionalists just pretty much says, I don’t care what you’re saying, I don’t believe it and fuck you. They say, in effect, that they’ve made up their minds — they’re throwing their lot with fucking fascist racist bigots and there’s nothing you can say to change their minds. Then you either just stop debating politics or you start screaming at each other.
Being Attacked Just For Being Conservative
This is actually a valid argument. This is actually happening. But I would suggest they use traditional politics to get what they want — by say, changing their general political views and working within the changing demographics of a democracy — than simply burning everything down in a racist, bigoted hissy fit.

My Hot Take On Crooked Media’s Ben Rhodes’ Hot Take On Trump’s Electoral ‘Trap’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a fan of Ben Rhodes and the whole Crooked Media team, but I’m in the middle of listening to the latest Pod Save America and I have to take issue with something he just said.

He apparently wrote in The Atlantic that Trump has set something of a “trap” for center-Left people by making them aware of white identity politics, etc. This, in turn, makes us angry to the point that we alienate the people who would otherwise help us win elections.

I have two things to point out about this.

One is, we’re now an anocracy, to the point that we can no longer work with the assumption that elections will be free and fair in the first place. The 2020 elections could be, in fact, the last free-and-fair national elections that the United States ever has (unless, of course, we have a civil war and sort things out that way.) So, it’s difficult to win elections — no matter what your policies are — when the whole system is run by people on the local and state level who have heeded Steve K. Bannon’s call for an “administrative coup.”

Even if we get past that particular situation, the people that Rhodes is talking about that could be appealed to — people I call “Traditionalists” — no longer believe in democracy anymore. They’re all-in with the fascist MAGA New Right because they’re deathly afraid of white people being in the minority.

So, I just don’t see traditional politics being a viable option anymore for the center-Left. Either be prepared for a civil war or get out of the country. I don’t want a civil war and I think, in the end, many, many, MANY wealthy center-Left people — like Ben Rhodes — will ultimately leave the country.

That’s our future. Listening to Crooked Media through a VPN because fucking fat fuck President Mike Pompeo destroyed America. Good luck.

Trump Is Above The Law

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The following is an example of how Trump always says the quite part out loud — then NOTHING HAPPENS.

Scenario: How An Invasion Of Ukraine May Play Domestically In The United State States


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love to run scenarios, so here’s one about how the American domestic political system might handle a major war in Ukraine. I think the first thing we have to appreciate is how fucked up America is right now. Much, if not all, of our problems with COVID comes strictly from how everything, EVERYTHING, is seen through absolute lens of partisan politics.

This does not bode well for what might happen within the United States if faced with the biggest land war in Europe since WW2. A lot depends on how long the war lasts. If it’s a quick “love tap” on the part of Putin that lasts only a few weeks, then the “rally round the flag” affect would last long enough that we wouldn’t really have any problems.

But if Putin is nuts enough to try to take a huge portion of Ukraine and the war begins to drag out for months or years, then all bets are off. It could be that the United States really is so divided that not even doing something as basic as defending democracy as part of being the lynchpin of the post-WW2 global order is something we can do effectively anymore.

It could be that the war lasts the more the two sides scream hysterically at each other like they do everything else and, well, we — and the Ukrainians — will be fucked. The United States will not only be barely able to help Ukraine, we’ll barely be able to do our job as part of NATO.

All of this, of course, would embolden China in regards to Taiwan. Then we might have TWO major regional wars taking place, which, of course, would be marketed as WW3. Then throw in the DPRK wanting to get in on the action by shooting of ICBMs and testing H-bombs and, well, things would grow very unstable globally very quickly.

I only say all of this because it seems as though the United States is so absolutely divided that there’s no one issue — not even one about life and death like a pandemic — that we’re willing to put aside our political differences long enough to address. Doesn’t exactly make me feel too secure going forward into a potential major war in Europe.