Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

The Radicalization of Traditionalists Is Alarming

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems as though the 2024 election will be decided because of macro political, historical and demographic trends, barring some black swan event that I can’t predict. As such, I’m inclined to believe Trump is going to win simply because of bad vibes, if nothing else.

Traditionalists are so upset over the browning of America, the “gay agenda” and the secularization of the country that they feel as though they have no choice but to support a fucking tyrant like Trump. They rationalize the dangers of giving Trump a second term by saying, lulz, he was all talk the first time, of course he’ll be all talk the second time.

Yikes.

From personal experience, it definitely seems as though Traditionalists — who are the bedrock of any stable democracy — are so weirded out by the extremes of the “woke cancel culture mob” that they are willing to give up their democratic American birthright. As such, we’re pretty much fucked.

Having said all that, we also have to admit to ourselves that if Trump goes full tyrant on us in 2025, that there is a real chance that some pretty unprecedented things might happen — up to and including Trump being deposed in some way. That, in turn would cause a civil war to happen.

Or not. I can’t predict the future.

But the fact remains — late 2024, early 2025 could be up there with the Russian Revolution in terms of jaw dropping, history making events. The key thing is Trump is telegraphing what he wants to do in a second term. As such, I just can’t believe that Trump could go full tyrant without there being some severe consequences.

The United States is just too big, too diverse and has too strong a tradition of democracy for us to just shrug and accept Trump being a tyrant overnight. If he does a “shock and awe” attack on the institutions of the United States there will be consequences for everyone involved.

And, yet, it hasn’t happened yet. There remains a chance that somehow, someway, we’ll muddle through things like we have done so many times in the past.

But I am worried this time could be different, very worried. And the key thing to look for is how Traditionalists respond when Trump begins to snatch people off the street. Things would have to get REALLY BAD for Traditionalists to sit up and take notice.

If Trump starts to arrest people he doesn’t like, the first thing radicalized Traditionalists will say is Trump is just using “lawfare” against people he doesn’t like, just like Biden supposably did (in their view.) As such, it will be interesting to see how fucking bad things will have to get before Traditionalists begin to question their decision to go all-in on Trump.

I suspect only if it gets personal will they care. They will be Good Germans until they, personally, have to deal with some tyrannical thing Trump has done. THEN they might begin to second guess their decision to support MAGA fascism.

But only then.

Political Event Horizon

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, the old adage is you go bankrupt gradually then all at once. The closer we get to Election Day 2024, the more I find myself worrying about how surreal late 2024, early 2025 may be.

The thing is — I can’t predict the future, so I just don’t know what is going to happen.

Our best case scenario is Biden wins, Trump rants a lot about a National Divorce…and no one listens to him. Then Biden manages to live long enough into his second term that there is a reasonably stable transition to Kamala Harris.

But that is really, really the best case scenario. There is a lot of evidence to suggest there is a non-zero chance that some pretty fucking dramatic things might happen, no matter who wins in 2024. If Trump loses, we may have a civil war. If Trump wins, we may have a Blue Revolution…and then a civil war.

They key thing to consider, as I’ve mentioned before, is the fact that on an institutional basis the Republican Party has grown both radical and beholden to Trump to the point that even though the average MAGA person might not be willing to fight it out in the streets, the state Republican Parties are so radical that they may force the issue one way or another.

And, remember, all of this is happening because of vibes. Republicans — because of the browning of America and the increasing secularization of society along with the widespread adaption of feminism — feel put upon. They often don’t even know why they’re so angry, but they are.

I like to speculate that the issue is angry white Christian (men) just don’t want to talk about abortion or gay rights. They don’t mind if you have an abortion, they just don’t want to have to think about it. They want it to be a deep personal shame that requires you to “leave town,” only to return with everyone giving you the stink eye.

The same with being gay. They, on a personal basis, don’t mind if you’re gay, but they want it to be a deep personal shame. They want it to be something done in secret that is only whispered about.

And that goes for a whole list of other things that divide America at the moment. And, of course, some of all of this is just people are getting old and they don’t understand the Youngs and their newfangled world views.

Anyway, I’m growing ever more alarmed at what is happening politically in the United States. It will be interesting to see if we make out alive. I would like to query a novel in peace and quiet.

Everything Is So Fucked Up

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgerner

Trump is just a symptom of a broader problem in American politics. That is what makes Trump such a curious political figure. He is not a Great Man of history, he’s just a very lucky ding-dong who serves as an avatar for the rage of white Christians (men) who feel disenfranchised on a personal basis by the “woke cancel culture mob.”

That is why American democracy is on the verge of collapse. That is why we’re just one election away from imploding as a nation — not Trump.

All the potential solutions to this particular problem just aren’t applicable anymore. It’s clear that the final showdown between the forces of democracy and fascism is just a matter of time now. It’s not like I want this to happen, but I just can’t see MAGA fading peacefully into political oblivion if we manage to win in 2024.

I hope I’m wrong. I hope that we win in 2024 and MAGA peacefully drifts into political obscurity and that will be that. But, I fear, the best case scenario is Trump rants about the need for a National Divorce and everyone just ignores him. Then he turns around an announces for 2028.

The Power Of Right Wing Podcasts Is Very Real

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is interesting how my far more conservative relatives — who I love dearly — often go out of their way to note that they don’t watch Fox News. What they fail to say by stating this is they DO listen to Right Wing podcasts that pretty much echo all talking points found on Fox New.

The thing that a lot of smug Twitter liberals are oblivious about is the fact that there are a lot of people who aren’t dumb or ignorant but who support Trump’s policies — if not the man. That cold, hard fact is probably one of the most dangerous issue floating around the American body politic as we careen towards the 2024 election.

All the Right Wing echo chamber — podcasts included — do is give Traditionalists an extensive permission structure to do what they probably were inclined to do anyway — vote for Trump.

The Far Left’s Anger Over The War In Gaza Is Justified, But Leads To Some Extremely Misguided Demands

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The rage against President Biden on the part of Far Left people over the war in Gaza is a prime example of how we live in an age devoid of nuance. These Far Left people are so angry at Biden for his Middle East policies that they openly vow never to vote for him.

This is very, very misguided for a number of reasons.

If we lived in era devoid of any nuance at all, then these Far Left people would make it clear what this threat was about — trying to get Biden to adjust his support for the Israeli government. But, no, they are so bonkers that that they just vow to either vote for Trump, a third party candidate or not vote at all — and then they get really mad when you say you’re going to vote for Biden.

The issue for me is Trump is an existential threat not just to American democracy — but the post World War Two global order. I would much rather have someone sane like Biden in power than deranged ding-dong Trump. And, what’s more, it’s not like Trump is going to turn his back on the Israeli government and support the Palestinians. Trump’s politics are far closer to Bibi Netanyahu than Biden’s.

The motives behind opposing Biden because of Gaza are so ill conceived, conflated and misguided that it’s really difficult to comprehend why anyone would think such a thing. And, yet, that’s the world we live in at the moment. And all of this is happening in the context of the United States careening towards what could be some of the most momentous months in our history starting in late 2024, early 2025.

Fascist Tech Bros Are Lining Up Behind Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If ever there was a sign that America has collectively given up, it’s the way that wealthy tech bros — who should know better — are now all-in for malignant ding-dong Trump. It’s a very curious development, to say the least.

But here we are, with plutocrat and former Paypal HR guy David Sacks arranging a big fundraiser for Trump. The whole thing is surreal. It is staggering to me that people like Sacks who are smart enough to know better, are willing to support someone has racist and dumb as Trump…just because they want lower taxes?

And, yet, that doesn’t really even begin to address the broader problem — Sacks and his ilk are also openly supporting Putin in his war of aggression against Ukraine.

All of this is an eerie replay of what happened with Hitler and German Industrialists who supported him because they thought they could “control him.” It’s all very bonkers.

I don’t know what to tell you. We continue to be in a situation where the 2024 election could go either way. And, if anything, I think that’s the key thing to remember — if every election your democracy has is existential, then you’re not really a democracy anymore.

And that’s the long term issue that the United States faces — a sizable portion of the electorate wants a white Christian ethnostate and that danger isn’t going to end anytime soon, even if we crush Trump at the polls later this year. Even if we manage to defeat Trump in November and he doesn’t start to rant about the need for a National Divorce in an effort to escape prison time, he is probably going to run again in 2028 — even if he has to do it from prison.

Thinking The Unthinkable: A Tie

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The idea of an Electoral College tie is not a new one, but given how perilously close the United States is to a MAGA Nazi dictatorship, the idea that we would have to deal with such a thing is even more alarming.

If there is a tie, the House would decide the presidency, while the Senate would decide who would be veep. But, of course, it’s actually lot more complicated than that because the president would be decided by state delegations to the House, rather than a simple majority.

As such, each state would have one vote.

If this were to happen, it’s clear that Trump would be elected POTUS.

And, yet, the wildcard might be the Senate. It’s at least possible that in some effort to placate an angry populace, that the Senate might name Kamala Harris as Trump’s veep. This would set up the surreal situation where Trump might go full tyrant us, cause the US to come to the brink of civil war…then he might abruptly shuffle off this mortal coil and Harris would have to clean up the mess.

As an aside, I think we have to appricate that Trump’s ultimate historic purpose could be to simply break the Constitution to the point that we feel forced as a nation to go back to the drawing board with a Constitutional Convention. As I’ve suggested before, Trump could, in the end, be something of an American Caesar in the sense that he ultimately is nothing more than a transitional figure who destroys the Republic, causing something new to take its place.

There is a spectrum of possibilities. Everything from the founding of a Third Republic to a complete and total slide into a white Christian ethnostate.

But that is a great deal of speculation. I have no idea what is going to happen.

Vibes Are Destroying America

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can not stress enough how corrosive “bad vibes” are to the United States at the moment. Time and again, that is essentially why my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — are concerned about: vibes. They feel put upon and slighted, but don’t quite know why.

Mood.

Take, for instance, two important issues of the day — gay rights and abortion rights.

In both instances, I get the sense from my conservative relatives that the issue is more one of vibes than anything else. They do a lot of reserve engineering to accommodate their alarm over the “vibes” associated with these two hot button issues, but vibes are still what’s going on.

When it comes to gay rights, it definitely seems as though my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — don’t really have a problem with gay rights, they just don’t want to hear about it. They think being gay should be a secret shame that people have to struggle with, not something they’re proud of.

Meanwhile, abortion is pretty much the same thing.

On at least once instance, I’ve had a far more conservative relative — whom I love dearly — essentially say they just didn’t like having to hear about abortion. While in the abstract they are totally, 100% against abortion, in practical terms, I suspect if someone close to them needed to get an abortion for some reason, it would be dealt with in private — but it would happen.

Now, obviously, what I find surreal about vibes being a problem with abortion for conservatives is they fail to realize that abortion has always been a political firebreak for contraception. So, now that Roe has been overturned, we’re racing towards a moment in time when all forms of contraception, even for married people, will be in legal jeopardy.

But the problem with vibes is driving Traditionalists into the arms of MAGA Nazis at an alarming rate. And because of the hazy nature of “vibes” it’s really difficult to do anything about. The seeming obsession that the cultural Left has with Drag Storytime and that sort of thing that really riles Traditionalists up doesn’t exactly help the situation.

There’s just no solution, as best I can tell. And it’s only going to get worse one way or another. We continue to careen towards a minority majority nation and the basic tenants of feminism are here to stay. This happens as growing number of young men feel as though their traditional role as breadwinner is out of their reach.

And just wait until the Incel movement fuses with sexbots. That could be a severe social problem in the next decade or so — growing numbers of young men will simply buy a sexbot that they program to be whatever they want them to be, causing them to give up on women — and having babies — altogether.

‘April 2025’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are a series of milestones during the year that mark the progression of the year for me. One of these markers is my high school’s homecoming. That happens this weekend and it causes me to think about a year from now and to wonder what the world will look like in April 2025.

Mood.

It could very well be that all my “hysterical doom shit” will turn out to be just that and we’ll somehow muddle through to the point that a year from now won’t be much different from today.

But there is a greater-than-zero chance that things may be so fucked up the next time my high school has its homecoming that either it doesn’t happen or the context will be so different that I won’t really feel like going. I don’t think we appreciate how crazy things could get starting in late 2024, early 2025.

And the craziness could happen if Trump wins or loses. If he loses, he could demand a National Divorce to stay out of prison and if he wins, by April 2025, the country may be in the middle of a historic uprising against his tyranny.

Or not. I just don’t know.

I am, however, very unnerved by what we have to look forward to in the next year.

Abortion Is The Prohibition Of The 21st Century

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m not the first to notice that our post-Roe world is a lot like the lead up to the passage of Prohibition about a century ago. The dynamics of the two movements are very similar. In both instances, there is a whole lot of “catching the car” going on.

Now, there is one quirk to this situation. We have to figure out what we’re going to do about Trump and the push towards a MAGA-themed white Christian ethnostate. If we simply become an autocracy, then the issue of abortion will be settled for the duration — it will be illegal as will contraception.

But there is a chance that the country will implode / explode into civil war and or revolution and, as such, it won’t be until we have a winner in that epic struggle that we have some sense of what the state of reproductive rights will be. I only think there’s a *chance* of this far darker scenario because of how big and diverse the country is as well as how stupid and lazy Trump is in general.

Yet the fact remains that we’re going to go through a lot of pain and suffering no matter what over the next decade or so figuring out what is politically acceptable to the most people in the United States when it comes to the issue of abortion. A lot of women are going to suffer — and maybe die — as part of the process, but in the end, we’ll probably be just about where we were when Roe was the law of the land.