How Seriously Should We Take ‘Texit?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While we’re slowly reaching a tipping point whereby Texas may be the first to leave the Union, I have serious doubts about it happening, like, NOW.


So, as such, the timing isn’t right for Texit. We need the passions of the 2024 election to enter the “Silly Season” before such things might become a reality. At the moment, all this Texit talk is just that — talk.

Get back to me when there is suddenly a man rush between Texas and South Carolina to see which one can hold the first Secession Convention. If such a thing happens, it will either be in late 2024 after Trump loses, or sometime in 2025 – 2026 should Tyrant Red King Trump be deposed somehow.

My Hot Take On A Majority Of Trump Voters Wanting To Secede From The United States


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My hot take on a majority of MAGA New Right voters wanting to secede from the the Union is that it’s solely the result of the quirk in history we’re now living through. If either Trump had been the autocrat people voted for in 2016 or had COVID not hit and Biden not been the nominee, those very same people would be the bedrock of a United America Party.

They would be the people who were thrilled that we’d just had a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention and liberals were, at last, owned.

But neither one of those things happened. Trump could not live up to his reputation as the “You’re Fired” Guy and the stars of politics and history aligned in just the right way so deny Trump the ability to rant his way into a stolen second term.

So here we are.

What should be happening – Trump, or someone like Trump, working swiftly to consolidate autocratic power — isn’t happening. This leaves people who want Trumplandia, the MAGA New Right cocksuckers, upset that they can’t turn the United States into a Russian clone immediately.

Also, I think some of what’s going on is that usual MAGA New Right bullshit where they take some ridiculous political position just to own the libs in the mainstream media. They like seeing talking heads on TV freaking out, so they say things they don’t really mean to get that result.

But I will say that the poll in question leans credence to my view that one, the United States is an autocracy without an autocrat and two, the country is far more politically unstable than you might believe.

All that would have to happen is something unexpected to put undue pressure on our political system and some pretty dramatic, unexpected things. Another thing — I still think it’s going to be Blue States that are pushed into a corner to such an extent that they decide to leave the Union in the late 2024 – early 2025 timeframe.

So, it will be Blue States who ultimately leave the Union, not Red States. I say this because all the macro trends favor Red States and when the time comes for some sort of civil war, I will be shocked if it’s not the Red States who get the USA “brand name.”

And even then, that’s really the absolute worst case scenario.

More likely than not, we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy, without people like me an Norm Ornstein getting all that upset about the change in our basic political system.

Or, put another way, for the time being, everything is still up in the air. It could go either way — autocracy or civil war.

‘Republican Secession Scenarios’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Since someone searched for that and found this blog, I will write about it. One thing is clear — Republicans have been such a steady flow of bullshit that they are primed and ready for a secession crisis should it ever occur.

But there would need to be a catalyst, something to spark MAGA state legistatures to begin to call secession conventions. I just don’t believe Republicans have it in them to rise up and start murdering liberals en mass. They’re all talk — or frustration. Trump is a coward and a joke when it comes such shit and even if he went transactional for some reason, he’s such a pantywaist that he would hide behind the “it’s not my fault” defense. He wouldn’t own any secession and run with it. (At least, not at first, unless it got some traction.)

Yet, as a I keep writing, there are a wide array of potential secession scenarios facing us. Most of them don’t really apply to 2021 but rather the 2024-2025 timeframe. In a sense, if there was a secession crisis now it would be a win for the forces of democracy because The Good Guys would control the military and it would be pretty clear for their to be a media narrative for the broader public as to what should happen.

It’s when you have the very murky situation surrounding a potential Congressional certification fight that all hell could break loose because it would be difficult for their to be any sort of clear understanding of who was in the right. (Which would be the whole point of MAGA balking at certifying a Biden win in the first place.)

The only secession crisis I can think up that would happen in 2021 would have something to do with Cyber Ninjas in Arizona “proving” that Trump “won” the state and that sets of a series of events whereby Trump goes transactional and MAGA states start to leave the Union immediately.

So, in general, unless something really unexpected happens, we should be ok until late 2024 and early 2025. Then, we’ll either have a civil war or turn into an autocracy.

Sydney Powell, Cyber Ninjas’ Arizona Recount & The Prospect Of Second Civil War Caused By A Nullification Crisis


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The bolts continue to grow loose on the United States’ government. We have professional crazy personal Sydney Powell ranting about how Trump should be “reinstated” at the same time that Cyber Ninjas continue to work towards what seems to be their obvious goal of “proving” Trump won Arizona.

Now, as I keep saying, what makes all of this unnerving is, at this point, it could go either way. It could be that I’m really stretching to believe that should Cyber Ninjas “prove” Trump won Arizona that that might be enough to get a number of MAGA state legislatures to convene conventions to weigh the practicality of “nullifying” the Biden Administration. These conventions could, in turn, become secession conventions once it becomes clear that ding-dong Trump’s ideas about nullification are, well, just stupid.

It could be all that happens is the Cyber Ninja results becoming nothing more than a talking point for MAGA thought leaders, but otherwise won’t mean anything at all. Republicans could just keep recounting various states over and over again and it won’t be until January 2025 that we have to worry about the real nullification crisis — this time sparked by a MAGA controlled Congress being unwilling to certify Biden’s win.

The only reason why I’m uneasy is it’s very easy to imagine the same dynamic that happened on January 6th happening again — only this time on a national level. Trump and other dipshit Republicans will rant about the need to nullify the Biden Administration — and then won’t know what to do when MAGA state legislatures take them both seriously and literally.

But, again, I could be really miscalculating things. It could be, thankfully, a big old dud. I honestly can’t tell what is going to happen right now.

Psychohistory, My Personal Dystopian Predictions For America & The Book ‘The Fourth Turning’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Apparently, Steve Bannon’s favorite book is The Fourth Turning, so some time ago I bought it to figure out if I could understand what made that motherfucker tick.

What I’ve read of it so far is quite good and — here’s the spooky thing — all the ranting I’ve been doing of late about how we’re fucked in about 2024-2025 is also found in The Fourth Turning. In fact, I keep reading the book and getting chills at how accurate I believe their predictions are relative to what I’ve come to assume to be true about our fate.

They aren’t perfect — the book was written in the 1990s — so they don’t get what’s going on right now perfectly right. I think the thing that happened that they could have have predicted is the election of a black president in 2008. They said that things would get fucked up about 2005. So I guess they weren’t too far off. But I’m a big believer in my own form of “psychohistory” in the sense that I think about macro trends a lot and it’s just that Obama was kind of a Great Man who sped up some problems in the country because his election scared the shit out of racists.

So here we are.

When the United States either buckles into civil war or becomes an autocratic “managed democracy” like they have in Russia it’s not going to be pretty. Either way, the entire world order will grow so destabilized that there might be a number of limited nuclear exchanges. If the United States isn’t there to keep India and Pakistan from blowing themselves up, for instance, that’s maybe 300 million dead right there (at least.) Then there’s China and Taiwan. The list goes on.

And, right now at least, our decent into either civil war or autocracy seems rather implacable. There’s nothing we can do to stop it. We can delay it, like we did in 2020 because of the pandemic and Trump being a complete fucking lazy idiot, but we can’t stop it. What The Fourth Turning does it give people like me some sort of underlining historical explanation for why we think what we think.

But let me be clear — there’s no reveled truth. No fate but what we make, as they say. Yet there are just too many things that are coming to a head for, essentially, WW3 not to happen in about four years. Too many Americans are tired of Empire and want to “bring the boys home” so we can become Fortress America and become a white Christian ethno state.

As I said, the issue is, how peaceful is our transition from liberal democracy into an autocracy? That’s pretty much the crux of our fate at this point from a prediction standpoint. There are specific things I simply can’t game out at this point. A lot will be decided which of the half dozen would-be autocrats wins the Republican nomination in 2024 and how popular they are with people who didn’t vote for Trump in 2020 or 2016.

I have a feeling the next autocrat is going to be a lot smoother and the siren call of autocracy will be far to strong in the end. I keep encountering too many people who are obviously autocrat-friendly who didn’t support Trump personally but obviously want some sort of autocratic rule.

In the end, of course, I’ll just be a minority of one if need be. I will never support any fucking autocracy. That’s never going to change, regardless of the year.

I Definitely Have The Creative White Hot Rage Necessary To Finish This Novel


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


This novel, from the beginning, has been powered by my center-of-the-sun rage over the Trump Era. Now that the fucker has been acquitted AGAIN by the Senate, all systems are go to throw myself into this novel.

I’m enraged by the fact that the United States is officially hurtling towards either a civil war / revolution or MAGA-based autocracy. We are now living in something akin to the American Weimar Republic. This is the calm before the storm. We’re going to be in political neutral for about two years. Once the Republicans win Congress back, then they’ll impeach Biden and plot how they’re going to steal the 2024 election.

If they manage to steal the 2024 election without bungling it, then we get an autocracy very, very quickly. If they bungle it, then we get a secession crisis, civil war, revolution, you name it.

These are macro forces at work. Something on a strategic level would have to change for this not to happen. The Singularity. First Contact. A limited nuclear exchange. That type of stuff.

Anyway, the emotional, mental and creative energy I need to finish this novel is back on line. I’m apoplectic that Democrats did not have the guts to at least TRY to get Trump convicted by calling additional witnesses. Ugh. Idiots.

But I guess I have to just throw myself into this novel as best I can. And also keep an eye on the exits — if I mange to sell this novel, I may use the funds to bounce to, say, Asia so I can drink BeerLao and watch as the nation I love is consumed by American Nazis.

What’s The Matter With Utah?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Got this mixed up, sorry — Ed.

It appears as though there’s something afoot in the state of Utah. Some sort of January 6th-style assault on the Utah Capitol Building is being planned. Maybe. I know I’m getting a lot of hits on this Website from Utah about my dystopian hellscape scenarios.

Whatever it is, it’s happening soon — January 11th.

This is the same day, I think, Trump is doing his “Remember the Alamo” speech in Texas about his dumb boarder fence. The question is, how well organize is this attack in Utah and what are its goals? My concern is that they may declare their independence or something. If they successfully take the Capitol, they may setup some sort of People’s Government that unilaterally leaves the Union and calls for other states to do the same. Throw in Trump egging other states on and you have a real secession crisis on your hands.

There have been a series of assaults against state houses over the last few months and if they could successfully take over one, that might be a tipping point. If there was significant bloodshed during the Monday assault, that would take things to the next level.

But it’s possible I’ve gotten my information garbled or incorrect. And, yet, it will be interesting to see how everything plays out. Monday could be pretty wild, indeed.

The Prospect Of A ‘MAGA Revolution,’ Reassessed


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have long suggested that any MAGA shithead cocksucker touting the idea of a “MAGA Revolution” was an idiot. And they are. They’re idiots for a number of reasons. One is, generally revolutions at least start off with a Leftist bent and also, well, any such “revolution” would likely be a civil war, not a revolution.

But, given the events of January 6th, let’s do a reassessment.

The only time I can think of that there was the prospect of a Right wing revolution was in the early days of the Nazi take over of Germany. The SA were a lot more radical than the the rest of the Nazi movement and they were quickly squashed with they got a little too uppity. The SA wanted a far more radical transformation of Germany life than Hitler was prepared to enact. So Nazism remained a somehow bland version of fascism for a lot longer than it might have otherwise. The really nasty parts didn’t pop out until a few years later.

As I understand it, it was the viciousness with which Hitler got rid of them that made people sit up and take notice that he was not the clown everyone thought he was.

So, is it possible there may be a “MAGA Revolution” sometime soon?

After January 6th, I have to say my answer is now a firm “maybe.”

The key to any such “revolution” would be Trump. If he really leaned into going transactional as he really began to lose his mind, then, yes, there might be significant rolling violence across the country that might be marketed as a “revolution.”

But the United States is a big, big country and the while things might get bloody and scary for a while, the moment Biden is in control of the U.S. Military, the dynamic of things changes rather dramatically. I guess the difference between a “revolution” and a “civil war” would be how much of any significant action on the part of MAGA had the thin veneer of legality to it and how much didn’t.

If it was a revolution, rather than a civil war, then at its onset, there would be some sort of SA / SS attacks on state capitals across the country. This, sadly, has already begun to happen. But, like I said, the United States is a big country both in geographic size and population, so while you probably could pull of a successful MAGA revolution in, say, North Dakota by simply seizing the a few cities, if you attempted any such “revolution” in a Southern state, all you would do is incite a race war.

Not that a lot of Turner Diaries reading Proud Boys wouldn’t want that, but a revolution, by definition, is even more radical than a civil war and a lot of conservative-but-not-MAGA people would likely blanch at the atrocities that MAGA “revolution” would entail from day one.

As such, what might happen is a combination civil war – revolution. In the sparsely populated Red States of the heartland, you might have secession, while in the South, you just have a regular old race war in conjunction with a “revolution.”

But all of that — at least for the time being — is rather dystopian even for me. A lot — maybe all of it — depends Trump. If he really and I mean REALLY loses his mind, then his followers may get their revolution – civil war sooner rather than later.

I still think it’s more likely to be closer to 2025.

So, as Mitt Romney would say we have to all “hold our breath” for a few more days to see which way things will go.

‘#ETTD’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America definitely has a Soviet Union in August 1991 vibe to it right now. If my Webstats are any indication, a lot of people across the country think — hope? — that we’re going to have some sort of Second American Civil War soon.

I generally don’t think that will happen now, but rather sometime in 2024-2025, but for one thing: Donald Trump. There are any number of different ways Trump could force the issue of a civil war as he attempts to stay in power. Now, we have to put this in perspective: Trump has done none of the prep work to do anything extra-political or extra-legal to stay in power. In other words — if he does stage a coup of some sort, it will be because he’s bonkers.

Also, if he makes any type of significant power grab, it would be, at last, a self-evident proof of what people like me have said about Trump all along: he’s a tyrant. To date, Trump has enjoyed a lot of negative-polarization support from conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA because they like his policies but don’t like him. They just don’t feel they have any option — they support Trump because of things like cancel culture which they think will destroy them for simply being conservative.

The great irony of the Trump Era is the context of the whole thing may change in its waning days if Trump pulls some sort of extra-political or extra-legal stunt in a one last death rattle. If Trump could just control himself, then the entire Trump Era would be value free to huge swaths of the American politic. We would snap back to the political assumptions of the late Obama Administration and that would be that.

But if Trump goes transactional on Twitter in some way and real people begin to get hurt then those conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA are going to, at last, have to face tyrannical behavior on Trump’s part that isn’t abstract. It can’t be dismissed as just Trump Derangement Syndrome. If Trump makes a power grab, it will be very difficult to say “both sides.”

Or, put another way, conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA are going to face an existential decision — are they MAGA or not? Are they willing to support a tyrant because they fear cancel culture or not? There will be some who will realize they’re MAGA after all. But enough conservative-but-not-MAGA people will, at last, get woke and join some sort of United Front against Trump at the very last moment that Trump is going to destroy himself politically at last.

Republicans Have Become The ‘Leopards Eating People’s Faces Party’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


It is becoming clear that Trump is no longer thinking in terms of politics but rather strictly in terms of self-preservation. As such, we’re careening towards a moment in time when Trump goes extra-legal and extra-political in his attempts to stay in power. There are a number of things that are concerning me about this.

The Defense Department
Trump keeps cramming the Defense Department with cronies. I’ve read somewhere that this may be an effort on the part of Trump to find out how much he could, in fact, get away with if push comes to shove. That’s really nerve wracking because what if Trump somehow manages to move the autocratic dial a little bit. Just a little bit would freak us all the fuck out.

Mike Pence
I’m growing concerned that on Jan. 6th Trump will goad Mike Pence to simply nullify the certification of Electoral College votes by not doing his job — or not doing it in a manner that follows the spirit of the law. Remember, the point of this would be to throw things to SCOTUS in such a partisan manner that they’re absolutely boxed into a up-or-down corner. Trump wants a replay of 2000 because he’s a craven ding-dong who’s actual political skill is little more than that of Chauncy Gardner in Being There. So, it’s very possible that there will be extreme, rancorous debate in Congress over the certification of votes, but in the end, Trump will lose. Even if Pence tries to be a spanner in the works.

Trump Going Transactional
This is a real wildcard. As it becomes more and more clear that Trump is, in fact, going to actually have to leave office, it’s possible that he stops “joking” and insinuating about violence against his enemies and flat out tells MAGA to murder liberals in cold blood. Or he could begin to demand Red States hold snap conventions so they secede. Pretty much anything is on the table once Trump finally snaps mentally.

‘Downfall’
This is probably my worse fear. If we get to this stage of things, then Trump really has lost his mind. This is a very dark situation, indeed. Everything from Trump blackmailing America by suddenly bringing up his ability to use nuclear weapons to him going the literal Hitler-in-the-bunker route would be possible under this scenario.

But there are some things to take into consideration. One is Trump is not nearly as well-put-together as we keep thinking and he’s so unstable and lazy that any transactional things he does may be so half-hearted and poorly thought out that they aren’t very successful.

Yet, we’ve now officially entered the most dangerous phase of the Trump Era. Anything could happen. We could all get the shit scared out of us before it’s over with. There will be no narrative, no value as it all happens.