Tag: Fuck You MAGA

What Will Happen When The United States Is No Longer A Democracy?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

These days, you hear a lot about how much our democracy is in peril. Add to this the fact that about 38% of the electorate doesn’t believe we’re a democracy in the first place and, well, lulz. As we approach the first step in our decent into the existential choice of autocracy or civil war, here is what we can expect when we finally are, in fact, no longer a democracy.

The Great Liberal Brain Drain
When it becomes clear that we’re no longer a democracy, probably at some point in late 2024 to early 2025, many, many, many wealthy liberals are simply going to leave the country. In fact, it could become so bad that the very people who crow about, “If you don’t like it, then leave” will be the very people who suddenly freak the fuck out when this very thing happens. We’re going to go from Fox screaming hysterically about scary brown people in caravans headed towards the border to them complaining constantly about how liberals are leaving the country. At first, of course, they will be gloat and be full of glee at this prospect….until it gets to the point that even they realize the economic impact of this happening and all they will do is complain about how wealthy liberals are fleeing to the south of France (or wherever). But make no mistake about it — it’s going to happen. The moment it’s clear we’re an autocracy, wealthy liberals will flee the United States en masse.

The Passage Of The Republican Agenda
At some point after 2025 when Republicans know the coast is clear, Republicans are going to abolish the Senate filibuster and cram threw their entire agenda that they’ve been hoping to pass the last few decades. ACA will be gone. Abortion will be banned in all the states. Social Society, Medicaid and Medicare will be gutted, “reformed” and privatized. Taxes for plutocrats will be lowered, while the poor will have to start to “pay their fair share.” There may be a lot of protesting, but, just like with Russia, ultimately…lulz, nothing matters.

Plutocrats Will End The Liberal Media
If what happened to Russia is any indication, at some point after 2025, we will begin to see MAGA-friendly plutocrats begin to buy and otherwise make huge investments in Disney, NBCUniversal, Paramount, etc to the point that in a subtle way the idea of there being a “liberal media” will begin to seem quite quaint. And what our new fascist overlords can’t get that way, they will get via brute force — they will threaten harsh regulations and broadcast companies licensing. I would suggest you keep an eye on things like The New York Times and PBS as well. If somehow, magically, The New York Times is sold to, say, Elon Musk and you look at PBS Newshour and is identical to Hannity then, well, America is an autocracy.

A Constitutional Convention
Now, this is where a lot of people who still believe in the system, believe that all we have to do is wait for the Justice Department to indict about two dozen people and we’re all going to be saved — I’m looking at you Mueller, She Wrote — will think I’m being “terribly negative.” But we’re already just a few states away from a Constitutional Convention being called and one of the long-term goals of the MAGA New Right is for this to happen to “pass a balanced budget amendment.” But given how such a convention would be populated — by people selected by state legislatures — it’s very, very, very easy to imagine that the moment it convenes, it will go rouge and decide to dramatically change the Constitution. The MAGA New Right agenda will be codified in the Constitution and things like birthright citizenship, a weak executive and God only knows what else will be gone. That will be the central political issue of the day at some point after we’re finally no longer a democracy. And all the bullshit gaslighting that Republicans have been using for decades will be used to get it all passed. And the center-Left is just too weak, so, lulz, we’re fucked.

The Weaponization of The ICE Infrastructure
As all of this is going on, the already existent ICE infrastructure will be weaponized so loudmouth crank drunks like me will find themselves in a lot of hot water. And, given that I, by nature, just can’t shut up, I fully expect that in the end I’m probably going to die in an ICE camp. Or something. Something bleak and dark.

Minority Report
There is another option. And that option is our autocracy will be a Very American Autocracy in that, relative to, say, Russia, it will be “light touch” — but still exist. Or it might be that our decent into a Russian-style autocracy will be so gradual after some initial gloating on the part of the MAGA New Right that we won’t really notice any changes at first. And this will happen because the center-Left in the United States is soooooo fucking weak and so wrapped up in what pronouns to use that the autocrat will simply go about his business and not really care about the “soft power” that the liberal elites might have. And, besides, the liberal elites won’t even live in the country anymore, so…lulz?

Lincoln Would Be A Blue Secessionist

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love me a good counter-factual. In fact, I spend way, way, way too much time toying with different “what-if” scenarios. It’s like, my thing. So, the case could be made that had the Civil War happened a little later that Lincoln might have lead the North leaving the Union instead of leading the fight to save it.

Just within the last few days, it’s occurred me what one might expect if the “national divorce” that Reds keep babbling about actually happend around 2024 – 2025. For the longest time, I thought both sides would be fighting over, essentially, the USA “brand.” But now I realize that the war aims of the Blues would be to simply leave the Union.

It would be Reds who play the part of the North in this scenario, trying to “save” the Union — even though in reality, they would want to oppress Blues by putting a knee on their throat for eternity.

This really makes me very unhappy because now I realize that should things get so bad that we’re having a civil war, then rather than supporting the Union in 2024 – 2025, I’ll be supporting the secessionists. Or, put another way, if I find myself a political refugee somewhere in a Blue state once a Second Civil War starts all the propaganda I will be consuming will be about how great and wonderful that “national divorce” that Reds current want would be.

Meanwhile, Reds will be freaking out and bombing the hell out of Blues to try to keep them in the Union.

History is, if nothing else, ironic.

Of course, there is something I really don’t talk that much about — the possibility that the joke will be on all of us –instead of any sort of national divorce, the U.S. Military will finally, FINALLY step in as the country is descending into civil war and we’ll end up with endup with Acting President Mattis.

But the fact remains — Reds would have to be EXTREMELY DUMB to start a civil war before the general late 2024 – early 2025 timeframe. They’re ascendant and, a such, they have no reason to want a civil war. They can get everything they want just by being patient.

And, yet, sadly — they ARE very dumb.

A Very American Autocracy: Trump’s Successor Will Be America’s First Autocrat

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump is — and remains — too stupid and lazy to be an autocrat. The great irony is, of course, that both myself and the people who voted for him in 2016 thought he was an autocrat. But, lulz, no. He’s not a Great Man, he’s just an avatar who plays himself and is too lazy to do the hard work of destroying American democracy once and for all.

This brings us to Trump’s looming second term.

Now, obviously, that’s both not happen yet and a few years away. So a lot could change between now and 2025. But even though Trump looks like shit most of the time these days, Joe Biden has proven that someone in their late 70s and early 80s can be president.

So, let’s suppose Trump does exactly what we believe he is going to do and runs again in 2024 and, through hook or through crook, wins again. What would be the significance of that event?

There is a lot to unpack here.

First, of course, is the cold hard fact that Trump’s second term will be based on revenge and the final destruction of American democracy. But, again, all of that will happen in the context of Trump being very stupid and very lazy. The real issue we have to worry about is who will be his successor.

His successor will be America’s Putin.

At the moment, I’m leaning towards him picking as crazy as possible a successor. Someone like Gen. Mike Flynn. Someone who is totally fucking bonkers and yet is young enough and smart enough to complete the process of transitioning the United States into autocracy. There’s a small chance that Trump might, out of desperation, pick Ron DeSantis as his veep, but if he goes with a “normal” person, it’s probably going to pick someone even more dangerous like Josh Hawley.

But the point is — barring the other option of 2024 – 2025, which is civil war — the United States will no longer be a democracy soon after Trump cheats his way into a second term. (A second term he would probably win without even cheating.)

And even Trump is smart enough to realize that once he’s back in power, he can get everything he wants through a Constitutional Convention. I fully expect Trump — or his smarter, more organized successor –to demand a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” at some point after 2025.

And, yet, I’m still blocked by Mueller, She Wrote for being “terribly negative” even though it’s pretty obvious that my “terribly negative” views are using self-evident information. Oh well. Fight the power, I guess.

Pray, Mike Pence

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I read the huge Truman biography some time ago, and there’s passage where he recounts how at some point around the Korea War how Truman met Gen. MacArthur in the middle of the Pacific. Apparently, after Truman fired the general for wanting to nuke China, he mused that had they died around the time of that meeting each of their legacies would have been far, far different.

Another relevant anecdote is the very well known one about how Steve Jobs seduced John Sculley to leave Pepsi to join Apple. He said something along the lines of, “Do you want to continue to sell sugar water the rest of your life or do you want to change the world?”

So, with that in mind, let me ask Mike Pence a question, “Do you want to be joke or do you want to be a Great Man?” You can change your legacy from the guy with the fly on your head who almost got hanged by your own supporters to the Great American who saved 250 years of American democracy not once, but twice.

Pence is very conspicuous about being a man of God. I was raised in the church and I’m well aware of how important prayer is to people like him. As such, I would suggest to Pence that he take a long, long walk with the Good Lort to get some advice as to his next move.

Here’s where things stand with Pence at the moment. After doing the barest minimum necessary to keep American democracy alive, Pence is well on his way to being fading into political oblivion. Pence, as it stands, will be a joke to the center-Left and a traitor to the MAGA New Right.

And this is where the power of prayer comes in.

I totally disagree with 99% of what he believes politically — but I agree with his faith in American democracy. So much so, that it is very, very obvious that if Pence continues to have any hope of being POTUS one day, he has to change the question.

The question is no longer, “How do I win the Republican nomination?” but, rather, “Am I willing to risk switching parties to be part of a 2024 unity ticket?” The cold hard fact is — Mike Pence is never going to be POTUS if he remains a Republican. By saving American democracy, he has destroyed his political career as a Republican. To be a Republican now, by definition, means to be an autocratic fascist.

So, Pence has a very, very stark choice — drift into political oblivion and or have a greater-than-zero-sum chance at having a bust of him placed in the Capitol Rotunda at some point in the not-so-distant future.

All Pence has to do is do a lot of praying and testify on live TV, under oath before the January 6th Committee and explain what he saw from Election Day 2020 to Certification Day 2021. It might help if he told the public, on a personal level, what it felt like to have his own supporters scream “Hang Mike Pence.”

He would instantly become the Democratic front runner for 2024. The public’s perception of him would change instantly. And, what’s more, he would not have to change a single policy belief. All he would have to do is define himself as defender of American Democracy and be willing to run as part of a Unity Ticket with, maybe AOC as his veep.

Throw in some sort of pre-election power sharing agreement and the rest takes care of himself. Both sides of a very, very politically divided America would be EXTREMLY ANGRY at this arrangement, but for the 100,000 or so people across five swing states who decide American elections, such an arrangement would be catnip.

Independent swing voters — who really decide elections at this point — would love the idea that “both sides” were being represented under such an agremeemt.

Now, there are obvious risks.

One is, that this would be simply not be something that the American political system could process and Pence WOULDN’T be seen as the Democratic front runner as part of some sort of Unity Ticket. Biden is old, but he’s not dead. And he remains very popular within Democratic ranks.

But in 2024, America faces the existential choice of a MAGA Republican themed autocracy or a civil war. And, while Liz Cheney could also serve the purpose of Pence on a Unity Ticket, Pence is the big kahuna. He really could do something amazing and instantly change his legacy — simply by telling the truth.

I do not honestly believe any of this is going to happen. I mean, lulz. But it’s just so frustrating that a solution to the existential problem that faces America is right in front of Mike Pence and yet, even with a walk with the good Lort, he won’t do it.

The Case For Mike Pence To Testify Before The January 6th Committee

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If Liz Cheney is any indication, Mike Pence could dramatically change his political fortunes if he dropped a H-Bomb on Washington and agreed to testify before the January 6th Committee at some point before its televised hearings wrapped up.

Just do it, Mike.

As I’ve said before, in one simple act, Mike Pence would go from political has been to the potential Democratic 2024 front runner. It would be a jaw dropping, astonishing event in modern American political history. It could also single handedly save American democracy — or at least give a little bit more breathing room.

But why? Why should he do it?

The chief reason is the Trump anti-democratic infection has gone septic — the very thing that destroyed Pence’s MAGA career is now the only thing that could save his political career. He just has to pull a John Dean and testify live and under oath as to what he saw in the lead up to January 6th.

That one simple act would make the Liberal Elites swoon. He would be a Great Man on historical terms because he could be the one person who could manage to save democracy in 2024 because he would be EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE and yet a Democrat. (He would have to, of course, pick someone like AOC as his veep and agree to some sort of extensive power sharing agreement, but, still.)

Of course, there is a huge amount of risk involved. It could be that what I propose wouldn’t be enough to redeem Pence in the eyes of the very woke Democratic Party base. That’s a very real possibility.

But two things. One, I hate all of Liz Cheney’s political beliefs, but damn if I wouldn’t vote for her for POTUS given the chance. I’m so desperate for principled leadership from someone who believes in democracy that I’m willing to hold my nose if it means defeating MAGA in 2024. The same applies to Mike Pence — if he testified for a few hours (days?) before the January 6th Committee and explained exactly what he knew of the conspiracy, then, yes, I would probably vote for him if he was the head of a Unity Ticket with AOC as veep.

The other issue is the historical significance of Pence doing such a thing. If he marketed himself as a defender of small-d democracy — if that was the cornerstone of why he was running for POTUS In the first place — we’re talking Great Man territory for Pence.

And, I think Pence needs to reflect on the fact that the faction of MAGA that wanted to hang him on January 6th is now the dominate faction. Within MAGA ranks, he’s growing more and more irrelevant. And the only way for him to avoid simply fading into political oblivion is to do a Hail Mary Pass and to go full John Dean on Trump and MAGA.

But no one listens to me. Oh well. I guess we need to go back to thinking about what we’re going to do in 2024 – 2025 when we either have a civil war or turn into an autocracy.

Why The Rep. Loudermilk Situation Is So Dangerous & Epitomizes Our Long-Term Crisis

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, if you want a perfect ecapulation of why we’re totally, completely fucked going forward — to the point that we have only two options 1) civil war 2) autocracy — look no further than what Rep. Barry Loudermilk did in days leading up to January 6th.

So, Rep. Loudermilk obvious helped insurrectionists case the Capitol…and yet he denies it and he’s going to get away with it. This lack of accountability is the cornerstone of modern America. And it’s why, in the end, we’re probably just going to become a MAGA autocracy.

And, sad to say, in about 20 years, America could be politically a Russia clone. What’s more, we’re going to go down that path without even putting up a struggle. Of course, there is the possibility that may have a civil war rather than go down the autocracy route, but that possibility isn’t very high.

The Blues just don’t have the leadership to do such a thing.

A Modest Proposal

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

You know what we need? We need something, a blog or a podcast, that would help give people some central repository for information about our careening towards whatever is going to happen in 2024 – 2025.

As it stands, I kind of obsess about how dire things are in the United States, but all I get for my trouble is being blocked by the Mueller, She Wrote Twitter account for being “terribly negative.”

In fact, if I could magically figure out a way to have friends and stuff *I* would start a podcast or blog that did as I suggest. But, alas, I just don’t have the right personality nor the resources to pull it off.

But I know I would listen to — or read — a media outlet that was laser focused on the “troubles” that the United States currently faces. The closest I can think up at the moment is Deep State Radio and maybe Pod Save America. But neither podcast really is as hyper focused on the rot that the United States political system current suffers from.

Just from looking at Twitter, I can tell there is a huge audience for what I’m suggesting. It would be kind of like Spy Magazine, only for covering the rise of sedition (or autocracy) in the United States.

I guess I have to comfort myself with writing a novel instead, though. I just can’t get anyone to listen to me. I could do a really great job as the editor of such a media outlet but absolutely no one listens to me and I have no money to force them to by paying them.

All I can do is get back to reading about the rise of the Nazis and beginning of the Civil War like I have been trying to do for some time now. It’s sad, however, that no one will help people understand how to prepare for the choice of autocracy or civil war that we face between now and Certification Day 2025.

We’re In A Constitutional Crisis (Again)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Holy shit.

Of all the things to come out of the January 6th Committee’s investigations, the fact that Ginni Thomas was talking to the legal “mastermind” behind Trump’s attempt to end American democracy about the inner workings SCOTUS is bat shit insane.

It is, by definition, a constitutional crisis.

There’s a lot to unpack here. But two different concepts are smacking up against each other and, as such, we’re in a crisis. The natural inclination of the Elites to defer to SCOTUS (and their wives) about everything is smacking up against the HOLY SHIT element of what Ginni Thomas was up to.

I mean, oh my fucking God.

This means there is a direct link between SCOTUS and Eastman’s efforts to prevent the peaceful transfer of power. That is some Watergate-level bullshit.

And, yet, if past is preface, we will all run around in shock for a few days and then this will fade into oblivion like every other Trump scandal. We just don’t have the political will to do anything about Trump or Trumplandia.

In all honesty, we are kind of getting what we deserve. If we don’t have the political will to do some chemo on the MAGA cancer…well…maybe that’s our own fault?

Just be prepared for Twitter liberals to decamp to the south of France in late 2024, early 2025.

We had a good run.

Mike Pence Is Too Delusional To Realize That His Position In The Republican Party Grows Untenable

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Mike Pence finds himself in a unique historical position. He can remain a Trump toady and fade into political oblivion and become a political footnote in the context of the rise of A Very American Autocracy — or he can become MAGA’s John Dean and change history.

It’s up to you, Mike.

This is an example of how the fate of a nation can hinge on the quirks and personal foibles of one — one! — person. The Great River of History is rushing the United States towards either great change (autocracy) or destruction (civil war) and Mike Pence on a personal basis has the means, motive and opportunity to change that flow.

Mike Pence is playing the part of Dr. Manhattan by simply doing nothing even though he could potentially buy American democracy time if he just became a MAGA Republican apostate. Maybe, with extra time we could figure out some way to solve the existential problems that face the nation so we don’t start murdering each other in cold blood for political reasons.

It’s all very, very frustrating. Pence has the means, motive and opportunity to be a Great Man….and he is too much of a toady. Even after his boss said he was cool with him being hanged! If that isn’t an indication that this is The Before Times of American politics, then I don’t know what is.

When people are more devoted to a demonstrably deranged idiot because he’s an avatar for the rage of white American rather than do what is right for American democracy, then, lulz, what the fuck?

The Only Way Mike Pence Becomes President Is As A Democrat (Or As Part Of A Unity Ticket)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the mysteries of the political universe is why Mike Pence won’t bite the bullet and become the John Dean of the MAGA movement. If he wants to be POTUS, it ain’t gunna happen for him as a MAGA Republican.

The. Only. Fucking. Way. Mike. Pence. Becomes. POTUS. Is. A. Hail. Mary. Pass.

Even if Trump somehow, magically, gets knocked out of political consideration, Mike Pence just isn’t up to having a pitched political battle with DeSantis or Hawley, or whomever. But the center-Left is so devoid of leadership, and is so politically easy, that I swear to God if Mike Pence turned on MAGA he would be on Stephen Colbert within a month.

And, what’s more, Pence would not have to change one policy opinion other than showing some principle and turning on MAGA. He would instantly be the Democratic front runner (at least among Twitter liberals) and there would be a huge amount of chatter on Twitter of the need for a “Unity Ticket,” maybe with AOC as veep.

But I think we have our answer — Pence’s poor mind can’t take the cognitive leap necessary to realize his path is being a Democrat (or somewhat) rather than continuing to be a toady for Trump / MAGA.