None Dare Call It Sedition

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

You know, in a functioning democracy, the proof that the January 6th Committee has that a sitting member of the House helped insurrectionists to case the House grounds would….cause someone to get expelled?

But, here we are.

I’m still blocked by Mueller, She Wrote for being “terribly negative” and I can’t get VOX to write a how-to guide to surviving the coming choice of autocracy or civil war. The bolts are quickly popping off our nation and the bad guys are winning. (Sorry Chris Hayes.)

I don’t have any ready answers for you. The main problem is seditious House Republicans know they can lie and lie and lie and their districts are so fucking gerrymandered that the truth is totally in a different silo than the people who vote for them. How do you fix THAT problem.

The answer is, you don’t. You accept that there will be absolutely no accountability or consequences for sedition and we’re careening towards autocracy or civil war around the 2024 – 2025 timeframe.

We’re fucked.

Democracy Dies With Our Eyes Wide Shut

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s reports like the above that make me hate the fact that my “terribly negative” (according to Twitter liberal darling Mueller, She Wrote) aren’t all that fantastical, after all.

It definitely seems as though we’re now going through the montage that is the death spiral of our democracy before we have the existential choice of autocracy or civil war around 2024 – 2025. In other words, not only is Mueller, She Wrote a misguided fool for blocking me for being “terribly negative,” we really are fucked as a nation one way or another a lot sooner than we might think.

All the conditions are set now for something very dramatic to happen between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025. The only question at this point is if it’s going to be civil war or autocracy. And, what’s more, it could happen sooner if Trump becomes Speaker in 2023 and starts to rant on Truth Social that Red States should leave the Union to put pressure on the Senate to convict both Biden and Harris.

All of my dire predictions about the future are slowly coming true. The 2020 election may, in fact, be the last free and fair election in America’s history, barring a civil war or some sort of other “national divorce.”

Instead of blocking me, Mueller, She Wrote should be telling me what the fuck I’m going to do when the autocracy comes and I get arrested for saying President DeSantis can suck my dick. But, no, I’m getting punished for pointing out the obvious — no amount of earnest Twitter threads will save us.

We’re going to have to save ourselves.

We can’t even rely upon Twitter liberals to help us out. We common folk — who can’t afford a Blue Apron subscription — are just shit out of luck.

Holy Shit, Did Ted Cruz Fuck Bobo?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, that’s curious. I have no idea about what it means, but it is very curious Ted Cruz’s connection to professional crazy person Lauren Boebert.

There’s smoke here, but I doubt we’ll ever know if there’s any fire. But it’s curious. Very curious.

I’ve gotten burned way too many times in the past making assumptions from way too little information. It’s just as possible that this is just the usual corruption, graft and grift of MAGA.

Holy Shit Are Things Going To Get Lit Soon

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The first ping as to which way things will go will be when Roe is overturned at some point very soon. If people are just too tuned out when the Dobbs decision is handed down to care, then it’s very possible we’re going to just going to turn into a MAGA themed autocracy.

But if people freak out and there is violence because of Dobbs then, holy shit is there a good chance that Dobbs will be a modern day Dred Scott and, as such, a precursor to an extremely violent “national divorce.”

As of this writing — before Dobbs comes out — I just don’t think there’s going to be any violence. (I hope.) While American definitely feels likes like its in the scary montage before a civil war, Americans are in general pretty copacetic. I just don’t see Americans getting riled up enough to finally start murdering each other for political reasons.

The fucking fascist MAGA cocksuckers are just too passionate, too organized and have too much name brand leadership for Blues to attempt any sort of secession. (Make not doubt about it, if there’s a civil war, it will be because Blues, on a state level, try to leave the Union — Reds are ascendant and have no reason to rock the boat. But they are very stupid, so anything is possible.)

But even if there is not political violence because of Dobbs, from the moment it comes out the clock will be ticking. Republicans are now old school fascists who hate democracy — don’t even believe in it — and, as such, once they have power again that’s it.

Unless there is a civil war, we’re never going to have another free and fair election. We’ll be just like Russian once Putin became president. I’m not saying it’s going to happen overnight and, in the end, it’s probably going to be a “very American autocracy” but long term the drift will be towards a Russian-style autocracy. What’s worst, it’s not like MAGA thought leaders are hiding that this is their goal.

That’s why, like, there should be some low-key panic going on within the elites that at the moment I’m not seeing. We know what’s coming and…lulz? Nothing is being done to save our democratic republic? No drive to have some sort of unity ticket that might at least punt our problems down the road a little bit longer?

It’s all very curious.

Enjoy your autocracy, I guess.

Panic! On The Democracy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I totally agree with this by Jamelle Bouie of The New York Times.



The state of our democracy is very dire at the moment and the lack of willingness to acknowledge that by the American Establishment is concerning.

Maybe if there was some panic now, we would be willing to seriously consider a unity ticket in 2024 of, say, Cheney / AOC. But, as it stands, we’re slouching towards autocracy.

When the crisis strikes in 2024 – 2025, we’re all going to be sucker punched and that will be that. But the entire system is designed to keep people complacent and to avoid panic.

As such, I think it’s a foregone conclusion that the fascists are going to win and that will be that. We’re going to slip into autocracy and 20 years from now President-for-Life DeSantis will be thinking about invading Canada for this or that reason.

Things really are that dire in the United States right now, especially given how a huge swath of MAGA doesn’t even believe in democracy in the USA anymore to begin with.

Ugh.

‘Lenin’s Sealed Train’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I learned a lot about myself in Seoul. I know what I’m good — and bad — at. I’m a good organizer and good at articulating ideals. I have a very broadcast type personality. But I have a huge weakness — I need help persuading anyone. In short, I have no friends and no one likes me.

Annie Shapiro and me way back when in Seoul.

But I know that under the right circumstances, I have the skillset to do Something Great. At the moment, that Something Great is writing developing and writing six novels between now and whenever I shuffle off this mortal coil. Yet there is also the possibility that should the US go tits up as part of a Second American Civil War that the finger of God will point at me.

I’m being extremely speculative — and egotistical — but given the chance, I think there’s a fairly decent chance that I might rise to the occasion and do something Historic with my life. I usually excel in chaos, as my time in Seoul as expat attests.

I think way too much about this, in fact.

I wonder if it’s still possible for me, being the big old loser that I am, to be a Child of the Revolution. Or, put another way, if I’m ever going to live up to my expectations for myself, something pretty astonishing would have to happen one way or another. And a Second American Civil War would definitely fit the bill on that front.

I always though of myself as more of a Trotsky.

As I’ve said, if there is some sort of “national divorce” I’m heading north. It could be a lot of fun living in revolutionary New York City that might spring up as part of a Second American Civil War.

Then I think about how no one likes me and I have no friends. The only reason why I got to have such an interesting experience in Seoul way back when was I had a partner, Annie Shapiro, who was able to get people to listen to me.

Anyway, I guess we’ll know soon enough, huh. It could be as soon as January 2023 if we’re going to have a civil war or not. It could happen that soon, of course, if Trump becomes speaker and personally demands that Red States leave the Union in an effort to put pressure on the Senate to convict both Biden and Harris.

These Are ‘The Before Times’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Gather ye rosebuds while you may — things are going to get bumpy pretty quick, maybe even as early as Wednesday. As you may know, Wednesday is the next day when SCOTUS hands out decisions. And it could be that Wednesday will be the day when we finally see Roe overturned.

Now, I’m growing more and more confident that we’re not going to have a civil war. Trump seems — seems? — to be receding in power and, as such, fucking fascist Ron DeSantis (who my conservative relatives love, love, love, love) could very well be America’s Putin very peacefully.

He becomes POTUS in 2025 and that, as they say, will be that.

But either way — civil war or autocracy — this is it. These are the before times. American life is going to change in a pretty dramatic fashion one way or another a lot sooner than you might think.

There could very well be real political violence this summer when it begins to sink in to people that Roe has been overturned. And, yet, I have my doubts. It’s not until wealthy white liberal women in Blue States can’t have abortions that shit will hit the fan. Lulz.

But stranger things have happened, I suppose. It will be interesting to see if the overturn of Roe really is a modern day Dred Scott decision or if we just continue to slouch towards autocracy.

America is on edge, has been for some time and it’s like we all feel that Something Big is going to happen pretty soon. None of us know what that Something Big is going to be.

This is the twilight of one age and the beginning of a new one. We may be about to enter a Second American Civil War with all the destruction that comes with it or we might be simply going to turn into a Russian-style autocracy. But one thing is for sure: a lot of macro trends are coming to a head right about now. It will be interesting to see how things break.

It makes you think if The Fourth Turning was on to something. (I think the writers were full of shit, but it definitely is spooky how well they predicted what’s going on right now.)

Like I keep saying — get ready. Prepare. Pick a side. Figure out what you believe in. That’s all I got.

I Told You So (I Hate Being Right)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I may be just a lowly drunk Internet crank that can’t even get literary types to give me the time of day even if I pay them, but I have a pretty good bead on politics in America.

At least, sometimes.

I know a lot of the time, ok, most of the time, I’m totally wrong. But this one time I was right — I have long suggested that Twitter liberals / progressives are so desperate for some sort of leadership that they would embrace people like Liz Cheney for POTUS.

And, lo and behold, since the beginning of the January 6th Committee hearings, this very thing has happened. A number of pieces have been done suggesting Cheney should run as either a Democrat or as part of some sort of “Unity Ticket” of Biden / Cheney.

U.S. Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) delivers an opening statement during the opening hearing of the U.S. House (Select) Committee investigating the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, on July 27, 2021 at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC. During its first hearing the committee, currently made up of seven Democrats and two Republicans, will hear testimony from law enforcement officers about their experiences while defending the Capitol from the pro-Trump mob on January 6. (Photo by Jim Bourg-Pool/Getty Images)

I probably should give you links, but I’m too lazy.

But this raises an interesting question, if liberals are so ready to embrace Liz Cheney for high office just because she hates, hates, hates Donald Trump and MAGA, wouldn’t the same principle apply to the big kahuna of Mike Pence? Just imagine if Mike Pence went to the January 6th Committee, totally turned on Trump and MAGA to the fullest extent possible.

He would instantly become a liberal darling — despite everything else — and he could very well bankshot himself into being the Democratic nominee in 2024. That sounds totally fucking bonkers, but we’re in very, very dire times for our democracy. So dire that a Unity Ticket of Pence / AOC makes a huge amount of fucking sense to me.

Of course, there would have to be some sort of power sharing agreement for that to work, which would make the US government very schizophrenic, but at least we would be able to punt a severe political crisis down the road a few more presidential election cycles.

There are two obvious problems with this above and beyond the obvious . One is, the administration of elections could be so corrupt in 2024 that not even a Hail Mary Unity Ticket could work. The other is, I’m not so sure that we actually have the gumption to do something so drastic to save our democracy.

Americans talk about democracy in the abstract very well, but the country is too big and too divided for a Unity Ticket to work. If we were Canada, maybe. But we have 335 million people to get on the same page, not 35 million.

Anyway. We’re fucked. Nothing and on one is going to save us. Get ready. The next few years will be lit.

#NeverTrumpers, Blue States War Aims & The Rise of ‘Radical Moderates’ In The Context Of A Potential Second American Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Blue States have a woeful lack of leadership at the moment. While Red States have a plethora, a panoply of very name brand leaders (most of whom want to be our first American autocrat) the center-Left is very, very weak willed and divided.

That is why I, in general, don’t believe we’re going to have any sort of Second American Civil War starting in late 2024 – early 2025. The leadership just isn’t there for Blue States. Blues just aren’t bloodthirsty enough. Nor passionate or organized enough to properly stand up to Reds.

But, as I have mentioned before, there is one group that could provide Blues with the wartime leadership necessary to pull off a successful “national divorce” — the #NeverTrumpers. It would be surreal, but if push came to shove and Blue States attempted to bounce from the looming Very American Autocracy under President Trump or DeSantis (or whomever) the one group of people who could rise to the occasion to give them the leadership they need would be people like Liz Cheney.

U.S. Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) delivers an opening statement during the opening hearing of the U.S. House (Select) Committee investigating the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, on July 27, 2021 at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC. During its first hearing the committee, currently made up of seven Democrats and two Republicans, will hear testimony from law enforcement officers about their experiences while defending the Capitol from the pro-Trump mob on January 6. (Photo by Jim Bourg-Pool/Getty Images)

I think of #NeverTrumpers as “Radical Moderates.” Even though, relative to me, they aren’t very moderate, they do believe that the US is a democracy and that that democracy is worth defending. I’ve been so wrapped up in thinking about the possibility of a Second American Civil War that I totally forgot to think about what Blue war aims might be.

And, sad to say, those war aims wouldn’t be to keep the Union together, to found a Third Republic, but to destroy it. Blue States would want the very national divorce that Republicans keep beating their meet to all the time. And, the great irony will be — it will be Republicans who try to stop the very national divorce they keep talking about they believe is necessary.

It will be interesting to see if the #NeverTrump Radical Moderates will be willing to abide by the Blue State war aims of tearing the Union asunder. Given how dire things would have to be for such a national divorce to happen….I don’t know…maybe?

Anyway, the point is — keep an eye on #NeverTrumpers. They could very well play a far bigger historical role than one might think at the moment.

When The Very American Autocracy Finally Comes, Fox News Will Freak Out Not About Immigrant Caravans, But A Liberal Brain Drain

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

At the moment at least, it seems as though we are careening towards some sort of MAGA presidency in 2025 and, as such, autocracy. The Republican Party is very clear these days about how much it hates democracy, doesn’t believe in it and goes so far to point out with great vigor that we aren’t even a democracy, but, rather a “constitutional republic.”

So, I predict that as many as 1 million or more highly trained, highly educated wealthy liberals will leave the United States once it becomes clear we’ve peacefully slipped into autocracy.

What’s more, the autocrat — whomever that may endup being — will notice this and at his behest Fox News will go completely batshit over the brain drain the United States will be experiencing. Their go-to, hysterical coverage of “immigrant caravans” will be replaced by the dire implications of “liberal brain drain.”

This will be very ironic, of course, because Fox News has long been on the “If you don’t like it, leave it” side of the political fence when it comes to such things. When wealthy liberals begin to do just that, Fox News will piviot to bitch and moaning about it without blinking an eye.

In fact, because form follows function, I could see the autocrat making it far, far more difficult for people to flee the country. But before that happens, so many wealthy liberal Americans will decamp to Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand and that will be The Issue of the Day at some point after 2025.

This has massive implications for global culture that I can’t fully game out at the moment. But it’s going to happen — or something similar will happen when all the coward Twitter liberals flee the country for a different reason, which would be the country has imploded into civil war.

It will be really interesting to see if Twitter liberals surprise me and rise to the occasion when the time comes. But, really, who am I kidding? They are already getting second passports at an alarming rate. And, given how big the US, it could be I’m low balling how many people will flee the country. All I know is, it’s going to happen and there are some pretty big cultural implications that will stim from it.

Anyway, the point is — these are The Before Times. Act accordingly.