I really hate violence. I’m a man of peace. I’m a man of ideas. So, I would rather we slip peacefully into autocracy than have a the clusterfuck that would be a Second Civil War. Having said that, given how the MAGA New Right is chomping at the bit to murder people like me under the guise of civil war, the consequences of such a high risk, high reward situation are something we need to think about if only in the abstract.
The thing about the United States right now is there’s no accountability for Trump. He’s above the law, even not being president. He’s a king without a kingdom. And, but for fuck old and deranged he is, he would be the guy who turned the United States into something akin to Nazi Germany. He really is that bad, if so amazingly incompetent that he could never pull it off without a lot of help.
The only way there will ever be any accountability for Trumplandia is a civil war where Blue States are victorious. That’s it. Otherwise, either Trump and his toadies are a linger existential crisis that just won’t go away, or we slip into some form of autocracy.
I really — and I mean — REALLY don’t want a civil war of any sort.
But the macro tends at the moment in the United States definitely seem to indicate that a civil war is one of two existential choices we’re going to have no later than late 2024 – early 2025.
If we had a Second Civil War and Blue States won — and that’s the critical aspect of it all — then there might be some sort of Truth & Reconciliation Commission that would, at last, give us some accountability for Trumplandia.
My hot take on a majority of MAGA New Right voters wanting to secede from the the Union is that it’s solely the result of the quirk in history we’re now living through. If either Trump had been the autocrat people voted for in 2016 or had COVID not hit and Biden not been the nominee, those very same people would be the bedrock of a United America Party.
They would be the people who were thrilled that we’d just had a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention and liberals were, at last, owned.
But neither one of those things happened. Trump could not live up to his reputation as the “You’re Fired” Guy and the stars of politics and history aligned in just the right way so deny Trump the ability to rant his way into a stolen second term.
So here we are.
What should be happening – Trump, or someone like Trump, working swiftly to consolidate autocratic power — isn’t happening. This leaves people who want Trumplandia, the MAGA New Right cocksuckers, upset that they can’t turn the United States into a Russian clone immediately.
Also, I think some of what’s going on is that usual MAGA New Right bullshit where they take some ridiculous political position just to own the libs in the mainstream media. They like seeing talking heads on TV freaking out, so they say things they don’t really mean to get that result.
But I will say that the poll in question leans credence to my view that one, the United States is an autocracy without an autocrat and two, the country is far more politically unstable than you might believe.
All that would have to happen is something unexpected to put undue pressure on our political system and some pretty dramatic, unexpected things. Another thing — I still think it’s going to be Blue States that are pushed into a corner to such an extent that they decide to leave the Union in the late 2024 – early 2025 timeframe.
So, it will be Blue States who ultimately leave the Union, not Red States. I say this because all the macro trends favor Red States and when the time comes for some sort of civil war, I will be shocked if it’s not the Red States who get the USA “brand name.”
And even then, that’s really the absolute worst case scenario.
More likely than not, we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy, without people like me an Norm Ornstein getting all that upset about the change in our basic political system.
Or, put another way, for the time being, everything is still up in the air. It could go either way — autocracy or civil war.
I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen. I’m wrong so often that it’s comical. But, lulz, I have psychological need to make my abstract fears concrete so let’s talk about Glenn Youngkin.
I’m of the opinion that despite sage admonishments by Larry Sabato to the contrary, given that Virginia is a functioning democracy — unlike North Carolina — that it’s inevitable that some MAGA New Right cocksucker is going to become governor.
That’s the kind of bullshit you have to worry about when one of your two major political parties is fascist.
So, it’s reasonable to believe that what would otherwise be pretty mundane — a Republican governor in Virginia in 2025 — could have some pretty huge fucking consequences.
Namely, a Governor Youngkin would be a prime candidate for an actual fucking coup if the country collapsed. I say this Virginia is actually two different states. You have the autocratic Trumplandia rural parts and everything else. It’s easy to imagine Youngkin throwing his lot with a MAGA presidential candidate and doing everything in his power to throw the state to the Red side, even to the point of outright nullification.
This would not sit well with the otherwise placid, moderates of Virginia.
If the shit really hit the fan, Virginia is probably doomed. It’s going to implode and either Youngkin flees to somewhere like, I dunno, Danville, or he’s overthrown altogether.
It might not be very pretty.
But, I can’t predict the future. All my dystopian nightmare scenarios may be, in the end, just that.
I don’t know what to tell you, folks. I still can’t get a handle on what’s going to happen in the 2024- 2025 timeframe. Are we going to slip peacefully into autocracy or we going to go tits up? At the moment, I lean heavily towards our democracy having one last death rattle and we become an autocracy.
I say that because, at the moment, the people who should be preparing for autocracy are still stuck in an extreme online naivety about what’s going on. I’ve started to listen to Steve K. Bannon’s hysterical podcast — featuring Peter Navarro! — and it’s pretty clear he wants to sucker punch us all in the real world where it counts.
He’s not even on fucking Twitter (thank God) and yet growing numbers of people are taking his marching orders. And, I think, that is the reason why we won’t have a civil war. It really would take a come-to-Jesus moment for a lot of very otherwise level headed people for the Blue States to strike back when Bannon’s plot works and it has become impossible for us to administer free and fair elections.
But I will note that we all need to start thinking on an existential basis. This is very much the quiet before the storm, in a sense. I will also note that I’m wrong all the fucking time. I’ve been so wrong — especially about how effective as an autocrat Trump would be — that I think the issue is more one of perception more than anything else.
The thing I compare America to is the Roman Empire. The Romans never had an actual “king” and when the Lombards named a king, that was the end of the Western Empire. So, too, Americans feel that some form of free democracy is their birth right and the idea of the United States being nothing more than an autocratic Russia clone is not something that would sit well with the average American.
So, it’s very possible that — at first, at least — we will fit the technical definition of an autocracy, on a practical level the average person will just shrug and not even notice that anything has changed. It won’t be until President DeSantis (or whomever) has had a few years to consolidate power that we all wake up and the issue of the day is if we should have a Constitutional Convention or not. Or, even more ominous, it won’t even be if we should, but what the one we’ve called has decided to do.
There are so many known unknowns right now about the Fourth Turning that I just can’t wargame things out with any degree of certainty. All I know is the conditions are there for either civil war or autocracy (and maybe a military junta).
Or, to say it another way — the United States is going through an lingering existential crisis with no ready endgame. It could go either way at the moment. I’m leaning towards a peaceful transition to autocracy. That seems a pretty safe bet right now.
But there is plenty of time for the specifics of the political equation to change in some pretty shocking ways. As such, we could very well have an actual hot Second American Civil War that would, in turn, lead to the Third World War and billions dead as the result of several limited nuclear exchanges across the globe.
It’s going to fucking suck.
I hate violence, so I’d much rather we slip into autocracy. I’m survivor, I’ll think of something. But I’m also not going to be cowed by threats of a civil war by the fucking cocksucker MAGA New Right.
Here are some reasons why we could have a civil war, which apparently a lot of people who show up at this blog want. I’ll do another post as to why we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
As of the moment, I believe we’re not going to get the debt ceiling crisis worked out in time and, for the first time, the US is going to default on its debt. Things could change, but the momentum at the moment is definitely towards default.
In other words, we’re fucked.
Pray.
I still doubt there’s going to be a MAGA New Right themed “revolution” anytime soon, but going through a massive global economic crisis of your own making isn’t exactly great for a nation’s stability.
Once you knock out one of the pillars of a stable government — the economy — the entire political system won’t be far behind. I say this, especially since the Republican Party is now a vigilante group that is so wrapped up in negative polarization that it would rather destroy the country than work with Democrats.
I guess what I’m saying is — whatever you would do in preperation of a worst case scenario economic crisis on a personal basis — do that. Now.
This is another in my series of answering the searches about a civil war or revolution that bring people to this site. This one was from — you guessed it — Alabama.
Short answer: probably around January 2025, if it happens.
Long Answer: very good question.
That someone in Alabama would casually ask when the Second Civil War is going to start gives you some insight into how bad things are at the moment. But as of right now, I think if we do have a Second Civil War it will happen at some point after Election Day 2024 and before Certification Day in January 2025.
An actual hot civil war in the United States would be only one end of a spectrum of potential outcomes, with the an autocracy being on the other end. And lot depends on what Donald Trump does. If he runs for president again and is the nominee, he is so fucking idiotic and incompetent that he might, just by continuing to be a political force, push the United States into civil war.
But there is always a small chance that well before 2024 – 2025, some unexpected event might start a hot civil war in the United States well before the two sides (or I) expect it. Remember, for it to be a “civil war” you would need a government and troops. If it’s just a bunch of idiots in a rural part of Oregon and that’s it, well, that’s not even a revolution.
You would need some sort of mass attack on the civil Federal authority on a state level for it to be a real “civil war.” And, as such, my best guess is, at the moment, those conditions will be met when the government is at its weakest — between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025.
I will note that I think we’re in a similar situation as about 1857, only things are begin speed up and feel slower because the pace of modern life is so much faster. But, as they say, people go bankrupt gradually then all at once, so it’s possible that my fears about a civil war will be justified a lot sooner than I currently expect.
But something really out of the blue would have to happen for the country to actually have a civil war anytime soon as of late 2021. We’ll see, I guess.
It’s becoming more and more clear to me that the modern day War Democrats of The Lincoln Project et al will be the leadership of the Blue States if we have a Second American Civil War.
While there are plenty of great center-Left leaders who would rise to the occasion if the shit hit the fan, it’s a tough-as-nails broad like Liz Cheney who will get the fucking job done. I don’t know how it would work, but if we reach a point where the United States is actively attacking itself in a civil war, then principled leadership will rise to the top.
As such, I suspect that ultimately, it won’t be AOC who leads Blue States, but someone like Cheney. There will be endless howls at first from Leftists at such a “betrayal” but when Cheney proves she’s an American Iron Lady they will shut up. I love you, AOC, babe, but you’re still too young, too unfocused and too unserious to get us through a fucking civil war.
U.S. Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) delivers an opening statement during the opening hearing of the U.S. House (Select) Committee investigating the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, on July 27, 2021 at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC. During its first hearing the committee, currently made up of seven Democrats and two Republicans, will hear testimony from law enforcement officers about their experiences while defending the Capitol from the pro-Trump mob on January 6. (Photo by Jim Bourg-Pool/Getty Images)
Cheney, meanwhile, is locked and loaded to destroy the MAGA New Right with everything she’s got.
And it won’t just be Cheney. If things grow existential, most of the Blue State leadership will probably eventually be NeverTrumpers. It will be extremely ironic and probably cause some surreal post-war events as everything snaps back into place, but in the moment of crisis, it will get the job done.
But I’m still being very speculative. It could be that we don’t have a civil war and we simply slip peacefully into autocracy. People like Cheney are either arrested, pushed out a window or exiled and that will be that.
It’s difficult to make a one-to-one comparison between the modern United States and early 30s Germany for one crucial reason: Germany was a parliamentary system, while the United States has an presidential system based on balance of powers and an Electoral College.
A more honest depiction of the American political system on the ground would show the American Fascist Party being the biggest party, only countered — at the moment — by a large center-Left coalition. If we had a parliamentary system like German, we would all be freaking the fuck out a lot more because it would be a lot more obvious how dire our situation is.
The Democratic Party is really a center-Left coalition of anti-fascist parties, socialists, moderates, Labor, etc. That’s why it’s so difficult to get the party to do anything — it’s not even really a party, but a jumble of different smaller parties fused together because of how we election our presidents.
Or, put another way — the Electoral College, on a systemic level, is luling us into a false sense of security. It’s difficult for us to comprehend that one of the two major political parties in the United States no longer believes in democracy and are hell bent on establishing an autocratic White Christian ethno state. They will stop at nothing to do this, to the point that they would rather wreck the world economy than have any form of bipartisanship.
Politics is now dead in the United States. In a post-political environment, you’re pretty much just waiting for some sort of crisis to spark some sort of violent historical event be it revolution or civil war.
Also, note that if we were a parliamentary system it would be a lot more clear how dire things are because it would be growing more and more difficult for us to form a government. What the fascists GQP New Right Republicans are doing with the debt ceiling would have an immediate effect as opposed to causing a crisis that would only be felt at the polls in about a year.
The point is — the United States is far, far more unstable than you might think. At the moment, the only thing holding the country together is, well, the political system that the Electoral College mandates. That’s why the next crisis will be severe and it will happen either in 2022 or 2024.
It definitely feels as though we’ve reached the end of the beginning when it comes to the Final Countdown. What’s it going to be, American history — autocracy or civil war? At the moment, there are too many known unknowns for me to be able to wargame that out.
So, for the moment, I’m at a loss to tell you what to think of Liz Cheney pretty obviously running for POTUS — as a Republican!
As it stands, people are beginning to wake up to the cold hard fact that we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked. And the only unknown is if we get fucked via fascism or fucked via civil war. That’s it. Those are only two options at this point. (I guess, you could say that maybe, just maybe we might get a military junta, but I doubt it.)
Or, put another way, American politics is now very similar to that of around 1857. We all kinda of know that either Slave Power (MAGA) wins a final victory or we hash it out via a civil war that would be extremely high risk, high reward.
Having said all that, Liz Cheney probably has a better shot of becoming President Harris’ Unity Ticket Veep done out of desperation than she does winning the Republican nomination in 2024.
Republicans are so, on a systemic level, unmoored from the traditional concepts of a party that is associated with a liberal democracy that there is no way in hell she could possibly win the Republican nomination. And if Trump bows out for some reason, Republicans are more likely to pick Gen. Mike Flynn as his successor than Liz Cheney.
Let that sink in.
But for anyone paying attention, things are kind of dark right now. Maybe a lot dark. Because all the macro trends point to The Fourth Turning taking place in, as predicted 2025. We’re so totally fucked. Totally, completely, fucked.
We have to stop getting mad on Twitter. Or making fun of the dumb things that the MAGA New Right says or does. Things have gotten serious and existential if you think of yourself as a small-d democrat.
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