Tag: Second American Revolution

The Narrative For A Trump Coup Attempt


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A Twitter thread by Bill Kristol finally gives me a handle on what Trump might do between now and, say, January 7th. It goes something like this.

The anniversary of the Soleimani assassination is Jan 3rd. It’s easy to imagine a situation where there’s some significant attack against Israeli and American interests in the Middle-East and Trump uses that to escalate things on the eve of the January 6th vote by Congress to certify the vote. That makes Trump a “war president.”

Next, the Proud Boys in D.C. for the Congressional certification freak the fuck out and start blowing shit up to the extent necessary to give Trump the excuse to use the Insurrection Act in D.C. In that context, he does something extra-political or extra-legal by pretty much just waving his hands about the details and doing something so he “wins” the election when Congress discusses the issue.

This would be a massive clusterfuck and I honestly don’t see how Trump would be successful. But such a sequence of events could, in itself, be the “political 9/11” I’ve been worried about and lead to a secession crisis and subsequent civil war.

Are We Going To Have A Civil War?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Short answer: No, probably not right now.
Long Answer: Yes, probably in a few years. Let me explain.

There’s one major issue whenever you try to game out a Second American Civil War and that’s Trump. On one hand, Trump has done everything in his power to destabilize the United States the last five years.

On the other hand — he’s just a ding-dong.

What I mean by that is, he was handed everything necessary to destroy the United States in a one-two punch…and he went golfing. So, for the time being, we’re an autocracy without an autocrat. If Trump really was some sort of American Putin, he would have thought six or seven steps in advance and goaded the Blue States into leaving the Union at some point, so he could destroy them and remake them in his own MAGA image.

But, to date, he’s not do anything like that.

Yet, this has not stopped a lot of people on both the Left and the Right to begin talking outloud about some sort of civil war. On the Right, it seems to be them grasping at abstract straws in desperation. They feel that because of cancel culture and various other faux controversies that they REALLY HATE liberals, so a civil war is the worst thing they can think up in that line of thought. But, to date, their rage against “libtards” has been exclusively been abstract. They just hate liberals, but don’t really have any concrete, specific things they are going to do to them in the real world.

So, for the time being, because we’re an autocracy without an autocrat, we’re going to be in a very surreal situation where all the conditions are there for a civil war of some sort…and nothing happens. We will drift for about two years then gradually things will reach a crescendo around 2023 – 2025 and some sort of secession crisis will happen and that will be that.

It seems as though because Trump is NOT the guy from The Apprentice in real life, that we’re going to punt this particular problem down the road a few years.

And, yet.

This is Trump we’re talking about.

So, it’s within the realm of possibility that starting around January 6th , Trump’s sense of self-preservation will grow so much stronger than any political considerations that he will attempt something extra-political or extra-legal and that, in itself, will be such a massive clusterfuck that Trump will destroy himself politically and redefine the entire Trump Era.

That, in itself, will punt America’s lurch into autocracy down the road not just one presidential cycle, but a generation. Just about then, of course, the youngest of the Baby Boomers will be dying off at last and so, who knows. But remember, this is not going to be some sort of liberal fever dream — for this to happen, it would need to be a “political 9/11” whereby Trump scares the shit out of all of us and takes a political pound of flesh.

Anyway. I can’t predict the future.

The Value Free Trump Era


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In the end, what will decide Trump’s fate will be, as always, Trump. If he can just behave for a few more weeks, he’s going to get away scot free with everything he’s done. Everything. There simply will be no political will do do anything about any of his crimes.

What’s more, he will be in a position to not only be a king maker in Republican Politics for the rest of his life, but come roaring back in 2024. There may even be talk of naming him Speaker of the House in 2023 when Republicans take over again.

But.

Trump is not the political genius that everyone –including me — has thought he was over the years. His actual political ability is little more than a grunt. While he is an avatar for the rot and rage in the American political system, that’s all he is. He doesn’t have any innate political leadership ability. So he pretty much just thrashes around, destroying things and being corrupt without any overall strategy.

As I’ve said before, we live in an autocracy without the autocrat. The only thing stopping the United States from being a Russian-style autocracy at this point is Donald Trump. That’s it. If there was virtually anyone else in his position right now, we would be an autocracy.

The most surreal point of all of this is Trump isn’t going to behave. He probably is going to do some dumb self-own move that redefines his era to such an extent that he destroys himself politically. Whatever extra-political or extra-legal thing he attempts, may finally, at last, give us the political will to do something about the Trump cancer.

But it will come at a cost.

He’s likely to extract a pound of political flesh from us along the way. It could be a war, or him going transactional on Twitter. Nothing is off the table. So, it’s not going to be some sort of liberal fever dream where Rachel Maddow becomes president.

Nope, it’s going to suck.

The Trump Era Can Be Value Free If Trump Just Behaves Himself


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Because Republicans have no shame, all Trump has to do to be in a decent position to make a come back in 2024 is simply behave. He just has to still keep political considerations in mind between now and January 20th. If he can just do that, he probably will remain a Republican Party king maker for at least a decade to come.

Yet, as we know, Trump is a willful child.

So, it’s fairly possible that Trump is going to attempt something extra-political or extra-legal in a desperate attempt to stay in office. He could do something so bad that for a bright, shining moment a lot of America will, at last, be on the same page about Trump: he’s gotta go.

I honestly don’t know what exactly he might do. But one thing is clear — it’s not like Trump has hidden his slide into insanity. He’s been quite open about it. He’s bonkers and there’s a decent chance that he’ll do something in the last few days (hours?) of his administration that redefines the whole five year experiment in political terror.

What, exactly, it might be, I don’t know.

But whatever it is, he will be doing it from a position of weakness. And there’s still a decent chance that after January 6th, he won’t have any hope anymore and he’ll finally flip the fuck out in a pretty massive fashion. He could grow extremely passive aggressive on Twitter. Or he could grow transactional.

Anything’s possible when someone’s lost their mind.

I guess only time will tell.

Second American Civil War In An Autocracy Without An Autocrat


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The explosion in Nashville seems to have been an attack on infrastructure, which is rather ominous. It definitely seem as though dark forces are aligning to strike at some point in the future if they don’t get what they want. Which, given what’s going on, seems like Trump Stays In Office.

And I continue to get a significant trickle to this site of people who think a Trump coup and or a Second American Civil War is imminent. All the conditions for such things to happen are there, but for one: Trump isn’t the autocrat people like me thought he was. He’s just an avatar for the rot and rage in the American political system — he has been successful to date by just being himself. He hasn’t had to show any political leadership on his own. He hasn’t forced the issue when necessary and he hasn’t done any and I mean ANY of the prep work to seize “total control.”

If Trump really was some sort of political genius, he would have struck months ago. He would have goaded the Blue States into secession, destroyed them and rebuilt them in his own image. And, then, we would be an autocracy. Then the fucking shithead fucktard cocksucker of MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party would have gotten what they wanted.

But, Trump’s not an autocrat.

So, everything is there for a coup, civil war and autocracy, but for someone to play the autocrat. If Trump does attempt some sort of coup at this point, it’s most likely going to be by going transactional on Twitter. And I still think that if a civil war happens in the United States it will be at some point between, say, 2022 and 2025. The radical forces in the American political system need to stew in their juices a few more years so they can organize better.

Thus, if Trump lashes out in the final days of his administration in an effort to stay in power, he may cause a serious setback to the effort to turn the United States into an autocracy in the coming years. The thing about Trump is you never know what to expect. He may just allow us to drift into a Biden Administration, or he may self-own in a pretty spectacular fashion.

Why A Trump Coup Attempt At This Point Would Be Quixotic


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a lot of talk about Trump staging a coup these days, so let’s go through different scenarios to see how successful they might be.

January 6th
This is yet another day in the inevitable march towards Biden becoming president that MAGA shithead cocksuckers think they can somehow magically prevent Biden from ever becoming president. There are a series of things Trump could do at this point. MAGA people in Congress will challenge the Electoral vote and obviously delay things for a few hours — maybe even 24 hours if they are big enough assholes. And there are plenty of really dark scenarios whereby Pence doesn’t do his job, or there’s violence in Congress itself or Trump goes transactional on Twitter as all of this is happening. But the fact remains — Trump has not done any prep work to pull of a successful coup. There were a multitude of autocratic things Trump COULD have done over the last four years so he was able to successful steal a second term…and he didn’t do any of them. So, even under the most favorable of coup conditions…all Trump does is just destroy himself politically and damage the MAGA movement for a few years.

Wag The Dog
Under this scenario, Trump effectively starts WW3, thinking he can pull a Constitutional fast one one us — while we’re distracted by a war with Iran or the DPRK (or both) he simply never leaves office. This is just silly. Of all the civil society institutions in the United States, I have the most faith in our military to Do The Right Thing when the time comes. Even if WW3 starts, when January 20th comes around, Trump is no longer POTUS. The US. Military was able to wage a massive, global two front war, I think they can handle both waging WW3 and getting rid of an asshole POTUS. But given how stupid Trump is, I can definitely see why he might think he could pull such a thing off.

Downfall
In this scenario, Trump loses his fucking mind (probably at some point after January 6th) and really leans into going transactional on Twitter. He tells his MAGA shithead cocksucker followers to blow shit up or attempt to secede from the Union or whatever in a last ditch effort to stay in power no matter what. He might even — gulp — go so far as to blackmail the United States because he still has control over our nuclear arsenal. Or he might grow really fucking passive aggressive on Twitter, suggesting “liberals want him to kill himself” or some such bullshit. But in the end, this, too, would be very dumb.

The key thing we have to appricate is at this point, Trump staging a coup would be more a symptom of him being bonkers than any sort of actual autocratic ability. So, in the end, he will probably scare the shit out of us all in some way and pretty much just destroy himself on his way out the door.

Why Trump Was Not ‘America’s Hitler’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now, before we begin, let me note that Trump “not being Hitler” isn’t what you might think — Trump’s not Hitler not because he’s not a deranged lunatic, but he’s so lazy and incompetent he can’t exploit the conditions that would otherwise MAKE him Hitler.

Let’s put it this way — the people who voted for Trump in 2016 were on a spectrum. There were people who wanted Trump to be America’s Hitler. There were also a lot of conservatives-who-weren’t-MAGA were given a permission structure to “come home” to the Republican Party when it counted: election day. In this sense, all things being equal, Trump was set to be an American Hitler — then he blew it.

What people like me saw in Trump was a Hitler-like character. We spun all these dark, dystopian scenarios where Trump would go full-autocrat on us and start off at Putin and endup at Hitler before it was all over with. Then we spent 4 years expecting Trump to do all these autocratic things…that he never did. Trump never did some basic Hitler-like actions that could have destroyed American democracy and taken us on the path towards some semblance of a Trumplandian-Nazi America. So, the case could be made that while Trump slice the seal of autocracy and tyranny, we may have dodged a bullet for the time being because of it was Trump, specifically, who was elected in 2016. If it had been anyone else, then they would have had the wherewithal to actually be an American Hitler.

The surreal thing is Trump, in a frantic attempt to stay in power, may change the entire context of the Trump Era. If Trump destroys himself politically by attempting to seize power through extra-political or extra-legal means, then it’s possible that he will so enrage Americans that for one, brief moment, we’ll be united it how much we all hate Trump.

Then, of course, we’ll descend into finger-pointing and recriminations. And, remember, the conditions that put Trump in the position to become an American Hitler will still be there, so it could be someone younger and more focused who ultimately does the deed.

But it definitely seems as though we’re careening towards some sort of “political 9/11” between now and January 20th. How exactly that will happen is anyone’s guess. Even if Trump attempted some sort of American Reichstag Fire in an effort to stay in power, it’s just too late. He’s done none of the hard work that Hitler would have done in Trump’s position.

So, in the end, it’s possible Trump might, just might, punt America’s lurch towards Nazi-style tyranny down the road a decade or so. But we’re not out of the woods yet. Anything can happen now MAGA has enjoyed power for four years.

‘#ETTD’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America definitely has a Soviet Union in August 1991 vibe to it right now. If my Webstats are any indication, a lot of people across the country think — hope? — that we’re going to have some sort of Second American Civil War soon.

I generally don’t think that will happen now, but rather sometime in 2024-2025, but for one thing: Donald Trump. There are any number of different ways Trump could force the issue of a civil war as he attempts to stay in power. Now, we have to put this in perspective: Trump has done none of the prep work to do anything extra-political or extra-legal to stay in power. In other words — if he does stage a coup of some sort, it will be because he’s bonkers.

Also, if he makes any type of significant power grab, it would be, at last, a self-evident proof of what people like me have said about Trump all along: he’s a tyrant. To date, Trump has enjoyed a lot of negative-polarization support from conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA because they like his policies but don’t like him. They just don’t feel they have any option — they support Trump because of things like cancel culture which they think will destroy them for simply being conservative.

The great irony of the Trump Era is the context of the whole thing may change in its waning days if Trump pulls some sort of extra-political or extra-legal stunt in a one last death rattle. If Trump could just control himself, then the entire Trump Era would be value free to huge swaths of the American politic. We would snap back to the political assumptions of the late Obama Administration and that would be that.

But if Trump goes transactional on Twitter in some way and real people begin to get hurt then those conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA are going to, at last, have to face tyrannical behavior on Trump’s part that isn’t abstract. It can’t be dismissed as just Trump Derangement Syndrome. If Trump makes a power grab, it will be very difficult to say “both sides.”

Or, put another way, conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA are going to face an existential decision — are they MAGA or not? Are they willing to support a tyrant because they fear cancel culture or not? There will be some who will realize they’re MAGA after all. But enough conservative-but-not-MAGA people will, at last, get woke and join some sort of United Front against Trump at the very last moment that Trump is going to destroy himself politically at last.

Trump’s Congressional Electoral College Nullification Gambit


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I doubt any effort to get Mike Pence to nullify the Electoral College votes in Congress will work, they’re likely to try. It’s possible that Pence might simply refuse to be on TV announcing that Trump has lost. As such, it’s my impression that the certification of votes by state governors will work if Pence isn’t willing to do his job.

But him doing this would be so destabilizing that there could be significant political violence. It seems to me that the goal of such a gambit would be to box SCOTUS into a up or down partisan vote. House Trump believes its best bet for success is to force a situation whereby SCOTUS decides the election like they did in 2000.

The disturbing thing about this gambit for me is not so much that it will work as it is what happens when it doesn’t. Right now, Trump has hope that he might steal the election — which he could have done very easily if he had done any autocratic prep work instead of playing golf — and when he doesn’t have that hope anymore, he may YOLO it.

As such, for about two weeks, Trump could be totally unhinged as it begins to sink in that he will, in fact, have to leave office.

So if we manage to get past a Pence Coup on Jan 6th, we have to deal with Trump decompensating and maybe even blackmailing the United States with his near-absolute ability to launch nuclear weapons.

‘Downfall’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I feel I have a certain insight into Trump’s mind because he reminds me a great deal of my late mother — if you added testosterone and a wealthy Queens upbringing.

Anyway, the thing I learned from my mother’s behavior is people like Trump have a certain power from their instability. You just never know how they’re going to react to something. Are they going to flip out or are they going to take it calmly like a normal human being.

Having said that, there’s an element of Trump’s mentality that we’ve been kind of eyes wide shut about. Let’s call it the “Downfall” endgame. In this scenario, Trump’s mind falls into a logic trap and he snaps mentally. It would be at this point that he scares the shit out all of us.

So, let’s say his last-ditch effort to overturn the election fails on Jan 6th. He has about two weeks to wreak havoc. He could go transactional on Twitter in any number of different ways. He would demand MAGA murder liberals in cold blood. He could demand secessionist conventions in Red States. Or, things could get far, far darker.

He might start to get really, really passive aggressive on Twitter. To the extent that he starts talking about his ability to launch nuclear weapons and how he’s “protecting America” by being in office. If that wasn’t enough to scare the shit out of everyone, he might start to whine about how everyone hates him and liberals would be happy if he was dead.

I’m not joking — this is a real possibility.

This brings up the idea that Trump could very well hold up in the White House and refuse to leave. While a lot of Twitter liberals seem to express a certain glee at this prospect, in reality having to coax Trump out of the White House isn’t exactly something I would like to see the country have to go through.

But it gets worse.

What if, by that point, he’s so far gone that he goes the Downfall route. The implications of this would be staggering. It would be his final selfish act. Because it would be something that would-be Patriot Party people could hang an ideological agenda on.

Trunp-as-martyr would scramble our politics for a generation.

And, yet, that scenario is so fucking dark that I don’t like to think about it for no other reason than in the end Trump is a physical coward and for him to do something so drastic would mean he REALLY had lost his mind.

Anyway, he’s something I wrote about trying to get Trump out of the White House a few years ago.

9/10ths
a story fragment of a possible near future
by Shelton Bumgarner

April, 2019

The eyes of the world were on the White House.

Just moments before, President Donald J. Trump, 45th president of the United States, had been convicted by 67 members of the Senate for a whole list of high crimes and misdemeanors. Trump had for weeks now been ranting on Gab about his case in the Senate, bouncing back and forth between threats to start a war with Iran or the DPRK and not-so-subtle hints that he might take his own life should he be convicted by the Senate.

And, now, at last, the moment of truth had arrived.

Trump legally, at least, was no longer president, but he had been oddly silent since the verdict had been announced with great fanfare from the well of the Senate. Trump’s conviction had come after months of investigations on the part of the now Democratic Congress. The length and breath of Trump’s malfeasance discovered by these hearings had rocked the nation to its very core. On more than one occasion, MAGA talking heads on cable news had been interrupted by astonishing breaking news that left them, for once, unable or unwilling to defend the president.

The hearings had ground on for months to such an extent that Trump’s approval had slowly drifted to the 20s and stayed there consistently. Trump’s support was now made up of the very rich and the very poor. Oddly, despite Trump’s near constant demands on Twitter for violence on the part of his supporters, little, if any was reported. Trump had grown so frustrated that he had all but abandoned Twitter at one point for the more receptive Gab social media platform. Though on more than one occasion Rudy Giuliani had made it very clear it was within the rights of the president to declare martial law if he deemed it in the best interests of the nation. More than one delegation of Senate Republicans had gone to the White House to explain to Trump that he was going to be convicted, no avail. Trump made it clear to them, in not so many words that his simply living in the White House made him president, a sentiment best expressed by the legal saw that, “Possession is 9/10ths of the law.”

Finally, a post to Gab came out: “My so-called ‘conviction’ is the work of the Deep State and as such illegitimate. I remain president.”

This set off a chain of events, the likes of which Americans had never seen. Suddenly, everyone on Twitter became a Constitutional scholar as everyone studied the exact wording of the Constitution as to what happens if the president is removed from office by the Senate. The wording is quite clear: he or she is no longer president and that’s it.

Nowhere in the Constitution did it explain what to do if the president simply decided to ignore the Senate. What’s more, nowhere in the Constitution did it state what to do with the nuclear launch codes should a president be removed from office and he refuse to accept the decision of the Senate.

The next few hours were chilling as they were surreal for millions of people not just in the United States but around the globe. The issue of Trump’s physical access to America’s nuclear launch codes was suddenly at the forefront of everyone’s mind. Though it was finally announced that while the nuclear football remained in Trump’s possession, Sec. of Defense Mattis had ordered the American armed forces to stand down for the duration of the crisis.

Trump, on Twitter, was as defiant and unhinged as usual.He threatened to kill himself. He threatened to start a nuclear war. He vowed to declare martial law.

The usual suspects on cable news did their best to spin all of this for Trump. As an anxious nation waited for the now former president to leave the White House, a cavalcade of former Republican Senators and Trump White House staffers attempted to make the former president’s case. Their final argument was that for the good of the country, Trump should be allowed to remain president, despite his lawful conviction by the Senate.

Things began to move rapidly at this point.

Vice President Pence was sworn in but Chief Justice Roberts in a dark, somber event in the Old Executive Building. Meanwhile, it was learned Trump had quietly replaced his Secret Service detail with a private security force that made it clear it was prepared to defend Trump until the bloody end.

At this point, two things happened. A final bipartisan delegation of Congressional leaders came to the White House grounds under the flag of truce. During the course of an hour-long meeting, Trump screamed at them that they had never supported him and the world would be better off if it just ended instead of allowed the forces of the Deep State to ruin America. He made it absolutely clear that he would never leave the Oval Office willingly.

With that, they left.

Next, a surreal, bizarre event, the FBI slowly began to surround the White House. There was much debate online and on TV about how long the nation should wait for Trump to leave the White House. CNN went so far as to do a deep dive into the exact amount of food the White House grounds might have available at any one moment.

Finally, shots rang out from the White House as the battle was joined. It took several hours but in the end, the FBI was finally able to secure the facility. Nearly a dozen personnel on both sides died during the course of the Battle of The White House.

In what would become ionic footage, Trump was quietly escorted from the White House grounds. He spent the remainder of his days ranting on Twitter and Gab that he was the rightful president.

The End.