Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

Conditions Exist For A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On an abstract level, the United States is primed and ready for a civil war. But for the moment, however, “civil war” is nothing more than a rhetorical flourish for Far Right idiots who now glorify political violence. They see a civil war as the logical endgame of their hatred for liberals and anyone else who won’t “just leave them alone.”

The reason for this is, just like how the Insurrection Act wasn’t magical pixie dust that Trump could invoke to take “total control,” the people among the Right who now long for a civil war haven’t really thought through things. All they know is they hate liberals, love Trump and are violently frustrated at things like “the Great Replacement.” That, and, of course, they have small dicks and can’t get laid.

Anyway, the most obvious moment that a civil war might erupt in the United States is in the 2024-2025 timeframe. It’s very easy to imagine MAGA Republicans nullifying a Biden reelection, bungling the otherwise inevitable transition to autocracy and causing a civil war. I’ve come to believe that this won’t happen because the MSM has a vested interest in at least pretending that things are “normal” on an institutional level. So, it’s easy to imagine Republicans brazenly stealing the 2024 election and the MSM telling everyone that this is just the New World we live in and we just have to accept it.

So, in a sense, we have a few years before we have to worry seriously about a Second American Civil War.

And, yet, there is the Cyber Ninjas sham audit taking place in Arizona. The other scenario would be something like Cyber Ninjas “prove” that Trump “won” Arizona and Trump grows hysterical. He begins to rant that this “proves” he “won” the entire election. Then we have a situation similar to January 6th, only on a national level.

Political opportunists pop out across the country and MAGA controlled state legislatures begin to convene conventions to debate “nullification” of the Biden Administration’s win — even though this is complete bullshit and has zero basis in law. Soon enough, of course, these nullification conventions become secessionist conventions and we have a civil war.

And, yet, there is a lot about this scenario that I can’t game out. There is a hard core group of MAGA elected officials who have political bloodlust for an autocracy. But for them to go against all logic to actually attempt to leave the Union, knowing how unlikely their victory would be, is something else altogether. All I know is once Cyber Ninjas “prove” Trump “won” Arizona, we may have to all hold our breath a few days to see which way things fall.

But one thing we have to take seriously, no matter what, is MAGA Republicans want an autocracy. They no longer believe in liberal democracy. They are fascists. If we manage to make it to 2024-2025, they will use every fascist trick in the book to strangle our already barely functioning liberal democracy to establish a MAGA autocracy.

Again, I’m not smart enough to tell you what to do about any of this. If I was, I would be writing for VOX.

Louie Gohmert And Government By Gesture


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something that political Twitter is too often oblivious to is how all these dumb comments that MAGA politicians utter aren’t nearly as stupid as you might think. Things have gotten so tight and divided in our political system that honestly all people like Louie Gohmert want to do is somehow get the words “cancel culture,” “critical race theory,” “BLM” and “Antifa” in a sentence, any sentence so they can bait the MAGA base into hysterics.

MAGA policitains honestly don’t care about anything they say. Most of them aren’t nearly as stupid as they seem — craven, yes, stupid, no. Ideas like “cancel culture” and “critical race theory” are the clit of the MAGA base. Just the mere mention of them — even if the result is ostensibly word salad — is enough to get the MAGA base hyperventilating in hate-fueled pleasure.

In the end, of course, the question is once the politics of gesture succeeds in handing Republicans power again, do they ever let it go? And if they don’t do we simply slip into autocracy or we do we have a civil war? I’m beginning to believe that we’re just going to peacefully slip into autocracy and that will be that. MAGA Republicans will, at last, achieve minority control of the country and that will be that.

But while we wait for that to happen — we need to stop giggling at how stupid people like Rep. Gohmert appear.

MAGA Fascist Form Follows Function


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I talk to my far more conservative relatives about the dark path that MAGA is leading us down and a recurring defense they use is sort of, “Oh, that would never happen.” This, in large part, is a function of the extensive permission structure that’s been built up specifically to allow conservative people who are turned off by MAGA to turn around and vote for Trump anyway.

And, I have to admit, that while Trump is definitely “autocratic friendly” in the end, he was just too dumb and lazy to follow through on his more extreme anti-democratic rhetoric.

I feel, however, that anyone who lulzes the dangers of MAGA, ignores how on an systemic level, the Republican Party is now hell bent on establishing a “blood and soil” white Christian ethno state in the United States. Political history teaches us that form follows function and, as such, once MAGA inevitably comes to power again that what Trump only talked about in the past is going to become a reality.

The autocratic forces at work in the United States are just too strong. Historical determinism would suggest that there will come a point when all my dystopian hellscape scenarios are going to come true. And that’s when I wonder how my conservative relatives are going to react.

What I think is going to happen is they will become, at last, “Good Germans.” They will generally be pleased with how they can finally sleep tight at night because MAGA has eliminated any possibility of them being “canceled” simply for being conservative. Any excesses on the part of MAGA will be justifiable because the boarders will be secure, abortion will be illegal and elections “secure.”

I, being an anti-MAGA loudmouth, see things dramatically different. What is nothing more than an abstract for my conservative relatives is very concrete for me. I have no idea what the specifics of any of this will be, but the case could be made that at some point President Pompeo or President Cotton will purge the media in some way and then weaponize the existing ICE infrastructure.

As such, it’s very possible there will come a moment when my conservative relatives will be required to weigh their personal needs with my political transgressions in this new, dark MAGA fascist era. I’ve already told at least one of them to just turn me in. I know that sounds hysterical right now, but I’d much rather be turned in by my Good German relatives than have them beg me to shut up for the sake of the family.

It’s just not going to happen.

I often weigh how long, exactly, it might take for this “form follows function” concept to turn us in to what MAGA wants us to be –an Americanized version of Putin’s Russia. I struggle with this because it’s very possible that for some time after we become an autocracy, MAGA autocrats won’t really touch the one thing that would make people sit up and take notice: the First Amendment.

For some time, they would likely be quite content to weld hard power via law and policy and laugh at Twitter liberals who freak out at this or that autocratic thing that has been implemented. A lot of how this would actually go down depends on the personality quirks of whichever autocrat in waiting happens to finally ascend the throne.

But, my rough estimate would be we would gradually grow more autocratic and then suddenly get REALLY autocratic. My guess right now is this would happen when the MAGA fascist leader we finally elect demands a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balance budget amendment.” They will get their convention, then it will turn around and enshrine MAGA into law for good.

Then things are really going to get shitty for people like me.

Yet, I’m sketching out things that will likely happen at some point between now and, say, 2041. Of course, there is the other option, which is we have a civil war and after we bomb the hell out of each other, we sort things out and gradually go back to the way things were. But that would be a tragedy and I’d prefer not to go through that hell.

Anyway. Good luck, guys.

Slouching Towards Trumplandia: Trump Remains An Incredibly Dangerous Political Force


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s easy for Twitter liberals to dismiss Trump as political has been and fool. But once you stop looking at him on a personal level and begin to understand that he’s seen as something of a political totem for alarmed white middle-class conservative Christians, you begin to realize how dangerous he remains.

These white middle class conservative Christians see Trump as a flawed fighter for “real America.” They’re worried, on an abstract level, about the browning of America and how fast America is changing on a social level. Of course, they just look at people like me when I point out that they’re really afraid of losing power. They don’t look at it in those terms. They just know how Trump makes them feel and everything else is rationalization.

But wait, it gets worse.

Now that Trump has shown the way, the Republican Party on a systemic level now has wrapped itself not just with the flag, the Bible and the Constitution, but Trump himself. MAGA has metastasized within the Republican Party to the point that Trump is the Republican Party and the Republican Party is Trump. This has happen to the point that Trump has done his job. Even if we magically ended his political career somehow, there are literally a dozen other would-be Republican autocrats waiting in the wings to finish the job Trump started.

Each of them has their personality quirks, but their goal would be the same — to ensure white conservative Christian rule for generations to come.

And, to be honest, given how the Democratic Establishment and the MSM are not taking any of this all that seriously, I think in the end our liberal democracy will die not with a bang but with a whimper — it will simply become conventional wisdom that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if Democrats also control Congress.

Given that Republicans are actively suppressing the vote and gerrymandering, this type of synchronicity will grow increasingly difficult to accomplish. People will grow disillusion with voting altogether. In the end, the media with be purged and Republicans will demand a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment.” This reasoning will be a ruse, of course, and they will enshrine MAGA into the Constitution.

Given what I have to work with at the moment, this definitely seems the ultimate endgame for the United States. We will find our Putin and he will serve for decades. There will be the occasional protest, but nothing will come of it. The existing ICE infrastructure will be weaponized and people like me will start to get pushed out of windows because we refuse to fucking shut up.

But this hasn’t happen yet. The case could be made that there is a 50/50 chance that during the final transition to autocracy, a lot of people on the center-Left who are oblivious to all of this will suddenly get woke. This is when we come to our other possible scenario: civil war.

I’m growing to believe this is far less likely than I once did. For there to be a civil war, one of two things would have to happen. One, MAGA would need to strike too early. This might happen if Trump got his “win” in Arizona via Cyber Ninjas sham recount and he was able to force MAGA state legislatures to attempt to “nullify” the Biden Administration. The other way would be an unexpected “Great Man (or Woman)” who would step in a just the right moment to defend our dying liberal democracy and help us fight back the cold, dark waters of tyranny. Call this the Lincoln Option.

I just don’t see either one of those happening. We’re going to gradually, then all at once, turn into a white Christian ethno state. At first, things won’t really change that much and we’ll still have the trappings of a liberal democracy but as the years grind on form will follow function and in about 20 years we’ll wake up in Trumplandia.

Prove me wrong.

I Struggle To Understand MAGA — A Lot


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Because of the quirks of my own personal history, if I were to become MAGA I would have an extensive support network of friends. I would stop alienating people who like me on a personal level, but don’t like my politics. So, by continuing to be anti-MAGA I’m only hurting myself.

As such, I often find myself — against my better judgement — struggling to figure if I’m missing something. Are they right? Why do I continue to put myself in a corner when my life would be demonstrably better if I just became MAGA and agreed with all these people who otherwise would be my friends.

I say this because there are a lot of things coming out of the center-Left echo chamber that really gets on my nerves. So, in a sense, not only would my personal life be better, but the case could be made if I could somehow square the circle when it came to MAGA then maybe my political life would make a lot more sense, too.

But every time I do this, logic and reality make it damn near impossible for me to do this. There simply is no way to rationalize supporting an idiot racist misogynist bigot grifter like Trump. This makes me struggle more. Why are all these people — many of them good natured, educated people — so wrapped up in their devotion to a ding-dong like Trump? What am I missing?

All I got is there are a combination of things that came to a head in 2016 that continue to influence events. A lot of white people who don’t see themselves as racist are alarmed by how fast America is browning. Something about the social changes of the second Obama Administration really frightened a lot of middle class conservative white Americans. As such, while they are often disgusted by Trump the person, there is a well developed permission structure established that allows them to hold their nose and support MAGA as a movement.

I don’t even know if a lot conservatives who effectively are MAGA even see themselves as such. They like Trump the “idea” but they don’t like Trump on a personal level. But what’s the “idea” of Trump that they’re so infatuated with? It seems as though a lot of white, Christian conservatives feel overwhelmed, on an abstract way, with the changes going on in American society and because Trump is a “fighter” for “real America” they support him.

Among the things that are so alien to me relative to this train of thought is that people who otherwise seem sane and normal to me are willfully allowing a demonstrably autocratic ding-dong continue to have sway over our politics. What exactly is Trump a fighter, for? What is at the heart of these all consuming abstract fears that white Christian conservatives are so terrified by? What would be so terrifying to them that when you confront them with this or that cruel thing Trump did while as president they embrace it, even though they call themselves Christians?

There’s just so much to unpack. But it definitely seems as though a lot of white Christian conservatives don’t really even know what is upsetting them so much that they support MAGA — they just know that, in general, that they don’t agree with what’s going on. A frequent refrain from MAGA people is they “just want to be left alone.”

This “just be left alone” mantra is another thing I struggle with. It seems like such an all-purpose complaint to describe any time where white Christian conservatives don’t feel comfortable, and, by extension, feel “oppressed.” The shorthand that white Christian conservatives use to describe this is “cancel culture.” And, to be fair, the thing they’re so afraid of — that something they say or do that they don’t think is wrong will go viral and ruin their life — has a grain of truth to it. There are limited, specific examples of conservatives getting in trouble for not following the media narrative and, as such, losing their job or whatever.

But not enough of a grain of truth to hand power to fascist MAGA for any reason. And, yet, here we are. That’s exactly what they want to do. They’re so paranoid about being “canceled” just for being conservative that they are willing to turn the United States into a white Christian autocratic ethno state. They look at modern Russia and see it as their goal for America. They’re willing to turn the United States from an idea, a melting pot, into an autocratic state based on the idea of blood and soil.

I’m beginning to feel a political existential dread about America’s future. I don’t know the ultimate end game or how far we’ll slide into an autocratic managed democracy, but the conditions are there for Republicans to at some point establish minority rule in the United States that will last for generations.

But I also am done arguing. The two side’s positions have hardened to the extent that debating politics is a moot point. Which, in itself, is a bad sign for our democracy.

So, Could Trump Become Speaker Of The House?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Could Trump become Speaker of the House? The short answer is, of course, yes. But it’s a lot more complicated than you might think. The rumor we’re hearing now is he would run for a House seat so he could get the job. But that’s kind of besides the point.

Given that Trump has some serious autocratic inclinations — even if he is really fucking lazy — it would be far easier for him just to demand being named Speaker should House Republican win the chamber. (Nowhere in the Constitution does it say the Speaker have to actually be a House member.) It’s kind of a historical gimmie that they will, so it’s very possible that Trump will really screw over his lapdog Kevin McCarthy by stealing a position that should rightfully be his.

Now, the ominous implication of all of this is the reason Trump would want the job is so he could short circuit the Constitution by leading an impeachment charge against Biden and Harris so he could be come POTUS via the line of succession. This is a classic late-stage democracy play by a would-be autocrat. I will note, in passing, that the very thing we were always afraid the Republicans would do if Speaker Nancy Pelosi ever found herself in a position to become president –challenging the Constitutionality of the Presidential Secession Act — Democrats might do in this situation. Though, come to think of it, SCOTUS is now full of MAGA hacks, so lulz.

As such, we need to take this possibility seriously. It’s very easy to imagine Trump becoming Speaker, impeaching both Biden and Harris and then ranting hysterically about MAGA needing to “protect the 2nd Amendment” in such a way that there’s enough political violence across the country that the Senate convicts both Biden and Harris simply to protect the nation from a civil war.

I say this only because MAGA is now American fascism. It’s an Americanized version of the Nazi Party in 1933. The only thing stopping Trump from doing any of this is he’s extremely lazy and — and stupid. So, I can come up with all the hysterical dystopian political hellscapes I want to, but in the end, Trump could be so fucking lazy as to bungle even something as obvious as this.

So, I dunno.

Call MAGA What It Is: American Fascism


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s been a struggle to get mainstream media to get to the point where it calls the “untruths” that Trump has said over the last five years what they are: lies. And, as such, I don’t have a lot of hope that MSM will ever get around to calling MAGA what it is: fascism.

The upsetting thing about all of this is, of course, the last time fascists won an election — in Germany of 1933 — there were some pretty extraordinary circumstances involved. But in the case of the United States, fascists will come to power because of one of the major parties of our undead liberal democracy would rather establish minority autocratic rule than let scary brown people and women gain any additional power.

All of this is happening, it seems, because a lot of white middle class people are terrified, in an abstract fashion, with the social changes taking place in what they feel is an alarming rate. Something about Obama winning re-election in 2012 was some sort of weird racist wake up call for people like that. And most of them can’t even articulate in any concrete terms the origin of their intense negative polarization. They would never admit that they’re racist, or misogynistic — they don’t even believe in systemic racism or sexism in the first place!

So, a lot of well intentioned conservative white people feel as though they don’t have any other option than to vote in fascist MAGA. Just from my casual conversations with my conservative relatives they are really terrified by the idea of being “canceled” — and having their life ruined — just for being conservative.

And that’s how America turns into a fascist state. Or we have a civil war. I continue to vacillate wildly in my mind between thinking we’re going to slip silently into autocracy and thinking we’re going to have a civil war.

I still honestly don’t know which one is going to happen.

‘Flughazi’ & The Rise of American Fascism


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

MAGA Republicans have already telegraphed their intentions for Dr. Fauchi. The moment they are swept into power in 2023, all their going to do is drag him in front of every possible committee to yell at him. In fact, the only thing that will stop them from just forcing him to testify at every possible turn will be their efforts to impeach both Biden and Harris.

It’s shit like this that gives one pause for thought.

Republicans are so craven, so fascist in their inclinations that I have begun to question if they will ever let go of power, any power that they get once they have it going forward. We have to take their fasciation with Russia seriously — they really do want to turn the United States into an autocratic white Christian ethno state like Russia.

Democrats are just too limp wristed, to beholden to staying within conventional wisdom and trying to find some sort of bi-partisanship. If I had my way, Democrats would get woke and take the vicious nature of Republicans at face value. I’m aware that there’s a huge downside to this — once BOTH sides fight dirty, then politics collapses and you, well, uhhh, fight things out through a force of arms.

Let me put it another way — it seems obvious to me that we’re lurching towards an existential choice of autocracy or civil war. I would much rather go down fighting — if Republicans are determined to destroy everything in an effort to establish white minority rule, then we should at least be prepared to make it as difficult as possible for them to do it.

But in the near term, Republicans are going to wallow in their new narrative that the Deep State and Dr. Fauchi released COVID19 from the Wuhan Lab specifically to bring down Trump. I get the sense that some pretty mainstream Republican media outlets essentially imply this already. It will be all we hear about once MAGA Republicans control Congress again.

The fact that Trump’s incompetency directly lead to 500,000 additional, unnecessary COVID19 deaths will be a lulz to them.

Known Unknowns Of Trump’s Belief He Will Be ‘Reinstated’ By August


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have gamed out in pretty explicit detail on this blog my fears about what might happen this year should Cyber Ninjas “prove” that Trump “won” Arizona. It doesn’t matter that the whole thing is a fraud and a sham done to further Trump’s Big Lie that the 2020 election was stolen from him — all he needs is a win, any win and he will hysterically say he is still “really” president.

Oh, now take a deep breath.

The crux of the crisis we may be facing is…then what? Trump’s popularity outside of the violent MAGA personality cult is seemingly at a historic low. And, yet, even at this nadir, Trump’s devotees are still a solid 20-30% of the electorate. Given that political science tells us it only takes an organized 5% of the population to take over a country, if Trump really leans into his bonkers belief that he has to be reinstated, well, we could be fucked.

Logically, Trump taking the sham Cyber Ninjas “win” and running with it to make surreal declarations about his return to the presidency would have him laughed off the public state. Or, at least, would be ignored to the point that the only place he can rant about it in public is OAN, NewsMax or FOX News. And, yet, this is Trump we’re talking about.

The Republican Establishment lives in abject fear of Trump because they’re afraid that if they don’t kowtow to him, he will bolt the party, taking a huge chunk of the Republican Party with him. As such, his hold over the Republican Party is near Hitler over Germany in early 1945 levels. It’s very easy to imagine that Trump might pull off one last hat trick and get elected Republicans across the country to entertain his insane rantings to the point that they convene some sort of conventions to study the idea of “nullifying” the Biden Administration.

Or something. Whatever method they picked, it would happen spontaneously and, at first at least, be done to “own the libs” and provoke a lot of ridicule from said libs. My fear is, all of this will turn pretty serious — and dark — pretty soon when suddenly what started off as a joke turns into a secession crisis.

As an aside, this does make one wonder which state might be the first to actually jump off the cliff for Trump and attempt to secede from the Union. There are so many to choose from. South Carolina seems the one to have some sort of historical reason for doing it for obvious reasons. But, of course, its large minority population would never stand for it. Then there’s Texas, which likes to think it has one foot out the door already. But while hysterical Texas Republicans talk a good game, the state is shifting blue too fast and it’s difficult for me to imagine them actually pulling it off. That leaves the small population, lily white plains states. I could see maybe Montana, Idaho, Montana or South Dakota being the state to break that particular glass.

And now we come to the part I don’t know what to expect — is it even possible that MAGA will “cross the Rubicon” and follow the Dear Leader towards the path of actual disunion?

That very important element of this dystopian hellscape scenario I simply can’t figure out. It’s possible, I guess, that Trump will finally saunter into political irrelevance when he demands he be “reinstated” or the Biden Administration be “nullified” and…nothing happens. Or, put another way, Trump’s power outside the MAGA base evaporates when this happens. Meanwhile, within the base, the fact that this didn’t happen will be see as yet another grievance to be thrown onto the funeral pyre.

So, I dunno. It really could go either way. Which, unto itself, is rather dark and disturbing. When the richest, most powerful country in the world has a 50/50 chance of a severe political crisis within days or weeks, that does tend to make one sit up and take notice.

‘Stop Being Poor’ — MAGA’s Views On Poverty Are Bonkers


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s becoming clear to me that the political divisions in the United States are hardening. I say this because those times I’ve spoken to MAGA people of late, I realize I’m wasting my energy. They have their orthodoxly, and I have mine.

But, sometimes, I have to vent. Sometimes, their augments are so batshit bonkers that I have to write about them.

Recently, I saw a middle class MAGA person give the spicy hot take that said, essentially, that poor people in the United States are ungrateful mooches. They should be grateful that the meager life they live as a poor person in a First World nation is better than a rich person in a Third World country. Or, actually, if I recall correctly, the actual argument was poor people in the United States are making more than a lot of rich people in Third World countries.

The stupid, it burns.

This type of thinking is so goddamn stupid that I can only guess that it comes from when MAGA only talk to people who agree with them. This line of reasoning conflates things so badly and is so poorly thought out that it really fucking grates on my nerves.

You see, there’s this thing called the cost of living. And just because you are making a certain amount of money on government assistance in the United States and that that would be some sort of extravagant life elsewhere, that doesn’t mean that it’s any easer to feed yourself where the fuck you are.

Idiots!

And, yet, trying to point any of this out to MAGA people is a waste of time. Most of MAGA’s political arguments are little more than grunts mixed with a shit tone of self-serving rationalization.