Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

Insurrection 2.0?

by Shet Garner
@shetgarner

I almost went to the January 6th Insurrection to cover it as something of a Citizen Journalist. But it was too cold and too far away. What’s more, even if I had gone, it’s highly unlikely I would have stayed long enough to actually “cover” it.

Flash forward and here we are, with the risk of another “incident” taking place, this time at the Texas border. It’s easy to overestimate what might happen this weekend because we did all get burned on January 6th.

What makes me nervous is MAGA state governments are primed and ready for some sort of Insurrection 2.0 in Texas. The MAGA insurrectionist propaganda that has been flowing for years now cues up a situation where all the conditions exist for political violence to happen.

And, what’s more, if there was some sort of shoot out, there would be a huge amount of pressure on both sides to prove a point. I have a growing sense that we’re more likely to see — at least at first — some sort of major insurrection than Texas leaving the Union over what’s going on.

That may happen if Something Big happens at the border, but not at first. But if a few people died because of a shoot out between the Feds and Texas then the USA would ring like a bell. The political consequences would be a quantum leap beyond January 6th.

If there was a major Insurrection or even Secessionist Crisis, it would do a great deal to help re-elect Joe Biden. And there is, of course, the whole issue of how many craven MAGA pols would actually leave their positions of power in Washington to help found a Trumplandia government.

Also, what would the new Red Government be called? Trumplandia? That’s what it SHOULD be called, but, lulz, what do I know.

Everything Is So Dumb

by Shelt Garner
@shetgarner

Allegedly, tomorrow, Friday, January 26 is D-Day when it comes to Biden forcing Texas to put its money where its money is. And, what’s more, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem is going to be there in person?

This is a Not Great, Bob, situation.

What if there’s a fucking shootout between the Texas National Guard and the Feds while Gov. Noem is chilling out, flirting with cute National Guard members who look like Corey Lewandowski.

Everything is so fucking dumb!

Hopefully, though, this is all going to be a lulz. Hopefully, I’m getting all worked up for no reason and it won’t be a huge clusterfuck.

I Haven’t Felt This Uneasy Since The Very Beginning Of The COVID19 Pandemic

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can remember the dread I felt in really early 2020 about how bad things might get with COVID19. I really, really overestimated how bad things would get, but I was spot-on that everything was about to change for a few months.

And, now, we have a potential insurrection 2.0 / civil war on our hands.

For the time being, I think this situation is just going to simmer. The late night talk show hosts haven’t weighed in, so that’s a good sign that my fears about an escalation happening because of a combination of political pressure, misjudgment and momentum haven’t been realized yet.

I think we’re probably more likely to just have a lot of smoke but no fire. I would be stunned if my absolute worst fear — a secession crisis — happened before Election Day. I have political faith in Biden. I think he’s wise enough to hold off on escalation for the time being — until the political pressure just gets too strong and he has to do something, anything to prove he’s listening.

It definitely will be interesting to see what happens next, though, I have to say. We live in strange, surreal times.

Mulling All My Dystopian Hellscape Predictions

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If This Is It and there’s going to be a force-on-force conflict between Texas and Federal forces, I pretty much gave MAGA cocksuckers too much credit when I was gaming out civil war scenarios the last few years.

Rather than it being Blues that left the Union — or started a revolution — it would be the far more obvious situation of MAGA pretty much doing exactly what the South did in first civil war.

One thing I don’t think we’ve not given enough thought to is the idea that maybe there will be some sort of half-assed civil war, that would be more of an insurrection than an actual civil war. In this scenario, states like Texas don’t officially leave the Union.

They just engaged in armed combat against the Federal government. Maybe, eventually, there might be some sort of secession crisis, but in the near future, it would be more fisticuffs than ballroom brawl.

But the issue remains — this whole situation could get a little crazy really quick. What’s interesting to me is what is actually happening is more along the lines of what NeverTrumper David French wrote in his book about potential civil war scenarios, rather than anything I wrote.

Though, I do think a few of my thoughts on how a civil war (or second insurrection) might break out were pretty prescient, if not spot on.

The Birth of Trumplandia?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, here I was, thinking the DPRK might re-elect Biden by starting a war with the ROK. Now, I’m really beginning to worry that a combination of momentum and miscalculation might re-elect Biden because he’ll have a Secession Crisis on his hands sooner rather than later.


But I can’t predict the future. It’s possible that, lulz, this will just been as a sign that Something Bad is going to happen after Election Day, not the Main Event. I don’t know, I just don’t know.

All the conditions, however, are there for us all to wake up one day and there be a huge battle on the border between Texas Alliance forces and the Federal government, which, in turn would cause Red States to at least attempt to leave the Union.

And there would be malignant ding-dong Trump in the middle of it all, hoping to be the president of Trumplandia.

Trump Weighs In On The Proxy Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Absolutely no one listens to me, but I do find this latest post by Trump on Truth Social….alarming.

What makes this so alarming is Trump has done something he rarely does — go transactional. He is telling people what he wants. He’s pouring gasoline on what could be a very volatile situation by telling MAGA govenors what he wants them to do.

And the pressure on the other side will continue to grow for Biden to Federalize the Texas National Guard — and any other guard that stands in his way. Which, in turn, might cause every mouth breathing MAGA fucktard with an AR-15 to rush to the scene.

That, in turn, will cause something akin to Insurrection 2.0, if not a Second American Civil War.

We’re Failing A Historic Test

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Above is a map that is something of a proxy for what a Second American Civil War would look like. But such a map leaves a lot of questions unanswered. Among them being — if Deep South states decide to leave the Union because of the inclinations of their MAGA Republican Parties — what happens when African Americans object?

That is a “Not great, Bob,” type situation.

One way to re-elect Biden would have him have to go through a Secession Crisis. But I don’t *think* it will come to that, at least not until after Election Day — or way or another.


I think this is one of those situations where violence might happen — something akin to Insurrection 2.0 — because of a combination of momentum and musculations on both sides.

If there was some sort of stand off that came to blows between the two sides and Biden felt a lot of pressure to Federalize the Texas National Guard, then, well, we could very well be going to the show. Things could escalate at an alarming rate and, before you know it, there would be a mad rush between Texas and South Carolina to see who could call up a Secessionist convention first.

The Shoe That Hasn’t Dropped

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As far as I can tell, the late night talk show hosts haven’t commented on what’s going on between the Feds and Texas. That’s a good-to-great thing because when they do, that is going politically escalate things.

At the moment, all the talk of a “civil war” is just that — talk.

But once there is serious political pressure on Biden to do something to thump the nose of Texas….then things could escalate pretty quickly into a very dark future. I, for one, would prefer not to have a civil war anytime soon.

And I don’t think I have anything to worry about.

But keep a look out for Colbert or Meyers to address the situation between Texas and the Feds. Maybe they will never get around to it, which would be good.

What The Fuck Is Wrong With The Anglophone World?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It feels like the entire Anglophone world is in the shitter these days. Of the major English speaking nations, three out of the five are in some sort of long-term political crisis.

I suppose you could blather on about the “Fourth Turning” happening, but that’s just astrology for dudes who like World War 2.

It’s all something of a mystery. It’s entirely possible to imagine the US having a Civil War, Great Britain collapsing and Canada pretty much becoming a failed state all within a few months of each other.

But, for the moment, it seems as though it’s the USA we have to worry about. If things got really bad here, then both Canada and Great Britain would not be far behind.

And that doesn’t even begin to address how if the USA goes tits up about 1 billion people would die because something akin to WW3 would break out. The nukes would be whizzing around like crazy.

It’s All Fun & Games Until Someone Starts A Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve been talking and writing about various civil war / revolution scenarios for years and years now. David French wrote a great book on the subject recently, too. It lays out some pretty good scenarios as to how a civil war in the US might actually break out.

But the thing you have to remember is — at the moment, at least, all that is going on is a lot of political grandstanding. That’s it. No one is doing anything ‘in defiance” of anyone or anything.

Texas thinks it can put up barbwire on the Mexico border, the US disagrees and that’s it.

And, yet, as a lot of long-term macro trends come to a head in late 2024, early 2025, something like this which should be a lulz has the potential to escalate rather quickly at an alarming rate.

But, at the moment, things are just at a low simmer. And there’s every reason to believe that that will continue to be the case until at least the 2024 presidential silly season officially begins.

If nothing else, I will note, one way to re-elect Biden is for him to have to lead the US through a secession crisis.